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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士

@alexgabuev.bsky.social
1.8K followers 193 following 37 posts

Director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. Senior Advisor at DGA Group.

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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
What went wrong in Russia? Was thrilled to discuss the sources of Russia's conduct with German Ambassador to Moscow Alexander Graf Lambsdorff & my colleague Ekaterina Schulmann in the newest episode of "Politika." This time with @koerber-ip.bsky.social . carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
What Went Wrong in Russia? Russian Imperialism, With Ekaterina Schulmann and Alexander Graf Lambsdorff
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
"Trump has reminded BRICS members why the bloc matters, while simultaneously exposing why it cannot rise to the occasion." Our newest on BRICS with my @carnegieendowment.org partner in crime Oliver Stuenkel for @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/south-africa...
foreignaffairs.com
BRICS Is Missing Its Chance
United by Trump’s hostility, but too divided to seize the moment.
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Eilish Hart @eilishhart.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
What does Trump’s trade truce with China mean for Russia? Could Beijing play a role in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine? For @ceip-politika.bsky.social, I asked @alexgabuev.bsky.social. Watch now! youtu.be/JAAho0l9q3s?...
youtu.be
Alexander Gabuev: China's leverage over the U.S and the future of the China-Russia relationship
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Will Trump's sanctions against Russian oil finally force Putin to abandon his war against Ukraine? We've dissected this issue with Eddie Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare." Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
The Collapse of the Oil Empire? New U.S. Sanctions Against Russia, With Edward Fishman
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
🎙️🎚️‼️ Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social! open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...
open.spotify.com
Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.
carnegieendowment.org
Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 26/08/2025
At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Play for Time
How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
"Russia is playing Trump for time. But despite the country’s confidence, it’s not clear that Putin has a realistic contingency plan should Kyiv prove able to hold on." Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Play for Time
How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
"Continuing the war remains Putin’s only source of leverage to secure a desirable outcome, and he is unlikely to surrender this tool. The grim reality is that the talks will be accompanied by ongoing fighting." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/46ZHhOh
on.ft.com
Putin is back in the driver’s seat on Ukraine
Moscow is seeking victory, not compromise, through diplomacy — and Trump is playing along
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 27/05/2025
President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic. @ibkardon.bsky.social‬ and @alexgabuev.bsky.social‬ explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...
foreignpolicy.com
Trump’s Greenland Obsession Will Not Secure America
Countering Russia and China in the Arctic requires leveraging alliances, not fracturing them.
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...
youtube.com
Turbocharged and Vengeful: Managing the Challenge of a Rogue Russia
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
James Rodgers @jmacrodgers.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
'The victory has been completely hijacked by Putin.' Arkady Ostrovsky talks to @alexgabuev.bsky.social. First out a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very important listen for anyone wanting to understand what WWII meant to Soviet people, and what it means now. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:
carnegieendowment.org
Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Russia is expanding its military-industrial complex and building new facilities. An important investigation by @reuters.com with @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social, @reporter-polina.bsky.social, @mcneill.bsky.social, @christianlowe.bsky.social, @zverevlive.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
reuters.com
Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on
Increasing the supply of explosives available to fill munitions is critical to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. A Reuters analysis of documents and satellite imagery finds that the new production line could boost its firepower significantly.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
"With Trump enthusiastically shattering the remains of the US-led order, Putin and Xi are unlikely to remain bystanders." Some thoughts on larger-than-life summit of the Russian and Chinese rulers in today's @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/c5a1...
ft.com
Xi and Putin are the greatest beneficiaries of Trump’s chaos
Russia and China are unlikely to remain bystanders as America sorts out its own mess
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 24/04/2025
President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality. @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:
buff.ly
Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions…
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika" podcast, I'm joined by my colleague @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Richard Walker @richardwalker.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...
youtu.be
Three theories of Trump’s strategy for American power | DW Analysis
YouTube video by DW News
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
🎙️‼️ What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on Russia with Tatiana Mikhailova
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Here is one of the most eloquent and smart dissections of China's economy, tech, and geopolitics. By DGA Group's Joerg Wuttke in @gideonrachman.bsky.social's @financialtimes.com podcast. Well worth your time. www.ft.com/content/02a0...
ft.com
China in the age of Trump 2.0
Can China take advantage of the new era of economic and political turbulence?
