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Bryan R. Early

@brephd.bsky.social
235 followers 62 following 27 posts

Political scientist with expertise on economic sanctions, strategic trade controls, and WMD security issues.

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Reposted by Bryan R. Early
James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The GOP cut funding to the IRS because *audits work* and they fundamentally don't believe rich people should have to play by the rules.
Line chart titled "Revenue per audit," subtitled "In-person audits, 2010-2014." It plots average revenue and average cost per audit by taxpayer income percentile, poorer to richer, from the 0–5th percentile to the top 0.1%. Source: Boning et al. 2023, "A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution."

Across the bottom half of the income distribution, revenue and cost track closely, both around $3,000–$6,000 per audit. Above the median, revenue pulls ahead of cost: about $10,000 vs. $5,000 near the 90th percentile, and about $17,000 vs. $8,000 at the 95th–99th. At the top, revenue jumps to about $31,000 for the 99–99.9th percentile and about $90,000 for the top 0.1%.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’m happy to share that my new book with @togzhankassenova.bsky.social “Banks and the Bomb: Understanding Proliferation Financing” will be published by Stanford University Press in July 2027. It explores how to prevent international financial transactions that facilitate WMD proliferation. 1/4
A green book cover for Banks and the Bomb: Understanding Proliferation Financing.
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Keith A. Preble, Ph.D. @poliscikeith.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
My paper with Crystal D. Pryor (UAlbany, Center for Policy Research) in @fpajrnl.bsky.social, "Strategic Trade Controls as Trade-Enabling Institutions" has just been published! /1 doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...
doi.org
Strategic Trade Controls as Trade-Enabling Institutions
Abstract. Do Strategic Trade Controls (STCs) restrict trade, or can they help countries participate in the trade of sensitive goods? Despite obligations un
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
After Trump gutted the IRS workforce — including the unit tasked with auditing billionaires — the agency's annual audit revenue plunged by 35%. Trump's attacks on the IRS were never about "efficiency." They were about making it easier for the wealthy and powerful to skirt what they owe.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.
data4democracy.substack.com
Hook and Squeeze
How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
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Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
My friend and fellow nuclear-movie nerd @dandrezner.bsky.social has written a great piece here for the @thebulletin.org about THREADS, which is pretty much the bleakest movie ever made about nuclear war. Which is why you should see it. thebulletin.org/premium/2026...
thebulletin.org
The brutal, powerful legacy of Threads
Mick Jackson’s 1984 film Threads endures as the most devastating depiction of nuclear war in apocalyptic cinema. Its portrayal of societal collapse is unrelenting. Threads depicts nuclear war as a cat...
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I’m excited to read Keith’s new book. He’s one of the smartest experts out there on the topic of sanctions busting and the quality of his research is top-notch. Definitely pick this one up if you’re interested in economic sanctions.
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Keith A. Preble, Ph.D. @poliscikeith.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I finally completed all the revisions to my book, had the index completed, read through it, caught any last minute issues! It should be available in late August/September! /1
Screenshot of the front and back cover of my latest book "Smart Evasion"
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
For ISA, I wrote a paper about what sanctions busting tactics reveal about the effectiveness of sanctions The US letting sanctioned Iranian ships sell their oil is relaxing the impact of sanctions when the US is trying to maximize pressure on its regime. The US is facilitating sanctions busting!
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Rep. Joe Neguse @neguse.house.gov · 20/03/2026
My resolution to overturn the Supreme Court’s disastrous Citizens United decision — H.J.Res 122 — has now been co-sponsored by 72 Members of Congress. You can view the full list at: www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c.... I’ll keep fighting to get it across the finish line!
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19/03/2026
The budget of USAID was $22 billion per year. It was *saving the lives* of 4.1 million men, women, and children per year, all over the world. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
NEW: Preliminary assessment finds U.S. at fault for strike on Iranian girl's school. A source confirmed to @npr.org that U.S. CENTCOM had only one staffer assigned to mitigating civilian casualties. www.npr.org/2026/03/11/n...
npr.org
Pentagon probe points to U.S. missile hitting Iranian school
A military assessment suggests a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile was responsible for at least 165 deaths at an Iranian girls' school, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly...
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
I fully agree with this statement: “I know that the American people are better than this. We have the good sense to know that what is happening is not entertainment but war, and that Iran is a nation of people, not a video game others play to entertain us.” www.archchicago.org/statement/-/...
archchicago.org
Statement of Cardinal Blase J. Cupich, archbishop of Chicago, “A Call to Conscience” - Statements - Archdiocese of Chicago - AoC Portal
As more than 1,000 Iranian men, women and children lay dead after days of bombardment from U.S. and Israeli missiles, the official White House X account on Thursday evening posted a video of scenes fr...
