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Ceci

@cecil2014.bsky.social
133 followers 307 following 130 posts

Let's wait and see...Jan 2025 How it's going for your? Jul 2025

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Reposted by Ceci
John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
NHC 2 pm Tue post on #Invest92L indicates a 100% chance of development. More modeling (for what it's worth these days) points to rapid intensification into the season's 1st hurricane, fed by all-time hottest Gulf water temperatures made 300x-800x more likely by climate change. (@climatecentral.org)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become the Atlantic season's first hurricane.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The oligarchy is dripping in toxic petro-masculinity 🤢 www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/u...
nytimes.com
Do D.E.I. Bike Paths Exist? The Trump Administration Says Yes. (Gift Article)
The administration has revoked funding for bike paths, and encouraged removing some. A cycling advocate said it is playing on the idea of “that dork on a bike.”
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Is your weather app worse than it’s ever been? I know why, and talked about it tonight on Civil Discourse with @joycewhitevance.bsky.social
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Remember Paris?: “The world has failed in its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the United Nations said.” Now, “dangerous and catastrophic climate change is here.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/c...
nytimes.com
U.N. Says World Will Miss Its 1.5-Degree Climate Target (Gift Article)
It proposed a new goal of limiting the “overshoot” of rising temperatures and eventually figuring out how to undo the temperature gains, a highly uncertain path.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Let's gooooo! ☔
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Total accumulated rainfall projected by NWS ensemble modeling has increased with the passage of the vigorous remnant of tropical storm Dolly, with up to 2.5 inches (60 mm) in the Rio Grande de Loíza watershed (where the Carraízo dam is located).
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
There will be a partial eclipse of the Moon overnight. Best viewing will be just before midnight (Eastern & Atlantic time zones) through 12:30 around maximum eclipse when 96% of the moon will be in Earth's umbra, leaving a sliver of bright white moonlight reflecting back to Earth.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Now that Tropical Storm Dolly has dissipated, let’s focus on how much rain its remnants might bring. Ensemble modeling from NWS indicates approximately 1 inch (25 mm) for the Río Grande de Loíza watershed (where the Carraízo reservoir is located), and others. (2nd graphic from @wxmanms1.bsky.social)
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Reposted by Ceci
John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
This depression or storm is expected to form today. However, I anticipate a short-lived system. Conditions in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean will become hostile to the survival of any tropical cyclone starting tomorrow, Friday. I remain hopeful that its remnants might bring rain to the islands.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
For Puerto Rico and USVI to get rain from #Invest96L, it would need to avoid strengthening—or strengthen and then be broken apart by wind shear and dry air. As for a major storm event for Puerto Rico, this system doesn't look like a likely candidate 🙌🥳🎉. Stay tuned as peak season approaches.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The hope is that both systems (Invest92L, center, and Invest94L, right) will pass over the Antilles, including Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic, and retain enough moisture to generate rainfall. Tropical disturbances are part of the annual precip budget in the islands. None expected to be strong.
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Ceci @cecil2014.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Gracias por la información.
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Reposted by Ceci
John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Not much to update since my Sunday post. A stronger system would likely veer northward, while a weaker one would follow a Caribbean path. This second scenario is what is needed to see more ☔️ from Sunday into Monday in PR & DR. (graphics courtesy of @michaelrlowry.bsky.social and NHC)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Number of days with low temperatures below 40 °F in #Miami during the last 50 years (1977-2026) is 4️⃣3️⃣ versus 9️⃣0️⃣ days in the previous 50 years (1927-1976). There's a good chance we'll add 2️⃣ such cold days this Sunday and Monday per @nws.noaa.gov.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
My biggest takeaways from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/11/2025
“A promise of a vote on healthcare” is nothing
An end to the shutdown is in sight. A senior Dem Senator tells me there will be more than enough Democrats to vote in favor of re-opening the government tonight.  They’ll get a promise of a vote on health care — but nothing more.  Most of the Democratic leadership will likely vote against it.
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Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Breaking: Abigail Spanberger wins Virginia Governor race, flipping the seat from red to blue. (Source: @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social)
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Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Breaking: Ghazala Hashmi wins Virginia Lieutenant Governor race, flipping the seat from red to blue. (Source: @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social)
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Sam Schwartz @samuelschwartz.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Abigail Spanberger just kicked off the blue wave!! Huge Democratic flip!
