Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026It’s publication day for the Arms Control Paradox AND @newamerica.org’s Future Security Forum! Thrilled to have this out in the world. This has been a long time coming, years of work on a book about some of the world’s most dangerous weapons and what that history sayscan be done now. 1135
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 09/09/20261/6 Broad arms control agreements get hardest to negotiate at exactly the point they would do the most work: when uncertainty about the other side is highest. That paradox is the subject of my book, out Sept. 15 from Stanford University Press. 133
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 04/09/20261/7 Trump and Xi meet at the White House this month, and Beijing has already said it wants no part of Washington's proposed nuclear talks. My new feature in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social Arms Control Today, "Beyond Bilateral," argues that the refusal was predictable from the design of the proposal. 111
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonNew America @newamerica.org · 04/09/2026New America experts Peter Bergen and @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social will speak at this year's Future Security Forum on Sept. 15, and both are publishing new books this month. 📚 "All the Presidents' Wars" (9/8) 📚 "The Arms Control Paradox" (9/15) 🔗 RSVP: go.newamerica.org/fsf-9-11-annivers… 032
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Some of the best texts I've gotten all year: friends and family sending selfies with their copies of The Arms Control Paradox from @stanfordpress.bsky.social! Out Sept 15 from Stanford UP. Pre-order with code AMYJNELSON20 for 20% off: www.sup.org/books/politi... 152
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 26/08/20261/ My new piece in Orbis is about a specific failure mode I call phantom signaling: a warning or accusation issued with no threshold named in advance and no consequence attached to crossing one. It looks like a signal from the outside and carries no information. 252
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026We tend to assume arms control agreements hold because violations would be caught. Detection is important, but it has never been the main thing keeping states in compliance. What keeps them in is having enough information about the other side to make staying in the better bet. 111
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 12/08/2026The Arctic's most dangerous shift is happening beneath the ice. Mariam Kvaratskhelia warns that Russia is expanding its undersea nuclear forces on the Kola Peninsula, while Allied focus stays on land. Does deterrence work if neither side can verify what the other has? tinyurl.com/2nybn86f 110
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/08/2026“Arms control isn’t about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about learning to manage it.” My book, The Arms Control Paradox, launches September 15. Since the announcement, this line has resonated more than any other. Here’s the argument behind it. 152
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 30/07/2026The Arms Control Paradox began years ago as a simple question: how do we build lasting agreements in a world where technology outruns treaties? This week, my author copies arrived from @stanfordpress.bsky.social. To everyone who challenged my ideas or encouraged me—thank you. lnkd.in/enmfXVyT 0111
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 22/07/2026U.S. #AI strategy is a sprint to dominate the #frontier, while Chinese AI strategy is a tool for #nationalrejuvenation. What happens when these irreconcilable #nationalmythologies clash in #crisis? Read my thoughts from my latest piece at @newamerica.org. tinyurl.com/9f68kpxetinyurl.comThe AI Race Is a Clash of MythologiesThe US-China AI race isn't just about compute and models. Competing national mythologies are what make a crisis escalate. 011
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 15/07/2026Last month, Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org merica.org gathered #nuclear policy experts for Control+Alt+Deter's Scenario Planning stage. They ran live crisis scenarios, stepping into the shoes of U.S. policymakers racing to restore deterrence. 011
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 20/05/20261/3 Gen Z is more likely to believe WWIII is coming than that they'll afford a home. Kate Barranco asks: What does sustained exposure to catastrophe do to the futures a generation believes are possible? And what did our crises do to us? 200
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 19/05/2026"Peace through strength" sounds simple, but deterrence actually runs on legibility—currently in short supply. Troops out of Germany, surge to the Middle East—noise, not legible strategy. My thoughts @newamerica.org 👇 newamerica.org/insights/peace-through-strength-is-hard-to-read/newamerica.org“Peace Through Strength” Is Hard to Read 031
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 30/04/2026We’re in the print edition of @nytopinion.nytimes.com today. Sean Guillory and I write about the long term risks of prediction markets to national security. Check it out. 010
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Excited to share my latest in @nytopinion.nytimes.com with co-author Sean Anthony Guillory: Prediction markets aren't just a finance story — they're a national security one. Read our full argument in NYT Opinion 001
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026Trump said today he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon against Iran. The pledge is welcome. The reasoning stopped me. @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...reuters.comTrump says US will not use nuclear weapon in Iran warU.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would not use a nuclear weapon in the war against Iran. 111
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 09/04/2026The Arms Control Paradox is now available for preorder here: bookshop.org/p/books/the-... Out September 15 @stanfordpress.bsky.social 293
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 18/03/2026ICYMI: my conversation with @wjhenn.bsky.social at @newamerica.org on why nuclear danger is rising even as attention fades—and how repeated warnings can turn an existential threat into background noise—is streaming here 👇 www.newamerica.org/events/when-...newamerica.orgWhen Nuclear Danger Becomes Background Noise: A Conversation with W.J. (“Bill”) Hennigan and Amy J. Nelson 042
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Glad to see this argument getting attention. In this piece I’m quoted from my recent @newamerica.org report (supported by @ploughshares.bsky.social), where I argue that nuclear risk has become normalized—warnings accumulate, but urgency fades. Worth reading, especially on Oscar night. 022
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonNew America @newamerica.org · 03/03/2026Join @wjhenn.bsky.social of @nytopinion.nytimes.com and New America's @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for a virtual conversation about nuclear risk and threat complacency. 📅 Join us: March 4 at 12 pm ET go.newamerica.org/when-nuclear-dang… 033
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 03/03/2026When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy. The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...newamerica.orgWhen Force Replaces Frameworks: What Iran Signals About the Future of Arms Control 001
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 02/03/2026As tensions escalate again around Iran and the risk of wider regional conflict grows, nuclear danger is back in the headlines. It is also increasingly normalized. Join us at New America to discuss this phenomenon, our recent report on the topic, and hear from @nytimes.com's @wjhenn.bsky.social 000
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 02/03/2026As arms control erodes, everyone talks about stability. But instead of new treaties, we are getting posture tweaks and doctrinal shifts. France isn't breaking with restraint. It’s adjusting to a thinner, more uncertain environment. f24.my/Bm5P.BSf24.my‘To be free, we have to be feared,’ Macron says in keynote nuclear speechFrance will increase its nuclear warheads for the first time in decades, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday, saying that “to be free, we have to be feared”. Macron delivered the upda... 094
