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Andrei Sterescu

@andreisterescu.bsky.social
548 followers 349 following 423 posts

EU Economist | Formerly @ecb.europa.eu | European 🇪🇺 and International Economic Policy | Views are my own and do not represent those of my employer Substack: open.substack.com/pub/outsample

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Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
1/ Anthropic’s Economics team has published an interesting paper on how AI could affect US growth, jobs and wages through 2030. In the most extreme scenario, they project GDP growth ay 15% a year and unemployment close to 12%. A few thought below 🧵. outsample.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
outsample.substack.com
The AI Boom May Have a Demand Problem
Whether the gains translate into stronger growth may depend on who gets them and how quickly displaced workers find new work.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
1/ Anthropic’s Economics team has published an interesting paper on how AI could affect US growth, jobs and wages through 2030. In the most extreme scenario, they project GDP growth ay 15% a year and unemployment close to 12%. A few thought below 🧵. outsample.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
outsample.substack.com
The AI Boom May Have a Demand Problem
Whether the gains translate into stronger growth may depend on who gets them and how quickly displaced workers find new work.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I think when people say they want strong leaders, they do not necessarily mean heavy-handed authoritarians or a less free political system. Often, they may simply mean leaders willing to exercise power and stand up for their country and defend its interests.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The EU has something to learn from Canada, a smaller economy that is far more dependent on the US. The threat of tariffs or even a trade war would be costly but would hardly spell the end of European industry. If anything, the EU could emerge stronger if it learned to stand more firmly on its own.
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Interesting post by @andreisterescu.bsky.social! outsample.substack.com/p/how-planni...
outsample.substack.com
How planning shaped Europe’s postwar industrial transformation
Across Western Europe, different forms of economic planning helped coordinate investment, mobilise finance, rebuild industrial capacity, and manage structural change during the postwar decades.
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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Useful overview of interventionist economic policies in western Europe after 1945. #TakeBackControl
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
From the 1980s onwards, neoliberal reforms weakened many of the institutions that governments had used to steer and organise production. Industrial policy never disappeared, but much of the institutional capacity that had once supported it did. A 🧵. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
How planning shaped Europe’s postwar industrial transformation
Across Western Europe, different forms of economic planning helped coordinate investment, mobilise finance, rebuild industrial capacity, and manage structural change during the postwar decades.
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Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
EU Economy and Finance @eu-economy-finance.ec.europa.eu · 09/07/2026
🔎 What has been driving Romania’s growth since 2010? In our newest publication, we explore the role of imports, exports & demand - as well as the challenges lying ahead. 🔗 Read more: link.europa.eu/y76NDC
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
1/ Happy to announce that my paper looking at the evolution of Romania’s growth model and macroeconomic policy regime over the past 15 years, using an import-adjusted GDP decomposition approach, has been published on the Commission’s website. Long 🧵.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
1/ In recent days, the EU moved closer to new powers to tax and restrict Chinese goods while reopening formal trade. But Europe’s China problem is not only competition. The industries it wants to defend still depend heavily on Chinese inputs. A 🧵. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
China Supplies The Industries Europe is Trying to Protect
China’s role in European manufacturing is larger, more hidden and more concentrated in strategic sectors than trade figures suggest.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
What I find funny here is that the FT doesn’t argue that Chinese industrial policy is ineffective. If anything, it acknowledges China’s success in some sectors. What it says is that Western countries should be cautious about emulating China because they lack the capacity to do so.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Always nice when your analysis finds a wider audience. Data from an article I wrote on Substack mapping how different European regions are exposed to Chinese import competition and US demand got featured in @economist.com this week. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable
Europe sees Chinese subsidies, China sees European weakness
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
The @pkrugman.bsky.social and @lugaricano.bsky.social debate centres on whether Europe's relative position depends on how productivity is measured. Using industry-level data, I break the gap down into its sectoral and capital components to see what is driving it. substack.com/@andreistere...
