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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 21h

this doesn't answer my question 😭

sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 22h

not even trying to be rude, i love supporting women in pop, and i love girl groups, but i genuinely don't know who these women are

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 22h

Question for people in Phoenix, Arizona. How does everything not melt there

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 28/09/2026

NEWS — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear criticizes fellow Democrats who say transgender athletes should be barred from women’s sports. “That is not the party that we are. We start as a party of compassion and empathy.”

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

call me mayor mamdani the way i'm inviting my man over for coalition-building and quiche

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

At this point, I feel good saying Democrats will have at least a 10 seat majority in the House and will have a net gain of seats in the Senate (maybe not a majority). Everything past that is very uncertain.

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Link to House ratings, hopefully this is more accessibility-friendly: currents.leaflet.pub/3mwfakpm7qs2a

currents.leaflet.pub

My House ratings right now

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Okay, I know this isn't pretty, but I promised a publication tonight, so I'm doing it tonight. Check out the first post to my new Leaflet!

currents.leaflet.pub

My House ratings right now

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Links to maps here: yapms.com/app?m=cyvczc... yapms.com/app?m=yop5as... yapms.com/app?m=d5m1cn...

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

TRISK'S CRYSTAL BALL, 25 SEPTEMBER 2026: House: 239 Democrats - 196 Republicans Senate: 53 Democrats - 47 Republicans Governors: 28 Democrats - 22 Republicans

My election ratings for the United States House of Representatives. I am sorry this map is not accessible -- I will have an accessible version in a Leaflet that I will link below when it's done.

My election ratings for the United States Senate.

Solid Democratic seats (all of the incumbents are Democrats):
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Delaware: Chris Coons
Illinois: Open seat held by Dick Durbin
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
Virginia: Mark Warner

Likely Democratic seats:
Georgia: Jon Ossoff, a Democrat
Minnesota: Open seat held by Tina Smith, a Democrat
North Carolina: Open seat held by Thom Tillis, a Republican

Lean Democratic seats:
Alaska: Dan Sullivan, a Republican (D pickup)
Maine: Susan Collins, a Republican (D pickup)
Michigan: Open seat held by Gary Peters, a Democrat
New Hampshire: Open seat held by Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat

Tilt Democratic seats:
Iowa: Open seat held by Joni Ernst, a Republican (D pickup)
Ohio (special): Jon Husted, a Republican (D pickup)
Texas: Open seat held by John Cornyn, a Republican (D pickup)

Tilt Republican seats:
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts, a Republican

Lean Republican seats (all of which are held by Republicans):
Florida (special): Ashley Moody
Kansas: Roger Marshall
South Carolina: Darline Graham Nordone

Likely Republican seats (all of which are held by Republicans):
Louisiana: Open seat held by Bill Cassidy
Montana: Open seat held by Steve Daines
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith

Solid Republican seats (all of which are held by Republicans):
Alabama: Open seat held by Tommy Tuberville
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
Idaho: Jim Risch
Kentucky: Open seat held by Mitch McConnell
Oklahoma: Open seat held by Alan Armstrong
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Bill Hagerty
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Open seat held by Cynthia Lummis

My election ratings for governors of the United States.

Solid Democratic seats (all are held by Democrats):
California: Open seat held by Gavin Newsom
Colorado: Open seat held by Jared Polis
Connecticut: Ned Lamont
Hawaii: Josh Green
Illinois: J.B. Pritzker
Maryland: Wes Moore
Maine: Open seat held by Janet Mills
Massachusetts: Maura Healey
Minnesota: Open seat held by Tim Walz
New Mexico: Open seat held by Michelle Lujan Grisham
New York: Kathy Hochul
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro
Rhode Island: Dan McKee

Likely Democratic seats:
Arizona: Katie Hobbs, a Democrat
Iowa: Open seat held by Kim Reynolds, a Republican (D pickup)
Michigan: Open seat held by Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat
Oregon: Tina Kotek, a Democrat

Lean Democratic seats:
Alaska: Open seat held by Mike Dunleavy, a Republican (D pickup)
Georgia: Open seat held by Brian Kemp, a Republican (D pickup)
Wisconsin: Open seat held by Tony Evers, a Democrat

