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Eurasia Group

@eurasiagroup.net
4.1K followers 27 following 1.1K posts

The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Founded by @ianbremmer.com. Putting politics first for 25 years.

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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 10h
Is the European far-right becoming mainstream? France’s RN party gained ground in Sunday’s Senate election, and Germany’s AfD party is close to governing a German state. Here’s a look at how the share of votes in Europe has shifted over time ⬇️ @gzeromedia.com #GraphicTruth
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 29/09/2026
Save the date: We’re excited to partner with RBC for the next #USCanadaSummit on March 31, 2027. At the 2027 summit, business leaders, policymakers, and experts from both countries will convene to understand the risks and opportunities for trade, tariffs, energy, defense, and supply chains.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 28/09/2026
Our expert Dan Wang expects the US-China trade truce to be extended again next year, as China has a preference for external stability before the Communist Party’s 21st Congress. The outlook for AI is less optimistic, as Beijing still sees the US approach as trying to constrain China’s development.
fortune.com
The U.S.-China relationship is on ‘tactical autopilot’ after the Xi-Trump summit. Maybe that’s not so bad | Fortune
The two countries keep pulling apart, but a summit short on substance suggests that Beijing and Washington want stabilization, not a clean break.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 28/09/2026
Our expert Dan Wang doesn’t expect the upcoming US midterm election results to alter the US-China relationship. The two-month truce extension guarantees bilateral stability through 2026, and it’s anticipated the truce will be extended again after that period.
bloomberg.com
Watch US Midterms Won't Shift China Tensions: Eurasia's Wang - Bloomberg
Eurasia Group China Director Dan Wang argues that upcoming US midterm elections will not alter relations with Beijing, as executive policy and tech export controls remain the primary drivers.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/09/2026
Canada is experiencing a reversion to the mean in its relationship w/ the US, says our Chairman @gmbutts.bsky.social. US-CA relations post-1988 Free Trade Agreement are somewhat of an anomaly and PM Carney is prioritizing countries other than the US to expand Canada's economic and security options.
ms.now
Trump’s decade on the world stage has been ‘rife with geopolitical gifts for China’
As President Trump hosts China’s President Xi Jinping for a state visit, Eurasia Group’s Gerry Butts says Trump’s missteps with the Iran War are gifts to China, which does well sitting back “watching ...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/09/2026
“US allies and partners do not want to see a breakthrough in US-China relations that harms their national interests,” says our expert Jeremy Chan about the Trump-Xi meeting. “But they also want to guard against a breakdown in US-China ties that raises the risk of conflict in the region.” @CNBC
cnbc.com
America’s Asian allies want a Trump-Xi truce — but not at their expense
There are concerns that Trump could soften Washington's position on Taiwan or other regional security issues in return for concessions from Beijing.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 22/09/2026
Tariffs are the main issue on the agenda for tomorrow’s Trump-Xi summit. Our expert Dan Wang says that China has the upper hand going into the talks, and Xi wouldn't attend if there were no deliverables on tariffs or a trade truce. @afp.com www.afp.com/fr/node/3840624
afp.com
Where the US-China tariff row stands ahead of White House summit
Trade frictions between the world's top two economies are set to take centre stage next week when US President Donald Trump hosts Chinese counterpart Xi...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 22/09/2026
Live from #UNGA: How can a human-centered approach to AI help address some of society’s most pressing challenges? Ian Bremmer, Elizabeth Cousens (United Nations Foundation), and Brad Smith (Microsoft) will discuss Wednesday at 5:15 pm ET, moderated by Rachel Siegel (CNN Business). @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
Join us Sept. 23 for a Global Stage livestream from the UN General Assembly
Catch our upcoming livestream on Wednesday, Sept. 23 at 5:15 PM ET: How can a human-centered approach to AI help address some of society's most pressing challenges while fostering inclusion, trust, and shared prosperity? Our livestream discussion, "Glob...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 18/09/2026
The European Union’s offer of associate membership to Canada is a first – but it ties into a broader strategy. Our expert Graeme Thompson explains how this is another example of how Canada reducing its reliance on the US:
bnnbloomberg.ca
- BNN Bloomberg
Graeme Thompson, senior analyst in global macro at Eurasia Group, joins BNN Bloomberg to Ottawa's actions to reduce reliance on the U.S.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 17/09/2026
The p(doom) crowd would be better served by warning of the many real threats AI poses, from bioweapons to cybersecurity, rather than claiming that the apocalypse is around the corner. @ianbremmer.com explains in his latest for @gzeromedia.com www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/a…
gzeromedia.com
AI will kill us all. Or it won’t. Depends on who you ask. (And when you ask them.)
