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That first drive for OU went… about as well as anyone expected it to go. Just glad to sit and eat my popcorn on a bye week 😎

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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Just as I mentioned to someone at work that he was playing out of his mind… Welp.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

Tornadic storm with debris signature northwest of Charleston #Isaias

Reflectivity and correlation coefficient data from Charleston, SC NEXRAD

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We have landfall… The center of #Isaias has come ashore near Destin, FL around 8:30 PM CDT (0130 UTC) as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb.

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Agh yep. Just saw that report a moment ago. Oops…

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Yeah, that little bit of extra time in motion at 010 deg this afternoon may have just spared Pensacola from the brunt of it, but not good news for Miramar Beach and even Fort Walton.

I believe we have a sting jet aloft on radar here… just to the northeast of Pensacola and west of the edge of the eyewall. Seeing 90-100 mph winds aloft from KMOB with it. Overall storm structure is getting messier as the southern half of the inner core is almost devoid of convection.

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

EXTREME WIND WARNING in effect for much of the northwest FL coastline (🟧). This is one of the most significant warnings an NWS office can issue which entails a potentially life-threatening situation. Winds in excess of 100 mph are likely, and people should treat this as a proper tornado warning.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

The shear is here and #Isaias is feeling it. Note the "push" of upper westerlies on its outflow. It's strong enough to have made the eyewall very asymmetric, but there is not a lot of time for it to weaken too much now. Additionally, the tornado threat is beginning to the east with waterspouts there

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To the east of the center of #Isaias, there are a few what I suspect to be transient, low-topped supercells forming offshore of the FL coast. Backed surface winds out of the SE and strong veering aloft could support the potential for isolated tornadoes and tornadic waterspouts in the next few hours.

There is a considerable amount of lightning being detected in the eyewall region of #Isaias… Documented as a notorious harbinger for hurricane intensification, I fear that this storm is continuing to strengthen.

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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Interestingly, notice the marked improvement in the inversion that occurred at ~1711Z compared to the previous pass about an hour prior. Perhaps something to do with the increasing shear beginning to drive some dry air into the core of the storm?

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

#Isaias looking increasingly impressive on Elgin AFB radar. Latest recon pass found 135 kt as flight level in NE quadrant.

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This is no guarantee that it'll occur, but high-res CAM guidance such as the HRRR and the HAFS hurricane model indicates such a possibility. Predictability of such an event in space and time is notoriously difficult, but only helps to enhance the message that hurricanes are multi-faceted in impacts.

HRRR subhourly guidance for 10-m wind gust potential initialized at 15 UTC valid through 03 UTC on Oct 10. Isolated areas of 70-85 kt gusts are noted over portions of southern AL into the far western FL panhandle.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

One growing concern with #Isaias is the potential development of a "sting jet" near the center. As dry air begins to impinge on the storm today & tonight, evaporative cooling & momentum transport can help enhance low-level wind field leading to significant destructive wind gusts over isolated areas.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

Tropical Storm Rachel, which is now expected to make landfall near MX/CA border, is not currently a very impressive-looking tropical cyclone, with sparse deep convection & clear dry mid-level air intrusion. However, ambient ocean conditions are extraordinarily warm... [Thread]

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Hurricane #Isaias will likely make landfall this evening along the FL Gulf Coast as a potentially dangerous hurricane. Currently sitting at Category 3 strength (120 mph max. sustained winds), but shear will begin to modestly weaken it soon. That being said, "weaken" should be taken cautiously...

10 AM CDT advisory on Hurricane Isaias from the National Hurricane Center.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

Ten hours of Hurricane #Isaias intensifying in the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. See my previous post related to some "first hurricane" stats.

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

And the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane drought has come to a conclusion… Data from the most recent hurricane hunter mission confirmed that #Isaias is now classified as a hurricane. Intensification is expected to continue overnight into tomorrow as it moves generally ENE.

