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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

State-legislative races are undeservedly flying under the radar this year. @statenavigate.org's forecasts suggest there could be major changes in state capitols. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/nation...

A list of trifectas that could be created and broken in the 2026 election.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Free next Tuesday? Come see me, Natalie Jackson, @kkondik.bsky.social, and @jmilescoleman.bsky.social chat about the midterm elections, either in person in Charlottesville or via livestream! centerforpolitics.org/event/sabato...

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Here’s a spray chart of previous batted balls with the same launch angle and exit velocity as Ty France’s.

A baseball diamond showing most balls hit with a 105mph exit velocity and 49-degree launch angle were outs.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

@nataliaecm.bsky.social spoke to a Texas voter who thought he had registered at the DMV and then couldn’t vote in the March primary: www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/1...

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Correction, I missed a few! There are 38 states that have hosted major-league games.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It’s a beautiful day for softball! #CWSG

A softball diamond laid out on a soccer pitch

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

And in their written analysis, race raters readily acknowledge a blue wave could hit. Inside Elections also has a specific “Outlook” section where it’s clear they believe Democrats are favored to flip the House.

A text box that says "Republicans have a 220-215 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats for a majority. Current Projection: Democrats +2-10 seats"

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The press team—the Bad News Babes—is losing Amy Walter and @lynnsweet.bsky.social this year, but adding Reagan Reese!

The Bad News Babes roster for the 2026 Congressional Women’s Softball Game.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Rosters for the Congressional Women’s Softball Game are out! No rookies on Team Congress, but Stephanie Bice, Brittany Pettersen, and Nanette Barragán are off the roster.

The roster for Team Congress in the 2026 Congressional Women’s Softball Game.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

These are for the old districts, but here's the 2020 Democratic presidential primary by Massachusetts CD. It gives you a pretty good sense of the leaning of each district's Democratic primary electorate.

A spreadsheet of 2020 Democratic presidential primary results in Massachusetts by congressional district.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Start spreading the news: A tripleheader is exhausting, hectic… and unforgettable. Thanks for all the words of encouragement!

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Made it back to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the 2nd! That means we missed less than 4 innings total, out of 27.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Game 1! And my first game at new Yankee Stadium. It’s terrible, is there a single escalator in this whole place?

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Today in NYC, it’s theoretically possible for a crazy superfan to go to 3 MLB games in 1 day. The Yankees & Red Sox play a doubleheader at 1 and 7pm, and the Mets & Astros play at 4pm. Wish me luck.

A sign at a train station reading “New York Penn Station”

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The #AKgov field is set, and it's anyone's game. This is the kind of wide-open race where ranked-choice voting can really show off its true potential.

The results of the all-party primary for Alaska governor.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

A good summary from Mary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton in the above-linked piece.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Good gut check from @fiftyplusone.news: Despite all the handwringing about shadowy new pollsters this year, there are no more of them than in past years.

A bar graph showing the number of new pollsters by election cycle.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

With this, Trump's mail-voting executive order is no longer legally blocked. BUT since Monday, multiple new motions have been made to block it since the USPS rules are now final. Expect a new injunction by the end of the week.

A tweet reading, "Judge Indira Talwani lifted her nationwide injunction against President Trump’s election executive order, allowing USPS’s new mail-ballot rules to take effect after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday."

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Did... did Dolly Parton's death crash Wikipedia?

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Among the duped: The California/New York Post, which wrote a whole article on the poll (nypost.com/2026/08/13/u...), and this aggregator account.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Disseminating fake polling data is Harmful and Bad, but these people certainly got their answer about how quickly it would spread.

A screenshot reading, "Median Strategies has concluded its polling project and will not publish additional polls.

All previously published polling releases have been withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data.

Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification."

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Polls are now closed in Minnesota and Wisconsin!

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

You've got three current or former congressmen doing well in their districts, and then one candidate with statewide appeal. #SCsen #mapporn

A map of election results in South Carolina.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Polls are now closed in Connecticut and Alabama!

