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Pete Barbrook-Johnson

@bapeterj.bsky.social
2.5K followers 294 following 60 posts

Lecturer in Social Economics, UCL + Teaching Associate, ECI, Oxford. Systems mapping, agent-based modelling, systems and complexity methods in social science. Env and energy policy. www.barbrookjohnson.com

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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
@janrosenow.bsky.social @scurveeconomics.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @ecioxford.bsky.social
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Shiny new paper: Virtuous and vicious cycles in the energy transition We explore how feedback loop dynamics are shaping the energy transition and what it means for decision makers. www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Virtuous and vicious cycles in the energy transition - Nature Reviews Clean Technology
Feedback loops shape the pace and direction of the clean energy transition by accelerating or resisting change. Researchers and practitioners can draw on these feedback loops as practical heuristics t...
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INET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
You can read our briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcasing 4 research programmes from @inetoxford.bsky.social that could help inform decisions @doynefarmer.bsky.social @emilienravigne.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/complex...
inet.ox.ac.uk
Complexity Economics Insights for the Seventh Carbon Budget
This briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcases four research programmes from the University of Oxford’s…
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
*NEW WORKING PAPER* Using vision-language models to extract network data from images of system maps We need to test whether gen AI tools can help with systems mapping. Here, we lay out a formal approach for doing so, and test a specific use case on 7 models. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
inet.ox.ac.uk
No. 2025-26 - Using vision-language models to extract network data…
A range of systems mapping approaches are widely used to support the analysis and design of public policy, but can be time and resource intensive to…
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Applications Now Open The Oxford Climate Society is delighted to announce that applications for the School of Climate Change (SoCC) are open until Saturday 11 October, midnight (11:59pm UK time) oxfordclimatesociety.com/school-of-cl...
oxfordclimatesociety.com
School of Climate Change — Oxford Climate Society
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
www.theguardian.com/education/20...
theguardian.com
Less than Greggs? Public have no idea of value of top universities, study finds
Belief that snack chain’s revenues exceed those of Oxford’s one of many misconceptions about UK’s HE sector
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Really excellent article on approaches to AI and the connections between geopolitics and academia... www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...
theguardian.com
‘I have to do it’: Why one of the world’s most brilliant AI scientists left the US for China
In 2020, after spending half his life in the US, Song-Chun Zhu took a one-way ticket to China. Now he might hold the key to who wins the global AI race
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
4) solar costs are most sensitive to sovereign bond yields and exchange-rate pass-through, whereas wind costs decrease with GDP per capita and foreign direct investment.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
3) global learning accounts for 60–75% of country solar cost declines but virtually none of wind’s (local price pressures negating most wind power learning). ...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
4 main findings: 1) country price dispersion is widening, roughly twice as fast for wind as for solar. 2) country cost rankings are highly persistent. ...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
New @inetoxford.bsky.social working paper from the fantastic Brendon Tankwa. “Who rides the renewable cost curve? Country evidence on prices, learning, and policy.” In it, we kick around country-level cost data on solar and wind every which way we could think of! www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
inet.ox.ac.uk
No. 2025-17 - Who rides the renewable cost curve? Country evidence on…
How fast can every country benefit from renewable cost declines? Using the largest cross-country panel dataset assembled to date, this paper analyzes 34…
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I want to give a huge thanks to all the people (staff and especially students) who made my nearly 5 years at Oxford such a joy, and all the people from CECAN, Surrey, Westminster, and beyond, before then who helped and inspired me. Thank you!
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I will also be an associate at @inetoxford.bsky.social and hope to keep very much involved in The Agile Initiative (but we haven’t quite finalised plans there yet!).