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WTNT64 KNHC 080328
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

...ISAIAS BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central
pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was
982 mb (29.00 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Roberts

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

THIS! I can’t add much to what @johnmoralestv.bsky.social and @jjrennie.bsky.social have already mentioned about this. We are not in the business of fear mongering. If conditions warranted such language, they would be communicated accordingly. Prepare and be aware, but please don’t scare.

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Worth noting that SHIPS guidance indicates the possibility that #Isaias could experience an episode of rapid intensification within the next 72-h window. Not outrageously high probs, but nothing to rule out. Perhaps this high OHC water may play a role in this before getting into unfavorable shear?

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

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4 PM CDT update on T.S. Isaias... Maximum sustained winds of 65 mph w/ further intensification likely.. Movement continues to the ENE at 8 mph, and should pick up forward motion in the next 24-36 hours. Hurricane watches are in effect for the MS, AL, & FL Gulf coast, w/ tropical storm watches inland

4 PM CDT advisory graphic of Tropical Storm Isaias from the National Hurricane Center.

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Probably should have made the clarification of “clear for the umpteenth time” if not for character limits… Sorry you all had to live through that. It certainly wasn’t right then, and it certainly isn’t right now.

It’s become clear in recent weeks that certain groups of people in positions of power do not care for victims of sexual violence. This is something that can never and should never be tolerated. Part of being an ally is to not only speak words of support, but demonstrate support through actions.

Email from RAINN:

“Dear Brian,

We wanted to take a moment to express our heartfelt gratitude for your support of RAINN. With your gift of [REDACTED] USD you are making a difference for survivors of sexual violence, and we want you to know just how profoundly it impacts the work we do.

Your compassion and commitment provide a critical lifeline, support system, and source of strength for those who have endured unimaginable pain.

As the nation's largest anti-sexual violence organization, RAINN's victim service programs, including the National Sexual Assault Hotline, have assisted more than 5.5 million survivors and their loved ones. With your help, we can continue to answer their calls free of charge, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, offering a ray of hope in their darkest moments.”

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Reposted by Brian Matilla

Some important differences between the conventional physics-based models (European and American ensembles are 1st and 2nd panels) and the AI models (Google Deepmind operational and experimental ensembles are 3rd and 4th panels). The differences in both track and intensity are obvious. #Isaias

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 07/10/2026

Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. Visit hurricanes.gov for more.

Weather Prediction Center map showing the greatest flash flood risk over the next five days from Tropical Storm Isaias. A Moderate Risk (at least 40%) is highlighted along portions of the northern Gulf Coast near Mobile, Alabama. A broader Slight Risk (at least 15%) extends across much of Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, parts of Tennessee and Georgia, and portions of the Carolinas. Surrounding areas from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast are under a Marginal Risk.

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

NHC has begun to issue advisories on TD 9 which has formed in the Gulf. It is currently progged to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026 by later this week as it moves northeastward. Interests along the Gulf coast should monitor updates and consider hurricane preparedness plans.

National Hurricane Center's Advisory 1 for Tropical Depression Nine as of 4 PM CDT October 6, 2026.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

As myself and others have discussed, Google DeepMind is definitely not dissimilar to other models in struggling with tropical cyclogenesis. New 1200 UTC model run is less bullish with development of #92L over Gulf and has a lot more dispersion/uncertainty in solutions.

1200 UTC Google DeepMind ensemble forecast for disturbance 92L in Gulf

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

However, considering all things and surprisingly, lack of rebuttals given the format, Munson appeared to be the out-and-out victress of this debate.

Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Just a thought on the OK Gubernatorial Debate presented by OETA. Mazzei largely fell flat and monotonous, with some of his points needing some fact-checking. Thumbs down for the typical GOP extremist rhetoric. Munson was articulate but wasn’t exclusively exceptional and left some plans unclear.