Ian Bremmer analyzes the recent wave of AI doomsday rhetoric
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 16/09/2026
A research team in California discovered what could be a potent cyberweapon - a tool built with AI that could breach millions of WeChat accounts in hours. Our expert Xiaomeng Lu says that for WeChat’s parent company, Tencent, the hack is likely to draw intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators.
nytimes.com
For China, a Mock A.I. Attack on WeChat Signals a Dangerous New Era
The demonstration of a potent cyberweapon has exposed China’s vulnerabilities and added to the urgency of A.I. safety talks between Beijing and Washington.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 16/09/2026
Even if Russia and Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire today, global refining capacities wouldn’t return immediately, as damaged facilities take time to repair. In order for a détente to have an effect on diesel prices, our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says it would likely need to last several weeks.
theatlantic.com
Trump Is Looking for Diesel in All the Wrong Places
A Russia-Ukraine cease-fire isn’t guaranteed to get prices down.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 14/09/2026
#TopRisks2023: Water stress #TopRisks2026: The water weapon “That underlying water stress is not going anywhere. If anything, it’s getting worse — which means our governance systems need to get better to catch up to that,” explains our expert Nick Kraft.
thewatermba.com
A geopolitical risk firm built a water team
That should tell you something. What Eurasia Group sees when it looks at the water sector. Winners and losers from Eurasia Group’s Water Outlook.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 14/09/2026
The competition between the US and China to develop AI and deploy it globally is the biggest threat to the two countries’ currently constructive relations. @ianbremmer.com unpacks how the AI race could sink the US-China détente for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:
project-syndicate.org
The AI Race Could Sink US-China Détente
Ian Bremmer sees the technology’s rapid progress, and attendant risks, as a wild card in the relationship.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 11/09/2026
The month after 9/11, terrorism was the top concern for Americans. Fast forward 25 years, and that concern has faded. Now, the economy and the US government itself are top of mind. #GraphicTruth @gzeromedia.com www.gzeromedia.com/graphic-truth/te…
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 11/09/2026
Osama bin Laden achieved something more consequential than survival: he provoked the US into a series of self-inflicted wounds that reshaped the Middle East for the worse — and eroded America’s own standing in it. Our expert Firas Maksad reflects on the consequences of 9/11: @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
The cascading consequences of 9/11 for America and the Middle East
Osama bin Laden was killed and al-Qaeda dismantled, but the wars he provoked left the Middle East less stable and America’s standing in the region diminished.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 10/09/2026
"This is actually the beginning of what we call a geopolitical recession," said our CEO Maziar Minovi at the #GZEROSummit Asia. "This situation is driven by the rise of new powers like China and India, and the inward turn of the US."
asia.nikkei.com
Asia faces 'geopolitical recession,' Eurasia Group warns
At geopolitics forum, Singapore PM calls for 'new coalitions' for stability
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 10/09/2026
Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the geography of terrorism looks very different. While South Asia remains a major hub of terrorism, the most dramatic shift in the number of terrorist attacks has been toward sub-Saharan Africa. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 10/09/2026
Why are longstanding American allies are rebuilding their armies? They no longer trust that the United States will come to their defense. @ianbremmer.com’s latest for @gzeromedia.com:
gzeromedia.com
The world rebuilds its armies... without the US
Ian Bremmer analyzes a world rearming amid rising distrust of American security guarantees.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 09/09/2026
The main forces our experts say are driving oil prices higher: US-Iran conflict, the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, and the Russia-Ukraine war. "A shortage of global refining capacity has added further upward pressure, alongside sustained demand for refined products."
cbsnews.com
Oil prices could hit $120, analysis finds, as Americans absorb $100 billion fuel hit
Higher gas and diesel prices have cost Americans an additional $100 billion since the Iran war began, according to a Brown University tracker.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 09/09/2026
Our expert Christopher Garman says Lula’s declining approval ratings are the biggest warning sign for his campaign. The govt still has the ability to turn things around though, as Flávio has not yet been tested and will come under greater attack.
valorinternational.globo.com
Voter disappointment makes Brazil election unpredictable, analyst says
Eurasia Group’s Christopher Garman says neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro has energized their base as presidential race draws closer
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 08/09/2026
Following AfD’s victory, Merz’s standing is a concern in Europe, says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social. “A weak Germany, with a chancellor who is coming unstuck and being forced to deal with domestic problems, is bad and will ultimately subtract from Europe’s ability to confront its challenges.”
nytimes.com
AfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Sends a Signal to Europe
A vote in eastern Germany has given fresh momentum to hard-right parties hoping to win elections elsewhere on the continent next year, analysts said.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 25/08/2026
Our expert Dan Wang does not expect Iranian crude to become a key bargaining chip during President Xi’s upcoming visit to the US. Beijing is also unlikely to defend Iran against the US, as Chinese authorities care more about dollar access and market entry.
