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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 20/08/2026

📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

britishelectionstudy.com

Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 19/08/2026

📣Blog #2 📣 Even in pro-Brexit and marginal seats, Labour had lost far more support to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK by May 2026. Read more from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett here, which showcases new BESIP (W31) data: tinyurl.com/ms3c8z8y

tinyurl.com

How to lose friends and alienate voters: Labour support since 2024 - The British Election Study

James David Griffiths, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 17/08/2026

Diolch @cjterry.bsky.social for spotting the mistake in the first post... this one should be fixed!

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 17/08/2026

📣BLOG📣 Ahead of Wave 31, Prof Ed Fieldhouse explores strategic voting in Britain’s fragmented political system. His new “strategic options” concept finds Labour is still the biggest potential beneficiary, but with a declining advantage as Reform and others gain ground. tinyurl.com/4dax93c3

tinyurl.com

Who Could Benefit From Strategic Voting At The Next General Election? - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 24/06/2026

🚨 New Blog 10 years on from the referendum, and Brexit is still structuring British politics. In this new blog, BES director Ed Fieldhouse and research fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social examine how the Brexit alignment looks in 2026. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics

Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 04/12/2025

🚨Data Update 🚨 We have released an updated version of our panel data. This version includes a correction to our p_ethnicity variables, which affected 7.8% of our respondents. There is also a very small correction to our geographic variables. More ⬇️ www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

britishelectionstudy.com

Release Note: British Election Study Internet Panel v30.1 - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 30/10/2025

🚨Data Update 🚨 We are pleased to release an updated version of the 2024 BES Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey dataset (v1.0.1) that includes improved versions of two important survey weights (wt_demog and wt_vote) based on new estimates of the VEP. www.britishelectionstudy.com/2024-general...

britishelectionstudy.com

BES 2024 Random Probability Survey Release Note v1.0.1 - The British Election Study

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 12/09/2025

You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...

academic.oup.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 12/09/2025

The Economist's piece also references work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social on tactical voting in 2024, and a paper that includes BES team member @jack-bailey.co.uk on Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 12/09/2025

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment. Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

economist.com

The new battle for Britain

Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 06/09/2025

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research! www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

britishelectionstudy.com

Release Note: British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 30 - The British Election Study

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE? Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released? Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

The Brexit realignment is the essential starting point for understanding where Labour's vote is splintering. The largest group is still 'undecided': good news-ish for Labour, but potential for others too. This shows how large Labour's first year losses are relative to recent comparable governments:

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's slump is significant. Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain. Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.

Graph showing percentage of 2024 Labour voters who thought that Labour would do a good job on the economy, immigration, and the NHS before the election, and the percentage who thought that they have done a good job since. In short, Labour voters are disappointed on all three areas.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters. This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

Four graphs showing vote intention among 2024 Labour voters by immigration preferences (top-left), defence spending (top-right), taxation preferences (bottom-left), and welfare spending support (bottom-right). In short, each graph shows that Labour has lost a greater number of voters who support a 'left-liberal' position, while also losing the very few 'right-conservative' voters that they had at a higher rate.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision. These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives. So, these party blocs matter.

Graph showing how much different types of 2024 Labour voter like each of the major parties in Britain. We look at Labour voters who still support Labour in 2025, Labour voters who moved to indecision, and Labour voters who have moved to a left-liberal party. The biggest finding is that Labour to undecided voters like left-liberal parties like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform or the Conservatives.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens). Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour). These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in 2025 Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's support has splintered. Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk. The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in the 2025 Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's decline in support is remarkable. Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).

Graph showing the decline in support between a post-election wave and the subsequent wave of the British Election Study Internet Panel, measured by mean like/dislike ratings. The drop in the mean like/dislike ratings for Labour is much larger than that for the Conservatives in 2015, 2017, or 2019.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

britishelectionstudy.com

Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 01/09/2025

🚨NEW DATA 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0 You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/... You can find our release note here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

britishelectionstudy.com

BES 2024 Random Probability Survey Release Note v1.0.0 - The British Election Study

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! 👩🏼‍🏫 Details and sign up below 🔽 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...

eventbrite.co.uk

Scottish Election Study annual lecture 2025

We welcome Professor Jane Green to give the annual lecture for the Scottish Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 28/04/2025

If you're interested in what the local elections mean for the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, then @profjanegreen.bsky.social has a new explainer for you! You can read more about it here: tinyurl.com/2s48bbf4 Or you can watch here: youtu.be/T9pKpbECtKk?...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Happy to say the third in this series is now on YouTube and @itvx.com. More soon….

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 24/04/2025

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK? If so, you should watch these explainers by @profjanegreen.bsky.social Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

tinyurl.com

Do Local Elections Matter? - The British Election Study

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

We made some pithy explainers for you! Please watch these short films: Four tips for interpreting these local elections: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb... Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...

itv.com

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Reform will make big gains on 1 May. But what will that *MEAN*? Will it mean they're building momentum, or will these locals last fought in 2021 be mainly catching up with last year's GE? Will locals and a potential by-election win mean Reform are on track for a big Westminster breakthrough?