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Tomorrow is likely the start of a multi-day stretch of substantial heavy rainfall activity over portions of the southwest into the southern Plains as part of the impacts from Hurricane Polo (and its eventual remnants). Confidence in scattered/numerous flash flooding episodes continues to increase.

WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 1819 UTC. A MODERATE risk for excessive rainfall is in place for much of the Four Corners region.

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 1713 UTC. A MODERATE risk for excessive rainfall is in place for portions of Arizona and New Mexico into the southern High Plains.

WPC Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 1838 UTC. A MODERATE risk for excessive rainfall is in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico, as well as an area between central Texas into central Oklahoma.

WPC Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 1831 UTC. A large SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall is in place for portions of the Arklatex region and Oklahoma.

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Reposted by Brian Matilla

Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Recon is on the way to #Polo now! Reminder that on some NOAA missions like this one you can see new data minute by minute! Much faster than the normal HDOB

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This is going to be such a solid panel discussion and what a way to kick off #AMS2027 proceedings!

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This is going to be a really close call either way in a few days... Aside from the center's forecasted proximity to the Big Island, I worry that a slow and prolonged turn to the west will yield copious amounts of rainfall leading to mudslides.

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Hurricane Polo's rapid intensification is seriously impressive... A special 19Z update was issued by the NHC stating that reconnaissance aircraft found that Polo's central pressure is sitting at 892 mb, the 2nd strongest EPAC hurricane by pressure only behind Hurricane Patricia (2015; 872 mb).

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Brian Matilla's Walk to End Alzheimer's Page

I welcome and encourage friends to register for the Walk and join myself and @montanam.bsky.social on October 24th. If you can’t make it or aren’t able to make a donation (alzm.org/jrovy) your support simply by sharing this to advance the cause would still be incredibly appreciated!

alzm.org

I am participating in Walk to End Alzheimer's. Donate today and help me reach my goal.

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This isn’t something that I take for granted as while the letter and sign were things I received, we’ve all made a difference and deserve to be proud of what we’ve built to raise awareness for this cause. The work isn’t done, and there’s plenty of time to get there.

As you all may know by now, I’ve been at it again to put together a team for this year’s Walk to End Alzheimer’s on October 24th. Recently, we have attained Champion status once again thanks to all who have donated so far! This letter from the OKC Chapter is still surreal to confirm this milestone.

Letter from the OKC Walk Director Carey Lee:

“Dear OKC Walk Champion,

Congratulations, and thank you from the bottom of our hearts for becoming a Champion for the OKC Walk to End Alzheimer’s! Your generosity and heart for this cause inspire us more than words can say.

This yard sign is our way of saying thank you and letting your whole neighborhood know what a difference you are making. Because of you, families across Oklahoma facing Alzheimer’s have access to free care, support, and hope.

We would love to celebrate with you at the Walk on October 24 at Scissortail Park.

Thank you for walking with us and for making a real difference.

Together, step by step.

Carey Lee
OKC Walk Director”

Today is #WorldAlzheimersDay, and this was a pleasant and heartwarming surprise to receive on my doorstep courtesy of Alzheimer's Association Oklahoma Chapter. It’s these little gestures that can definitely go a long way!

Purple yard sign for the Oklahoma City Walk to End Alzheimer’s with the text “Start A Team”, okcwalk.com, Saturday, September 24th, Scissortail Park.

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Reposted by Brian Matilla

The storm that would come to be known as “The Great Miami Hurricane” was 1 day and 450 miles from #Miami on the morning of September 17, 1926. It was a very large Category 4 hurricane that had just passed over and devastated the Turks and Caicos Islands...

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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Oh so now she all of a sudden is trying to pull the villain-gone-hero narrative after pushing for ICE and immigration enforcement on her own people? Simple. She’s terrified of losing. Eliott Rodriguez has a solid chance of flipping that seat (dude’s practically a living legend in S. FL journalism)

Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Bruh. Plague Inc. was supposed to just remain as a VIDEO GAME…