Reposted by Richard DixonDaniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 9hWading into the "relative versus absolute" El Niño intensity debate: I genuinely think both are important--and I think we lose important information if we focus solely on one vs another. And both, as of late Sep, have now reached or exceeded record levels! [Thread] 219752
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 8hTop 5 "most read" articles on your super soaraway Daily Express right now. Churning out absolute nonsense. 043
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 22hI see the winter season of Trashy Media Not Really Understanding Longer Range Forecast Likelihood has begun 111
Reposted by Richard DixonJ Mark Dodds FRSA @jmarkdodds.bsky.social · 28/09/2026SPEAKING of @camraofficial.bsky.social and beer fans' success against big corporate - you'll be interested to see how social data scientist @laurenleek.eu exposed the #GreatBritishPubcoScam masterfully The data don't lie: BEER NEEDS PUBS laurenleek.substack.com/p/britain-lo...laurenleek.substack.comBritain Lost 14,000 Third Places. They Were Called Pubs. Is Your Local Next?How private equity reshaped the local and the postcode tool that shows the pubs most at risk. 012
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 28/09/2026I'm lowering my expectations to 25c from 30c and there's still hope... 000
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Just checking in to see if anyone else is struggling to access the OISST data through NOAA? (e.g. downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noa...) ?downloads.psl.noaa.gov 110
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 26/09/2026SST / low vertical shear / humid mid-troposphere components of cyclogenesis and when they co-exist for Atlantic & Pacific cumulatively since Jun 1 compared to history. Amongst other things it shows how conditions have come together nicely for Hawaii (and upwind of it) since Jun 1 in the mean. 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Not sure I need to bother saying any more but one last word on 2026 v 1976: looking at the average daily Central England Temperature difference between the two years as a whole, we've settled on 1976 being about 2c warmer, as it stands near the end of September. 000
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 24/09/2026An E Pac / N Atl view of how conditions for tropical cyclogenesis this summer compare to prior 30 yrs: El Nino footprint very much there. Shear has destroyed the MDR, but that slice of the E Pac close to Hawaii has been ripe: hence two, soon to be an unprecedented (?) three storms in the vicinity. 021
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 21/09/2026@zekehausfather.com Had a random question - in the seasonal forecast data that's used on the website - had you ever thought to include the once-every-3-months yearly forecast that ECMWF do? Would only be relevant 1-in-every-3 months, but thought it would be great to see included. 000
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Fantastic having so much data on @zekehausfather.com's ENSO website for creation of charts. This shows current ENSO forecasts in historical event context highlighting those in red that are more closely aligned with current ENSO values. Suggests the outlandish 4+ RONI values maybe off the table? 012
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 20/09/2026As much as I hate Microsoft products, this has been quite cathartic for me: 140
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 20/09/2026ECMWF Sept winter forecast for Europe shows first half / second half increased / decreased extra-tropical activity, respectively as given here by an over-land storm-severity index by territory. Much in line with the broad signal for El Nino-dominated winters. Signal looks quite strong for 2nd half. 020
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 18/09/2026You know it's quiet when 25% of my feed is "On this day in 19VV, hurricane W hit X with Y consequences that would cost Z today". 040
Reposted by Richard DixonProf Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Remind me again why we think very high emissions scenarios can be ruled out? 65719
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Is everyone now using RONI or do some still use ONI? It's hard to tell from some plots when a slew of charts appear. If you're using ONI as it gives more dramatic numbers for the clicks - heck, just use RONI and quote your anomalies in Fahrenheit. 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026It's that time of year again where nature is calling a halt to summer - hundreds of migrating swallows here in Deal in the very far east of England. 030
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026And finally - a Hovmoller plot showing population-weighted days with temperatures >25c in the UK. Can see how the "summer days" start to edge more into September but also the curious May warmth of the 1930s-1950s. 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026And as for May's hot spell: using population-weighting, it was 3c (yes, 3c) warmer than any other May day in history: 30.4 versus May 1947's 27.4. It is interesting however how 1944/47/53 had some notably hot spring days. 011
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026An in addition to this, here's the top 20 hottest population-weighted days in the UK since 1930. 2026 added 8 (yes, 8) new entries to the Top 20 - from three separate hot spells in June (4 days), July (2 days) and August (2 days). 2026 days in this chart highlighted in the dark grey. 031
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026In 2026, each person in the UK on average experienced almost 12 days of temperatures >30c. To put this summer in context, the oft-quoted "hot summer" yardstick of 1976 had a number just short of 7 days. In absolute numbers, there were ~700m "person days" >30c compared to 1976's ~380m. 052
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 13/09/2026And just to add to this... looking at the average daily RONI for Jun 1 up to as far as ERA5 goes and relating this to the ACE. What sticks out for me the most here after 2026's record high RONI and record low ACE is that datapoint in the bottom left... 111
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I've been attempting to calculate a sort of "daily RONI" that uses only the same day of the past 30 years for its climatology. We've been record high (back to 1980) since probably late July now although it's interesting to see the flattening off / drop of this measure in last couple of weeks. 041
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 12/09/2026I still cling on to hope of a late-season 30c... 000
