iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 1h

Brian is better than all of the Fabozzi bond books together, that I was forced to read in the 1980s and 1990s!

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Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

My latest piece, which are reactions to a pair of recent articles. The first is on forward guidance, and I dive into the background of that idea. The second is on a diesel export ban. bondeconomics.substack.com/p/back-on-fo...

bondeconomics.substack.com

Back On Forward Guidance

I ran into a couple of interesting articles, and wanted to comment on them.

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Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Latest article - "What's Up With Money?" The joy of Monetarism is that there is almost always a money supply number that fits whatever your story is. bondeconomics.substack.com/p/whats-up-w...

bondeconomics.substack.com

What’s Up With Money?

I wanted to check in with the “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” story, and the recent data was behaving in a way it often does — with the adept choice of your definition of “m...

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Having worked in finance before and during GFC, I recognise the symptoms here. Finally a perspective I can get behind. Great read! www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser...

groundbrkr.com

The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

Trillions in compute commitments come due in 2027–2028. The Reset Wall reveals how the AI boom breaks, and when.

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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Very good piece on how the shit is about to hit the fan as the AI companies have to start paying for data centers when they come online in a big way, starting next year www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser... Hopefully, even brain-dead billionaires can see this coming.

groundbrkr.com

The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

Trillions in compute commitments come due in 2027–2028. The Reset Wall reveals how the AI boom breaks, and when.

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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

reminder that this is what auto supply chains in North America currently look like. Random parts can cross the US/Canadian border half a dozen times www.wsj.com/business/aut...

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

This was a good critique of oligarchs, especially the hypocrite Jamie Dimon. The same Dimon who feels so self important and enjoys his 30 million plus compensation so much that, at age 70, still cannot seem to manage building a succession plan for JP Morgan.

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

It is pretty clear that the inflation we are experiencing is not emanating from the labor market--the labor share of GDP plunging to all time lows each quarter it seems

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

“If you do not have a precise quantity associated with money, the Quantity Theory of Money cannot be falsified.” open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

open.substack.com

Random Observations

I have mainly been looking at my inflation manuscript.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

This is a better breakdown, via B of A

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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Vacation ideas.

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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

the average American says that a quarter of all Americans are native! But I do not think they actually *believe* that, I think they're just really bad at numbers.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

We haven’t even gotten to the big lockup expirations yet. $SPCX

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Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

In my latest article, I make a bold prediction! open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

open.substack.com

The U.K. Debt/GDP Ratio Is NOT Going To 1000%

The U.K.

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

‘“Forward Guidance” is a bit of academic neoclassical nonsense that neoclassicals staffing central banks took seriously, and came to the fore during the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) era.’ open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

open.substack.com

Forward Guidance Important? Yes And No.

I have returned from travels, and trying to catch up on things.

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Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

At some point, the Brits will figure out that the cat would do a better job.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

Rather enjoying playing this game again.

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Maybe good for stocks short term. But bad for society in general.

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

“The worst political strategy for progressives is to emulate the brain trust of the Starmer Labour Party and embrace the bond vigilante story line, as that story line will always be invoked in a way that almost only constrains the left …”

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Hourly wages are up 3% since 2019. Corporate profits are up 50%. Labor’s piece of the economic pie is the smallest it’s been in over 75 years, while corporate profits’ share is the *biggest* it’s been since 1950. This is what a rigged economy looks like.

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Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Short article with a "Bond Market Vigilante" angle in the U.K. and the U.S. I am getting ready for a trip shortly, so I have been cleaning up other projects recently, so less time for writing. open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

open.substack.com

Bond Vigilante Musings

Bond vigilantes are a popular topic in financial media.

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Matías Vernengo @nakedkeynes.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

This the chart I use in my first class of the history of economics. The Smith/Ricardo/Marx vs Bentham/Mill/Marshall or social conflict vs rationalist/utilitarian traditions. I teach this course less than I would like

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

When it comes to finding an EU anthem, the strategy of going with one of Beethoven's most recognizable bangers as opposed to commissioning some sort of new Europudding tune was a stroke of genius.

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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

We’re calling it the Strait of Hormuz Intervention Treaty.

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

This FT Alphaville article is excellent!

