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B.

@balvasen.eurosky.social
14 followers 50 following 19 posts

Econometrics & Public Policy. Education.

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Reposted by B.
Julien Hoez @julienhoez.eu · 07/10/2026
This situation is so German CDU 🤡 Merz: ‘Let’s protect Europe from unfair Chinese trade practices and focus on European Strategic Autonomy w/ France’ Some CDU cowboys in the EPP: ‘How about, instead, we kill the Industrial Accelerator Act and Made in Europe because “gna gna gna free trade”’
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 27/09/2026
open.spotify.com/intl-es/trac...
open.spotify.com
A Love of Some Kind
Adrianne Lenker · Hours Were the Birds · Canción · 2014
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Guillermo Zapata @gzapata.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Adam Tooze te lo explica y a mi terminó de convencerme de que la idea de "economia antifascista" no es suficiente. Se trata de construir algo que le de sentido (identidad) a esa economía. De nuevo, lo cultural en lo material. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
adamtooze.substack.com
Chartbook 473 Germany’s democratic earthquake: the AfD breakthrough in Sachsen-Anhalt and the question of an “alternative to the Alternative”.
Germany’s democracy has suffered an earthquake.
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
European carmakers waking up to International Relations 101 “other countries can do industrial policy and not adjusting will bite you” lessons
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Manuel Hidalgo @manujhidalgo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Analizo en @cincodias.bsky.social el cambio estructural (sectorial) de la economía española. La burbuja y recuperación vía servicios hasta 2013 explican buena parte de nuestra pérdida de posición tecnológica. Solo últimos años enmiendan parte de lo perdido. cincodias.elpais.com/economia/202...
cincodias.elpais.com
España desde el año 2000: cambiar todo para no movernos
De las grandes economías europeas, la española es la que más ha cambiado su estructura productiva en más de dos décadas
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
That's right. German politics should dial down how seriously they take the CEO's lobbying, who have a deplorable track record of short-termism and geopolitical naivite - and make policy based on evidence and what is good for the country.
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 07/08/2026
Good answer. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/u...
We've spoken about capitalism versus socialism.
Do you want to talk about capitalism? Let's talk about capitalism. Are you recording? Capitalism is about leveraging the laws of supply and demand to efficiently allocate capital expenditure to maximize value. When capitalism works, it's because you have free entry and exit into markets. So if you believe in capitalism, you have to believe in government regulation to protect markets. In fact, right now, we have exactly the opposite. You don't have to be a socialist to believe that you should be taxing billionaires their wealth. In fact, if you are a capitalist, you should believe in that. So, I'm capitalist who just knows about capitalism. I have a bad habit of reading, I'm so sorry.
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 07/08/2026
"The reaction to the scenes that broke out in Ceuta was, in many ways, a regression to the mean and a reaffirmation that the EU remains a collection of states (...) EU member states have relapsed into their habit of scapegoating." foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/05/c...
foreignpolicy.com
The Ceuta Crisis Reveals the Limits of European Defense Cooperation
In their willingness to blame Spain, European leaders have shown they cannot be trusted on collective security.
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 31/07/2026
Este hilo está muy bien, pero desde este post hacia abajo da una perspectiva sobre el estrecho en la que pocos han reparado.
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/07/2026
Infraestructura física y energía: Fabricantes de chips monopolísticos (Nvidia, ASML) y proveedores de electricidad (centros de datos) Datos y leyes: Quienes posean datos protegidos por copyright. Trabajadores insustituibles: valor es juicio humano, creatividad y relaciones personales.
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/07/2026
TL;DR: El dinero de la IA no se lo quedarán los creadores de software (OpenAI o Anthropic), ya que la inteligencia digital es fácil de copiar y su precio está colapsando. Las ganancias reales irán a parar a lo que siga siendo escaso, que será: substack.com/@briancalbre...
substack.com
Where the returns to AI go
The scarce return earns the rents. So what remains scarce?
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Rude Law Dog @esghound.com · 15/07/2026
correct and just punishment for making "oasis" your middle ager national rock band instead of "pulp"
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
1/12 WSJ: "Germany’s famously open economy was its greatest economic asset, delivering almost 20 years of uninterrupted growth and turning it into one of the biggest winners of globalization." I think I would have framed this differently. www.wsj.com/world/europe...
wsj.com
The Openness That Powered Germany’s Economy Is Now Its Biggest Weakness
The country that once led the world in exports has been stuck in neutral since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 27/06/2026
Bromas aparte, si esto se vuelve tendencia puede será una catástrofe económica y social. Aquí hay muchísimos empleos en juego. La culpa es de las malas decisiones del capital privado y de la dejación de funciones de los Estados, pero todavía no es tarde para rectificar. Hay que querer, eso sí.