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 12/09/2026But remember, Reform aren't the Establishment etc. etc. 061
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Re: the quiet hurricane season, I'd got a daily RONI calculation normalised against the same day's prior 30 years of ERA5 SST data. Took at look at which seasons had the highest "rolling daily" RONI value for the hurricane season up to the present-day. And lo... 130
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Longest we've waited since 1966 - and pretty much the lowest cumulative areal extent of SST / mid-level RH and favourable vertical shear up to early September since this year, too over the western half of the main development region. Certainly stacks up... 021
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Tropical cyclogenesis again. Here's 2026 cumulative daily occurrence of SST>26.5c, mid-level RH>50% & 200-850hpa shear<10 m/s since Jun 1 and how it compares to the 1996-2025 mean up to now (Sep 3 in ERA data) + when all 3 come together. Turns out the western MDR has had a *stinker* this year. 2101
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 08/09/2026First in my series of meteorological ales. Not sure when the next will happen. Hello from Brick in Hove. 081
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Why of course, I've picked today to watch cricket in Hove, haven't I... 031
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 06/09/2026After the summer we've had I guess it should come as no so surprise to see - albeit in the long range - that the models are flagging up in-and-around record-breaking date temperatures for the time of the year. Another >30c day to add to the list? 000
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Reform's 14-month stranglehold on the polls is over. Turns out claiming to be anti-establishment when you are actually probably the establishment doesn't wash with voters. Historical data is from Electoral Calculus website. Interactive chart here: richsdixon.github.io/misc/Elector... 000
Reposted by Richard DixonJohn Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 03/09/2026I hereby declare the "learn to code" era officially dead: Big declines in the number of people studying computer science in the last year or two 📉 Chart from this week’s edition of our newsletter on AI and the labour market www.ft.com/content/9183... 68946236
Reposted by Richard DixonMichael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 03/09/2026In a warming climate, relative SST is attractive compared to fixed SST thresholds because theory connects it to tropical convection and empirical results connect it to potential intensity. Vecchi et al. (2008) asked "Whither Hurricane Activity?" about future projections and this is the future now 021
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Inspired by a comment from @mktippett.bsky.social on a different platform: as well as shear being markedly higher and mid-latitude relative humidity being lower than usual, the relative MDR SST (showing both W and E sections vs 20S-20N tropical mean) is also pretty darn low in 2026... 140
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Kudos to @burgwx.bsky.social and his polarwx.com website - can use the historical ensemble output to make some smashing animations. Here's the last 6 EC ensemble suites for Hurricane Lowell, for example. 2171
Reposted by Richard DixonNeil Kaye @neilrkaye.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Here in the UK, 2018 was the hottest summer on record, then 2025 was the hottest summer on record and now 2026 is the hottest summer on record as well as being very dry. Here is a climate/weather summary for the past 12 months showing the multiple heatwaves we have had. #globalwaming #climatechange 04522
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 31/08/2026A fine dry start seemingly on the LED radar display, although the sun may be blocked out a little at times by a large moth in Eastern Scotland. 160
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 30/08/2026@norcrosscricket.bsky.social I'm sure it's been pointed out to you already but cherry-picking "Lowest post-war bowling averages (min qualification: 99 wickets)" is quite eyes-emoji after this Test... 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 27/08/2026This is pretty much the best thing I've done in PowerPoint.... 141
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/08/2026The clean air act finally reaches the countryside. 140
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Oh and whilst I'm here... the top 12 coldest population-weighted UK max temps, in interests of balance. Delighted to see the early Jan 12/13/14 spell as coldest: the 18 inches of snow then are etched on my Orpington memory. Surprised only to see 1963 in once. All this is subject to QA, mind...! 160
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/08/2026For interest, the top 10 population-weighted hot days in the UK from HadUK-Grid's maximum temperature data: not including Aug 2026. Weighted value in top-left of plots. Three of June 26's days in the list. Wondering if the extent of heat in August might sneak at day or two into the top 10 as well. 031
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Bit of a labour of love this. How many cumulative "person-days" have we had where the population experiences >30c daily temperatures in the UK by year? Incorporating UK population change and daily 5km HadUK-Grid max temperatures. Can see how 2026 is a standout year, assuming we don't get more 30c ! 4114
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 20/08/2026@norcrosscricket.bsky.social "The approaching season of death and mulch and darkness" - I'm trying to enjoy my summer, Dan! I need no reminders of the impending hell. 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 17/08/2026You know it's been an odd summer when this makes the headlines on the BBC News website. 020
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 15/08/2026One more of these whilst I'm still here - an even better example of a (later) onset of a sea breeze / onshore wind today. Quite hot this morning on the beach - slightly more pleasant now. Kudos to both UK Met and AROME models that nailed the later onset of the onshore wind within an hour of midday. 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Many congratulations to the right-wing press in the UK. I wonder if there's any remorse, whatsoever? 010
Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/08/2026A lovely example of the temperature rocketing in Pevensey Bay this morning and then *wallop* as soon as the sea breeze leads to an onshore wind, the rapid temperature rise stops... have calculated offshore (red) /onshore (blue) breeze classification by using the local coastal orientation. 020