Tilt Democratic seats:
Nevada: Joe Lombardo, a Republican (D pickup)
Ohio: Open seat held by Mike DeWine, a Republican (D pickup)

Tilt Republican seats:
Texas: Greg Abbott

Lean Republican seats:
Florida: Open seat held by Ron DeSantis, a Republican
Kansas: Open seat held by Laura Kelly, a Democrat (R pickup)

Likely Republican seats (all incumbents are Republicans):
Alabama: Open seat held by Kay Ivey
Nebraska: Jim Pillen
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte
South Carolina: Open seat held by Henry McMaster
Vermont: Phil Scott

Solid Republican seats (all incumbents are Republicans):
Arkansas: Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Idaho: Brad Little
Oklahoma: Open seat held by Kevin Stitt
South Dakota: Larry Rhoden
Tennessee: Open seat held by Bill Lee
Wyoming: Open seat held by Mark Gordon

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

for the next five and a half weeks i will become an election forecaster. this is because i think it would be funny to get more races correct than sabato for the record, in 2024 i whiffed on 8 house races and 2 senate races, vs. sabato whiffing on 7 house races and 1 senate race let's do this

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

you're missing the part where it says linus lost re-election

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

i'd eat it but with a fork and knife to spite them

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

hello bluesky. did anything interesting happen in the last month?

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

the orange line in DC is like if you took this idea and did it wrong

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

fun fact: the native Onondawaga (Seneca) people also believed there was a sea monster in the lake, so this monster is at least 500 years old

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disc horse bot @horsedisc.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

some of y’all have internalized classism against stanky Zoomers who look like they were conceived in a Golden Corral and it shows 🍑

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AI Media Labeler @labeler.blackwall.gg · 20/06/2026

This labeler is now maintaining a blocklist for LLM bots that automatically interact without consent or interaction

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

we love to see a julie ragbeer moment

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Eb @ebthen.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

More and more, I think a super important things adults can teach children is to be okay with having been wrong, admitting to having been wrong, and course-correcting on the basis of new evidence. So much of the harmful behaviors we encounter are about people who are Not Okay with being wrong.

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

this fuck-ass song has been stuck in my head for the past 24 hours and it's arguably not even a song 😭

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

can you can you can you can you survive MODELLAND 💜

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

douglas "voted 68%-30% for harris" county, which is a better margin of victory than she had in vermont

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

"Are you ready for your hyperpop lessons?" SOPHIE gulped Emily Montes nodded 100 gecs shuddered Jane Remover blinked nervously "Yes, Tyra Banks" they said in unison

youtu.be

Tyra Banks' Homemade Modelland Song

YouTube video by Tyra Banks

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

People are always trying to brainstorm ways to make Discord better. Here's my idea for how to make it worse: Discord Nitro for Couples

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

"how could this happen?" asks party that had all good alternatives to frontrunner candidate, which they had fears about for months, drop out or switch races

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Lizzie O'Leary @lizzieohreally.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

My mayor Muslim My bagel Jewish My milkshake ducked That’s so fucked

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Nintendo of America [Twitter/X Parody] @nintendooamerica.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

"Mario is better" "Sonic is better" we hate SEGA as much as anyone but we posted Mario and Sonic making out at the start of the month, can you guys learn to let people be happy?

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

what could this POSSIBLY mean 😭

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

is phil scott just trolling or are we actually on our way to an open vermont governor election

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weeder @weeder.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Times I want super fast charging: ✔️ Plugging in phone ✔️ Retail checkout ❌ Encountering elephant

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

some things are for kids and that's okay. this is far from the first yoshi game that's low difficulty

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

pokémon blood diamond and stolen pearl

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

okay i'm bored. let's just have pride start today instead of next week

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

even though bagelgate didn't really go over well i can appreciate her trying to do bagelgate 2

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

look at my opposition party dawg 😭

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

the report (which wasn't even finished) is filled with annotations made by the DNC noting missing sources or flawed information. on page 21, the author forgets Delaware had a gubernatorial election in 2024. you can't make this shit up

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

they did it! they found godzilla 💚

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sabato's trisk-al ball @tr13sk.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

am i going crazy or is there a resemblance

photo of Joe Morelle (D, NY-25), back when he was majority leader of the New York State Assembly

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