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
if you believe in any form of free enterprise at all, the idea that the Pentagon can not only cut off your contract but designate you a supply chain risk and prevent other companies from buying from you just because you won't build killbots for the government should be terrifying
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@NewsJennifer (Jennifer Schulze) @newsjennifer.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Terrific piece on how the New York Times and Politico failed to spot pink slime and how it all plays into a reckless smear on AOC and Gov Whitmire. open.substack.com/pub/spinclas...
open.substack.com
I Caught POLITICO and the New York Times Laundering Pink Slime "News"
How the sexist backlash to AOC and Gretchen Whitmer at the Munich Security Conference led me to a scammy "local news" outlet pushing a coordinated right-wing narrative
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 23/02/2026
Quietly, the Trump administration is now ending even the life-saving aid that they had promised would be preserved Reporting from @hana-kiros.bsky.social www.theatlantic.com/health/2026/...
theatlantic.com
The Trump Administration Is Ending Aid That It Says Saves Lives
The State Department will let lifesaving projects expire because “there is no strong nexus between the humanitarian response and U.S. national interests,” according to an internal email.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Tariffs are taxes that specifically target imports. By taxing imports into America, tariffs create higher prices. It is not surprising that research demonstrates that this relationship exists—it’s more surprising that finding is controversial. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through No...
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
As someone who has written about how civilian nuclear infrastructure raises countries’ likelihood of being targeted for radiological and nuclear terrorism and public concern over nuclear risks, this is incredibly alarming news. It will raise the risks of using nuclear power and public fear about it.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
The United States should not seek to acquire Greenland. We already have the strategic advantages it provides through our close alliance relationship with Denmark. Any efforts to forcibly acquire it run counter to US interests, international law, and our mutually beneficial relationship with Europe.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
My collaborator Keith Preble does an amazing job of keeping our OFAC sanctions enforcement data up-to-date. It’s an excellent scholarly resource.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Having written about why conventional bombings should be considered WMD terrorism, I can attest that there’s no way fentanyl should be treated as one in US policy. It further muddies the already muddled definitions of WMD and makes it harder to stop real proliferation. doi.org/10.1080/1746...
doi.org
Should conventional terrorist bombings be considered weapons of mass destruction terrorism?
Since weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are typically thought of as chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons, the designation of conventional bombings as WMD terrorism under US...
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
My wonderful co-author Dr. Keith Preble has just updated our economic sanctions enforcement data set (2003-2025). It’s a great resource if you want to track or study how the US government’s #OFAC follows through on US sanctions by penalizing parties that violate them. Public release in Jan. 2026.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Tomorrow, I’ll be delivering a talk on my co-authored book project with Togzhan Kassenova entitled “Banks and the Bomb” as part of UAlbany’s Pathbreaking Research series at 10 am. The event is open to the public with registration. See: events.albany.edu/event/day-5-....
albany.edu
Four Faculty Members Tapped for 'Pathbreaking Research' Talks
The presentations, covering topics ranging from health communication to the aviation industry's impact on climate, will take place on Oct. 31 from 10 a.m. to noon at ETEC as part of Day 5 of Research ...
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
I just watched “A House of Dynamite.” It was excellent and terrifying. It was a great reminder of why it is crucial to stop the spread of #nuclear weapons and work towards disarmament. I’m grateful to have such great colleagues working with me at PISCES/CPR at UAlbany to prevent WMD proliferation.
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
I think this concept applies to more than just digital platforms…
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Bryan R. Early @brephd.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Getting to work with the fine civil servants and foreign service officers at the State Department to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction has been the greatest privilege and honor of my professional career. 1/2
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
New, from me @theatlantic.com: *No, the federal government is not too big *It has real human capital needs *Firings are indiscriminate, weakening state capacity *Creating a toxic and politicized workplace is driving away dedicated employees www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
theatlantic.com
The DOGE Project Will Backfire
Trump’s war on public employees is bad for all of us.
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Daniel Loxton 🇨🇦 @danielloxton.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
“I was in a mission meeting last week where the mission director said, ‘We have lost contact with Washington. We are on our own.’ I can tell you, in my entire career in government, have never seen such a thing. Not during Covid, not during crisis, not during civil war. Never.”
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Also, the pause is destroying implementing partners’ finances, and is likely to permanently wreck capacity going forward
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