Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Urea will tell us more than the flights of fancy in oil futures I suspect 000
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 12/04/2026I'm going to keep posting this to remind myself that experts are no more immune to self-delusion than anyone else. Anyone who's read Tetlock would know this. To be fair I posted this earlier today because it seemed so not in keeping with what was unfolding. 100
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 08/04/2026And ...Tasmim thinks something very different just happened. 000
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Claimed to be a human shield, power plant, Tabriz. 100
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Looks like the Haim Synagogue in Tehran was destroyed. www.7dorim.com/en/pictures/... 000
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Iranian strikes on Saudi petrochemical facilities 000
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 06/04/2026In what world is anything that is going on suggesting that things are going to get better 020
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 05/04/2026While Trump descends into madness Iran continues to troll 010
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 01/04/2026"The Czech Republic Stands with Ukraine." CZ Embassy in Beijing. 000
Patrick O'Neil @upspatrick.bsky.social · 29/03/2026Waiting for US media to publish this. Too scared? 022