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Just in time to mark the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum with a seventh Prime Minister in that time. Whoever took back control, it wasn't the occupant of 10 Downing Street.
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 15/06/2026
Muy interesante. La pregunta no es cuándo la economía del petróleo colapsa, es qué pasa cuando la venta de gasolina y diésel deja de financiar la estructura de refinado porque ya no hay volumen suficiente. Eso pasará mucho antes que el fin del petróleo. therewnewableguru.substack.com/p/the-great-...
therewnewableguru.substack.com
The great oil inflection
Who pays when petrol stops paying the refinery’s rent
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Jorge Tamames @jorgetamames.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Esto salvo excepciones honrosas es así. Y es así por una mezcla de conformismo y frivolidad, no porque hayan faltado propuestas para para tratar estos temas de forma constructiva.
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Monik🐜🎱 @86monik48.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Yo dando ánimos a alguien :
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Landposmo @landposmo.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
La temperatura y aclimatación debe ser ya una necesidad básica asegurada. Como el agua. Como el oxígeno, como la comida. Y aquí hay decisiones políticas detrás pero también hay muchísima gente que sigue siendo negacionista en la práctica, sigue sin tomarse en serio el peligro que supone el calor.
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 05/06/2026
En este artículo de opinión está muy bien explicado lo pésimo que sería retomar el "impuesto al sol". A ver si alguien se lo hace llegar a Alberto Nadal. cincodias.elpais.com/economia/202...
cincodias.elpais.com
¿Por qué es muy mala idea gravar al sol?
Si lo que preocupa es la desigualdad en el acceso al autoconsumo, la respuesta no son impuestos distorsionadores, sino un sistema fiscal progresivo sobre la renta y un gasto público bien dirigido
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mariambascu.bsky.social @mariambascu.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Sobre el Consejo de Estado, los expresidentes que nunca lo ocuparon, y lo que esa silla vacía dice sobre el momento que vivimos. Mi columna de hoy en @elpais.com elpais.com/opinion/2026...
elpais.com
La silla vacía
Una democracia no se mide solo por las instituciones que tiene, sino por las que sus protagonistas eligen ocupar
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Paul Waldman @paulwaldman.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
ProPublica used leaked tax returns to calculate that through complex tax avoidance schemes, Jeff Bezos pays a tax rate of 0.98% www.propublica.org/article/the-... So if we doubled the taxes he pays, that would mean he'd still be paying less than 2%.
propublica.org
The Secret IRS Files: Trove of Never-Before-Seen Records Reveal How the Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax
ProPublica has obtained a vast cache of IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their massive wealth — sometimes, ev...
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
terrible. 20 years ago, the internet was full of hobbyist blogs and forums. over time, these have been replaced by paywalled substacks and private discord channels, each a walled garden. google's decision to prioritize AI just makes it less likely people will create free, public info
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/05/2026
Lo que resalta de la influencia de las telenovelas, que proyectaban la imagen de familias más pequeñas, como influencia en una menor natalidad es incríeble. Al final somos en gran parte (y sin darnos cuenta) hijos de la cultura popular que reina antes de nacer y en nuestros primeros 30 años de vida
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/05/2026
"One possibility is that social media intensifies and consolidates people’s reactions to trends such as housing difficulties (...) amplifying economic concerns, and creating a persistent sense of insecurity and worry that can act as a prophylactic."
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/05/2026
“To meet a person you are going to marry requires filtering through a lot of people. If you socialise much less, it takes you much longer to find a match if you find one at all.”
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B. @balvasen.eurosky.social · 17/05/2026
"If you spend lots of time socialising with your peers in the real world, your standards [for a potential partner] are anchored in the real world. If you spend your time on Instagram, your standards are anchored to an artificial sense of what is normal." www.ft.com/content/fba3...
ft.com
Why birth rates are falling everywhere all at once
Homes and phones are part of the reason for the demographic shift changing our world
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Jack Meyer @jackbmeyer.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
I’ve been holding off in pursuit of other topics, but I figured it’s about time I write my “why institutions” article: open.substack.com/pub/jackbmey...
open.substack.com
In Defence of Institutions
Why Institutions Matter and Why You Should Care
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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
China's oil imports fell almost 30% in April, to the lowest level in a decade, a dramatic drop well highlighted by @javierblas.bsky.social. He tries to find a "big" explanation and comes up short - likely because there isn't one: there drop is rather a result of multiple adjustments.
