Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I assume you say, looks like it uses real usage when doing real work, not just lighter stuff with the dot? 211
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026So I just did a quick check, but the main gap I notice, looking at the silver bulletin data at least, has Morning Consult and HarrisX meaningfully redder, whereas plenty of political-first firms I know use panels are much bluer. So maybe a slightly better gloss is in fact MR vs. politics firms? 031
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026MSA also looks better (again, still reading, and so it’s not perfect, but less of a shitshow at least) 010
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026typesafe.ai/legal/terms I think same page you had up before? Obviously, IANAL, and I mostly noticed this when my weekend “hey wtf” screenshot didn’t match another of our engineers’ as of this morning in the “License Restrictions” section at least. Still need to read more.typesafe.aiTerms of use - TypeSafe AITypeSafe AI is an AI lab building machine-native intelligence infrastructure for automation, designed to make decisions within software. Try our first System One Model, Jev, in early access. 200
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Auto-correct absolutely fucking wrecked me like this yesterday 010
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Believe this is a router/blend thing- x.com/eliebakouch/... Not certain and they’ve edited the screenshotted oage since, but would be pretty weird to have a page documenting it as that for no reason.x.comelie (@eliebakouch) on Xupdate again: it's a router lol https://t.co/5Zb55dJTfJ good catch @JulienBlanchon 210
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Happy sampling! Check it out in the release blog post: andytimm.github.io/posts/nutpie...andytimm.github.ioBring Your Own Density Kernel with nutpieR – Andy TimmFaster sampling via per-model specialization 000
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Great work like Alchemize from @pymc-labs.bsky.social has illustrated that building custom kernels is a nicely shaped coding agent task with a clear validation loop. As a result, supplying your own density kernel is much easier than it sounds these days, as I discuss more in the post below. 130
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026nutpieR now supports bringing your own custom density kernel! By supplying your own log density and full gradient evaluation, you can frequently obtain severalfold speedups for Bayesian models. In a test across 112 models from posteriordb, my median speedup was 4.8x (!). 130
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Exciting! This is a bit like if Floating Points dropped a banger Political Analysis paper 000
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 03/09/2026As someone who hit da bricks for greener pastures a while back, good shit: good choice, enjoy the doing something new! 130
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Would love to hear more bilingual folks on this, it’s fascinating. 040
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026My experience with French is that it’s not an identical experience but it rhymes? Like the cadence/discursive ticks aren’t the exact same, but it recognizably feels like claudish. I’d be curious to see if that matches a more native speaker’s experience- my French is pretty functional but not fluent 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026I’ve been meaning to read this for a bit, good to see this come up 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Did a miss a high profile example of this going on? Curious if folks tweeting about this is a subtweet of some recent paper lol 110
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Guy who hates AIPAC because they assume it’s Analyst Institute 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 17/07/2026I genuinely don’t think I’ve gotten a different opinion than this one in asking about the solo work 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Glad Mexico lost and their fans will be out of the World Cup :) 061
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Can highly recommend this pairing, I’m very much on my bullshit this week 000
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 14/06/2026The extender strikes again. NBA calling in their least honest officials He clearly isn’t actually allowed to be given a flagrant or he’d have been suspended more than once at this point 050
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 04/06/2026Did Games Workshop let you know early the Emperor was returning? Lovely! 010
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 11/05/2026This implies the existence of the LPM Group, yes? If so, I’m sure they’re sworn enemies, competing for the same work. 110
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 30/04/2026The bigger problem of course, is that the justices are mostly partisan hacks in robes. But at the same time, a better society might have slightly higher standards for basic causal reasoning (or willingness to listen to social scientists/statisticians)! 000
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 30/04/2026Thinking of this basic point from Ansolabehere and Fraga today for no particular reason. 100
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 01/04/2026IIRC, test-retest reliability isn’t great, and the concepts only indirectly map onto psychometrically valid constructs. There’s also some weirdness in emphasizing dichotomizing e.g. E vs. I when the underlying construct has a lot of middle ground most people occupy. (Not my area of expertise, tbc) 120
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026It’s a bit of both from poking around- They have some misleading language about certain questions not leveraging AI responses, but there are a handful which do have synthetic responses. So they’re both filling out quotas + making the weighting work + actually generating some select responses. 120
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026Realizing I'm likely wrong above, apologies. (There's a lot that's odd here!) TL;DR is some questions do have synthetic responses, so I assume this is to provide more "data" on those and flesh out crosstabs. 000
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026I was poking a bit more, I actually think it's to make a handful of the questions/"crosstabs" possible? Sorry for the bad explanation, a bit spoiled for choice on explanations of why this is weird. 120
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026hrm, realizing I'm wrong about the weights stabilization thing: I think it's to make the crosstabs ("crosstabs"?) viable? Ick. I had a Claude rake this and you can get it to converge to their target pretty ok. Deff is huge, but like not shokcing. 010
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026I'm sure I could find more hilariously weird stuff in here, but instead I'm gonna go touch grass. If someone tries to look at how fucked the raw data from pollfish is, or learns other fun facts about their synthetic respondents, I'd be curious to hear about it lol 200
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026I'll note there exist kinda interesting estimators that attempt to combine human + synthetic sample in vaguely plausible ways (e.g. PPI/rePPI), or ways to attempt to make more realistic synthetic respondents (e.g. subPOP); this is ~none of that. This just seems like janky-ass weights stabilization?statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Better and worse ways to mix human and LLM responses in behavioral research (but you still have to figure what you’re measuring) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 110
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 24/03/2026They posted the raw data for this, fascinating: Notes so far: 1. It looks like these responses exist to make the weights converge, given the synth respondents have NA for non-weighting Qs? 2. The MoE excludes the synthetic respondents. I guess that's better than treating them as 1:1 for humans?docs.google.comThe Public Sentiment Institute - National Poll (March 20th) - March 21 Release 141
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/03/2026Thanks to the lovely r-universe project, I’ve been able to provide pre-compiled bindings for most platforms, simplifying installation. None of this would be possible without @aseyboldt.bsky.social / @pymc-labs.bsky.social ‘s great nutpie, thanks for the great sampler: pymc-devs.github.io/nutpie/pymc-devs.github.ioNutpie 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/03/2026Nutpie is ~2x faster on average than the base Stan sampler on tasks in posteriorDB, though I’ve found that’s more like 5x for my more heavily used, more complex models. Bob Carpenter has a great introductory blog post/paper with some PyMC folks introducing the sampler and explaining the speedup.statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 110
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 21/03/2026Bayesian friends- if you’re curious to try out the blazingly fast nutpie sampler in R, I just put together a pretty lightweight package that’ll compile your existing Stan models!github.comGitHub - andytimm/nutpieRContribute to andytimm/nutpieR development by creating an account on GitHub. 172
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 18/03/2026r-universe is changing whether I intend to open source something with difficult dependencies. Getting a package with rust dependencies working on CRAN is not my idea of a good time, or a good use my energy :) 100
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 18/03/2026I have a joke about bayes factors but nobody really thinks I should tell it 020
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026Oh, other Jaynes. Briefly had a moment of “E.T. Jaynes could totally have a wild ass opinion on this, like his views on measure theoretic probability”. I do want to read Julian though, he’s been been on my fin reading list for ages (regardless of how probable I find his views). 120
Andy Timm @andytimm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026A big part of the way I think about survey weighting is through connections to causal inference. One thing that emerges from that perspective: regularized weights are pretty, pretty good! I really like @shiraamitchell.bsky.social ‘s discussion of this connection here, esp the Johansson reference.statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey Statistics: sampling-weighted loss | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 040