iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The Green vote in predictive polls' arse has dropped out as much as Reform's, seemingly...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Cheers, will have a look (and pass on to him!) - it is pretty amazing how much that cooling period has its imprints on so many areas of met (and associated impacts).

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

AI is properly excelling at helping with recipes. Wanted to copy a recipe using a list of ingredients from a jar: Gemini does a deep dive of 50 recipes to come up with a flexible solution for Japanese soy-based pickles.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I am definitely with you on this. I've worked part-time for 10 years now partly for this reason and when I over-do it: I know it.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Sloppy, lopsided and disorganized: am slightly worried you've seen me in the morning within an hour of getting up.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Realise it's not meteorological summer but would be intrigued to see how May shows up in that chart too - was certainly a punchy month for the UK at least.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The slog towards the Vernal Equinox begins, this is a very important read as Test Match Special's Dan Norcross takes us through the impending darkness.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Either him or ex-Carry On Film star Jim Dale from British Weather Services or whatever they're called.

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Reposted by Richard Dixon

Wading into the "relative versus absolute" El Niño intensity debate: I genuinely think both are important--and I think we lose important information if we focus solely on one vs another. And both, as of late Sep, have now reached or exceeded record levels! [Thread]

Plot by Daniel Swain showing temporal evolution of ONI vs RONI index during 2026, representing two different ways to visualize El Nino intensity. The ONI has been at record levels since May, and the RONI has been at near-record levels since June. Data directly from NOAA.

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Top 5 "most read" articles on your super soaraway Daily Express right now. Churning out absolute nonsense.

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I think this needs to be said a lot: top plot for the clicks, bottom plot for the deep-dive.

... "He said: “You wouldn’t normally expect snow until later in the season and into wintertime, particularly after Christmas rather than before. That's when we have to keep our eyes on it.”" Incisive stuff.

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I see the winter season of Trashy Media Not Really Understanding Longer Range Forecast Likelihood has begun

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Yeah I'd initially been playing with individual time series for regions... and then cumulative values for regions - and now I've sort of settled on the maps!

J Mark Dodds FRSA @jmarkdodds.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I've been having a look at the components (although not using MPI, just SST) cumulatively since Jun 1 - the shear has absolutely knackered the Atlantic...(also useful RH low in supply, too - I assume from compensatory descent from the E Pac convection).

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Reposted by Richard Dixon

SPEAKING of @camraofficial.bsky.social and beer fans' success against big corporate - you'll be interested to see how social data scientist @laurenleek.eu exposed the #GreatBritishPubcoScam masterfully The data don't lie: BEER NEEDS PUBS laurenleek.substack.com/p/britain-lo...

laurenleek.substack.com

Britain Lost 14,000 Third Places. They Were Called Pubs. Is Your Local Next?

How private equity reshaped the local and the postcode tool that shows the pubs most at risk.

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I'm lowering my expectations to 25c from 30c and there's still hope...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

OK so it's not just me... I wondered as we'd been getting the data quite regularly and I thought we might be blacklisted !!

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Just checking in to see if anyone else is struggling to access the OISST data through NOAA? (e.g. downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noa...) ?

downloads.psl.noaa.gov

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

SST / low vertical shear / humid mid-troposphere components of cyclogenesis and when they co-exist for Atlantic & Pacific cumulatively since Jun 1 compared to history. Amongst other things it shows how conditions have come together nicely for Hawaii (and upwind of it) since Jun 1 in the mean.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Not sure I need to bother saying any more but one last word on 2026 v 1976: looking at the average daily Central England Temperature difference between the two years as a whole, we've settled on 1976 being about 2c warmer, as it stands near the end of September.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

An E Pac / N Atl view of how conditions for tropical cyclogenesis this summer compare to prior 30 yrs: El Nino footprint very much there. Shear has destroyed the MDR, but that slice of the E Pac close to Hawaii has been ripe: hence two, soon to be an unprecedented (?) three storms in the vicinity.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

A good read. As someone abhors flying I often interrail into Europe. The only thing I'd flag up is that the reservations are cheap and great... until you have to reserve on Eurostar (ie for anyone coming in and out of the UK) - and then it's about £40 a pop from memory depending on train.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

@zekehausfather.com Had a random question - in the seasonal forecast data that's used on the website - had you ever thought to include the once-every-3-months yearly forecast that ECMWF do? Would only be relevant 1-in-every-3 months, but thought it would be great to see included.

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No need for Alt+Number when Word can autocorrect it every time. I just hope I don't have to write about anyone called Nina.

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Fantastic having so much data on @zekehausfather.com's ENSO website for creation of charts. This shows current ENSO forecasts in historical event context highlighting those in red that are more closely aligned with current ENSO values. Suggests the outlandish 4+ RONI values maybe off the table?

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As much as I hate Microsoft products, this has been quite cathartic for me:

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

ECMWF Sept winter forecast for Europe shows first half / second half increased / decreased extra-tropical activity, respectively as given here by an over-land storm-severity index by territory. Much in line with the broad signal for El Nino-dominated winters. Signal looks quite strong for 2nd half.

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You know it's quiet when 25% of my feed is "On this day in 19VV, hurricane W hit X with Y consequences that would cost Z today".

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Forever aghast at points deductions - in any sport - if it's nothing to do with the players themselves.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The door is slightly ajar for one last crack at 30c...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I've only just seen the link to this - what a superb, comprehensive site. I think it might be the only site that shows the historical record and the ensemble forecast on the same plot ! (Just checking - absolutely everything is ONI on this, I assume?)

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Reposted by Richard Dixon

Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Remind me again why we think very high emissions scenarios can be ruled out?

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Is everyone now using RONI or do some still use ONI? It's hard to tell from some plots when a slew of charts appear. If you're using ONI as it gives more dramatic numbers for the clicks - heck, just use RONI and quote your anomalies in Fahrenheit.