cnbc.com
China may not fight for Iran but its banks are a red line: Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group’s Dan Wang discusses the latest U.S. sanctions on Iran, and why Beijing is unlikely to confront the West over its ties with Tehran. She also explains why Iran is unlikely to become a key...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 25/08/2026
German military numbers just hit their highest point in 13 years, with an even more ambitious target set for 2035. As the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending and Russia tests Europe's defenses, Germany is rebuilding its ranks. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/08/2026
Trump’s decision to cut back military exercises w/ South Korea last week will certainly fuel growing doubts in the region about US security commitments, says our expert Jeremy Chan. This move, and the extension of an olive branch to North Korea, comes at a pivotal time for US security ties in Asia.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/08/2026
America’s trade war with Canada escalated again, as the US imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports on Saturday. @ianbremmer.com says that Trump not taking a public victory lap could make a last-minute resumption of trade talks possible.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 21/08/2026
Our expert Robert Kahn explains how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reaching for norm-breaking tools to bring down the borrowing rate. Rising bond market pressures are likely to reignite tensions between the Trump admin and the Fed.
cnbc.com
Trump administration is losing the affordability debate: Eurasia Group
Robert Kahn of Eurasia Group discusses the U.S. Treasury Department's debt buyback plan, saying it is small relative to the overall market. He adds that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has limit...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 20/08/2026
US debt is the highest it has ever been at $40 trillion. That's more than double what it was when President Trump first took office in 2017. This milestone raises warning of a looming fiscal crisis. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:
gzeromedia.com
High maintenance
When Donald Trump first entered office in 2017, debt stood at $19.95 trillion.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 20/08/2026
“The challenge facing Magyar is extraordinary,” says our expert Orsolya Raczova of the Hungarian prime minister’s first 100 days in office. “He is trying to dismantle and rebuild a system that took 16 years to construct.”
bloomberg.com
Hungary’s Magyar Is Racing to Dismantle Orban’s Corrupt Regime
The new premier knows he has to move fast to ensure his changes will stick
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 20/08/2026
Tehran seems to believe it can both outfox and outlast President Trump. Our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says the US now looks broadly deterred from attempting more aggressive action against Iran, cowed by the risk of sweeping Iranian retaliation. @ishaantharoor.bsky.social
newyorker.com
After Six Months of War, Trump Is Still Losing to Iran
Trump cannot “Gulf of America” his way out of the disaster that is war with Iran.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 19/08/2026
US retail gas prices hit their highest-ever August levels this week, but our experts say that “the global economy’s apparent success in adapting to the [Strait’s] closure suggests the US can afford to wait.” @semafor.com
semafor.com
Oil prices rise as Trump cuts off talks with Iran
Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut amid stalled negotiations.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 19/08/2026
In his first 100 days, Hungarian PM Peter Magyar has already delivered several electoral promises and introduced a two-term limit on the office. Our expert Orsolya Raczova unpacks how Magyar is dismantling Orbán's political system and the economic and energy challenges that lie ahead:
youtube.com
Will Magyar be tempted to follow Orbán's path? | Orsolya Ráczová
YouTube video by TALKING WITH TVP WORLD
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 19/08/2026
As summer break ends, one question lingers for nearly half of all American students: should I change my major because of AI? Students studying technology are the ones who think about this the most — while those in the natural sciences feel more secure. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 18/08/2026
Ebola killed one person every 28 minutes in the Democratic Republic of Congo last week. It is the country’s deadliest outbreak of the disease, as the UN warns that the virus is “winning.” #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:
gzeromedia.com
The DRC’s deadliest Ebola outbreak ever
On Monday, public health officials said the virus had killed 2,325 people.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 18/08/2026
The significance of the Strait of Hormuz for oil trade may be cut in half by 2030, says our expert Pietro Guglielmi. Iran stands to gain financially if it secures the right to levy fees on ships, but these gains are likely to be eroded as Gulf producers invest in pipelines that bypass the strait.
nytimes.com
Ship Exiting the Strait of Hormuz Is Attacked
At least 17 commercial sailors have been killed in and around Iranian and Omani waters since March. Six months into the conflict, the vital waterway remains exceptionally dangerous.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 18/08/2026
Our experts no longer expect a peace deal for the US and Iran by September. The most likely outcome is “a limited deal” that allows Hormuz traffic to partially recover, as pressure on Washington to push for an imminent reopening of the strait has eased.
cnbc.com
Trump says no talks scheduled with Iran as he teases action in Hormuz Strait
Trump insists the U.S., not Iran, is in control of the strait, even though transiting vessels continue to come under attack and few attempt the crossing.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 18/08/2026
President Trump’s name won’t appear on the ballot in November, but the results of midterm elections for Congress are considered a referendum on the president and his performance. Amid a period of deep unpopularity for Trump, @ianbremmer explains how the midterm elections will mark a turning point:
project-syndicate.org
The Last Trump Election
Ian Bremmer notes that this year’s midterms will mark the beginning of the end of the Trump era.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 17/08/2026
North Korea “remains unfinished business for Trump, who clearly wants another go at direct diplomacy with Kim,” says our expert Jeremy Chan. The fundamental obstacle to resumed diplomacy is Trump’s unwillingness to acknowledge North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
bloomberg.com
Trump Reduces US-South Korea Drills, Citing Lack of Help on Iran
President Donald Trump told the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea and indicated his decision to do so was driven by frustration the longtime US ally hadn’t p...
