iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 2h

“How about we do the ACI, again, but make it harder for us to not use it this time”

Reposted by Sam Lowe

Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

New MFN: The EU is consulting on new diversification tools while not saying exactly what they are. Plus: IAA, rules of origin, and the problem with defining “Made in Europe”. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/displaceme...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

Displacement Activity

DiversifyEU, IAA and a chart

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

mostfavourednation.substack.com

Displacement Activity

DiversifyEU, IAA and a chart

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

**looks longingly at his collection of wool jumper** One day. One day …

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I’d note that all the negotiations (Turkey, Morocco, UK, etc) on IAA equivalence will probably be next year …

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Good morning from rather stormy Long Island

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Every time I go to the US I am reminded of the one area where the UK has undisputed total superiority: plug sockets.

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Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

⬇️⬇️⬇️💯💯💯 🎵 I fought the law* And the law* won 🎵 *of gravity

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Canada will struggle to deepen economic ties with the EU for the same reasons the UK failed to break them. New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

Gravity Always Wins

Alas.

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Chris Grey @chrisgrey.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Excellent as ever from @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, and I'm sure he's right about the trade aspect. But, as he says, it's the "trade-adjacent" (and what I'd call geo-political) aspects which may be more practically significant and, certainly, which have more symbolic significance. 1/3

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Tom Jenkins @tomoljenkins.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In addition to CETA, EU and Canada in 2017 agreed (still provisionally too) this rather dated Strategic Partnership Agreement dealing with political cooperation. This could form the basis of a deeper 'Association Agreement' to complement the trade measures data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document...

data.consilium.europa.eu

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I think this is broadly right, gravity is gravity. *but* for bulk commodities, we are useful as a marginal seller. For manufacturing, defense, data centres, we have lots of land and electricity. And most of our population lives along the st lawrence on the eastern side

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

For oil and LNG the big problem is that we don't have export capacity! But now that we are adding it, and we do carbon adjustment its more of an attractive option. For gold, we now export as much monetary value to the UK in gold as to the US in oil. its wild

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

i think i mostly agree outside of bulk commodities that do global trips like that. which is half of the idea. I think the rest of it is like defense and stuff

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Canada will struggle to deepen economic ties with the EU for the same reasons the UK failed to break them. New MFN: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/gravity-al...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

Gravity Always Wins

Alas.

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Haeyoon Kim 김혜윤 @haeyoonkim.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

S Korea's first U.S.-bound investment announcement reportedly delayed over three issues: 1. Washington’s push for greater investment in a Texas gas-fired power plant; 2. Seoul’s bid for a larger Westinghouse stake and board seat; 3. Seoul’s concerns over the Alaska LNG project’s commercial viability

koreajoongangdaily.com

Inside the Korea-U.S. $200 billion investment package tug-of-war

Seoul delayed its U.S. investment package as disputes persist over a Texas power plant, a Westinghouse stake and Alaska liquefied natural gas.

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

*Opens Bluesky for the first time in a few days* Time to share some views on cyclists in London …

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Countries with an association agreement with the EU: Algeria Chile Egypt Georgia Israel Jordan Lebanon Moldova Morocco Palestine (interim) Tunisia Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Ukraine

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Just in case people are wondering, this is not me.

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Ed Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

🙌 Thrilled beyond words to have learned that TRADE WORLD made it into the bestseller charts in its first week out there in the wild. Who'd have bet a nerdy supply chain book could be up there with celeb memoirs?! It's mad. Thank you SO much to everyone who's bought a copy 🙏

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

So close, and yet so far. (Ie one more trip in the long queue.)

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Things my children have eaten today (1130AM): 6yo: Cheerios, pizza, milk 2yo: Apricot, Cheerios, banana, croissant, cucumber, carrots, raisin, chips, chicken nuggets, milk, rice cake

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

The Freund tariff finding would be consistent with Gopinath’s theory of how exporters absorb a fair amount of $ depreciation in margins rather than lose market share, so there’s less inflation passthru from currency. Back of my mind kept wondering why tariffs would be different.

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/08/2026

This is well done, h/t @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social. But I have further questions. If the burden sharing was as large as the authors claim, why did import price indices (which are value weighted NOT averages) not show material declines? Because they simply did not.

cepr.org

Foreign exporters absorbed nearly half of the 2025 US tariff shock

When the US imposed sweeping tariff increases in 2025, most economic forecasters predicted a sharp rise in consumer prices and significant import disruption. Instead, retail prices rose modestly and i...

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Our little known reputation for being absolute bastards in trade negotiation

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

This week, I've written about, well ... y'know ... Canada. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/blame-cana...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

Blame Canada?

Also, tariff incidence, company deals, and FAST

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Robert Wolfe @bobwolfe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

it wasn't just dairy. No sense dairy was even the top of the long list

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 23/08/2026

If you’re not familiar with supply management, this is 10 years old but might be a useful explainer if you don’t get what Sam is referring to: www.ft.com/content/3697...

ft.com

The protectionist policy controlling Canadian milk prices

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Funny if after all the different theories it turns out the US-Canada blow up was ultimately over dairy, as always.

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Lot of animosity towards TFL this week. (Closing the Piccadilly line for three days.)

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Big breaking news from Chinese media: CCTV says Beijing has ordered entities not ‌to implement or assist with the ⁠EU's foreign subsidies probe into e-commerce giant JD.com, saying it constituted "improper extraterritorial jurisdiction"

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

What even is transshipment, I hear you ask … mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/what-even-...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

What Even is Transshipment?

... and is it always bad?

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Love how all middle age fitness things are like “you need to prioritise sleep” and yet my two year old has decided to wake up at 4:50 and what are going going to do about that then, ey?

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

If you are overheating in central London, I have a solution: the Tottenham Court Road M&S. Thank me later.

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Didn’t even want to be able to see my children’s faces ever again, anyway

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Reposted by Sam Lowe

Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Calling all euronerds! @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social is hiring in Brussels. A chance to join our great team, at one of the best small think-tanks in Europe, and to influence the future development of the EU.

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Current status: locked out of the flat because the rest of my family is napping. Oh well.

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Inu Manak @inumanak.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I am excited to join @piie.com, where I will continue to advance my research on U.S. trade policy alongside a leading group of experts committed to advancing global prosperity and developing practical policy solutions to contemporary economic challenges.

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Shawn O'Connor @shawn-z-oconnor.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

As someone constantly asked how I started my career in trade policy and negotiations, here is a great primer! (Aside from @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social’s belief that services negotiators are one trick ponies, having started my career negotiating NCMs) mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/how-do-you...

mostfavourednation.substack.com

How Do You Get a Job in Trade Policy?

Holiday edition

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Thought I’d take some time out from my holiday (okay, find an excuse to sit inside in A/C) to answer one of the questions I get asked the most: How do I get a job in trade policy? open.substack.com/pub/mostfavo...

open.substack.com

How Do You Get a Job in Trade Policy?

Holiday edition

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Had to step away from the holiday for a couple of days to do some work. Some hard hard work.

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Arguably, the new Section 301 on forced labour puts the UK (10% + MFN tariff) is a worse position, for these duties at least, than the EU (10% net of MFN tariff)

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

It's a bit more like No10 in the upper-midlands, right?

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

In this week's MFN, I discuss a troubling discovery that absolutely nobody could have ever predicted: mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/trade-nerd...

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Things we actually love to see: the brawling

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Trump announcing new tariffs on Spain in 3, 2, 1 …

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