iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

What does this tell us? Safety at origin is not one factor among many. It determines when return becomes a real option. Until then, intentions/other predictors are weak signals of behavior. And worse conditions in host would not push refugees to rtrn while origin is unsafe. 8/8

091

Was this mainly about safety as we suggest? Respondents' assessments support this interpretation. Before Assad fell, only 26–37% described home as safe. The share jumped to 52% in the first post-fall wave and reached 75% by last wave 7/8

130

TWFE cannot rule out time-varying covariates (e.g. worse safety in Lebanon). So we compare areas that came under new Syrian government with Kurdish-controlled SDF areas, which were outside Assad’s control before and after he fled (thus less affected by regime change). 6/8

131

We use respondent and wave FEs to compare respondents with themselves over time Before Assad regime fell, most predictors were weak and insignificant. After Assad fled, several factors incl. intentions, economic conditions, and networks became much stronger predictors of return 5/8

Why? We argue refugee return happens in two stages. First, people ask whether home is safe enough for return to be a real option. Only once safety is cleared do other predictors (e.g. intentions, economic conditions, networks) shape return. 4/8

150

We asked respondents in 2019 if they intended to return. Did those intentions predict return behavior? Before Assad fell, those who intended barely return at higher rates than others Afterward, baseline intentions were much more strongly correlated with actual return years later 3/8

For 5 years before Assad fled, return barely increased Lebanon faced financial collapse, COVID-19, the Beirut explosion, & war with Israel. Most refugees lived in extreme poverty, yet only 1.6% returned per wave. After Assad fell, return jumped 4–7×, averaging 9.7% 2/8

120

Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) @egap.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8

25523

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

📄 Safety Shocks and Mobility Decisions among Syrian Refugees in Lebanon 📍 Refugee Hosting in the Global South: The Effects of Aid, Conflict, and Policy - Fri, September 4, 2:00 to 3:30pm EDT ✍️ @aalrababah.bsky.social @dmasterson.bsky.social Jeremy Weinstein & Dominik Hangartner #EGAPAPSA #APSA

121

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) @egap.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

📄 (Paper) Media Coverage, Public Opinion, and Mobilization in the Gaza War 📍 (Panel) If It Bleeds, It Leads… to What? War Frames and Public Attitudes - Fri, September 4, 8:00 to 9:30am EDT ✍️ (EGAP Authors) @aalrababah.bsky.social & Salma Mousa #APSA2026 #EGAPAPSA #APSA

111

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Applications are open for EuroWEPS Berlin.👇There is also some change in the EuroWEPS organising committee. @pavisuri.bsky.social is taking a step back, while @aalrababah.bsky.social & @ewirsching.bsky.social are joining starting with this edition. A big thank you to Pavi & welcome to Ala and Elisa!

12110

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Really interesting! Thanks for sharing

010

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Should immigrants be allowed to vote? This is a highly politically charged question. In a new research paper and substack piece, me and @tarekjaziri.bsky.social test the biggest objection to letting foreign residents vote locally, and find it doesn't hold up. 🧵 simonhix.substack.com/p/why-not-gi...

simonhix.substack.com

Why Not Give Immigrants the Right to Vote?

The fear that allowing foreign residents to vote in local elections would benefit left-wing parties turns out to be wrong.

56925

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Alonso Román Amarales @alonsoroman.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Happy to share that I received my PhD in Social and Political Science from Bocconi University, cum laude. Many thanks to Massimo Anelli, @catherinedevries.bsky.social, @aalrababah.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, and Gloria Gennaro, as well as to my family & friends for their support.

281

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Die Linke pulled off a surprise win in Germany’s most recent federal election and has suddenly become one of the most closely watched parties in Europe’s progressive politics. Behind the success lies a continuing structural transformation of its geographic support base. A short thread🧵

421965

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

There are many images today of the far right mobilizing and marching, from Erfurt to DC. But today also marks the start of the Tour de France! Being a municipality located on the Tour de France route *reduces* the far-right vote share 🚴🏿🚴🏿🚴🏿 #tdf2026 #ef0407

1194

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

In June, Switzerland will vote on what is so far the most radical far-right popular initiative launched by the Swiss People‘s Party SVP: capping the population at 10M (currently ≈9.1M). In this thread, I’ll break down what it’s about and how it fits into broader findings on Swiss direct democracy

617080

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Giovanna Invernizzi @ginvernizzi.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Excited to finally share the program for the Columbia–Bocconi Political Economy Conference 🔥 Columbia University, June 4–5, 2026 Co-Organizers: @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social (Columbia), Shigeo Hirano (Columbia), @carloprato.bsky.social (Columbia), @aalrababah.bsky.social (Bocconi)

