iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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The next name on the list is Josephine and I'm going to pronounce it like Persephone just to piss off Facebook commenters.

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Angie Nixon @angieforfl.bsky.social · 7h

Come on Ron. More than 20% of your constituents speak Spanish, and you can’t even be bothered to learn how to pronounce Isaías? #AngieforFlorida

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Kaedan O'Brien, Ph.D. @deadbovids.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This is your annual reminder that honeybees aren't native to North America

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 8h

The Atlantic might not be done? DeepMind has been showing higher chances of development in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf as early as next weekend. Climatology says storms that form there most often affect the Caribbean or south Florida. We’ll see.

DeepMind ensembles showing around a 24% chance of tropical development in 9-13 days over the western Caribbean or southern Gulf. Tracks are all over the place and include potential landfalls throughout the Gulf Coast and western Caribbean.

Climatology for tropical systems that form between October 11-20 in the east Pacific and Atlantic basins.

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Association for Fire Ecology @afe-fireecology.bsky.social · 11h

Read "Within and among years atmospheric moisture availability influences wildfire burn severity in the boreal forest" by Jack A. Goldman, Marie-Josée Fortin, and Patrick M. A. James in the #FireEcology Journal #SNFECO link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s…

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news4sa.bsky.social @news4sa.bsky.social · 12h

Drone footage of damage from Hurricane Isaias in Pensacola, Florida

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 13h

Southern Appalachians doing their thing. Find the wedge. Find the rain shadow.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 19h

Preliminary track verification statistics for #Isaias show that the Google Deepmind model dominated the model guidance by a huge margin. The National Hurricane Center closely and wisely followed it. Details at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/isai...

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Not to be confused with the space weather prediction center

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IEMBOT MOB @mob.weather.im · 09/10/2026

At 4:46 PM CDT, 4 ENE Orange Beach [Gmz633 Co, AL] Mesonet reports Tropical Cyclone. Mesonet station XMLP Mill Point measured onset of hurricane force winds with 56mph sustained gusting to 75mph at 21:46. #alwx Link

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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Thunderstorms wrapping around the eye of Hurricane Isaias. Few things make me happier than 30-second satellite imagery of hurricanes.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A missing comma changes the meaning here, oops. “shortly, before making…”

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

NHC upgraded Isaias to a Cat 3 with winds near 120 mph.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

We’ll see if this recent pass through Isaias by the Air Force will be enough for an upgrade. Pressure in the 950s now with flight-level winds of 120KT should do it.

Cyclonicwx.com’s view of Air Force recon currently investigating Isaias. The hurricane is at least a cat 2 with deepening pressure and increasing winds. Note the northward bend that is gradually occurring.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Isaias is expected to become a major hurricane shortly before making landfall this evening as a high-end cat 2. As NHC points out, any delay in the strong wind shear evident on water vapor satellite would allow for a delay in weakening.

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Dr. Samantha Montano @samlmontano.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

We’re just hours away from DeSantis re-hiring Kevin Guthrie to deport the hurricane to Martha’s Vineyard.

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Wxdylan @wxdylan.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Here is what will be keeping me up the next few nights (literally because I'll be working 14 hours of OT at minimum the next 2 days). Forecast of 74+ mph a few hundred feet off the surface 4am Saturday in Georgia. Look at the equiv pot temp on the sounding. It's raining moderate to heavy at times.

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National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 08/10/2026

10/08/2026, 4p CT Update Hurricane Isaias has strengthened into a Category 2 storm. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night.

Satellite Image with Forecast Cone and Tropical Warnings Track & Forecast Labels: 4:00 PM Thu: Hurricane ('H') located in the central Gulf of Mexico. 1:00 AM Fri: Hurricane ('H') continuing north-northeast. 1:00 PM Fri: Hurricane ('H') approaching the central Gulf Coast. 1:00 AM Sat: Tropical Storm ('S') tracking inland near the Mississippi/Alabama state line area. 1:00 PM Sat: Tropical Depression ('D') inland over the Southeast U.S. Coastal Warnings & Watches: Red coastline: Hurricane Warning along coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Blue coastline: Tropical Storm Warning extending east along the Florida Panhandle. Description:
Satellite imagery overlaid with a National Hurricane Center forecast track cone showing a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico moving north-northeast toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Thick cloud bands cover much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and adjacent coastal states.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Lake Charles office issued a Red Flag Warning on Friday in Texas and Louisiana, for winds and dry air on Isaias’ periphery.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The NWS has issued High Wind Watches to cover the post-tropical wind threats in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. Downslope wind gusts from a mountain wave in Tennessee could exceed hurricane-force on Saturday and may be highly impactful given trees still have leaves.

The areas shaded in burnt orange have High Wind Watches Friday night or Saturday into Saturday night, to include north Alabama, north Georgia, southeast Tennessee and far southwest North Carolina.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

DeepMind is adamant that Isaias will become a major hurricane tonight and make landfall east of NHC’s projections in a rapidly weakening state. Some implications of the intensity Friday morning include storm surge, landfall intensity and wind damage potential in the southern Appalachians.

The 1000-member DeepMind ensembles show a 98% chance for Isaias to become a major, category 3 hurricane tonight into Friday morning. 2% even suggest a Cat 5 is possible.

The DeepMind ensemble clusters via TC-Atlas are mostly east of the NHC track in black and white. The vast majority show Isaias making landfall as a category 1 hurricane, but an insignificant amount do show a major hurricane over the western Florida panhandle.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Recon in Isaias today have found a gradually strengthening hurricane. Tonight could be a different story.

NOAA3 recon plot of various weather and flight level data. Extrapolated pressure has been holding near 970 millibars while flight level winds just sampled were near 85KT, the strongest of the day.