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel. youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be
Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
How do BRICS members, partners, and aspirants see the organization? A helpful summary by @carnegieendowment.org, with a small contribution by yours truly on Russian perspectives. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants
The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
"Every wrongful detention or ignored court ruling is a “trial balloon”. If there is no effective pushback, would-be authoritarians will go further and faster." @gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America. www.ft.com/content/804a...
ft.com
Lessons from Russia, Turkey and India for Trump’s America
Fighting for democracy can be a lonely and dangerous business
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. But is the real picture more nuanced? We explore with Balazs Jarabik in the newest episode of "Politika" podcast. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
A Deep Dive Inside Ukraine with Balazs Jarabik
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
What might be the Kremlin’s theory of victory navigating Trump 2.0 and fourth year of its war against Ukraine? We dissect it in @foreignaffairs.com with my great colleagues Alexandra Prokopenko and Tatiana Stanovaya. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Theories of Victory
Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 26/03/2025
Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya on how Moscow won over the White House—and what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to gain from U.S.-Russian talks:
foreignaffairs.com
Putin’s Theories of Victory
Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Thrilled to dissect the craziness of today's geopolitics with inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social & Karin von Hippel , moderated by Jamie Smyth at @financialtimes.com's annual #FTCommodities global summit.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
🎙️‼️ Your weekend podcast has arrived. I'm joined by great @dsorennie.bsky.social & Yanmei Xie to discuss whether Trump can drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. The short answer is "no," but it's the long answer that is more interesting and consequential. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China? With David Rennie and Yanmei Xie
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
"A problem that the west can and should address is its wishful thinking about shortcuts to defeat Putin and manage the Russia challenge. Unrealistic expectations, have been part of the problem all along." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com on where we are in this ugly war. on.ft.com/3D0c4ho
on.ft.com
There are no shortcuts to manage the Russia challenge
Despite Trump’s diplomatic cavalry charge, the Kremlin will continue to view the west as an enemy
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
New video: @alexgabuev.bsky.social on the three main scenarios for the outcome of Russia-U.S. negotiations, along with Russia’s goals, U.S. and EU leverage over Russia, and China’s position: youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M
youtu.be
Russia-U.S. Talks on Ukraine: 3 Scenarios for Their Outcome, Plus China's Role | Alexander Gabuev
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
The last week feels surreal for Russia-U.S. relations for sure. But what could be the Kremlin's battleplan? I discuss it with inimitable Elizaveta Fokht. youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M?...
youtu.be
Russia-U.S. Talks on Ukraine: 3 Scenarios for Their Outcome, Plus China's Role | Alexander Gabuev
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Trump says that he will end the war in Ukraine. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin appears to be in no hurry to make concessions and accept a deal that is not on his terms. Some thoughts on the Russian calculus for @economist.com. www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
economist.com
Putin thinks time is on his side. Sadly he may be right, says Alexander Gabuev
Efforts are under way to find a negotiated settlement. But, asks the head of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, has the Kremlin got the memo?
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Your weekend podcast has arrived! In the newest episode, I sit down with @carnegieendowment.org senior fellow Eric Ciaramella to discuss potential negotiations to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, and how to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Triangle of Sadness: Prospects of Trump-Putin-EU Peace Talks on Ukraine, with Eric Ciaramella
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Was thrilled to be part of this intellectual exercise on European security and strategic interdependence by the World Economic Forum & @ecfr.eu. Thanks for bringing me on board with many brilliant minds, @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social, Mark Leonard, and Borge Brende. www.weforum.org/publications...
weforum.org
Open but Secure: Europe’s Path to Strategic Interdependence
Europe is at a defining moment. The world’s shifting power dynamics, the accelerating climate crisis and rapid technological change are testing the continent’s resilience. This report examines how Eur...