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Thank you @cleoinstitute.bsky.social for the Circle of Change Award: “At a time when climate coverage faces unprecedented political pressure and censorship, John and the…team of @nbcmiami.com & Telemundo 51 continue to lead with science-driven facts and courage.” www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/j...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
The first earlier standard time #sunrise over Biscayne Bay was nice. (end of #daylightsavingtime)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Same, same. “Forty years later, when I look at satellite imagery and other data on hurricanes and extreme weather, I often cannot believe my eyes. Most of these mind-boggling events have a potential link to climate change.” 🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Hurricane Melissa Maxed Out What Scientists Thought Was Possible
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
"Extreme weather events fueled by climate change are increasing and making me change. I’ve always been authentic [...] but I can no longer be non-alarmist. People need to realize that this is not going to stop until we cut down on greenhouse gas [emissions]." @msnbc.com www.msnbc.com/ana-cabrera-...
msnbc.com
Meteorologist becomes emotional reporting on strength of Hurricane Melissa
Hurricane Melissa is slamming into Cuba and taking aim at the Bahamas after devastating Jamaica. MSNBC Climate Reporter Moses Small has our latest forecast and WTVJ Meteorologist Hurricane Specialist ...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
At NBC 6 since 4 am and until Melissa’s landfall this morning. Impacts in Jamaica are increasing as their strongest hurricane on record approaches. Winds 175 mph (280 km/hr) with gust factor of 1.5x➕ speeded up by hills & mountains. 13 ft (4 m) storm surge. 30-40 inches (1000 mm) storm total precip
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
"This is going to be the worst disaster in the history of #Jamaica. And what I’m worried about is the long term, the lasting effects of the hurricane upon their region." As seen earlier on @camanpour.bsky.social @cnnipr.bsky.social and today on @pbs.org 📺 www.cnn.com/2025/10/28/t...
cnn.com
‘Hurricanes don’t just take lives, they ruin lives’: Meteorologist reacts to Melissa | CNN
John Morales, meteorologist for ClimData, speaks with Bianna Golodryga about Hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm ever to hit Jamaica.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
During Melissa’s rapid intensification the storm drifted slowly over exceptionally warm ocean waters that were 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than average — these conditions were made up to 700 times more likely because of human-caused climate change. (via @climatecentral.org) 1/2
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
"The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall." These men and women are not being paid due to the US government shutdown. Not to mention that according to AOML's director emeritus Robert Atlas, they are down 40-50% staff. #Melissa
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Pressure down to 908 millibars, making #Melissa already the 11th strongest #hurricane on record in the Atlantic. It is still strengthening. Next on the list are Mitch (1998) and Dean (2007) at 905 mb. Sustained winds are up to 165 mph (270 km/hr). Topography can accelerate 1.5x✚
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Doing this on a moonless night can't be fun. Pressure dropping precipitously, which will lead to continued strengthening. #Melissa is shooting for Category 5 intensity—third in Atlantic this year! It's likely to reach it. All signs point to a landfall in #Jamaica very early Tuesday. #HurricaneAlert
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
"Needless to say there is a very serious situation in terms of catastrophic rainfall wind and storm surge hazards for Jamaica and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area" NHC explicitly calling for #Melissa to be a Cat 5 #hurricane on approach to #Jamaica (img @bmcnoldy.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Over the past 21 hours Hurricane #Melissa has undergone rapid intensification (RI). Nearly 80% of major hurricanes go through RI cycles to attain their devastating intensities. In the case of this cyclone, I believe we'll see Extreme RI with a gain of 58 mph or more in 24 hours. #Jamaica
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Category 4 🚨 Major Hurricane Melissa 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 Location: 16.3°N 76.3°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 140 mph (image via @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
I'm awaiting the official declaration that Melissa is a hurricane. The satellite image shows an initial slow trend for a west motion. But clouds still extend across most of Hispaniola with rain (under the brightest clouds) still near the Dominican Republic. Over 20" of rain has fallen. #Melissa
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Melissa suddenly has acquired that look. No sooner did the hostile wind shear relax than the first rapid intensification cycle began. I fully expect +35 mph or more in 24 hours going back to 11 am. Water temperatures are top 3 hottest ever recorded. Yet another Cat 4-5 forming. #Melissa
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Thu 4 pm: The first rain gauge exceeding 300 millimeters of rain caused by #Melissa (starting Tuesday) is WeatherFlow station (Tempest instrument) no. 132600 located in Santo Domingo near Avenida Independencia in Jardines del Sur. Total 305.4mm = 12.02". Excessive rain will continue.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
“It’s not out of the question that three feet of rain could accumulate before it’s all said and done.” #Melissa www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...
nbcmiami.com
Tropical Storm Melissa, expected to rapidly intensify, and its worrying impacts: John Morales
Melissa’s menace to the Greater Antilles is growing.
