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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.

Graph showing percentage of 2024 Labour voters who thought that Labour would do a good job on the economy, immigration, and the NHS before the election, and the percentage who thought that they have done a good job since. In short, Labour voters are disappointed on all three areas.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters. This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

Four graphs showing vote intention among 2024 Labour voters by immigration preferences (top-left), defence spending (top-right), taxation preferences (bottom-left), and welfare spending support (bottom-right). In short, each graph shows that Labour has lost a greater number of voters who support a 'left-liberal' position, while also losing the very few 'right-conservative' voters that they had at a higher rate.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision. These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives. So, these party blocs matter.

Graph showing how much different types of 2024 Labour voter like each of the major parties in Britain. We look at Labour voters who still support Labour in 2025, Labour voters who moved to indecision, and Labour voters who have moved to a left-liberal party. The biggest finding is that Labour to undecided voters like left-liberal parties like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform or the Conservatives.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens). Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour). These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in 2025 Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's support has splintered. Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk. The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in the 2025 Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 03/09/2025

Labour's decline in support is remarkable. Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).

Graph showing the decline in support between a post-election wave and the subsequent wave of the British Election Study Internet Panel, measured by mean like/dislike ratings. The drop in the mean like/dislike ratings for Labour is much larger than that for the Conservatives in 2015, 2017, or 2019.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 16/09/2024

In short, Reform UK's voters are mostly ex-Conservative and UKIP voters, who believe that immigration is the key issue facing Britain and that the Conservatives cannot reduce it. As a result, they are very similar to UKIP voters in 2015!

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

We now move to discussing what the results in Professor Fieldhouse's talk mean for British politics with @paulbrand.bsky.social

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

Professor Fieldhouse is now discussing what the British Election Study can tell us about the latest UK General Election. The main story is that we have high volatility between elections, but people tend to switch within 'party families'

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

To begin, Professor Fieldhouse is giving us an overview of the history and the British Election Study, and the contribution that it has made to understanding British politics

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 09/09/2024

We are here at the @britishacademy.bsky.social to celebrate the 60th Anniversary of the British Election Study, with a presentation from Professor Ed Fieldhouse and discussion from @paulbrand.bsky.social Can't be here? Don't worry, we will publish our event on YouTube later!

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 05/09/2024

📢New blog In our first post-election analysis, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social , @profjanegreen.bsky.social, and Ed Fieldhouse explore how tactical voting helped the Liberal Democrats when they were the anti-Conservative option Watch our summary: youtu.be/LSAdGa3bBnQ?... Read here: shorturl.at/iet8O

Image of switching between Liberal Democrats and Labour. Liberal Democrats gain most in places where they were the main competition to the Conservatives.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25/01/2024

As per usual, we also keep a change log. There are quite a lot of changes this time, so please take note.

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