iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Axios reports that the recent "Peace Missiles" sent to the UAE indicate that Iranian delegates are headed to Pakistan with a new set of concessions.

010

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

𝓔𝔁𝓬𝓵𝓾𝓭𝓮𝓭 𝓜𝓾𝓰𝔀𝓾𝓶𝓹 @excludedmugwump.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Hey, journalists! Could you do us all a favour? Fact check Donald Trump BEFORE you quote him. Then, if he's lying, we don't need the quote. A simple statement "Donald Trump lied again" will do. Save us all a LOT of time - you don't have to write a lot of nonsense, we don't have to read it.

1052601661

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

The star has gone nova but the light hasn't reached us yet bsky.app/profile/econ...

010

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

There of course are these reports: Numerous ships making the break for the Strait of Hormuz this evening have made abrupt U-turns and are heading back towards the Persian Gulf. Over a dozen ships have already turned back.

11449102

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Urea will tell us more than the flights of fancy in oil futures I suspect

000

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Love seeing the Iran experts on Twitter deleting their takes from yesterday. Forever correct

010

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Here he is tonight. Working hard to end his War in Iran and make life more affordable for Americans like he promised.

83759751834

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

I'm going to keep posting this to remind myself that experts are no more immune to self-delusion than anyone else. Anyone who's read Tetlock would know this. To be fair I posted this earlier today because it seemed so not in keeping with what was unfolding.

100

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Vance: We have not reached for agreement. They have chosen not to accept our terms.

3051040237

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

I don't want to live in a world where the United States tries to negotiate with Iran over a partnership where both sides would engage in rent-seeking--or if you prefer highway robbery--in the Persian Gulf.

000

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Michelle Goldberg @michellegoldberg.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Started/going, Sohrab Ahmari edition

541621251

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shibley Telhami @stelhami.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Potentially big: Netanyahu seems to contradict understanding between Trump and Iran as reported by the Pakistani mediator; says that for Israel, ceasefire does not in include Lebanon.

044

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Netanyahu Prime Minister's Office: ...The United States has informed Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, which are shared by the US, Israel, and Israel's regional allies, as part of the upcoming negotiations. The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

000

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Jonathan M. Katz @katz.theracket.news · 08/04/2026

So to recap, Trump: - Started a war for no reason on the belief that Iran would surrender immediately - Killed thousands including over 100 elementary schoolgirls - Threatened genocide up to and including nuclear war - Then backed down in exchange for a worse position than the US had before ?

741326323

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 08/04/2026

Good lord. If we cede control of the strait to Iran…. And agree to REPARATIONS…. This will be the biggest humiliation in American history

72044791104

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

"the art of the deal"

26588134

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Sarah Posner @sarahposner.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

NYT: Trump “desperate” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/w...

In this case Mr. Trump appeared desperate for a way to escape his own threats and rhetoric, and to engineer a Pakistani proposal that he would then sign on to. Just two days after calling the Iranian leadership “crazy bastards” and telling them they would soon be “living in hell,” he praised them on Tuesday as “a different, smarter, and less radicalized” class of leaders, predicting “something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?

4682184

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

SimonB 🇳🇿🤝🇺🇦🌻🚜🍉🐆🚚🚁 @simonboxer.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Now the Vietnam War has been replaced as the United States worst defeat in history. Happy 250th Birthday.

001

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

If we ever needed an emperor has no clothes moment, this was it. But at what a cost.

000

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Yup they still have all the cards…..

1435262

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

$2 million per ship — to cross a Strait that was free six weeks ago. @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/w...

1606214867075

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

🔴 Iran's Supreme National Security Council: 10-point proposal to US included acceptance of enrichment

1017256

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

So they still have the nukes, radicals in charge, control the SoH, but we sunk their Navy….. Can’t wait to hear his spin on this one…..

1820134

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

If Iran remains in control of the strait, it hasn't really opened, has it?

000

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

IRGC on X:

519246

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council claims Tehran achieved a “historic victory” over the U.S. and allies, says Washington agreed in principle to a 10-point plan including sanctions relief, non-aggression, and regional military withdrawal.-Fars News Agency

27525135

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Any outcome reached today will not replace the oil and gas that never entered into the system

010

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

I think what’s happening is that, for the first time in his life, Trump is being told “no.” Having dealt with people who have this particular personality disorder, there’s no obvious limit to what he’ll do to himself or others trying to avoid accepting it.

1226752

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

* IRAN CUTS OFF DIRECT DIPLOMACY WITH U.S. -- WSJ @reuters.com

1322224658

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Dear Trump: That's not how negotiations work bsky.app/profile/ship...

000

Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Claimed to be a human shield, power plant, Tabriz.

100

Reposted by Patrick O'Neil

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

From The Wall Street Journal's daily markets note by Spencer Jakab. #markets @wsj.com

44613