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douglasbshaw.bsky.social

@douglasbshaw.bsky.social
1.1K followers 1K following 519 posts

Imaginary provost of the make-believe university of human survival; promoting the creation and dissemination of knowledge to prevent nuclear war

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Patsy “Resistance Kitty” Evans Ph.D. @drharmony.net · 20h
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Tyler King @tyleraking.com · 03/10/2026
Meta has enabled Muse to build extensive and ever-growing profiles on the orbit of people in a user’s life. Based on user input but also “publicly available information.” Whether that means a web search, Facebook’s own extensive data, or buying data broker info…we don’t know? And we can’t opt out.
wired.com
Muse Creates Detailed Profiles of All Your Friends and Family
Millions have downloaded Meta’s AI agent Muse. But getting it to do your bidding comes with privacy costs.
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Dave Kearn @davekearnjr.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hi all! So crazily enough - academic publishing takes time - my Taiwan article was just published in the print version of the Journal of Strategic Studies. There’s fifty free downloads of anyone is interested. I think it may actually be more relevant now. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/H6RJT...
tandfonline.com
Limited nuclear war and the defense of Taiwan
This article assesses proposals to address the challenge of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with the threat of first use of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States. While it is not clear that a ...
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This will be important. yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
yalebooks.yale.edu
New War Machines
How new military technologies require radically new thinking about peace, war, national security, and international orderDangerous military technologies are ...
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
People make institutions, not the other way round. Sometimes people make institutions bad.
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Quite a remarkable map, table, and diagram from a 1971 report on launch-on-warning, showing the implications of Soviet submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) on detection, reaction, deliberation, and response time. All numbers are in SECONDS, which is what I find the most wild about it.
Map of the USA labeled "Soviet SLBM [Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile] Time of Flight to SAC [Strategic Air Command] Targets." Shows both "nominal" and "depressed" trajectories. Absolute best (north central USA) is between 580 and 850 seconds (9.6 – 14 min). Absolute worst (everywhere else) is between 320 and 650 seconds (5.3 – 10.8 min). The variations are based on where they assume the subs are launching from. Table: "Early Warning System Performance." Shows four different systems (BMEWS, OTHF, SLBM Net, and a not-yet-operational in 1971 Boost-Phase Detection Satellite) that indicates the time of detection after launch (varies between 55 and 150 seconds; BMEWS cannot detect launches as it is only over-the-horizon radar), the time that the US command and control system would be alerted after launch (ranges from 85 seconds for the newest system to 900 seconds for BMEWs), the probably of detection of a single launch (BMEWS is 99%, SLBM Net is 50%, none of the others have probabilities), probably of detection for a mass launch (all around 100%), and their false alarm rate (BMEWS has 1 per 7 years, OTHF is 1 per 6 months, the others are unknown). Diagram: "National Command-Warning to Response Cycle." Shows the consequences of a launch detection all the way through the US nuclear infrastructure, with "delay times" in seconds. Will be discussed in the next post in this thread.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
OTD 65 yrs ago, President John F. Kennedy addressed the United Nations General Assembly and memorably warned, “Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness. …”
A color photograph of President Kennedy addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on September 25, 1961.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Today in 1997, the post-Cold War nuclear terrorism thriller “The Peacemaker,” starring George Clooney and Nicole Kidman, and directed by Mimi Leder, opened in movie theaters. “I’m not afraid of the man who wants ten nuclear weapons, colonel. I’m terrified of the man who only wants one.”
An original one-sheet poster for "The Peacemaker." In the center, in a scene from the movie, Clooney and Kidman are running side by side, seemingly away from something. Their last names appear on large white capital letters above their images, with the title below them. At the top of the poster are the words, "In the fall of 1997, every nuclear device in the world will be accounted for ... Except one.”
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Today in 1983 in Moscow, just past midnight, 44 year-old Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov’s calm decision that a satellite warning of the launch of 5 US Minuteman ICBMs was a false alarm—based on “a funny feeling in my gut”—may have averted a catastrophic nuclear war. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl...
An official color photograph of Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov posing in his uniform around the time of this incident.A screenshot of the linked February 10, 1999, Washington Post article on page A19 headlined, “‘I Had A Funny Feeling In My Gut; Soviet Officer Faced Nuclear Armageddon.” The article also includes a large graphic title "A Crumbling Warning System," showing problems with Russia's early-warning satellites and ground-based radars. The continuation of a front page article headlined, "Dearth of Satellites Fogs Russian System," appears next to the article about Petrov.
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Andrew Facini @andrewfacini.com · 26/09/2026
and I was doing this for free 🥲
defence-blog.com
Pentagon pays $16.6 million to keep nuke inventory online
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency has awarded General Dynamics Information Technology a $16.6 million contract to keep running the computer systems the U.S. military uses to track every nuclear weap...
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Man Who Saved The World. May his memory be a blessing.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
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David Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
PBS NOVA will have an episode on Space Wars Oct 7th including me as an expert. Final boss for a science kid short of hosting the third run of Cosmos. I didn't make the trailer but I'm much more boring than @vsamsondc.bsky.social or @planet4589.bsky.social video.nhpbs.org/video/space-...
video.nhpbs.org
NOVA | Space Wars Preview | Season 53 | Episode 12
Inside the escalating military struggle to control space and the satellites we rely on.
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Have I mentioned the virtually unrestricted nuclear launch authority, recently?
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Atomic Energy Commission through Department of Energy trying to make physics secret.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
States trying to make math secret.
static.klipy.com
King Canute's Powerful Gaze
ALT: King Canute's Powerful Gaze
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The erasure of “communication” from “capability, credibility, and…” in deterrence discourse has led us into strange waters.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
ISA panel accepted
static.klipy.com
Yanquiboys
ALT: Yanquiboys
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John Scalzi @scalzi.com · 23/09/2026
(Glances nervously at the closet where I keep my extra brains)
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Stephen Young @atomicwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Henry Kissinger & Dick Garwin were debating missile defense. Garwin argued deploying a system was ineffective (it won't work) & dangerous (as adversaries will respond). Kissinger said it's impossible for it to be both. Garwin said "imagine you buy a squirt gun and charge a policy officer."
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Just scheduled a call with a scholar I’ve admired for 4 decades, and all it took was asking.
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"General, I have fought just as many nuclear wars as you have!" A story of Alain Enthoven. Herman Kahn could also apparently be quite chippy about the reality and value of his expertise when provoked. Generally, one is presumed to only ever get to fight one med+ to large nuclear war.
A black and white image of a large, light-skin toned man wearing glasses, with a round face, attached ear lobes, short hair kept low to his head, and wearing a suit and tie and clutching a lectern whilst grimacing and glaring out into the audience looking down and through his glasses with his head slightly tilted to his left and he looks thoroughly dyspeptic. 

