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New post: Reasons to think the Greens are losing their countryside base www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 05/10/2026

New post: The Burnham Bounce betrays what's happening in London, and why Holborn may still be a tight(er) fight (and other, less ideal, things for the Greens) www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...

cambridge.org

EPOP collection

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 14/09/2026

New post: Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved... BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please. Read all about it: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

newstatesman.com

Reform has peaked

Scandals have tarnished the party's image

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Michael Goodier @michaelgoodier.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

interesting election data from my old colleague @bwalker.uk who has managed to gather ward-level results for the Greater Manchester mayoral britainelects.substack.com/p/catch-up-g...

britainelects.substack.com

Catch up: Greater Manchester mayoral results by ward

What’s more remarkable, that Labour swept Gorton and Denton; or that the fourth-placed Tories were still winning wards?

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Anoosh Chakelian @anooshc.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

New @newstatesman1913.bsky.social pod! @bwalker.uk and I analysed the results as they came in the Clacton count, and tell you the story of a bizarre by-election night. Listen here:

shows.acast.com

Farage wins again at Clacton circus | The Politics Show

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bort @crushbort.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

a true crime podcast I would listen to is one where the victims families walk in and sit down in the studio halfway through the episode

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 09/08/2026

A very geeky post but important for the discourse britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 08/08/2026

I have a pretty geeky post out tomorrow morning on what forecasters might be getting wrong about where the parties are. Something good and bad for everyone. BritainElects.com

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 04/08/2026

New post: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 03/08/2026

Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 02/08/2026

Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

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flyingrodent @flyingrodent.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

newstatesman.com

Are the Greens taking Reform votes?

The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

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Adam Payne @adampayne26.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform "Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"

newstatesman.com

Are the Greens taking Reform votes?

The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 18/03/2026

Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?

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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

newstatesman.com

The rise of the undecided voter

Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 15/03/2026

Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved

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Alexandra Lanes @ajlanes.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )

Six panels of a cartoon, with various Scottish politicos explaining that you should vote. In the bottom right a man wearing a blue shirt and black trousers, with grey hair and a big excited wide open mouth has his hands up in the air and is sliding down a children's slide shouting "Willie Rennie!!!"

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 26/02/2026

Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 25/02/2026

Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 25/02/2026

Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning. It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.

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Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now. @bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 02/02/2026

New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today. It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

newstatesman.com

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?

Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

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The New Statesman @newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder. 📊 @bwalker.uk

newstatesman.com

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?

Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

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Georgina Sturge @georginasturge.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!

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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens. This is particularly striking:

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 16/01/2026

New best party on the economy poll: Con: 21% Ref: 14% Lab: 12% Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods. 8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons 17% of Con voters now prefer Ref YouGov d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 15/01/2026

Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today: Con: 37% (-2) Ref: 23% (+8) Lab: 21% (-12) Britain Predicts

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 15/01/2026

Jenrick held greater sympathy among Reform voters (30%) than Tory (26%) YouGov, Oct 2025

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The New Statesman @newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Labour understands the public on immigration. But if Shabana Mahmood’s gamble fails, Reform will benefit. 📊 @bwalker.uk

newstatesman.com

Labour understands the public on immigration

But if Shabana Mahmood's gamble fails, Reform will benefit

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 20/11/2025

Looking at the Danish local elections net change in seats... Net losers SocDems (centre-left): -156 Venstre (centre-right): -99 Conservatives (right): -61 Net winners Green Left (left): +80 DPP (far-right): +62 Liberal Alliance (right): +116 Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123 Hmm.

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 13/11/2025

Guardian — Police and Crime Commissioner roles to be abolished

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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

"The problem isn’t that we have a deliberately biased BBC, it’s that we have a BBC that has been consciously reduced in its scope and bullied into dumbing down and retreating." www.ft.com/content/676c...

ft.com

Home - Financial Times

News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 05/11/2025

A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote. If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 05/11/2025

Most important issue to voting New Yorkers who've given the win to Mamdani: Cost of living: 56% Crime: 22% >> Immigration: 10% via AP Voter Poll / SSRS

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 05/11/2025

Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 05/11/2025

Decision Desk HQ calls NYC for Mamdani.

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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

If parties want credit for telling hard truths, they need to tell them when they're genuinely hard. If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller. But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 03/11/2025

An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 01/11/2025

£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households

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Sam Greene @samagreene.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing. /3

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Ben Walker @benwalker.org.uk · 15/08/2025

Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...

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@bobhudson.bsky.social @bobhudson.bsky.social · 02/08/2025

Truly grim analysis of Labour’s electoral prospects in Wales by @bwalker.uk. 2026 looks to be a politically explosive year. open.substack.com/pub/britaine...

open.substack.com

Death spiral? The state of Labour in Wales

Plus: the polling which shows how bad it really is

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