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Oh, you can already tell this is going to be a fun one. #SCsen

A screenshot of the results of the South Carolina Senate primary showing several candidates doing well.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Polls are now closed in South Carolina and Vermont!

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

My friend got the Blue Jays America 250 hat IRL

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Here are the types of laws the Missouri constitution says are exempt from veto referenda.

A screenshot of the Missouri constitution that lists the exceptions to referenda as: "laws necessary for the immediate preservation of the public peace, health or safety, and laws making appropriations for the current expenses of the state government, for the maintenance of state institutions and for the support of public schools"

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Noticed this fan at the Fever-Storm game holding a sign of support for Sophie Cunningham.

A woman in a black shirt sitting courtside at a basketball game holding a sign saying, “Thank you Sophie for speaking up for girls”

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

So far tonight at Fenway Park, the Wave started in the 4th inning, a dog won the fan dance-off, and someone drank a beer out of his shoe on the Jumbotron.

A baseball diamond beneath a green building.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

The MLB app now has an option to show betting odds right there on the game card.

A screenshot of the MLB app showing odds for the Mets-Phillies game.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

The @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social midterm forecast is out: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026 And of note, they are incorporating prediction market data.

“We are always working to improve our process and products so this year we are including prediction market data from both Kalshi and Polymarket into our forecast. While these markets are relatively new, we believe there is signal to be gleaned from them, especially around the impact of breaking news that may take weeks to show up in polling.” according to Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ, Scott Tranter.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

State capitol #25. Doesn’t measure up to Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota, but better than most non-Midwestern capitols.

An intricately decorated interior of a rotunda

Another semicircular room with even more desks

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Better late than never: Here's the box score for last month's Congressional Baseball Game, which Republicans won 11–2.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Whoa, this is big. The SAVE tool was a big part of the Trump administration's efforts to root out alleged noncitizen voters.

A tweet from ProPublica reporter Jen Fifield reading, "NEW: The Trump administration has shut down a controversial Homeland Security tool it had touted as a way to find noncitizens who’d illegally registered to vote, ProPublica has learned."

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

I know this makes me sound like one of those crazy third-party people, but there do keep being these small signs that AI/tech could disrupt the two-party system…

A tweet that reads, "Pretty diverse political group at this anti-data center rally, including progressive U.S. House candidate Will Lawrence and Republican candidate for governor Perry Johnson."

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

And Morales goes down. Engling is a Jim Banks aide who doesn’t have a well-defined track record on elections. He’ll face Beau Bayh this fall in what could be a competitive race.

A tweet saying that Max Engling won the Republican nomination for Indiana secretary of state.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales, who has faced various scandals and is quite unpopular, trails big in his quest for renomination at the IN GOP convention.

A screenshot of a tweet showing Max Engling with 715 votes, David Shelton with 543, and Diego Morales with 283.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

In 2024, the House had 203 🔴 seats (Trump≥6), 172 🔵 seats (Harris≥6), and 60 🟣 seats. If both parties gerrymander to the max, we could be looking at a 213 🔴, 205 🔵, 17 🟣 map.

A cartogram of the U.S. House map showing what could happen if both parties gerrymander to the max.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

I asked Rep. Sarah Elfreth before the game how she would respond to people who say Dems should refuse to play in the #CBG26 to protest the GOP's/Trump's actions. I wanted to wait until I got home to transcribe her response in full.

A quote: “If we can’t—as leaders, elected officials, members of the institution that is Congress—model good behavior and how to actually disagree without being disagreeable, how do I expect my constituents or the American people to do that?

Now, we have failed at that—let me be very clear. We dehumanize each other left and right. We fail to see to our own better angels, let alone someone else’s. This is one of those places where we can actually be human beings.

And again, I have to be an optimist in this work, so I have to believe that it can last beyond tonight, because that’s what the American people deserve. Even if we’re yelling and screaming at each other, I think we have to demonstrate that we can be adults in the room and actually focus on the challenges and problems of this country and come together for solutions. And if it starts at a baseball game, I’ll take it.”

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

What happens when you put a couple dozen thousand congressional staffers in the same place: #CBG26

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