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 25/04/2026
Una de las cosas más irónicas de las renovables es que donde se instalan paneles fotovoltaicos suele haber más biodiversidad, principalmente porque implica que ahí hay menos actividad humana (agrícola y de otros tipos). www.ecoportal.net/en/solar-pan...
ecoportal.net
Solar panels were known to attract birds, but they are now drawing in species never seen in these areas before
New research from the University of Cambridge has found that some birds species are making a triumphant return to the area around solar panels in England.
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Olga Rodríguez Francisco @olgarodriguezfr.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Israel asesina a la periodista Amal Khalil en Líbano. El Ejército israelí disparó contra un coche, Amal y otra periodista salieron de su coche y se refugiaron en una casa, el Ejército israelí atacó la casa y después disparó contra los equipos de rescate e impidió su acceso durante horas
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Julian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Maybe the most depressing conclusion I’ve come around to in the past decade (and there are many) is that trying to teach & promote widespread “critical thinking” has been a complete and catastrophic failure. Most of the population is not capable of it, and it is socially disastrous when they try.
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Jorge Tamames @jorgetamames.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
In a world where many democrats have embraced pie-in-the-sky middle class tax cuts, leave it to a democratic socialist like Mamdani to seriously engage with budgeting tradeoffs and embrace an efficient broad based property tax increase
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Juan Fernandez @juanfernandez.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Después de muchos años compartiendo evidencias, ahora estoy cada vez más interesado en las condiciones epistémicas de uso de la ciencia en general. Reflexiono sobre ello aquí: open.substack.com/pub/investig...
open.substack.com
El problema no es la falta de evidencia. Es la falta de criterio.
Pensar con la evidencia: una cuestión de competencia profesional
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Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 09/03/2026
Electing this guy twice is really bad. But the real reason the US cannot be trusted is that it has been unable to impeach him.
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Galisha M. Blake @srtagalicia.eurosky.social · 05/03/2026
Bueno, vamos a explicar qué hostias es @eurosky.social, cómo migrar, porqué migrar y todos esos rollos.
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Xan López @xanlopez.net · 06/03/2026
Por un lado tenemos guerra en Oriente Medio, potencial bloqueo de exportaciones y petróleo por las nubes. Por otro lado gente progresista actuando como si las renovables fuesen el mayor problema del mundo y no la mejor solución disponible para capear el temporal. Alguien no vive en el presente.
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Héctor Tejero @htejero.eurosky.social · 06/03/2026
Hay que seguir instalando renovables pero frente a los chantajes del poder fósil y la inestabilidad de su régimen la prioridad está en la electrificación. Electrificar calderas y calefacciones. Electrificar el transporte (y reducir el vehículo privado a combustión). Y poner más baterías.
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Neil Lewis @neil-lewis.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The easiest analytical assumption to make whenever Trump does something is that he hasn't thought it through at all. And yet everytime commentators contort themselves into believing there's some kind of strategy.
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Assaad Razzouk @assaadrazzouk.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
A 50% price spike isn’t a 'market trend' - it’s a mugging. Gas and oil imports are a ransom. 100% Renewables are the only true declaration of independence. Stop paying the extortionists. Cut the cord.
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Joan Groizard @groizard.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Cada aerogenerador, cada panel fotovoltaico, cada bomba de calor y cada motor eléctrico que sustituyen a sus predecesores fósiles reducen un poquito nuestra exposición a esto. Todo el mercado petrolero y gasista pendiente de este estrecho 👇
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Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD @elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right. Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement. This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.
The political effects of X's feed algorithm
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2
Received: 16 December 2024
Accepted: 4 January 2026
Published online: 18 February 2026
Open access
• Check for updates
Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m
Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects.
Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.
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Thomas Germain @thomasgermain.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
I just did the dumbest thing of my entire career to prove a much more serious point. I tricked ChatGPT and Google, and made them tell other users I’m a competitive hot-dog-eating world champion People are using this trick on a massive scale to make AI tell you lies. I’ll explain how I did it
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