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Andy Timm

@andytimm.bsky.social
349 followers 495 following 200 posts

Data scientist @ Grow Progress, testing Dem ads. Usually thinking about methods for survey weighting, efficient causal inference, or scalable Bayes. andytimm.github.io

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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
nutpieR now supports bringing your own custom density kernel! By supplying your own log density and full gradient evaluation, you can frequently obtain severalfold speedups for Bayesian models. In a test across 112 models from posteriordb, my median speedup was 4.8x (!).
graph showing speedups from switching from vanilla nutpieR to nutpieR with custom density kernels. Average speed up is ~7.38x, and median is ~4.8x.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Would love to hear more bilingual folks on this, it’s fascinating.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Guy who hates AIPAC because they assume it’s Analyst Institute
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Glad Mexico lost and their fans will be out of the World Cup :)
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Can highly recommend this pairing, I’m very much on my bullshit this week
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
This implies the existence of the LPM Group, yes? If so, I’m sure they’re sworn enemies, competing for the same work.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Thinking of this basic point from Ansolabehere and Fraga today for no particular reason.
Abstract from Ansolabehere and Fraga articulating why you can’t “control for party” coherently like the Supreme Court judges think
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
They posted the raw data for this, fascinating: Notes so far: 1. It looks like these responses exist to make the weights converge, given the synth respondents have NA for non-weighting Qs? 2. The MoE excludes the synthetic respondents. I guess that's better than treating them as 1:1 for humans?
docs.google.com
The Public Sentiment Institute - National Poll (March 20th) - March 21 Release
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Bayesian friends- if you’re curious to try out the blazingly fast nutpie sampler in R, I just put together a pretty lightweight package that’ll compile your existing Stan models!
github.com
GitHub - andytimm/nutpieR
Contribute to andytimm/nutpieR development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
I have a joke about bayes factors but nobody really thinks I should tell it
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
A big part of the way I think about survey weighting is through connections to causal inference. One thing that emerges from that perspective: regularized weights are pretty, pretty good! I really like @shiraamitchell.bsky.social ‘s discussion of this connection here, esp the Johansson reference.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Survey Statistics: sampling-weighted loss | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
New R package release day, woo :) Regularized raking makes it easier to build complex survey weights that reduce bias without paying as heavy a high variance price. regrake makes building these weights convenient in R. Check it out!
andytimm.github.io
regrake: Regularized Raking in R – Andy Timm
New year, new package release
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
This is also the face I make when doing bayes, very cool mr. coypu! Looks like a cool, short bayes intro book!
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
AAPOR program’s up. So much cool work this year- really stoked to hear about all of it! I’ll be sharing some of GP’s work on bot/LLM detection, and also our work on survey experiment designs that manipulate attention in-survey to understand how noisier environments modify ad effects.
aapor.confex.com
81st Annual AAPOR Conference
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
I finished CS336 (Language Modeling from Scratch) from @stanfordnlp.bsky.social It was a fantastic way to get back into the weeds with recent LLM training/arch advances and strengthen my systems engineering skills. I wrote up a short review + some practical tips for other auditors-
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Andy Masley @andymasley.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
More like the tech wrong
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Jarrett Byrnes @jebyrnes.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Could. Not. Resist.
Simpson’s paradox with the Simpsons graph
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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
That new Bonica et al paper that's being passed around with claims that moderating hurts turnout doesn't have much turnout analysis in it at all, and certainty not enough for that conclusion open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
So I was thinking about MIT’s “missing semester” course (missing.csail.mit.edu) on skills needed but often not explicitly taught. What are some stats/survey stats equivalents y’all find super important- that is, important for research/practice, not commonly classroom taught?
missing.csail.mit.edu
The Missing Semester of Your CS Education
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Congressman Don Beyer @beyer.house.gov · 12/02/2025
This is an absolute scandal. Trump and Marco Rubio abandoned American workers and their families abroad, delaying waivers to provide for their safe return to the United States. As these civil servants lost their possessions, housing, and money, Elon Musk was slandering them with bogus accusations.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Don’t love the guy to put it mildly, but I have a ton of respect for him here.
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Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Reminder that ipums.org has all the acs, census, CPS, NHIS, MEPS, and so much more. Bonus that it’s cleaned and harmonized in ways that make these data really easy to use in practice.
ipums.org
Homepage | IPUMS
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 30/01/2025
AMFAR has published a report on how the foreign aid freeze affects PEPFAR, which actually still hasn't resumed. They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day* 🧵
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Thanks very much to everybody who chimed in on this thread about attention --I wrote up some notes! My conclusion from the discussion is that polisci should coordinate on an info board / faux feed design to study (probs v. heterogeneous effects on attention) alexandercoppock.com/attention.pdf
