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Thomas Weinandy

@tomweinandy.bsky.social
69 followers 105 following 115 posts

PhD Economist @Upside | Researching & speaking on consumer behavior, the economy & industry trends | Ask me about fuel, restaurant & grocery retail

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Also of note: prices for regular gasoline typically peak in the summer, while diesel prices peak in the winter. They may both come from the same barrel of crude, but they are wildly different.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
You gotta spend money to make money, and you gotta burn diesel to transport diesel. My latest fuel blog explains why diesel prices in particular have been climbing around the country and why Texas is more exposed than most other states. www.upside.com/business/ret...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
We've gone from "data is the new oil" to "AI is the new food". Excellent article from @gregip.bsky.social on whether the economic potential and limitations of AI meet the implied valuations of frontier labs. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/will...
wsj.com
Will America Spend 9% of Its GDP on AI? The Industry Is Counting on It
To justify staggering investment sums, Americans will have to spend as much of their income on this one technology as they do on food.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
When gas prices rise, 88% of consumers change how they spend on food. Only 19% lean harder on a restaurant loyalty program. Price pressure isn't sending diners to your app. New report: www.upside.com/business/ret...
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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy
Cooper Katz McKim @cooperkatzmckim.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Sulfur, a key ingredient in fertilizer, costs more than $1100/ metric ton. The previous 10-year avg: $170. You may have also heard this week that diesel prices hit a new record. Rabobank predicts food inflation in the States to rise another 3 to 5% in 2027. Read on here
npr.org
What expensive sulfur means for your dinner table
Oil supplies are falling, sulfur prices are threatening food costs, and we measure Lego against Hollywood
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hopefully OpenAI also threw in a 1-topping pizza for the them
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
[NEW] US drivers paid an additional $66B in gas since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began. Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel. Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...
A line chart shows that, since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began, year-over-year change in spending per gas station has gone up 24%, while gallons bought have gone down 3.5%. Published from Fuel Trends by Upside.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Every 1% rise in gas prices → 0.51% fewer grocery visits, 0.59% less grocery revenue. Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇 www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
2nd plate: Exploitation. Now that you know what food is most preferred, fill the plate with that food. 3rd plate: dessert. There's no economic theory here — I just like dessert.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
The buffet problem is 1) the # of possible meals > stomach size & 2) as an experience good, food quality is only known by consuming that good. 1st plate: Exploration. Fill it with a small sample of everything worth trying. This gives variety and knowledge of which food is delicious on a given day.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Love the topic! I am a sucker for a buffet, and I use explore vs exploit principles to determine how to optimize an all-you-care-to-eat meal. My family is probably tired of me talking about animal foraging every time we dine out for Chinese. Good luck on the journey 🙏
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
This is my fantasy podcast draft 👆
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Behavior change continues both inside the convenience store and at the pump. Just because gas prices are inelastic doesn't mean consumers don't change their habits. www.upside.com/business/ret...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
My latest research is now live in Upside's new report about the "Loyalty Plateau". It turns out most loyalty members belong to MANY other loyalty programs, spreading out their spend and reducing the program's impact for retailers. www.upside.com/reports/esca...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
But on the other, other hand... theshelbyreport.com/2026/05/08/u...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Consumers, not economist, decide when inflation ends siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu
The way we were: Price-level shocks and consumers’ memories
Other
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Taxi vs. Uber/Lyft drivers respond very differently to high gas prices. Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Despite the spike in gas prices, U.S. households still aren't driving that much less. I had a great conversation with the FT about the many other ways consumers are shifting behavior due to fuel prices, even as miles driven have gone up since February. www.ft.com/content/9726...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
What a gem from @patcohen.bsky.social & @bencasselman.bsky.social. By my math, 1 fruitcake is roughly equivalent to 5 Scaramuccis. This will be on the test.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Yes
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Oil’s off April highs, but gas prices haven’t followed. Why? Seasonal forces: higher summer driving demand + pricier summer-blend fuel. Some relief: prices dipped below $4 last week, but real relief likely needs full Strait of Hormuz reopening. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
Oil is down from its early April highs, but gas prices nationally have barely budged. What gives? While the war in Iran might have been unexpected, there’s another reason that gas prices have been… |...
Oil is down from its early April highs, but gas prices nationally have barely budged. What gives? While the war in Iran might have been unexpected, there’s another reason that gas prices have been st...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Quick math: 20–12 = 8. That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
Sign Up | LinkedIn
500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Woof
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
It's all retailers, not just gas stations, affected by rising gas prices. When gas prices increase, customers make up 80-100% of that lost money by cutting back in non-fuel discretionary spending. www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
cspdailynews.com
How global events are shaping U.S. fuel prices: Insights from Dr. Thomas Weinandy
Upside’s principal research economist discusses oil market disruptions, consumer behavior at the pump and inside c-stores
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Gas prices are high—but likely still lower than a pure supply shock would imply. Why? Markets are pricing in a relatively short war and eventual supply recovery. If that changes, gas could climb a lot more. Video for the breakdown. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