0134

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Gloria Gennaro @gloriagennaro.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

New paper out in @thejop.bsky.social : "Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front." How does expanding public housing affect far-right support? The answer depends heavily on local conditions, and specifically on local immigrant shares. Paper: doi.org/10.1086/736361

47721

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Giovanna Invernizzi @ginvernizzi.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

Last day to submit: Democratic Resilience and the Politics of Belonging Columbia, June 4-5, 2026 Co-Organizers: @aalrababah.bsky.social (Bocconi), @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social (Columbia), Shigeo Hirano (Columbia), @carloprato.bsky.social (Columbia) Submit: lnkd.in/eiPgt_w5 Details ⬇️

023

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Mashail Malik @mamalik.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵

312240

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Carlo Prato @carloprato.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

Call for Submissions: Democratic Resilience and the Politics of Belonging Columbia, June 4-5, 2026 Co-Organizers: @aalrababah.bsky.social (Bocconi), @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social (Columbia), Shigeo Hirano (Columbia), @ginvernizzi.bsky.social (Bocconi) Submit: lnkd.in/eiPgt_w5 Details ⬇️

0137

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Christian Traxler @chtraxler.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Looking fwd to our Polit Econ Lunch Seminar tomorrow, where @aalrababah.bsky.social will present co-authored work on the Political Consequences of the Tour de France🚴‍♂️ Drop (or cycle) by, if you're in town! Paper👉 osf.io/preprints/so... PELS program👉 www.hertie-school.org/fileadmin/2_...

051

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Excited to co-chair the Migration Politics section with @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social at the first @epssnet.bsky.social conference in Belfast. Submit your abstracts by Nov 7!

0114

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Kristina Bakkær Simonsen @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

This is your heads up that the deadline for submitting your abstract to the inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social conference in Belfast is a month from now (Nov 7)! I'm chairing the Migration Politics section w/ @aalrababah.bsky.social and we're excited to receive contributions from across the discipline🕺🏻

064

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Giovanna Invernizzi @ginvernizzi.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

Please share! Call for papers in the formal theory section at EPSS 2026 @epssnet.bsky.social. Call for papers is open: epssnet.org/belfast-2026... We welcome individual and panel submissions on all substantive areas of political science!

epssnet.org

Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference

Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.

068

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Kristina Bakkær Simonsen @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Submit your most exciting work on migration to our section at the EPSS conference in Belfast (June 18-20, 2026). Deadline for submitting your abstract is November 7 📩 @epssnet.bsky.social

065

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

If you work on the politics of migration, integration, or citizenship, consider submitting it to @epssnet.bsky.social and the more-than-capable hands of co-chairs @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social @aalrababah.bsky.social. Deadline is 7 November! #migcitsky #polisky

052

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

>>> It also covers work on receiving societies, such as citizenship, immigrant integration, political representation, and public attitudes toward migrants and minorities. Submissions: papers, panels, topical roundtables, or author-meets-critics. 7/

123

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

▶️ Migration Politics 👉🏽 Section chairs: @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social & @aalrababah.bsky.social 📢 Our section section brings together research on the politics of migration, including migration flows, government policies to manage mobility, and the politics of forced displacement. >>> 6/

133

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

🚨Deadline for submissions is today!🚨

036

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026... We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference. 🔝 This Thursday: European/EU Politics & Conflict, Violence, and Security 🧵

epssnet.org

Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference

Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.

147

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

Dunno what you're talking about. I'd never come to town without telling you 😅

020

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

Congrats and enjoy. Hopefully I’ll see you soon ;)

Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

Deadline to Apply on September 30! Please send in your application

074

Reposted by Ala Alrababah

Chagai Weiss @chagaiweiss.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

🚨Registration is open for the TPBW🚨 Join us on Nov. 7-8 to discuss exciting political behavior/behaviour research. We have an awesome list of presentations and posters from all around the 🌏🌍🌎 Program: www.rubenson.org/events Registration: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

docs.google.com

Registration

Registration is now open for the 2025 Toronto Political Behaviour Workshop, taking place November 7 & 8 at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy The deadline to ...

197

On spatial dependency we report results when clustering at several levels (incl. stage). We also now do permutation inference at stage level too to account for spatial dependence. See attached

120

Hi Christopher! Not sure ASO is doing this. Note our analysis already deals with baseline levels of support so they only have to avoid areas with increasing support even when baseline is low. Also ASO talk clearly about how they select routes based on other considerations

120

Thank you Vicente :) Hope you're well!