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I've also updated the impacts explorer over there to use the latest (October) dynamical model runs for local forecasts: dashboard.theclimate...

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And the relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) version of that figure:

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And the latest projected El Niño peak for each model and across all models:

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Here is what all the individual models show in October runs compared with September runs:

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There is a bit of a jump between observed September Oceanic Niño Index (ONI – 2.8C) and projected October ONI (~3.6C) in the models, but this isn't too far out of the realm of possibility as its been averaging about 3.2C over the first third of October:

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The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

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Good prediction! Though note thats just for ERA5; the average of all the groups will be closer to 1.5C this year:

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And Niño 1+2 region anomalies are at a stunning 5.3C, far above any prior year.

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Niño3 region anomalies are well into record territory at 4.1C.

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The relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) is up to 3C; not quite in record territory yet, but rapidly closing in. With another two months or so of growth to go its almost certain to set a record as well.

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This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncharted waters; Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El Niño event on record. September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).

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Plus there is no lack of examples of absolute reductions in fossil power generation:

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No, it clearly replaced fossil fuels that would have otherwise been built to meet that new demand! Thats the whole analysis in the piece:

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We also see countries where rapid growth of solar and wind has played a key role in absolutely reducing power sector emissions, not just meeting new demand. The US has seen power sector emissions fall 37%, the EU by 55%, and the UK by 75% since 2005:

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If we hold solar and wind at 2005 levels and fill in the gaps with fossil fuels (with the mix determined by country – coal in China and India, mostly gas in the US and EU), global power sector emissions would have been 28% higher.

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But despite this rapid growth fossil fuel generation continues to set new records, though it has slowed down substantially compared to the rate of fossil fuel growth in the 1990s and 2000s. This leads some to argue that clean energy isn't actually reducing emissions.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 03/10/2026

Clean energy has been wildly successful. Non-hydro renewables (primarily solar and wind) have increased from near-zero in 2005 to producing 22% of global electricity, and are on track to produce more than natural gas this year:

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Well, and because it relies on 10% gas rather than massively overbuilding. If you wanted 100% uptime with solar and batteries it would be ~116 (95–275) gCO2/kWh.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 03/10/2026

Here is a more technical version for folks who are interested, though the hydro and geothermal points have fewer studies underlying them:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 03/10/2026

I often see people claim that because clean energy sources like solar, wind, or nuclear are manufactured using fossil fuels their emissions are high. But thats absolutely not the case: even accounting for full lifecycle emissions they are vastly better than burning coal or gas:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/10/2026

2026 as a whole is now on track to end up roughly tied with 2024 as the warmest year on record in ERA5, at 1.6C above preindustrial. And 2027 waiting in the wings to be quite a bit warmer on the back of a record-setting El Nino event.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/10/2026

September 2026 was the second warmest September on record (after 2023's "gobsmackingly bananas" month), coming in at 1.63C above preindustrial levels in the ERA5 dataset.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/10/2026

Yep, its going to be pretty disastrous for many countries in the tropics: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#impacts

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 30/09/2026

Details on the effects of the bill's major provisions:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 30/09/2026

Confused by all the debate about the new permitting reform bill? Here is a quick cheat-sheet of the most important provisions, and their likely impact on emissions:

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The latest models lean a tad wet in the UK, but only ~10% more rainfall than average. I'm only looking at precipitation and temperature here, however: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#impacts

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Additionally, I've added a fully interactive version of these maps to my Climate Dashboard, where you can see the up-to-date predictions from different models as well as explore impacts during past strong events El Niño events: dashboard.theclimate...

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Europe has some of the weakest teleconnections of any region, with few consistent signals during past El Niño events. Impacts there depend more on the development of the North Atlantic Oscillation, though models lean wet for the UK and central Europe this winter.

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In Africa we expect to see sharp reductions of rainfall in the southern part of the continent, which threatens a maize crop on which tens of millions depend. Around the horn of Africa there is likely to be heavier rains and flooding during the short fall rainy season.

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In North America we expect to see wet winters from the Gulf Coast to Cuba. We also will likely have a wetter conditions in the Southwest, particularly in Southern California. Central America is likely to have drought conditions in countries south of Mexico.

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We expect drought in northern South America, over the Amazon (with corresponding high fire risk), and in Northeastern Brazil. There will be heavy downpours and flooding in Peru and Ecuador, and wetter conditions in Central Chile.

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Many of the most reliable El Niño impacts are clustered around the tropical Pacific. Drought in Indonesia, the Philippines, the western Pacific islands have shown up in essentially every strong event since the 1950s, and this year’s models agree.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 25/09/2026

I looked at three different lines of evidence: the literature on El Niño teleconnections, what occurred during the past 8 strongest events since 1950, and the predictions of this year's event from 13 different dynamical models initialized in September.

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Models don't show a particularly strong precipitation signal in NZ this winter, at least as far as I can tell.

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/09/2026

Correct, models don't really forecast significantly reduced precipitation across Eastern Australia during this event:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/09/2026

Our monthly Berkeley Earth press briefing is happening tomorrow (Thursday) at 8 AM Pacific. Join us to hear about record-warm August temperatures as well as the latest on this year's record-setting El Niño event: us02web.zoom.us/webi...

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 23/09/2026

Updated version of the impacts map that incorporates the latest runs from 13 dynamical models to refine the areas affected by this year's event:

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 23/09/2026

I've updated my map of El Niño impacts this year to incorporate 13 dynamical models (NMME and C3S, Sept runs); the initial version was simply based on an assessment of the impacts literature for past very strong events. This also let me refine the impacted areas using the model fields:

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I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...

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Those were a bug, its fixed in later versions:

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In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.

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Parts of the world are warming much faster. The global land (where, its worth noting, we all happen to live) is warming around 50% faster than the world as a whole, and has already passed 2C:

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So while we think we are heading toward ~3C today, we could really end up at 4C if we role 6s on the proverbial climate dice. Its more useful to treat climate outcomes as a set of risks – the odds of the world warming by 2C, 3C, or 4C over time – rather than a deterministic outcome.

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These arise from two factors: carbon cycle feedbacks – how the biosphere and ocean's ability to absorb carbon changes as we emit more and the world warms, and climate sensitivity – how the interplay of feedbacks like water vapor, clouds, snow and ice, etc. respond to warming.

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We hear a lot about central outcomes of climate change. For example, under the new "medium" scenario (e.g. current policies continuing), the world warms around 2.9C by 2100. But these numbers mask some massive uncertainties in how the climate actually responds to our emissions.

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