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 13/08/2026
Crude oil prices are elevated, but refined products — gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — seeing a more drastic spike. “Even if we see de-escalation in the Middle East and crude prices falling relative to that, product prices are probably going to remain high,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social.
marketplace.org
Refined oil prices face more pressure than crude, and consumers will pay the price
Experts say there's not enough refining capacity to go around while geopolitical conflict drags on, leading to a supply squeeze.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 12/08/2026
Our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says the Strait of Hormuz is never going to go back to its pre-war status quo – there’s going to be a permanently recognized Iranian role in managing the waterway. “An unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options.”
fortune.com
‘An unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options’ if the U.S. wants to get oil flowing again | Fortune
Everything you need to know before you reach the office this morning.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 11/08/2026
We talk a lot about the G-Zero world, but what about the GLP-1 world? GLP-1s are booming, but the global footprint is largely uneven. The US is leading the pack, with around 10 million Americans currently taking the drugs. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 07/08/2026
The US government has paid out $100 billion in refunds since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in February. So far, most of these refunds have gone to larger tech companies. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:
gzeromedia.com
You tariff some, you refund some
The Trump administration has payed back 60% of the $165 billion it collected from tariffs before they were struck down by the Supreme Court
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 05/08/2026
Over the last few election cycles, AIPAC and its affiliated groups have become some of the biggest spenders in American politics. This year, AIPAC-affiliated groups spent $67 million backing candidates in US elections. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
AIPAC opens its wallet
In 2026 alone, AIPAC spent nearly as much as they did across the 2022 and 2024 election cycles combined
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 31/07/2026
Chinese leaders see growth at risk of falling below target in the second half of 2026, as new-economy sectors such as AI fail to offset the slowdown in traditional industries. Our experts say that Chinese officials continue to prioritize risk containment over near-term growth.
cnbc.com
China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July on demand slump, typhoons
China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July, as the export rush that powered a second-quarter rebound began to unwind.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 31/07/2026
Food commodities like wheat, corn, and rice could jump 10 to 18% by next summer. Our expert Nick Kraft says the combination of the forecasted Super El Niño and ongoing wars in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine create an increasingly uncertain environment.
marketplace.org
Food commodity prices predicted to jump
Ongoing wars, plus a “super El Niño” this year, could lead to sharp price hikes at the grocery store.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 31/07/2026
President Trump's attempts to interfere in Brazil's election will backfire and only help Lula. Eastern European countries should worry more about Russia than Greenlanders should about US annexation. @ianbremmer.com answers your questions for @gzeromedia.com
gzeromedia.com
The Houthi escalation, Venezuelan democracy, Putin in a corner, and more: Your questions, answered
Ian Bremmer answers reader questions about geopolitical risks and potential conflicts, from the Middle East and the South China Sea to Ukraine and Venezuela.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 30/07/2026
The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the anticipated Super El Niño are two key factors that could push food prices higher. Our expert Nick Kraft breaks down the state of the agricultural sector for BNN Bloomberg: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnkKpKOuXwg
youtube.com
Second Hormuz shock hits agriculture prices
YouTube video by BNN Bloomberg
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 30/07/2026
Last week, our summer interns completed their firmwide presentations – and they did not disappoint. Topics this year included: US foreign policy after Trump, the impact of the Iran war on the AI landscape in the Gulf, and global semiconductor supply chains.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 24/07/2026
How likely is it that Trump will sabotage the midterms? His willingness to do so won’t necessarily resonate with his ability to succeed. @ianbremmer.com answers this and other @gzeromedia.com readers’ questions about Greenland, UMSCA, and the Iran war:
gzeromedia.com
Trump’s midterm play, Iran’s ticking clock, Ukraine’s edge, and more: Your questions, answered
Ian Bremmer answers questions straight from you, GZERO readers, on whatever has been on your mind.
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Eurasia Group @eurasiagroup.net · 23/07/2026
“Trump appears to be stuck,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social. He’s comfortable with air strikes and efforts to degrade Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, but appears unwilling to significantly escalate against more vulnerable targets.
diplomatic.substack.com
Trump ‘stuck’ in Iran war stalemate
“Trump appears to be stuck,” Eurasia Grp’s Gregory Brew. “While this pace of operations is manageable, it likely won’t be decisive. Iran can absorb US strikes without shifting its position on Strait.”
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