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
How will the latest round of U.S. sanctions affect Russia's oil & gas sector? And will it help Trump to build leverage for for talks with the Kremlin? Tune in to latest episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with Sergey Vakulenko and Tatiana Mitrova. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
No Silver Bullet: The Effect of Russian Energy Sanctions, With Sergey Vakulenko and Tatiana Mitrova
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
"Assad’s fall invalidates Russia’s claim to be a guarantor of regime stability for allied governments. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, it will remain unable to export security abroad." My colleague Alexander Baunov in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
foreignaffairs.com
Putin Chose Ukraine Over Syria
Other Russian clients may conclude that they can’t rely on Moscow.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Always thrilled to join inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social on his @financialtimes.com podcast. This time with the great @jyshapiro.bsky.social & Karin von Hillel we are taking stock of global geopolitics of 2024, and trying to look around the corner into 2025.. Tune in! www.ft.com/content/60d5...
ft.com
What to expect in 2025
After the turbulence of 2024, what are the prospects for a peaceful new year?
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Best Carnegie 2024 podcasts' episodes as recommended by hosts, including yours truly. My favorite episode of "Politika" podcast is a therapeutic conversation with James Acton about risks of nuclear war. Also a shoutout to Dan Kurtz-Phelan & Steven Kotkin conversation on @foreignaffairs.com podcast.
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @hannanotte.bsky.social, and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social analyze what the regime change in Syria means for Russia.
carnegieendowment.org
Assad’s Downfall and the Consequences for Russia in the Middle East
Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions from members of Carnegie’s global network of scholars and well-known outside contributors and has helped drive important strategic conversations and policy debates.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
What does Assad's downfall mean for Russia's presence in Syria and beyond? On @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast, I've talked to inimitable @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & @hannanotte.bsky.social. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
Assad’s Downfall and the Consequences for Russia in the Middle East
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 06/12/2024
Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social on how Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are each thinking about Trump 2.0:
foreignaffairs.com
Can Trump Split China and Russia?
Beijing and Moscow’s partnership will be hard to break.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
On campaign trail, Trump boasted that he will "un-unite" China and Russia. How feasible is it? And what are Xi's & Putin's expectations/concerns about interregnum and early days of Trump 2.0? Some thoughts in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/can-tr...
foreignaffairs.com
Can Trump Split China and Russia?
Beijing and Moscow’s partnership will be hard to break.
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Was thrilled to join FilterLabs' Jonathan Teubner and @peterpomerantsev.bsky.social on "Navigating Noise" podcast to talk about China and Russia, two countries that Trump has now famously promised to 'un-unite.' Is this feasible? Well, tune in. www.navigatingnoisepodcast.com/content/unde...
navigatingnoisepodcast.com
Understanding The Russia-China Alliance: Leverage, Friction, and the Road Ahead with Sasha Gabuev
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
🎙️📢‼️ How is the Russian leadership viewing risks and opportunities of Trump 2.0? I'm joined for the newest episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @carnegieendow.bsky.social's very own Alexander Baunov. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org
How Will Trump’s Presidency Influence Russia’s War Against Ukraine?
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 21/11/2024
Anti-Americanism has become the organizing principle of Russia's foreign policy under Vladimir Putin. @alexgabuev.bsky.social explores this reality in his latest op-ed for @financialtimes.com, arguing that Russia's mistrust of the West will outlast the Trump era. Read: www.ft.com/content/dbbd...
ft.com
Mistrust between Russia and the west will outlast the Trump era
The fight against the US and its allies has become the organising principle of Putin’s long reign
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
From a September @financialtimes.com piece: "There will be further painful reversals for Putin, as Kyiv seeks approval to use Nato-supplied long-range missiles, as well as developing its own missile program. But the Kremlin is not short of tools to respond." on.ft.com/3MSTtoF
on.ft.com
Putin thinks he can still win a war of attrition in Ukraine
Fighting will drag on while the prospects for diplomacy remain slim
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Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/11/2024
Regarding those reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. First, on the "intercontinental" claim. The distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km, so it's not an intercontinental range. But it's complicated. A short thread 1/
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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Spot on.
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