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

With massive thanks to @martamiori.bsky.social, Rosalie Falla, Sadia Islam. A joy to work with. And all at @itvnews.bsky.social @itvnewspolitics.bsky.social for their support. Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 26/02/2025

The British Election Study team are happy to announce the release of our results file, which compiles 2024 election results, census data, candidate information, and other contextual data by constituency in Britain. You can download the results file here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...

britishelectionstudy.com

2024 BES Constituency Results with Census and Candidate Data - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 05/12/2024

🚨New Data 🚨 The British Election Study team are happy to announce the release of the 2024 Expert Survey. We have also released the Trend File, which includes data from the 2014-2024 expert surveys. Thank you to those who completed the survey! Find the data here: tinyurl.com/BES-Expert-2...

tinyurl.com

2014-24 BES Expert Survey Trendfile - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 08/11/2024

📣 Data update 📣 We have updated our Teaching Dataset to include our 2024 waves (26-29) These datasets (wide/long) have a condensed number of variables, which are designed for use by teaching professionals. Available here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects...

britishelectionstudy.com

Data Categories Panel study data - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 21/10/2024

📢Data Update 📢 We have released an updated version of the British Election Study Internet Panel, alongside waves 20, 27, and 29 with some minor fixes. This includes rectifying a small labelling issue with our selfPriorities variables. Find data here: britishelectionstudy.com/data/

britishelectionstudy.com

Data - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 19/09/2024

🚨New Research🚨 @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @mlsohnius.bsky.social have explored disillusionment among young voters, which was featured on @BBCr4today. You can read the blog here: disq.us/t/4qqlcl2 Or you can listen to Prof Green here (from 02:40:55): www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

disq.us

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 16/09/2024

In short, Reform UK's voters are mostly ex-Conservative and UKIP voters, who believe that immigration is the key issue facing Britain and that the Conservatives cannot reduce it. As a result, they are very similar to UKIP voters in 2015!

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 16/09/2024

📣 New Research 📣 We're excited to see your analyses of the new post-2024 GE BES data For now, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social and Ed Fieldhouse have looked at what we know about Reform Watch: youtu.be/Z8s9hzTsruc?... Read: www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/b...

youtu.be

Back to the Future: Similarities of 2015 UKIP & 2024 Reform UK

YouTube video by Nuffield College, Oxford

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 12/09/2024

Happy #EPOP2024 everyone. We are pleased to announce the release of waves 27, 28, and 29 of the BES Internet Panel. You can find the panel, and the standalone files, on our website: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...

britishelectionstudy.com

British Election Study Combined Wave 1-29 Internet Panel - The British Election Study

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

We now move to discussing what the results in Professor Fieldhouse's talk mean for British politics with @paulbrand.bsky.social

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

Professor Fieldhouse is now discussing what the British Election Study can tell us about the latest UK General Election. The main story is that we have high volatility between elections, but people tend to switch within 'party families'

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

To begin, Professor Fieldhouse is giving us an overview of the history and the British Election Study, and the contribution that it has made to understanding British politics

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

We are here at the @britishacademy.bsky.social to celebrate the 60th Anniversary of the British Election Study, with a presentation from Professor Ed Fieldhouse and discussion from @paulbrand.bsky.social Can't be here? Don't worry, we will publish our event on YouTube later!

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 05/09/2024

📢New blog In our first post-election analysis, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social , @profjanegreen.bsky.social, and Ed Fieldhouse explore how tactical voting helped the Liberal Democrats when they were the anti-Conservative option Watch our summary: youtu.be/LSAdGa3bBnQ?... Read here: shorturl.at/iet8O

Image of switching between Liberal Democrats and Labour. Liberal Democrats gain most in places where they were the main competition to the Conservatives.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/04/2024

🚨 New Datasets 🚨 We have published two new datasets: 1. A condensed version of the BES internet panel, designed for use by teaching professionals. 2. A supplementary dataset, which can link Wave 22 with the Scottish/Welsh Election Studies. 👇👇 www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects... polisky 🌐

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25/01/2024

As per usual, we also keep a change log. There are quite a lot of changes this time, so please take note.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25/01/2024

Due to the pandemic, some local authorities could not provide marked registers. As such, those respondents for whom we do not have data are not missing at random. We therefore recommend that users proceed with caution and investigate the data thoroughly before using them.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25/01/2024

🌐📊🚨NEW DATA🚨📊🌐 We're pleased to announce that we have updated the 2019 BES random probability data to now include validated voting data and a host of other fixes. Click to download and scroll down for some important information. www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...

britishelectionstudy.com

2019 British Election Study Post-Election Random Probability Survey - The British Election Study

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