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Gail Simone @gailsimone.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I’m going to start calling it Super Intelligence right after I start calling twitter “X.”

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Also, those cirrus in the background are from the hurricane and extend clear out over the Atlantic.

Water vapor satellite showing Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico. A stream of white blowoff with an outflow channel extends across the Southeast and over the Atlantic Ocean.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Was supposed to have a dying water oak removed from the front yard tomorrow, but they postponed due to Isaias. 😬🤞🏻

House with gray siding and large oaks in the background. The foreground has blooming goldenrod and a vibrant beautyberry is off to the left.

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WeatherPeens @weatherpeens.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

A WeatherPeens warning is in effect for coastal Baja California and Southern California

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

A cool verification tidbit: since the Google DeepMind (GDMI) went "live" last year at NHC, it's been the most accurate track forecast 2-3 times as often as OFCL and 4-5 times as often as any of the physics models. For intensity, OFCL is still most frequently the best forecast, except at 5 days.

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IEMBOT MOB @mob.weather.im · 08/10/2026

WPC issues Day 2 Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Oct 8, 8:18z for MOB Link

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

this lady’s been hanging out on the house and fence this week. hoping she squirts one out soon.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

From the Wednesday afternoon cycle of the 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble, nearly the entire ensemble is east of the NHC track forecast, and 74% of the members reach Category 3+ intensity now. The most likely intensity at landfall is Category 1 hurricane. #Isaias

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Ian Miles Schlong @tedcruznipples.com · 07/10/2026

Welp. Just soiled myself in sheer terror. I guess that’s one thing Donald and I have in common now.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Did you know hurricanes are one of our critical fire weather patterns in the South? Lingering drought and Isaias will team up to result in a critical fire environment over the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday through Saturday. Dry air is already plentiful across the region.

Low-level water vapor satellite image from College of DuPage. The green blob over the Gulf of Mexico is moisture associated with Tropical Storm Isaias, while the orange and red areas from Texas to the Carolinas denote very dry air.

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Florida Phoenix @floridaphoenix.com · 07/10/2026

“This is the first storm that we have seen in over two years, and the stat that is amazing to me is I think there is like 450,000 people that have moved to the great state of Florida who have never experienced a hurricane." floridaphoenix.com/2026/10/07/f...

floridaphoenix.com

Florida government gearing up for Tropical Storm Isaias • Florida Phoenix

As of Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias was about 500 miles from the mouth of Mississippi River with 50 mph winds as Florida’s leaders said they were “prepared and ready to respond” for landf...

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

As always, see the alt txt for more context. Hopefully nothing comes of it, but the potential for escaped intentional burns and re-emerging wildfires will be high north and west of Isaias the next few days.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

This critical burn environment will lead to high-risk significant fire potential Friday in parts of LA, MS and south AR. Fire danger will increase Thursday, peak Friday and may stay up to the west of Isaias’ cloud shield Saturday.

The 7-day significant fire potential outlook features high risk conditions in the orange-shaded predictive service areas Friday across Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Moderate (brown) and low (yellow) risks surround this area, where fire activity is possible but less likely than where the Bs are indicated.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

One of the things we look for is subsidence on the outskirts of a tropical system, which is clearly indicated by the drying PWATs north of Isaias the next few days. This brings dry air to the surface as winds begin to ramp up. Drought + dry air + wind = fire.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Heavy rain that brought some drought relief to the Plains and Southeast skipped over the area. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index is nearly maxed out after the exceptionally hot and dry late summer and early fall. Old fires have been smoldeirng, requiring more firefighting resources than normal.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) per PRISM data, via the NCSU Fire weather intelligence portal is depicted. KBDIs factor in recent rainfall and maximum temperatures, with fire risk increasing as KBDIs increase. Values above 600 can be problematic when the fire environment aligns, and KBDIs above 750 are considered extreme. The dark purple areas in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and smaller parts of adjacent states are experiencing these conditions.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Oops wrong link. cyclonicwx.com/recon/

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Pressure is falling like a rock, but winds aren’t yet appreciably stronger than the Air Force recon found this morning. cyclonicwx.com/data/recon

Near Real time recon data from a NOAA recon mission in Isaias shows pressure down near 992 mb, well below what the Air Force found this morning.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

#Isaias will pass over a deep reservoir of warm water on Friday morning... very high ocean heat content. That should offer an interesting battle against the increasing wind shear.

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Recon seems to indicate Isaias’ wind field is broad, but pressure dropped 2 mb between passes. Its northeast motion this morning was well modeled by the 06Z DeepMind mean, which continues to trend east with landfall. We’ll see if NHC bites here shortly.

Cyclonicwx map of Air Force reconnaissance in Tropical storm Isaias. Pressure went from 1004 to 1002 mb between passes. The wind field Is broad.

Tc-atlas showing the DeepMind ensembles mean in colors and the NHC official forecast in black and white.

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National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

4 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 (Advisory 3) Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Isaias. Latest info: hurricanes.gov 4 AM CDT miércoles 7 de octubre (Aviso 3) Mensajes clave sobre la tormenta tropical #Isaias. Más información: hurricanes.gov x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/210775810…

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Andy Snyder @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

DeepMind (FNV3) was the only ensemble mean that nailed where TD9 would form. May lend credence to its faster and stronger outcome.

Polarwx grand ensemble for tropical depression 9. The surface low is marked with an L, which is on top of the FNV3 mean in pink. All the other means were farther south.

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A few important notes from the NHC discussion: 💪 Stronger system = faster movement to the coast 📈 Some skillful models show stronger hurricane than forecast 📉 Some weakening likely as it nears landfall 🌀 Hurricane expected to grow significantly in size this week

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