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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty

@vanessabaird.bsky.social
459 followers 497 following 549 posts

Mom to three sets of twins (four kitties); political science professor at CU, Boulder. Ask me about TILES, my teaching technique, and why Dobbs is worse than we think. Trans / Black / immigrant lives matter. vbaird.com

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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Minor point here re, this tragedy. Yes, evil and hard-heartedness explains part of what is happening to the trans community. But it is also caused by how stupid we are about statistics. And by we I mean people with PhDs who should know better. This is Fisher. Killing people from his grave.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
~Approximately no one in the general public knows because the leaders of the R1 research universities - whose budgets, programs, & personnel are entirely or significantly dependent on federal funding - have been totally absent from the public square in explaining & collectively protesting this.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 03/10/2026
Reposting this for the title alone, although I’m sure the rest of the paper is also good!
A beta way: A tutorial on Bayesian beta regression for psychological research
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This is hard and delicious to watch. This gives us a view of what might have been. And a moment’s glimpse of us not being the stupidest, most selfish, and greediest people.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Science.
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Qasim Rashid, Esq. @qasimrashid.com · 26/09/2026
These 7 men at Cornell drugged & raped a woman for hours, then called their friends to come rape her. 2 men got expelled. 5 had to write letter of apology. 0 faced any consequences. Men throughout the societal ladder are complicit. Women are not safe around men.
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Vicki Jared @vjared.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
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Pedro Madeira Antunes @1pantunes.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Very happy to announce the very first M.Sc. in Biology thesis defence @algomau.bsky.social . This moment marks a transformative milestone in scientific research, placing our school on the map as a rising hub for advanced knowledge and discovery.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Moral disengagement.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I just wrote a book arguing that a personality trait is a possible cause of COVID attitudes, confounding the effect of party ID. I cited a 2021 marketing article arguing that travel agencies should target people with this personality trait because they would risk crowds during COVID.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I am also wondering whether some people have a personality trait that makes them fear being duped. Strong arguments and evidence may overcome motivated reasoning because people may perceive an AI as having nothing to gain. Any person on the other side of the conversation may be less believable.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I’m trying to take in at the moment all the failed experiments at trying to persuade people of things and watching them not work  and all we had to do was say there’s an artificial intelligence. Maybe this works because it’s not a human on the other side that they believe is tricking them 
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
damn.
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is a great friendly department for junior faculty
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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
somehow opening up an opportunity for SCOTUS to rule that it is mandatory for women to die from pregnancy complications
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Lily Mason @lilymasonphd.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Very excited that Uncivil Agreement won the @apsa.bsky.social @epovb.bsky.social Philip Converse Award!
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Álvaro Corral @alvarojcorral.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Congratulations to Angie Ocampo-Roland for earning the 2026 Emerging Scholar Award from the APSA Latina/o Caucus! Felicidades!!!
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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
For those folks still scratching their heads about the immigration politics of some PoC, stop doing that and read this important paper instead… 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽💯💯💯
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
One of my big academic rules: only write papers you really care about on topics you really care about. I try to follow this rule 99% of the time. This paper is one of the best examples of that, and I’m stoked it’s one step closer to being in the world. We’ve corrected proofs & you’ll have it soon!
First page of article proofs for “The Politics of Black Classification: Sociopolitical Cues and Racial Perception”
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Samuel Perry @profsamperry.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
New from me. Using the GSS wordsum vocabulary test (common proxy for cognitive ability), I find lower scores are associated with greater adherence to Christian nationalist views. This is consistent with studies finding lower scores among fundamentalists & authoritarians. 1/4 doi.org/10.1111/jssr...
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Tiffany Barnes @tiffanydbarnes.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Excited to publish this @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Element on gender & political ambition at the local level by @cwolbrecht.bsky.social, @mirya.bsky.social, Lakshmi Iyer, Samantha Chapa, Fiona Rodger and Emma Schroeder. Edited w. @dzobrien.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/element...
cambridge.org
Gender and Local Political Ambition
Cambridge Core - Politics: General Interest - Gender and Local Political Ambition
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is an interesting answer to a very important question. Congratulations!
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Alex Kirshner @alexkirshner.com · 17/09/2026
Something, eventually, is going to have to give. The available data says the organizational response is at best a huge exaggeration of the rank and file’s view. It’s just not tenable for Jewish organizations to make a campaign out of bouncing Macklemore (who criticized Israel 12 years after apologizing for a likely antisemitic costume) from NFL stadiums while standing down when Kanye West (who released a song called “Heil Hitler” in 2025) prepares to play the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium without institutional opposition. (The ADL has condemned him before; it is not, however, running a PR effort this month to deny him a venue.) Can this really continue? It’s also worth asking one other question of someone like Greenblatt, who has made combating antisemitism his life’s work. Does he look around at the response to this story and think he’s doing a good job?
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I would love to find out I’m missing a kind of argument that does not fit into one of these categories!