alexandercoppock.com
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
🤡
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Like Bayes, Jaynes, thinking about prior specification, or Kangaroos drinking Fosters? New post: andytimm.github.io/posts/kangar...
andytimm.github.io
Kangaroos, Foster’s, and E.T. Jaynes – Andy Timm
Also maybe some thoughts on priors
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
I’ve been thinking about this tension lately- Trump gets credit for grabbing attention well, but a key story of last cycle is his strength with low-engagement folks. One way to resolve this is that making news might sort of sieve-like; you need to be constantly high viz everywhere to get through.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Our product and engineering teams are both hiring! Grow Progress is a wonderful place to work, and our platform supports highly impactful candidates and organizations on the left. Come joins us! Shoot me a DM if you’re interested and have questions. Links in 🧵
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
Another incredible essay. Some striking passages to get you interested:
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Doug Gordon @brooklynspoke.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Gottheimer keeps using the "hardworking families" line but apparently does not apply that term to hardworking families who rely on the bus or the train. The only people who matter to him are the small number of people who drive into Manhattan.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Unfortunate news for those of hoping to create a healthy “niche election maps guy” ecosystem over here
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Bunch of great papers here. Also, not my circus and not my monkeys, what does it say about academic publishing that something as obviously meritorious and practically useful as PSIS took that long to get published? 9 years!?
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
It’s happening 😃 (The trailing off of today’s data in the graphs is a bit hard to read, but oh well)
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
We’re internalizing your externalities 😃
NY Post cover complaining about congestion pricing
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
Did I stay up to midnight for New Years? No. Did I stay up to midnight to celebrate congestion pricing? Hell yes I did! Congratulations to all the folks who worked so hard to make this happen in the face of such bad faith opposition, it will make a huge difference for NYC.
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Metropolitan Transportation Authority @mta.info · 04/01/2025
It’s happening! Tonight, MTA Chair & CEO Janno Lieber unveiled one of the signs at the entrance to the Congestion Relief Zone. Tolling begins at midnight. Learn more: congestionreliefzone.mta.info
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Everyone needs to reconsider their “best/most important papers of 2024” if they missed this: arxiv.org/abs/2501.00536
arxiv.org
Phase behavior of Cacio and Pepe sauce
"Pasta alla Cacio e pepe" is a traditional Italian dish made with pasta, pecorino cheese, and pepper. Despite its simple ingredient list, achieving the perfect texture and creaminess of the sauce can ...
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Lots of fantastic stuff here, some of which I hadn’t seen and am excited to read.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
A few books I found particularly valuable/important/fun this year 🧵 Introduction to Modern Causal Inference Convex Optimization Polling at a Crossroads We Have Never Been Woke The Point of View of the Universe The Hollow Parties Unsong Does Anything really Matter? Essays on Parfit …
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Daniel Laurison @daniellaurison.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
So my research team and I have interviewed over 250 poor and working class people in Pennsylvania about their views of politics. One thing I keep thinking about that we heard - including in a follow-up interview just last week - is a dislike of politics that seems too much like entertainment.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
Great thread from Chris on this paper. I love being pessimistic about voter attitudes towards YIMBY stuff too, but maybe we should pump the breaks a bit.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Vibecession remains a bit wild and rather disturbing. I kinda expected something like this, but seeing the chart is still jarring. From ( @pkrugman.bsky.social ‘s new substack).
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Wow, that’s quite the upward trend! It’s quite fun to be working in survey experiments land while this happens.
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American Association for Public Opinion Research @aapor.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
AAPOR issues a statement regarding the Trump. v. Selzer, Selzer & Company, Des Moines Register & Tribune Company & Gannett Co. Lawsuit. Read more here: bit.ly/4gHwhqb
bit.ly
AAPOR Statement on the TRUMP v. J. ANN SELZER, SELZER & COMPANY, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY, and GANNETT CO., INC. Lawsuit - AAPOR
As a non-partisan organization, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is dedicated to championing the value of sound public opinion research. We aim to ensure the significance o...
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
A nice follow up to the @upshot.nytimes.com piece a while ago.
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Does anyone of any political science work looking to extend the “Steadfast Democrats” (linked) social constraint type argument to Latino vote choice in the past few cycles? I’ve seen a few different non-public results that make that case re:2024, so I’m curious if there’s further academic work.
press.princeton.edu
Steadfast Democrats
A groundbreaking look at how group expectations unify Black Americans in their support of the Democratic party
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Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Very cool paper addressing some challenges in effect generalization!
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Rob 🚀☘️ @rjszczerba.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
I was today years old when I realized that the word "GULLIBLE" in all caps, but upside down, looks like a cowboy chasing a horse.
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