Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/02/2026@janrosenow.bsky.social @scurveeconomics.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @ecioxford.bsky.social 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/02/2026Shiny new paper: Virtuous and vicious cycles in the energy transition We explore how feedback loop dynamics are shaping the energy transition and what it means for decision makers. www.nature.com/articles/s44...nature.comVirtuous and vicious cycles in the energy transition - Nature Reviews Clean TechnologyFeedback loops shape the pace and direction of the clean energy transition by accelerating or resisting change. Researchers and practitioners can draw on these feedback loops as practical heuristics t... 113
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonINET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 18/12/2025You can read our briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcasing 4 research programmes from @inetoxford.bsky.social that could help inform decisions @doynefarmer.bsky.social @emilienravigne.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/complex...inet.ox.ac.ukComplexity Economics Insights for the Seventh Carbon BudgetThis briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcases four research programmes from the University of Oxford’s… 083
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 26/11/2025*NEW WORKING PAPER* Using vision-language models to extract network data from images of system maps We need to test whether gen AI tools can help with systems mapping. Here, we lay out a formal approach for doing so, and test a specific use case on 7 models. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.ukNo. 2025-26 - Using vision-language models to extract network data…A range of systems mapping approaches are widely used to support the analysis and design of public policy, but can be time and resource intensive to… 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 22/09/2025Applications Now Open The Oxford Climate Society is delighted to announce that applications for the School of Climate Change (SoCC) are open until Saturday 11 October, midnight (11:59pm UK time) oxfordclimatesociety.com/school-of-cl...oxfordclimatesociety.comSchool of Climate Change — Oxford Climate Society 021
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 22/09/2025www.theguardian.com/education/20...theguardian.comLess than Greggs? Public have no idea of value of top universities, study findsBelief that snack chain’s revenues exceed those of Oxford’s one of many misconceptions about UK’s HE sector 010
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 17/09/2025Really excellent article on approaches to AI and the connections between geopolitics and academia... www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...theguardian.com‘I have to do it’: Why one of the world’s most brilliant AI scientists left the US for ChinaIn 2020, after spending half his life in the US, Song-Chun Zhu took a one-way ticket to China. Now he might hold the key to who wins the global AI race 010
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/20254) solar costs are most sensitive to sovereign bond yields and exchange-rate pass-through, whereas wind costs decrease with GDP per capita and foreign direct investment. 010
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/20253) global learning accounts for 60–75% of country solar cost declines but virtually none of wind’s (local price pressures negating most wind power learning). ... 100
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/20254 main findings: 1) country price dispersion is widening, roughly twice as fast for wind as for solar. 2) country cost rankings are highly persistent. ... 100
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025New @inetoxford.bsky.social working paper from the fantastic Brendon Tankwa. “Who rides the renewable cost curve? Country evidence on prices, learning, and policy.” In it, we kick around country-level cost data on solar and wind every which way we could think of! www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.ukNo. 2025-17 - Who rides the renewable cost curve? Country evidence on…How fast can every country benefit from renewable cost declines? Using the largest cross-country panel dataset assembled to date, this paper analyzes 34… 110
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025I want to give a huge thanks to all the people (staff and especially students) who made my nearly 5 years at Oxford such a joy, and all the people from CECAN, Surrey, Westminster, and beyond, before then who helped and inspired me. Thank you! 010
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025I will also be an associate at @inetoxford.bsky.social and hope to keep very much involved in The Agile Initiative (but we haven’t quite finalised plans there yet!). 110
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025I will be teaching my master's elective course on complexity and systems thinking for environment there once a year, and continuing to supervise a group of amazing PhD students. 100
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025I am sad to be leaving Oxford of course, but could not bring myself to break ties fully, so will remain at the @ecioxford.bsky.social, as a teaching associate. 100
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025Of course, the pull of a permanent post, close to home, in such an amazing institution, was a big factor too. I feel very privileged and lucky to have got such a position, given the crazy economics, precarity, and career options in academia. 110
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025I will be researching and teaching much the same stuff as I do already (phew!), and believe this new-ish department, with a radical commitment to interdisciplinarity, will be a great fit for my work. 100
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025🚨 Warning 🚨: cheesy career news post incoming 🧀 . Apologies in advance! From mid-September, I am very excited to be joining UCL Arts and Sciences (UASc) as a lecturer in social economics! @artshumsucl.bsky.social 140
