iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

13. Excited to see this paper in print soon! Thanks to many for their comments on this! @sebafle.bsky.social @econjim.bsky.social @jonathanelliott.bsky.social @amackay.bsky.social and many others who I don’t think are on here! Special thanks to our editor, John Asker for a great publication process!

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Resolving this uncertainty later would lead generators on the exit margin to be more likely to exit! Our point is subtle: this is about delaying uncertainty resolution holding the enforcement probability constant. Yet increasing coal exit seems not to be the current administration’s objective!

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The executive order responds to stricter MATS standards that the previous administration announced in 2024. The current executive order highlights that changing administrations also contribute to policy uncertainty.

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Along the way to these results, our paper uses generators’ decisions and state mercury policies to estimate generators’ perceived probabilities of MATS enforcement. In 2014, the year the Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments, the perceived enforcement probability fell to 43%!

Our study shows that, in some cases, policymakers may want to prolong uncertainty until after firms need to make decisions to help achieve policy goals. This contrasts with the “real options” result that higher levels of uncertainty cause delays in irreversible decisions.

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If coal had been more profitable and exit unlikely, we’d be on the left of the figure and earlier uncertainty resolution would have increased exit. This is more like the case of adoption of a new, costly technology like residential solar. There, resolving uncertainty earlier increases adoption.

Why? Cheap natural gas reduced coal’s profitability, leading many coal generators to be close to exiting. Figure 4 of the paper shows that, when such a generator can respond to the court decision, its expected exit probability is lower than if it can’t use this information to decide.

Cumulative distribution function of the probability of exit across expected profit shocks. A blue dashed line on the right indicates the profit shock cutoff with ex-post uncertainty resolution leads to high levels of exit. On either side there are red dashed lines that indicate the two profit shock cutoffs with or without certain enforcement. The figure shows that, in expectation across these two potential exit rates, expected exit is lower if uncertainty is resolved earlier.

How does this affect generator exit? The delay between announcement and uncertainty resolution caused more generators to exit. Resolving uncertainty 4 years earlier would have lowered generator profits by $1.4 billion but also reduced pollution damages by up to $1.8 billion.

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We investigate the EPA’s MATS, which affected coal generators. The original challenges to MATS took 4 years, and generators exited in the interim. With a quicker court decision, they could have taken action in response to the outcome. Instead, they made choices given the expected outcome.

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Many executive branch policies are challenged in the courts and these challenges can take years to resolve. Yet firms may need to take irreversible actions before the courts have ruled. How might these actions change if policy uncertainty was resolved more quickly?

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2. “Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards” looks at the original uncertainty surrounding MATS enforcement. MATS was announced in 2012 with 2016 enforcement. It was challenged in the courts but enforced on time. www.ashleylanger.com/files/policy...

ashleylanger.com

Regulatory Relief for Certain Stationary Sources to Promote American Energy

Recently the President ordered that coal generators don’t need to comply with the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS). My forthcoming JPE paper with Gautam Gowrisankaran and Wendan Zhang on uncertainty surrounding MATS, so it seems like it’s time for a thread! www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

whitehouse.gov

1. Coal-fired electricity generation is essential to ensuring that our Nation's grid is reliable and that electricity is affordable for the

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

My Stata/C combo didn’t make the paper! 😀

Joseph Shapiro @joseph-s-shapiro.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Reposted by Ashley Langer

🚨Incredible lineup at @nber.org conference this Thurs/Fri 3/20-21: **Energy Markets, Decarbonization, and Trade** 📑Agenda www.nber.org/conferences/... 🎥 Webstream www.youtube.com/nbervideos Organized w Natalia Ramondo, supported by @sloanfoundation.bsky.social

nber.org

Energy Markets, Decarbonization, and Trade, Spring 2025

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

What’s the paper? Sorry to miss ASSAs this year!

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

Rachel Cole @rmartincole.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Applications are now open for the 2025 - 2026 Transportation Library Travel Grant. This grant of up to $3,000 supports research projects that benefit from substantial onsite use of our collections. Learn more here: www.library.northwestern.edu/libraries-co...

Announcement with text "2025-2026 Transportation Library Travel Grant." Background illustration of a skyline featuring buildings from around the world.

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

Phil Haile @philhaile.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

I've gotten a flurry of requests to access my slides on "Models, Measurement, and Language in Economics" (presumably thanks to the great new year's reading list from @rohitlamba.bsky.social). The file is publicly available via my web page, but here is the link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ntgkb...

dropbox.com

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

AERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

🌿 Interested in learning more about the AERE Scholars program? Join us for an info session **today** Dec. 12 at 3pm Eastern/12pm Pacific. 🌿 Register here: buff.ly/49zwPMH Learn more here: buff.ly/4grLvzC Applications for the 2025 cohort will open soon and be due mid-January!

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

Felix Pretis @felixpretis.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Save the date: 9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) will be at the University of Victoria BC, Canada, Aug. 27-28, 2025. Come if you want to learn about climate and econometrics (or just want to visit Vancouver Island...) Formal call for papers to follow in 2025. #EconSky

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Ooh! Now I get to join in the pretty picture fun! Sorry to miss you, hope all is well!

Waterfall through a deep gorge in Ithaca, NY

Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Nominators must be AERE members, and the list of past winners is available here: www.aere.org/peq-award-re... I look forward to seeing nominations and learning about new work!

aere.org

PEQ Award Recipients

Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

We encourage you to comb not only through the typical environmental / resource economics journals, but also consider general-interest and multi-disciplinary work that falls under the general umbrella of our field.

Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Do you have a favorite Environmental or Natural Resource Economics paper? Nominate it for AERE's Publication of Enduring Quality! Any publication (book/journal article/chapter) that's at least 5 years old is eligible, and nominations are due December 15! www.aere.org/peq-nominati...

aere.org

PEQ Nomination Instructions

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

Danae Hernandez-Cortes @hernandezcortes.bsky.social · 31/10/2024

The School of Sustainability at ASU is hiring two full time positions (one assistant professor rank, one open rank) in sustainable energy systems. Especially encouraging applicants using data analytics (e.g. economics, techno-economics, etc). Apply here: apply.interfolio.com/157579

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

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Reposted by Ashley Langer

Bård Harstad @bardharstad.bsky.social · 20/10/2024

Please repost and spread the news! And time to complete that political environmental economics paper of yours! (Submission deadline Nov 1) www.gsb.stanford.edu/events/polit...

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 22/10/2024

Not to promote the other place, but if you’re interested in a predoc for next year, please apply to this! Columbia sponsors visas for international predocs! x.com/profalanger/...

x.com

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 11/10/2024

Good evening to head to Massachusetts!

Pink and green streaks in the sky above black trees

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Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 03/10/2024

And also your control both journal’s social media accounts? 🤔

Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 01/10/2024

Let me also add that for those looking for research topics, we still have a lot to learn here!

Ashley Langer @alanger.bsky.social · 01/10/2024

Looks great! Now do we need to get your coauthor online??