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I can’t find a class in higher education that gives an overview of the kinds of arguments that we make, and how to use evidence to support each kind of argument. And I can’t seem to convince people that this is a skill that does not come naturally to students. 
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I’m writing a book called Using Evidence Well: What your professors expect you to know but won’t teach you. If you give students example statements, they do not have the skill of being able to identify which is which. Or distinguishing facts from each. More difficult than it seems.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Single event causality: What caused WWII or my stomachache. Gen predictive causality: What causes war or stomachaches. Text interpretation Meaning making or labeling events, variables, eras: Is Trump “populist”? Ethical reasoning
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
What a great article!
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I just shared this with my Stats class, where I teach that we make five kinds of arguments in academia, and one is how we make sense of our world. This article falls into the category I call "Labeling events and data" and asks whether the word "fall" accurately describes what happened in Rome.
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Emily Guskin @emgusk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Excited to report our journal article has finally published! academic.oup.com/jssam/advanc...
academic.oup.com
Who are We Missing? Using Administrative and Contextual Data to Measure and Correct Partisan Nonresponse in Opinion Surveys
Abstract. The 2020 US pre-election polling had the highest error in national polls in 40 years and significantly underestimated Donald Trump’s support. An
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Seth Rockman @sethrockman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This is a big one: Brown University is searching for the next director of the Simmons Center for the Study of Slavery and Justice. Please help us identify excellent candidates to lead this signature program into the future. Please write me with ideas; please share in your networks; please apply.
networks.h-net.org
Brown University - Professor and Director of the Simmons Center for the Study of Slavery and Justice | H-Net
1. Academic Accomplishment. We seek a scholar with a strong scholarly record, including excellence in both research and teaching, appropriate for appointment at the level of full professor in a social science, humanities, or arts department at Brown.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Providing information is not teaching.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
None of them has any expertise. Some of them, like HHS horror show author Kristopher Kaliebe, lie on their CV that they have peer-reviewed research on transgender medicine when they are really letters to the editor. I have a hard time figuring out whether they're dumb, evil, or both.
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Verasight @verasight.io · 10/09/2026
Congratulations to Erin Fitz and @kylesaunders.bsky.social on a new article in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, published with Verasight survey data.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Just like all the transgender medicine studies, the inferences are based on "low-quality" evidence.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Very fancy modeling techniques to study the impact of rain on the amount of time children play outside. Conclusion: Though this is correlated, we have no idea whether rain causes kids to play outside less.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The bestest boy. Now, I love a duck I don't know. I hope he gets well soon.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Also relevant: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
press.princeton.edu
Deep Roots
The lasting effects of slavery on contemporary political attitudes in the American South
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Who did I vote for? I earned 8,147 points over 10 voters on medium mode (avg 815). Model 853, base rate 744. profmusgrave.github.io/votergame2024/
profmusgrave.github.io
Who did I vote for?
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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Brooklyn: Mark your calendars for Oct 5 and come hang out at Greenlight Bookstore for the launch event of An American Problem! www.eventbrite.com/e/kevin-t-mo...
eventbrite.com
Kevin T. Morris (at LAPC)
Greenlight neighbor Kevin T. Morris launches a sweeping history of the Voting Rights Act and the attacks it has suffered.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
It NEVER understands me either! I figured I would be more southern but apparently not!
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
If you’re at #APSA2026 and want to hear @smotus.bsky.social, @juliaazari.bsky.social, and a cavalcade of others talk about Seth’s new book THE ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM, about Trump’s takeover of the GOP, come to Hynes 200 right the f**k now!
static.klipy.com
Its Happening
ALT: Its Happening
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Influences: New Mexico, then Houston, and now Colorado.
This is a map of the U.S. that shows a person's (my) dialect being more like New Mexico, Texas, and California (red) and less like the Northeast coast and the Dakotas.
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Or daughters’ friends.
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Puff the Magic Hater @mskellymhayes.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
For years, people have asked @tanuja.bsky.social and me how we built and sustained Understory, our spiritual and emotional support group for activists. So we made a toolkit to help others build spaces of their own.
organizingmythoughts.org
The Understory Toolkit
Creating spaces of reflection, belonging, and collective care
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Rachel Blaifeder @rblaifeder.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
All set up for #APSA2026! Come by and check out one of our 19 (and counting) prize winners, forthcoming titles, new books across American, comparative, IR, and theory, and highlights (looking at you, @smotus.bsky.social & @mirandayaver.bsky.social). 75% off HBs, 60% off PBs. See you at 9am!
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Unsurprisingly, this was picked up by right-wing media, which uses causal language explicitly. www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/se...
washingtontimes.com
Does supporting ‘gender ideology’ make you more likely to justify violence?
A federal study finds that people who most strongly support “gender ideology” are more likely to justify political violence, based on reactions to events including Charlie Kirk’s killing. Researchers ...
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vanessabaird.bsky.social Stop agents of scientific uncertainty @vanessabaird.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Also, the report conveniently omits the descriptive stats for support for political violence, which is extraordinarily low. So, this study is STOOPID in a bunch of ways.
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