substack.com
Europe's Productivity Debate Needs Better Data
Krugman is right that Europe's relative living standards have held up better than the decline narrative suggests. His critics are right that America has built a lead in intangible capital and tech.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
In a recent article, @martinsandbu.ft.com argued Europe already has a huge source of demand through the state. Instead of focusing exclusively on subsidies, R&D, venture capital, or trade protection, governments should use procurement to create markets. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Fomo is a poor motivation for EU tech policy
Europe’s large public sectors are a powerful tool to build a market for native tech
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
1/ Ahead of the EU ETS review and amid rising energy costs several governments and industries are pushing for reforms and a broader rollback of the EU’s climate and sustainability agenda. But is the Green Deal really to blame for EU’s competitiveness problem? A 🧵. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
Is the Green Deal Really to Blame for Europe's Competitiveness Problem? Europe’s Energy Crisis, Industrial Vulnerabilities and the Politics of Decarbonisation
The competitiveness case against the EU Green Deal is weaker than often claimed, but the political backlash reflects real and geographically concentrated adjustment pressures
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Was just listening to @abenewman.bsky.social on @fraghi.bsky.social’s podcast and then I see this. Trump reportedly suggesting that the US, China and Russia should co-operate against the ICC. I tried reading from a neo-royalist point and how it link to hegemony.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 27/04/2026
War on Iran is changing the currency calculations of Gulf energy exporters. But the dollar’s global role depends on far more than the denomination of a barrel of oil: ft.trib.al/sqJUidM
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China. But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves. New paper & thread 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Given the persistent disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, @cronco.bsky.social and I have written a substack article about how Europe’s fossil fuel dependence is now as much about macroeconomic resilience as climate. A 🧵. #Iran #Inflation #Energy open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
The Iran War, Energy Price Shocks, and the Green Transition
The Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the economic case for accelerating decarbonisation and reducing exposure to fossil fuels.
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Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
New QJE paper measures spending flows between 1000s of small groups of consumers and producers, government, rest of the world. Most consumer spending stays domestic, esp in rural, older, less-educated areas->higher fiscal multipliers; targeting "left-behind" groups boosts economy
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Guntram Wolff @guntramwolff.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
NEW: "Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database. " Our latest academic article with @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database
Public concerns about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic rel...
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The ECB should avoid rushing into rate hikes in response to surging energy costs unless there is clear evidence of second-round effects that could make inflation more persistent. Otherwise, it risks jumping the gun, weakening growth, and doing little to address the underlying problem.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Through 2024 and 2025, euro area spreads narrowed steadily as ECB easing cumulated and confidence in euro area convergence improved. By late 2025, spreads had narrowed considerably. Now that is beginning to change.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Ann Pettifor: "Tackling inflation with rate hikes while refusing to take regulatory action to deal with spiralling food prices, rocketing profits and falling real wages - means central bankers are acting politically." @annpettifor.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/annpetti...
open.substack.com
War, Inflation and Central Banker Threats to The Global Casino
The Insanity of central bankers doing the same thing over and over again
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Since the US and Israel attacked Iran, Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel, gas prices have more than doubled and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed. A thread 🧵 on global currencies, bonds, energy markets and geopolitical risks (GPR). open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
Currency Power and Geopolitical Risk
The Iran crisis as a lens on how geopolitical shocks move through energy markets, international currencies, government bonds, and the euro area’s structural vulnerabilities.
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Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 11/03/2026
Tale of two petrostates. Data from @robbieandrew.bsky.social: robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
Norwegian new passenger cars sales by type: MonthlyUS new light-duty vehicle sales by type: Monthly
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Modern wars are shaped as much by markets and supply chains as by what happens on the battlefield. A conflict can become longer and more dangerous by feeding through oil prices, shipping disruptions, inflation, and bond market stress, especially in a system loaded with debt and fragile investors.
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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
5/ important note: in a high oil price scenario, countries that produce lots of oil are NOT necessarily protected from effects of high oil prices. If your country’s oil industry is a commercial one that is allowed to export & not under heavy state control, yr citizens pay the global price tra la
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 07/03/2026
Europe’s right-wing populists may be personae non gratae among the political establishment back home. But in the U.S. they are being greeted with open arms and access to the top. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/maga...
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Fascinating to watch 🇫🇷, then 🇬🇧, then 🇮🇹, now 🇩🇪 start to acknowledge what 🇪🇸's government recognised from the very start: the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran is a reckless intervention conducted without regard for rules of war and without a strategy for what comes next. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Merz Warns of Economic Damage Due to ‘Endless’ War Against Iran
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the US and Israel against waging an “endless war” against Iran that could lead to the disintegration of the whole Middle Eastern state, a new migration crisis i...