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/08/2025New open access paper on how to identify and assess positive tipping points to catalyse the low-carbon transition. This work synthesises a lot of ideas in this space and makes them practical and usable in research and policy work. Check it out: link.springer.com/article/10.1...link.springer.comA method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them - Sustainability ScienceMeeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping point... 020
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 30/07/2025@doynefarmer.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @ecioxford.bsky.social @oxfordgeography.bsky.social 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 30/07/2025Fed up with economists using inappropriate methods to study climate change and net zero? Here is a paper for you, "Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy"! We speak to governments about what they need, and show which economic methods can deliver. academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...academic.oup.comEconomic models and frameworks to guide climate policyAbstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo 1133
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonPete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition. Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating? www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...scurveeconomics.orgSystem archetypes of the energy transition | S-Curve Economics 131
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 11/06/2025Why the energy transition is non-linear: Excited to share that an article I co-authored on how feedback loops & non-linear thinking can inform climate policy is now published by the @weforum.org. We dive into why systems thinking is crucial for real climate progress. www.weforum.org/stories/2025...weforum.orgHow ‘feedback loops’ and ‘non-linear thinking’ can inform climate policyClimate policy: The global shift towards a clean-energy system goes beyond technology to a transformation of markets, industries and societal behaviour. 57721
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Decision-makers who understand how to work with these dynamics will have the advantage in navigating the transition... 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition. Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating? www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...scurveeconomics.orgSystem archetypes of the energy transition | S-Curve Economics 131
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 05/06/2025🚨 NEW RESEARCH: The energy transition is more disruptive—and could move much faster—than most people think. It’s not just about swapping old tech for new. Shift to clean energy is a complex web of feedback loops, tipping points & surprises. Our new 📖 👇 www.scurveeconomics.org/publications... 🧵 1517266
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonAnna Murphy @annamurph.bsky.social · 06/06/2025The climate movement keeps saying 'stop talking about system change' and inaccessible jargon. Well, if this makes you sad then see 'system' and 'feedback loops' and 'levers' jargon put to excellent use in our new report. Summary in @carbonbrief.org too www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...carbonbrief.orgGuest post: How ‘feedback loops’ and ‘non-linear thinking’ can inform climate policy - Carbon BriefThe global shift towards a clean-energy system is much more than just a technological switch – it is a profound transformation of markets, industries and societal behaviours. 1169
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Solar hit 700GW in 2020—10x what was forecast in 2006. Why? Feedback loops & non-linear change, not just tech swaps, drive clean energy. Our new @carbonbrief.org piece: Early policy support + smart market design + cross-sector links = faster decarbonisation. www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h... 924088
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 01/05/2025New revamped @cecan.bsky.social fellowship scheme! www.cecan.ac.uk/cecan-fellow... 1) Interact with our team of experts on policy evaluation and analysis, systems thinking and complexity. 2) Work on mini-project related to challenges in your work. Open to anyone working in these areas!cecan.ac.ukCECAN Fellowships - CECANCECAN has established a Fellowship Scheme for those who wish to participate and contribute to its work. The scheme provides opportunities for those from Government and business to forge useful and las... 020
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonInstitute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford @inetoxford.bsky.social · 08/04/2025A new working paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social's team develops an approach for using natural language processing in policy analysis. Yuan Fu & Pete show that NLP workflow is full of subjective judgements and choices 🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications... @inet-complexity.bsky.social #complexity 0103
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...linkedin.comLLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-JohnsonRecently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u... 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...linkedin.comLLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-JohnsonRecently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u... 000
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025🚨 New working paper - geeking out on systems mapping 🤓 *Using natural language processing to create prelim system maps* www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.uk2025-09 - Using NLP to create preliminary causal system maps for use…The use of causal systems mapping in interdisciplinary and policy research has increased in recent years. Causal system maps typically rely on stakeholder… 131
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025New guidance on using LLMs to support systems mapping exercises. LLMs can be a useful tool, but only as a complement to a wider exercise. The won't do your systems thinking for you! www.cecan.ac.uk/wp-content/u...cecan.ac.uk 121