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 01/03/2026Where is the off-ramp here? What does “success” mean in practical terms, and how will anyone know if it’s been achieved? If there are no clear limits or benchmarks, strikes risk becoming open-ended by default. 011
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonCheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 28/02/2026I've made a new starter pack of people to follow for news and commentary on Iran. Got the idea from a request by @kakape.bsky.social 118550
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 26/02/2026SLCM-N is moving ahead. What matters is the world it enters in 2035. New report: “Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy.” Deterrence will depend less on the missile than the strategy around it. @newamerica.org rg Future Security Scenarios Lab: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...newamerica.orgFuture-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy: Forecasting Security Outcomes of the Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N)Analysis of SLCM-N shows its strategic value depends primarily on future conditions—not on the system itself. 000
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonPloughshares @ploughshares.bsky.social · 24/02/2026On March 4, grantee @newamerica.org is hosting a virtual conversation on how nuclear danger is understood & reported, also highlighting a new report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social. Register ⬇️ loom.ly/K2M7Qy0events.newamerica.orgWhen Nuclear Danger Becomes Background NoiseJoin us for a virtual public conversation examining how nuclear danger is understood, reported, and too often normalized in the current moment. 011
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 24/02/2026After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy. Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk. bit.ly/4bcgKOnbit.lyAfter New START: The Case for Disciplined AmbiguityWith New START expired, stability depends less on transparency and more on managed uncertainty. 022
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 24/02/2026Join us March 4 with @wjhenn.bsky.social for a conversation on how the public understands, interprets, and responds to nuclear risk. 001
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 23/02/2026What happens when nuclear warnings become routine? Join @newamerica.org for a conversation on how repeated signals of danger are interpreted, communicated, and acted on in today’s policy environment. With @wjhenn.bsky.social and opening remarks by Anne-Marie Slaughter. Register: bit.ly/4axpuzlevents.newamerica.org 031
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 23/02/2026Nuclear debates persist because we disagree not only on policy, but on how to judge risk and evidence under uncertainty. Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social highlighting my @foreignpolicy.com piece on the epistemic divide shaping nuclear policy. Read more: loom.ly/IcwWEpAloom.lyNuclear Policy Must Learn to Live With DisagreementFrom climate to AI, other fields have bridged deep divides. 010
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 21/02/2026Iran’s nuclear file is heating up again amid renewed talks and military buildup. From my 2025 @thebulletin.org piece: There's no clean military solution. Strikes may buy time, but risk escalation and reduced transparency. Goal is to extend warning time before crisis narrows choices. bit.ly/4aMhAkythebulletin.orgTo prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacyTo curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise. 052
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social lifting up our @newamerica.org report. Nuclear risk is increasing. Deterrence is under strain, arms control is thinner, and ambiguity is growing. Why, then, does the danger feel distant? Our report analyzes the mechanisms that normalize escalating risk. 011
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/02/2026Grateful to be included in this roundup from @newamerica.org My contribution to @thebulletin.org examines what managing nuclear risk requires after New START: transparency, restraint, and discipline function as guardrails in a more fragile nuclear order. 010
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonFrançois Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 04/02/2026🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world. My round-up👇 - 1/n (More will be added over the next few days.) #NewSTART #armscontrol #nukeskythebulletin.orgThe experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunitiesExperts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world. 197
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 05/02/2026This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation. 021
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 05/02/2026A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily. Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels. 000
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonJohn Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · 05/02/2026New START can’t be extended anyway - of course the talks are about a new agreement. 33912
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Today, New START expires without replacement, ending the U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arms treaty era — not arms control itself. In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority. thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...thebulletin.orgThe experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunitiesExperts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world. 132
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonFrançois Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 04/02/2026Amy Nelson (@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social), a senior fellow at @newamerica.org, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically. - 3/n #NewSTART #armscontrol #nukeskythebulletin.orgArms control and the management of uncertainty after New STARTAmy Nelson, a senior fellow at New America, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically. 121
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 04/02/2026With New START expiring later this week, I'm resharing my @poni.csis.org conversation on The Negotiator Files with Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator of the treaty, on how it was negotiated, ratified, and what its legacy means for #armscontrol today 010
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 03/02/2026Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026. It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder. #InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory 0125
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonNew America @newamerica.org · 23/12/2025Is A House of Dynamite “realistic”? That’s the wrong question. @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk. ☢️ go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite… 011
Reposted by Amy J. NelsonNew America @newamerica.org · 11/12/2025Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare. Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more. ☢️ www.newamerica.org/future-security/… 012
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 19/12/2025New piece out today @newamerica.org: How @netflix.com's A House of Dynamite Might Change Our Thinking on Nuclear War. Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...newamerica.org 000
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 12/12/2025Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement. #NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence @newamerica.org 011
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Grateful to the @newamerica.org team for supporting this work. The report unpacks why warnings fail and what it means for nuclear risk today. 010
Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/12/2025My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement. Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n... Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #NuclearRisk #NationalSecuritynewamerica.orgThreat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New EraThis report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle. 101