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I will be teaching my master's elective course on complexity and systems thinking for environment there once a year, and continuing to supervise a group of amazing PhD students.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I am sad to be leaving Oxford of course, but could not bring myself to break ties fully, so will remain at the @ecioxford.bsky.social, as a teaching associate.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Of course, the pull of a permanent post, close to home, in such an amazing institution, was a big factor too. I feel very privileged and lucky to have got such a position, given the crazy economics, precarity, and career options in academia.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I will be researching and teaching much the same stuff as I do already (phew!), and believe this new-ish department, with a radical commitment to interdisciplinarity, will be a great fit for my work.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
🚨 Warning 🚨: cheesy career news post incoming 🧀 . Apologies in advance! From mid-September, I am very excited to be joining UCL Arts and Sciences (UASc) as a lecturer in social economics! @artshumsucl.bsky.social
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
New open access paper on how to identify and assess positive tipping points to catalyse the low-carbon transition. This work synthesises a lot of ideas in this space and makes them practical and usable in research and policy work. Check it out: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them - Sustainability Science
Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping point...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
@doynefarmer.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @ecioxford.bsky.social @oxfordgeography.bsky.social
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Fed up with economists using inappropriate methods to study climate change and net zero? Here is a paper for you, "Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy"! We speak to governments about what they need, and show which economic methods can deliver. academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...
academic.oup.com
Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy
Abstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition. Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating? www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...
scurveeconomics.org
System archetypes of the energy transition | S-Curve Economics
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Why the energy transition is non-linear: Excited to share that an article I co-authored on how feedback loops & non-linear thinking can inform climate policy is now published by the @weforum.org. We dive into why systems thinking is crucial for real climate progress. www.weforum.org/stories/2025...
weforum.org
How ‘feedback loops’ and ‘non-linear thinking’ can inform climate policy
Climate policy: The global shift towards a clean-energy system goes beyond technology to a transformation of markets, industries and societal behaviour.
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Decision-makers who understand how to work with these dynamics will have the advantage in navigating the transition...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition. Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating? www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...
scurveeconomics.org
System archetypes of the energy transition | S-Curve Economics
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
🚨 NEW RESEARCH: The energy transition is more disruptive—and could move much faster—than most people think. It’s not just about swapping old tech for new. Shift to clean energy is a complex web of feedback loops, tipping points & surprises. Our new 📖 👇 www.scurveeconomics.org/publications... 🧵
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Anna Murphy @annamurph.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
The climate movement keeps saying 'stop talking about system change' and inaccessible jargon. Well, if this makes you sad then see 'system' and 'feedback loops' and 'levers' jargon put to excellent use in our new report. Summary in @carbonbrief.org too www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...
carbonbrief.org
Guest post: How ‘feedback loops’ and ‘non-linear thinking’ can inform climate policy - Carbon Brief
The global shift towards a clean-energy system is much more than just a technological switch – it is a profound transformation of markets, industries and societal behaviours.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Solar hit 700GW in 2020—10x what was forecast in 2006. Why? Feedback loops & non-linear change, not just tech swaps, drive clean energy. Our new @carbonbrief.org piece: Early policy support + smart market design + cross-sector links = faster decarbonisation. www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
New revamped @cecan.bsky.social fellowship scheme! www.cecan.ac.uk/cecan-fellow... 1) Interact with our team of experts on policy evaluation and analysis, systems thinking and complexity. 2) Work on mini-project related to challenges in your work. Open to anyone working in these areas!
cecan.ac.uk
CECAN Fellowships - CECAN
CECAN has established a Fellowship Scheme for those who wish to participate and contribute to its work. The scheme provides opportunities for those from Government and business to forge useful and las...
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Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford @inetoxford.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
A new working paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social's team develops an approach for using natural language processing in policy analysis. Yuan Fu & Pete show that NLP workflow is full of subjective judgements and choices 🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications... @inet-complexity.bsky.social #complexity
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...
linkedin.com
LLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-Johnson
Recently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...
linkedin.com
LLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-Johnson
Recently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u...