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Jon Cooper @joncooper-us.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

This photo should be on the front page of every single newspaper in America today.

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Sean Brodrick @seanbrodrick.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Global jet fuel supplies are collapsing. Lufthansa has already cut 20,000 flights.

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

I don't think I'll ever get over Clarence Thomas ruling on cases related to Jan 6 knowing that his wife was an active participant in the attempted coup. Or ruling on cases related to government regulations and a wealth tax knowing he took gifts from billionaires. It's a disgrace.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Trucking rates will definitely get your attention. (via Schwab)

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

“Those of us who are silent right now — whether we call ourselves Democrats or Republicans, whether we are in the military or are civilians, whether or not we hold public office, whether we like Donald Trump or detest him — must not remain silent.” open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

open.substack.com

Trump threatens a “whole civilization will die tonight."

This brings America into a new immoral universe

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

"Call it democracy, or call it democratic socialism, but there must be a better distribution of wealth within this country for all God's children." —MLK Jr.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 27/03/2026

This was a really good set of points about commodity futures curves. On the terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

• The key reason futures are a poor forecast is that they are first and foremost financial instruments.
Their primary function is not to predict prices, but to transfer risk. These markets exist so that producers and consumers can hedge preexisting exposures, alongside investors who speculate on price movements.
• In some markets there are clear biases. For example, producers are natural sellers of futures as they seek to lock in prices, while consumers tend to be less active hedgers. This imbalance can push futures prices below expected spot prices, resulting in backwardation. Investors who take the other side of this flow are effectively providing insurance to producers, and earn a risk premium for doing so.
• These premia persist because they compensate investors for bearing real economic risks. While they are often positive in markets dominated by producer hedging, they can also turn negative when hedging demand is concentrated on the consumer side, contributing to contango. The size of this risk premium varies over time and tends to increase during periods of heightened uncertainty, as in the current environment.

• Financial instruments are also influenced by liquidity conditions and non-fundamental demand, meaning they can move for reasons unrelated to underlying supply and demand. When cash is needed, investors can be forced to sell liquid positions that are in profit. This has certainly played a role in gold's recent large selloffs.
• Crucially, the curve is not exogenous. It influences behaviour by affecting investment, production, and consumption decisions, which in turn shape future prices. For example, low futures prices can discourage investment, tightening supply down the road and pushing prices higher.
• That's not to say that commodity futures do not reflect some level of expectation about where prices will go. Rather, those expectations are only one component of pricing and can be overwhelmed by risk premia, positioning, and market structure.

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

We need to talk about this... robertreich.substack.com/p/trading-…

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Laura Helmuth @laurahelmuth.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

This is a great list of techniques for getting real information out of a Google search and avoiding AI slop and paid results. (One thing not included is that if you add "-ai" to a search, you block the AI summary) cardcatalogforlife.substack.com/p/google-has...

cardcatalogforlife.substack.com

Google Has a Secret Reference Desk. Here's How to Use It.

40 Google features to find exactly what you need, the alternative search engines that do things Google won't, and the reference desk framework underneath all of it.

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Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 21/03/2026

Part 1 of my deep dive into Trump's corruption is live on YouTube. Rooted in his family's wealth, deception, and entitlement, Trump’s moral bankruptcy began to show at an early age. See how I break down Trump’s deep-seated, well-documented, corruption: youtube.com/watch?v=1JwUYQ5UAj4&t=157s

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Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 21/03/2026

Trump is an abhorant piece of Human garbage.

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Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

The world energy shock is coming — it will deepen inequality in ways we've seen before. Our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social piece argues that without urgent government action, the Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple through our economies and rip apart our societies. Here's why. 1/

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Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Fossil fuel price shocks are redistribution shocks. Last time, we warned windfall profits would benefit the ultra-rich at the expense of everyone else. This time, there is no excuse. The numbers are in. We need windfall profit taxes & multilateral price caps now.

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

Rooting for two very divergent outcomes in the Six Nations: England getting hammered so badly that they get the wooden spoon OR that they beat France and give Ireland the championship.

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William Blair Santos Allen @willballen.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

““Trump delivers rambling paean to self,” could be the headline for almost any of his speeches. But that wouldn’t be newsy”

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