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Charlotte Swasey

@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
818 followers 128 following 422 posts

Data witch for good causes and bad datasets

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 4h
New from Searchlight: Voters have a mix of liberal and conservative views, but it's not that they're confused about how issues line up ideologically. You can't fool them about the ideological lean of your policy ideas. www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/vot...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I wrote about the (bad!!!) state of polling for The Argument, and some things I think we can do about it (please god stop posting random polling numbers with no context.) www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-ha...
theargumentmag.com
Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds
I'm a pollster and this is getting ridiculous.
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Searchlight Institute @searchlightinst.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Essentially, every single poll silently bakes in the pollster’s assumptions about who will show up on Election Day." Searchlight's @charlotteeffect.bsky.social writes in The Argument about how the line between polling and election forecasting has blurred. www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-ha...
theargumentmag.com
Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds
I'm a pollster and this is getting ridiculous.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
You had questions, I have answers!
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Searchlight Institute @searchlightinst.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
We hope you've enjoyed taking and sharing our Political Neighborhoods Quiz! @charlotteeffect.bsky.social sat down to react to your results, thoughts, and questions. What neighborhood did you get?
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I absolutely promise you we've been saying this from the start, since I can screenshot this out of the mission statement we put up on day one. Just because people are finally getting what we've been saying doesn't mean we haven't been saying it!
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Searchlight Institute @searchlightinst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
It's a beautiful day in the political neighborhood — all nine of them. From the Liberal Arts Left to Cul-de-Sac Conservatives, Lawn Sign Liberals to the Center Square. What kind of neighbor are you? Take the quiz! www.searchlightinstitute.org/political-ne...
searchlightinstitute.org
What’s Your Political Neighborhood?
Answer 16 quick either/or questions about the role of government. There are no right answers, so pick whichever side you lean toward, even if only a little.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Here's mine (I literally made this quiz and I'm still a little surprised)
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Find out what political neighborhood you're in! The quiz is short, fun, and I am desperately curious what everyone's results are www.searchlightinstitute.org/political-ne...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I talk a lot about "heterodoxy", but what does that mean? Well, this, it means this! In collaboration with the NYT, I've got some new data out today www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Maybe I should be more personally excited about these candidates, but I'm really not, they all seem entirely adequate (and that's probably enough this year)
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I'm optimistic about the Senate, but I don't buy this uptick in NE polling. Trying to estimate ticket splitting is hard, and trying to do it with an independent candidate is more hard. Plus, this poll is a bit out of step with the rest.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I'm in the NYT on the midterms again. I know this looks like a dramatic swing but it's really a handful of seats moving a couple points, no need to panic. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
it's often easier to see why something is a bad idea, electorally, when it is a Republican doing it and not a Democrat
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Rob Sand is absolutely doing our approach, thank you very much.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Lads, my library hold on The Dark Forest came in early. This is not what I wanted to follow Book of the New Sun with, there may be a break for some trash in between before I start it.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Many houses look like they're lawful good but they're a secret other thing (doorbell that hasn't worked in 10 years)
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The recent claims that the IRA gave Harris 2.5 million votes just don't pass basic sanity checks. As the kids say, the math isn't mathing. www.wordsinsearchlight.org/p/this-is-no...
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Kent Lind @camasonian.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
We have data on this. The blue is all the non-ag human use:
Colorado River usage chart
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
It also incentivizes nationalizing your race. Getting big on social media for being a fighter can be huge for your fundraising, even if it makes no sense for your district. This is how we get Amy McGrath levels of money set on fire in long shot races.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
It's messy- people seem to love the aesthetics of being funded by small donors, but hate the cost (it's *super expensive to do*, here's Platners spending). Personally I'd rather dispense with the hype and cope with less money
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Time is a flat circle and older people still watch a lot of traditional TV
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The voters have joined the war on Christmas on the side of Christmas?
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
It turns out talking like a combo of Sephiroth and the villain from a children's cartoon doesn't make voters feel better about your product www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/ame...
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