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
🚨 New working paper - geeking out on systems mapping 🤓 *Using natural language processing to create prelim system maps* www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
inet.ox.ac.uk
2025-09 - Using NLP to create preliminary causal system maps for use…
The use of causal systems mapping in interdisciplinary and policy research has increased in recent years. Causal system maps typically rely on stakeholder…
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
New guidance on using LLMs to support systems mapping exercises. LLMs can be a useful tool, but only as a complement to a wider exercise. The won't do your systems thinking for you! www.cecan.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
cecan.ac.uk
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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/03/2025
THREAD: How the Sun screwed up its "smoking gun" story on net-zero study The Sun: "As much as 10% wld be wiped off economic growth by end of decade" Source: "At no point does this study suggest there will be a drop in UK GDP. It talks abt a 10% transfer…within GDP" Oops! 1/10
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INET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
The latest paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social with Domenica Cox and Alexandra Penn examines systems thinking in UK environmental policy making www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
inet.ox.ac.uk
No. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy making
In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental…
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
New working paper! 🚨 Systems thinking in UK environmental policy There has been a big uptick in the use of systems thinking in UK gov working on environmental and energy policy…we take a look at what’s going on! Feedback welcome! www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
inet.ox.ac.uk
No. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy making
In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental…
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ECIU @eciu.net · 17/03/2025
How is the net zero economy contributing to regions across the UK? Data 🧵
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ECIU @eciu.net · 17/03/2025
UK net zero by 2050: technically & economically feasible ✅ 6️⃣5️⃣% of all Brits support the net zero target (22% oppose) ✅ Clear majority see renewables & clean tech as top growth sector ✅ 🇬🇧 net zero economy 📈 by 10% in 2024 ✅ Global momentum only going in one direction buff.ly/7Gm9c1F
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Strong agree. In case you missed it we made related argument here - www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers - Nature Energy
Decision makers need sector-specific, policy-focused, dynamic economic models with rich representations of technological progress. These allow them to understand how the energy transition is likely to...
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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
In Nature Climate Change, @chrisbataille.bsky.social and I describe three common situations when energy/economic models are detrimental to climate policymaking efforts 🧵 rdcu.be/ecSMX
rdcu.be
Avoiding misuses of energy-economic modelling in climate policymaking
Nature Climate Change - Energy-economic models are increasingly being used to inform climate mitigation policies. This Comment describes three situations where models misinform policymakers and...
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Granite Geek NH @granitegeeknh.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
The superpower of solar/storage is that it can be built very quickly. It's also cheap. electrek.co/2025/03/10/s...
electrek.co
Solar adds more new capacity to the US grid in 2024 than any energy source in 20 years
The US installed 50 GW of new solar capacity in 2024, the most new capacity added in a single year of any energy technology in over two decades.
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Mariana Mazzucato @mazzucatom.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
School meals not only advance children's education, health and equity–for @NewStatesman I argue that school meals in the UK should be universal and can further climate and economic goals through well-structured investment such as innovative procurement mechanisms. Read more ➡️ buff.ly/oK7GDAz
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Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Jesus fucking christ
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James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Beyond enraging how same people who were happy to take an economic hit from Brexit because of sovereignty insist we can't take a smaller (and possibly non-existent) economic hit from net zero because it's only about protecting the only known habitable biosphere. www.businessgreen.com/news/4410408...
businessgreen.com
Rishi Sunak: Net zero should be 'noble ambition' rather than legal target
Uncertainty surrounds Conservatives' commitment to net zero, as former PM joins Shadow Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick in attacking UK's 2050 climate goal
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
There is no country/zone with a) high prices and low carbon emissions or b) with low prices and high emissions. The higher the carbon emissions from electricity generation in 2024, the higher the prices and vice versa. HT Esko Heinonen
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
When I'm told on social media that heat pumps don't work in old buildings I invite people to my 144 year old Victorian house to see it with their own eyes. So far no one has accepted the invitation so I allow you to virtually step inside my house. Come on in! www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5k7...
youtube.com
My home
YouTube video by Jan Rosenow
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Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford @inetoxford.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Coming up on Wednesday 5th March 2025 @ 16:30 GMT ➤ The Oxford Systems Thinking Hub: Fireside Chat with Peter Drobac 🙋 In person event 🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-i... #systemsthinking @reubencollege.bsky.social @inet-complexity.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social
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Pete Barbrook-Johnson @bapeterj.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Final event of this term is on 5 March...sign up now!
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