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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
The US-Israeli attack on Iran, with its destabilising economic & security effects on Europe, just underlines my point: the UK shdn't stay leashed to a dangerously unpredictable US that doesn't even calculate its own interests, let alone ours, before bombing. And the EU wd be stronger with the UK.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
German Chancellor Merz spent the past two weeks travelling first to Beijing and Hangzhou, then heading to Washington a few days later to meet Trump. Merz’s itinerary functions as a crude but accurate map of Germany’s external exposure. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
SCOTUS decided the President cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The #tariffs decision doesn’t stop Trump from imposing duties under other laws. While those have more limitations, the tariffs framework could remain largely in place.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Why does the #BoardofPeace banner feature several EU countries, including the EU flag, when the majority of those invited refused membership status and the only EU state to have a head of state present is Romania?
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Not to be overly pedantic, but technically the ECB President is appointed by the European Council by QMV based on a recommendation from the Council of the EU, following a consultation with the European Parliament and the Governing Council of the ECB.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Two-speed Europe, coalitions of the willing, core Europe - all different labels currently circling in the debate for same idea that way forward is no longer at EU27. But the how is important, and I think different people understand different things by the concept. Quick thread on legal options:
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
1/7 My latest piece was written especially for friends who are EU policymakers or advisors. In it I argue that there is a difference between an inefficient manufacturing sector and a globally uncompetitive manufacturing sector. We shouldn't conflate the two. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/eur...
engelsbergideas.com
Europe's wage paradox
European leaders should find inspiration in Keynes' insight – that the world becomes richer when economies raise productivity and allow wages to keep pace.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Differentiated integration sounds pragmatic, but it could push toward parallel institutions and fragmentation instead of making common ones work. You might just end up with blocks operating under different standards, rules that apply unevenly, and new governance or parallel fiscal facilities.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
The ECB’s @isabelschnabel.bsky.social takes a hammer to the myth of eurosclerosis. Europe still delivers very high living standards, strong democratic institutions, and renewed dynamism in parts of Europe. European catastrophising is greatly exaggerated. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Cool feature. @germnetwork.com is an end-to-end encrypted messenger that’s fully integrated with Bluesky.
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Antonio Costa was once a socialist, a shorthand for understanding capitalism first, and then reform/revolution. this deregulation push is nuts. it wont work, because we are not in the 1990s neoliberalism, but a world of heavy state intervention and transformative ambitions.
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Saskia Dekkers @saskiadekkers.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
🇪🇺🇪🇺 New starterpack featuring researchers and analysts working in or thinking about Europe.. and active on Bluesky @rikefranke.bsky.social @fromtga.bsky.social @anneapplebaum.bsky.social @popovaprof.bsky.social @jkaarsbo.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social Follow here ⬇️ go.bsky.app/C2JMPGR
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Germany has pushed back against the most recent French proposal for common EU borrowing, arguing that the more urgent priority is tackling the bloc’s weak productivity and competitiveness. But a European safe asset is arguably a pre-condition for that.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 11/02/2026
Europe’s best bet for financial sovereignty is a true safe asset ft.trib.al/n4bVTkx | opinion
ft.trib.al
Europe’s best bet for financial sovereignty is a true safe asset
EU-issued bonds would attract long-term capital, reduce financing costs and unlock strategic autonomy
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Alberto Alemanno @alemanno.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
As they gather again, national leaders are squandering a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unleash public demand for a stronger, independent Europe — the one thing no summit communiqué can manufacture. My latest for @euobserver.com #EUCO euobserver.com/202382/europ...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger. EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report New oped. 1/ www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge. Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
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Andrei Sterescu @andreisterescu.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
European leaders will meet in an informal retreat tomorrow to reflect on the future of the Single Market. Council President António Costa framed the gathering as a moment to give the Single Market the same political impulse that defence received last year. A 🧵. open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com
Reinventing the Single Market for a Geoeconomic Age
Geoeconomic rivalry has moved from the margins to the core of economic policy. The EU’s answer starts at home. Its external leverage will depend on how well it can overcome fragmentation.
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Erin Lockwood @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Re. #2, from @andreisterescu.bsky.social: "The dollar system is sustained by path dependency and network effects, the US lingering role as lender of last resort, and by the lack of close substitutes at scale. That equilibrium can be surprisingly resilient in the face of political deterioration..."
outsample.substack.com
Fed Independence, Dollar Dominance, and Mispricing US Institutional Risk
Markets price the resilience of the dollar-based global financial system, while discounting institutional erosion at home and a foreign policy that tests alliances and the rules-based order.
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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules. Thread:
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