In orange text over the bottom 20% of the image reads "How many thermonuclear wars have you fought recently?"
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Paul Bracken: “Countries are unlikely to see ‘only conventional threats’ if AI driven counterforce targets their central nervous system and the brain of their armed forces.” orbisjournal.org/commentary/a...
orbisjournal.org
An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age
Explore the impact of AI on global security and warfare in this new age of technological threats and challenges.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Mind Blown Boom
ALT: Mind Blown Boom
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Embrace 'they do not have enough goons' thought.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Please, please stop endorsing people who will never lift a finger on your issue just because of how they answered a survey.
static.klipy.com
Butcher's Plea: I'm Begging You (Karl Urban)
ALT: Butcher's Plea: I'm Begging You (Karl Urban)
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Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The lack of democratic checks and balances around Presidential nuclear authority, and increasingly around nuclear issues more broadly is a real issue. And increasingly, as this Administration has undermined democratic norms around use of force we cannot disconnect conventional from nuclear risks.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Good morning team. I recommend this book. Also, there was at least one article about the sex cult around the time of Sam Bankman-Fried's trial.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The 2030 truth and reconciliation commission collecting screenshots of abominable tweets.
static.klipy.com
Person Searching with Magnifying Glass
ALT: Person Searching with Magnifying Glass
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Americans can benefit from these too.
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Lea Szilard gearing up
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
2027 National Security Space Association scholarship applications open: nssaspace.org/scholarship-...
nssaspace.org
Scholarship 27 – National Security Space Association
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Once again, some very good discussion on this post.
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Well this could and needed to have been done differently.
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John Scalzi @scalzi.com · 15/09/2026
Got my updated COVID and flu shots today because I prefer not dying and also fuck RFK jr and this whole willfully ignorant and malicious administration.
Two bandaids, one for my COVID shot and one for the flu. I didn't know which is which, I didn't look.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Lea Szilard is ready for her next assignment.
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
the AI debate is like: what if this, but everyone was a dumbass
one world or none
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
All the more reason for the USA to destroys its stocks of variola. Preferably with Russia but destroy them we must.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Wishing all who celebrate a boldly peaceful Jan Egeland’s birthday m.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn-o...
m.youtube.com
Ylvis - Jan Egeland [Official music video HD]
YouTube video by TV Norge
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Brian Grubb @briancgrubb.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
THE PREMISE IS THAT THE MUPPETS ARE PUTTING ON A SHOW CALLED THE MUPPET SHOW
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
When AI starts killing people, we probably wont notice. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/304706...
penguinrandomhouse.com
Rule 34 by Charles Stross: 9781937007669 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
Meet Edinburgh Detective Inspector Liz Kavanaugh, head of the Innovative Crimes Investigation Unit, otherwise known as the Rule 34 Squad. They monitor the Internet for potential criminal activity, ana...
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This is the secret.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Amb. Thomas Graham, Jr., perhaps the last giant of 20th century nuclear arms control and disarmament, has died at 92. Graham worked for 27 years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, incl. as acting director and general counsel. He was also a remarkable person. www.legacy.com/legacy/thoma...
A screenshot of the Legacy.com obituary page for Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 06/09/2026
ProPublica spoke to dozens of people who had lived in homeless encampments when cities cleared them out in “sweeps.” We distributed notecards so people could tell us about the toll in their own words. ➡️ This is what they wrote:
Handwritten notecard. Prompt at the top asks: What object was most devastating for you to lose, and how have you been coping? Answer below: Dentures. Were thrown away and coping isn't somthing I can do. It’s made me feel ugly, unworthy, can’t go get a job with no teeth. So how can get off the streets until another pair can be made?
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
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Gregory Koblentz @gregkoblentz.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Pandora Report 9.4.2026 Welcome to this week’s Pandora Report! This issue examines the growing importance of local capacity in biodefense, the detection of H5N1 on a U.S. mink farm, and emerging questions at the intersection of AI, biotechnology, and biological security. pandorareport.org
pandorareport.org
The Pandora Report
Where Science Meets Security
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
two panel animated meme with left panel showing a character dialing on a phone (meme edit has added "Gender Studies" to the above the number pad) and right panel showing a stone faced animated character with their phone to their ear
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I am deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr. I can’t think of a better initial reflection than what Paul Nitze once wrote in a letter to him, calling Graham “an indefatigable warrior for the true and the just.” www.ltbridge.com/news-media/p...
ltbridge.com
Lightbridge Corporation Pays Tribute to Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., Former Executive Chairman of the Board
RESTON, Va., Sept. 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Lightbridge Corporation (Nasdaq: LTBR) was deeply saddened to learn of the passing of…...
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