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Christopher Webb @cwebbonline.com · 24/10/2025
They don’t GAF about the Constitution, and they’ll do whatever it takes to keep Trump breathing long enough to seize a third term. So when you start thinking your vote doesn’t matter, remember this: they know it does. That’s why they’re trying to take it from you. This isn’t going to end well.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Thanks to @burgwx.bsky.social this image contains all tracks from last night’s model ensembles (both physical and AI) for newly formed #Melissa. Any track along or to the right of the mean (black line) spells days of excessive rain and life threatening floods in Haiti and parts of the Dominican Rep.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The models that don't are the Canadian (CMC), the German (ICON), and the European (ECMWF). If this were far away and there was more time to evaluate, I wouldn't have raised alarm so soon. But if #Melissa hits Haiti or the Dominican Republic, we're talking about Thursday! 2/2 fin #98L
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Uncertainty is high, but with only two to three days to prepare we must consider the potential for a tropical cyclone hitting Hispaniola this week. Sixty percent of models this morning indicate this. See DeepMind AI (FNV3), American GFS, European AI (AIFS), and US Navy. 1/
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Tropical Wave Invest #98L reached Windward Islands Sunday. A tropical depression is likely by midweek. Half of the forecast models continue west into western Caribbean. The other half forecast a tropical storm or hurricane in Hispaniola no earlier than Wednesday, or well after. Uncertainty very high
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
"Our government seeks to roll back the clock to a time when wild places had no defense against greed and the people had no voice to answer special interests. Do not acquiesce to the flouting of laws. History is keeping score." — @evesamples.bsky.social 🎁🔗 www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-e...
miamiherald.com
The rule of law is under attack in the Everglades. We’re fighting back | Opinion
A new threat to the Everglades echoes a 1960s environmental fight. | Opinion
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to see it does it make a sound? #Lorenzo
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
#Karen formed farther north & east than any other named storm on record. "[It] had been traversing waters running just under 2 °F warmer than normal, a condition made 4 times more likely by climate change according to @climatecentral.org Ocean Climate Shift Index." www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
"At a time when #climate coverage faces unprecedented political pressure & censorship, John and the duopoly team of @nbcmiami.com & @telemundo51.com continue to lead with science-driven facts and courage. Climate courage matters...” Congrats to all my colleagues 🎉 www.nbcmiami.com/weather/stor...
nbcmiami.com
NBC 6 First Alert team to receive Circle of Change Award
It’s the organization’s highest recognition for courageous, values-driven climate leadership.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Tonight's full moon is the first supermoon this year, when the moon is at the point in its orbit that is closest to Earth, known as perigee. It will look a little bigger and 16% brighter, especially near moonrise around sunset. (via @rtphokie.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Bandaid 🩹 adaptation seen this morning to keep this Coconut Grove (Miami) street free of sunny day saltwater #flooding. #KingTides are inundating more of South Florida due to sea level rise. How do we transition from bandaids to stitches? It’ll take lots of 💸. Or moving 🚛 .
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
It can be very difficult for an African easterly wave to cross the Atlantic without turning before the Caribbean. The model consensus for new Invest 95L is for that to happen. Still worth monitoring for any changes. But it shouldn't raise too much concern at this time. (models ➡️ @burgwx.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
"Why doesn’t #Florida [...] build better like #Bermuda? You can ask developers and their building lobby. Or you can ask the city, county, and state leaders that are charged with regulating them in the interest of our safety." My view of #Imelda for @nbcmiami.com www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...
nbcmiami.com
Morales: 2 new areas of interest in the tropics after Bermuda withstands Imelda
NBC6 hurricane specialist John Morales looks at how Bermuda was able to withstand Hurricane Imedla and what’s next for hurricane season.
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