This isn't a meaningful claim! What actually happens in a month is something like ~1.1 million men get new jobs, ~1.1 million women get new jobs, ~ million men lose jobs and ~1 million women lose jobs.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Voters in general elections are different, demographically, from voters in primaries. But they also have different preferences on issues. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/primary-an...
cauldronllc.substack.com
Primary and General Electorates Are Very Different
A not so gentle reminder as we move into general election season
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Primary elections and general elections are different and here's some charts to help remind you of that open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com
Primary and General Electorates Are Very Different
A not so gentle reminder as we move into general election season
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Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Language matters and if you use "steal election" to mean "spent a lot of money" then you are going to have trouble when elections actually get stolen.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Doing some extremely preliminary poking at the MI results and the biggest factor seems to be education (although MASSIVE caveat that country demographics dont always match primary electorate demographics!)
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Hmmmmmmm
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Depending on how this lands, it'll be an interesting example of the gap between online and offline. Twitter/bsky users are not the primary electorate!
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Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
it's entirely a social media thing but people who polarize themselves into thinking that data analytics are trying to fool you is a bad thing imo
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I'm lucky enough to work with David Bowen who worked on the ACA, smart dude who knows many things about how to actually do healthcare reform. His new piece is worth a read open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
open.substack.com
What we mean by ‘health care unity’
A new plan for pragmatic and progressive health care reform
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
COME ON MAN THAT WASN'T A FOUL
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
They should have made this halftime show just Shakira and the muppets
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The underlying paper here - whose methods I think are quite dubious and show implausibly large effects - still shows climate as way less persuasive than talking about costs and health care and the economy.
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Last night was the deadline for quarterly FEC filings, including from the Platner campaign, so I dug into their spending. Most of it went to 2 firms- Helix Campaigns and LC Media open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I'm in the NYT today with a group of experts writing about my projections for the midterms! Tldr yes of course Democrats are going win the house www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Got a copy of Sublimation from a local bookstore and convinced the person at the register to go read Kim's short stories (probably), successful shopping trip
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Zeteo @zeteo.com · 09/07/2026
‘A First-of-Its-Kind’ Poll About Medicare for All A centrist think tank offered to conduct an exclusive poll for Zeteo to gauge Americans’ attitudes about Medicare for All. Here’s what we found: zeteo.com/p/medicare-f...
zeteo.com
‘A First-of-Its-Kind’ Poll About Medicare for All
A centrist think tank offered to conduct an exclusive poll for Zeteo to gauge Americans’ attitudes about Medicare for All. Here’s what we found.
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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
"They’re also preemptively blaming the party for a general election loss, as if 'losing to a highly successful Republican incumbent after your primary dissolved into chaos' is a fun situation the Maine Party chose on purpose."
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Alex Lundry @alexlundry.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
This morning @pollvault.bsky.social found a rare but well done survey that really raises the stakes on consumer confidence: The Meat Demand Monitor www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/07/08/d... (cc: @aedwardslevy.bsky.social )
oklahomafarmreport.com
Dr. Glynn Tonsor: June Meat Demand Monitor Shows Signs of Improving Consumer Confidence - Oklahoma Farm Report
In today’s Beef Buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays features comments from Kansas State University agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor about the June Meat Demand Monitor, a monthly survey...
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The shadow of the 2016 primary hangs over every election since, and I am extremely tired of it. We should try having a different argument for once. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/platner-be...
cauldronllc.substack.com
Platner, Bernie, and a hangover
Free us from the forever 2016 primary
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 09/07/2026
Platner: "We're suspending campaign operations" Video here: x.com/grahamformai...
x.com
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
This sucks man. Grasping at straws to avoid acknowledging that the dude is a creep.
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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
what a fucking asshole
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I barely have opinions on the potential replacements for Platner, but everyone should be asking them if they're willing to make a full break from him and the people who elevated him. A replacement candidate unwilling to denounce him would be an electoral disaster.
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
are any of the 'ohhh sorry is REAL PERSON too much for you apple polishing hall monitor HR ladies' types gonna exhibit any contrition or reflection that the guy with the very obvious red flags did in fact turn out to have extremely serious weaknesses as a candidate?
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
This graph is super misleading- OF COURSE democratic vote share is higher when the ratio of D to R voters is higher. The second graph uses *average ideological midpoint* between the two parties, not D ideology, and so shows Dems do better when the *midpoint* between the parties is more left.
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