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonSimon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/03/2025THREAD: How the Sun screwed up its "smoking gun" story on net-zero study The Sun: "As much as 10% wld be wiped off economic growth by end of decade" Source: "At no point does this study suggest there will be a drop in UK GDP. It talks abt a 10% transfer…within GDP" Oops! 1/10 815474
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonINET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 20/03/2025The latest paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social with Domenica Cox and Alexandra Penn examines systems thinking in UK environmental policy making www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.ukNo. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy makingIn recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental… 021
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 19/03/2025New working paper! 🚨 Systems thinking in UK environmental policy There has been a big uptick in the use of systems thinking in UK gov working on environmental and energy policy…we take a look at what’s going on! Feedback welcome! www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.ukNo. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy makingIn recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental… 032
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonECIU @eciu.net · 17/03/2025How is the net zero economy contributing to regions across the UK? Data 🧵 142
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonECIU @eciu.net · 17/03/2025UK net zero by 2050: technically & economically feasible ✅ 6️⃣5️⃣% of all Brits support the net zero target (22% oppose) ✅ Clear majority see renewables & clean tech as top growth sector ✅ 🇬🇧 net zero economy 📈 by 10% in 2024 ✅ Global momentum only going in one direction buff.ly/7Gm9c1F 063
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 12/03/2025Strong agree. In case you missed it we made related argument here - www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.comEconomic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers - Nature EnergyDecision makers need sector-specific, policy-focused, dynamic economic models with rich representations of technological progress. These allow them to understand how the energy transition is likely to... 020
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonNoah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/03/2025In Nature Climate Change, @chrisbataille.bsky.social and I describe three common situations when energy/economic models are detrimental to climate policymaking efforts 🧵 rdcu.be/ecSMXrdcu.beAvoiding misuses of energy-economic modelling in climate policymakingNature Climate Change - Energy-economic models are increasingly being used to inform climate mitigation policies. This Comment describes three situations where models misinform policymakers and... 56926
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonGranite Geek NH @granitegeeknh.bsky.social · 12/03/2025The superpower of solar/storage is that it can be built very quickly. It's also cheap. electrek.co/2025/03/10/s...electrek.coSolar adds more new capacity to the US grid in 2024 than any energy source in 20 yearsThe US installed 50 GW of new solar capacity in 2024, the most new capacity added in a single year of any energy technology in over two decades. 0226
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonMariana Mazzucato @mazzucatom.bsky.social · 12/03/2025School meals not only advance children's education, health and equity–for @NewStatesman I argue that school meals in the UK should be universal and can further climate and economic goals through well-structured investment such as innovative procurement mechanisms. Read more ➡️ buff.ly/oK7GDAz 14012
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonProf Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 07/03/2025Jesus fucking christ 1112531
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJames Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Beyond enraging how same people who were happy to take an economic hit from Brexit because of sovereignty insist we can't take a smaller (and possibly non-existent) economic hit from net zero because it's only about protecting the only known habitable biosphere. www.businessgreen.com/news/4410408...businessgreen.comRishi Sunak: Net zero should be 'noble ambition' rather than legal targetUncertainty surrounds Conservatives' commitment to net zero, as former PM joins Shadow Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick in attacking UK's 2050 climate goal 42715
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 05/03/2025There is no country/zone with a) high prices and low carbon emissions or b) with low prices and high emissions. The higher the carbon emissions from electricity generation in 2024, the higher the prices and vice versa. HT Esko Heinonen 1221992
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonJan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 04/03/2025When I'm told on social media that heat pumps don't work in old buildings I invite people to my 144 year old Victorian house to see it with their own eyes. So far no one has accepted the invitation so I allow you to virtually step inside my house. Come on in! www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5k7...youtube.comMy homeYouTube video by Jan Rosenow 612529
Reposted by Pete Barbrook-JohnsonInstitute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford @inetoxford.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Coming up on Wednesday 5th March 2025 @ 16:30 GMT ➤ The Oxford Systems Thinking Hub: Fireside Chat with Peter Drobac 🙋 In person event 🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-i... #systemsthinking @reubencollege.bsky.social @inet-complexity.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social 042
Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 27/02/2025Final event of this term is on 5 March...sign up now! 063