Hot take: gas prices are actually LOWER than they should be. That’s right. They’ve skyrocketed, and yet they should probably be higher. I know it sounds crazy, but it’s hard to overstate the size… |...
Hot take: gas prices are actually LOWER than they should be. That’s right. They’ve skyrocketed, and yet they should probably be higher. I know it sounds crazy, but it’s hard to overstate the size of...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
High gas prices can squeeze food budgets, but so far we’re not seeing a big pullback in spending. Upside data show c-store demand dipped briefly, then rebounded. The bigger risk may be ahead: higher fuel and fertilizer costs could pressure prices and retailers. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
I’m tracking how high gas prices are impacting food purchases. The answer? Not all that much. At least not yet. Even though fuel and food are two distinct categories, they’re intrinsically… | Thomas...
I’m tracking how high gas prices are impacting food purchases. The answer? Not all that much. At least not yet. Even though fuel and food are two distinct categories, they’re intrinsically connected...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
It's official: a regular gallon of gasoline in the US now costs over $4. My recent video explaining how this is going to affect consumer behavior is ways you might now expect is now featured by LinkedIn News. www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
linkedin.com
Gas prices top $4 in US for first time since 2022 | LinkedIn
According to AAA, the average gallon now costs $4.018, its highest level since the first months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy
Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
BREAKING: $4 is back. The national average has just reached $4/gal according to GasBuddy, the highest since August 8, 2022. The rise is now the largest monthly increase GasBuddy has ever recorded: $1.059/gal for gasoline, $1.701/gal for diesel.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.
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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy
Salome @salome-gongadze.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it. Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
A few days after the Iran war began, a gas station cashier told me while I was buying coffee: “You should get gas too — everyone nearby raised prices by 30 cents and we haven’t yet.” Oil shocks hit fast, but stations usually change prices only once a day. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
A few days after the war with Iran started, I went to buy some coffee at my local gas station and the cashier told me “You should get gas too — everyone nearby raised prices by 30 cents and we… | Thom...
A few days after the war with Iran started, I went to buy some coffee at my local gas station and the cashier told me “You should get gas too — everyone nearby raised prices by 30 cents and we haven’t...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
I'm honored to have been featured in a LinkedIn News roundup debunking the claim that gas stations are benefiting from surging gas prices. (Spoiler: they hate it as much as drivers.) www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
linkedin.com
Gas prices near $4 a gallon and consumers feel strain | LinkedIn
Meanwhile, diesel just surged past $5 for just the second time ever, and prolonged price shocks could be devastating to trucking, farming and transportation.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
To steel man this decision, I think it would be net good to replace clickbait with more informative headlines
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Higher gas prices are painful, but that does not automatically mean stations are gouging. Right now, the better explanation is higher crude and wholesale costs from the Iran-related supply shock, not fatter retail margins.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
The Jones Act waiver may help marine-dependent fuel markets like Florida and Puerto Rico, but it’s too narrow to meaningfully lower gas prices nationwide. Good for logistics at the margin, not a game changer at your local pump. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
Are you keeping up with the Jones Act? Today, POTUS temporarily waived this little-known law to bring down gas prices. I’m not so sure though — here’s how I see it. The Jones Act is a 1920 law… | T...
Are you keeping up with the Jones Act? Today, POTUS temporarily waived this little-known law to bring down gas prices. I’m not so sure though — here’s how I see it. The Jones Act is a 1920 law that...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Is fuel heading for a repeat of 2022? Hopefully not. In 2022, ~14% of global oil (Russia) was disrupted by sanctions. Today, ~20% flows through Hormuz, but this shock may be shorter & prices started ~$20/bbl lower. Big risk remains—but markets expect resolution. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
linkedin.com
Is fuel heading towards a repeat of 2022? I’m cautiously optimistic that’s not the case. Here’s why. First, some background. In 2022, Russia provided about 14% of the global oil supply. When the… | T...
Is fuel heading towards a repeat of 2022? I’m cautiously optimistic that’s not the case. Here’s why. First, some background. In 2022, Russia provided about 14% of the global oil supply. When the U.S....
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Getting lots of questions on how the Middle East conflict is impacting U.S. gas prices. 1st of n videos: Why not just produce more oil? ~20% of global supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—and it’s effectively closed. That ties OPEC’s hands. The U.S.? Not that simple.
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David J. Bier @davidjbier.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The sophisticated empirical arguments against immigration are disproven, but all the objections that matter most politically are just complete nonsense that you don't need any complex analysis to reject...🧵
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
The spike in US #gasprices has been extremely close to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine spike. Through 12 days, the national average in 2022 rose ~75c/gal, while this time in 2026, prices are up an average ~70c/gal over the same time frame.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
I surveyed 1,700+ consumers and 79% changed their shopping behavior in some way because of tariffs. The recent SCOTUS ruling won't change that anytime soon. www.supermarketnews.com/grocery-tren...
supermarketnews.com
Tariffs might change, but shoppers won’t
Retailers need to make the bargains easier to find
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
What will it take for gas prices to fall? Most ideas floating around right now are band-aids. The only sustainable solution is reopening tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, retail gas prices will take time to adjust. www.texastribune.org/2026/03/11/t...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
For all of the attention on regular gas prices right now, not enough people are tracking movement in diesel. Distillate sales were in decline before the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and now rising prices add additional headwinds to the commercial transportation sector. www.upside.com/business/ret...
upside.com
Tracking retail fuel trends: February 2026 | Upside
Fuel prices jumped up in February, but seasonal trends — not just geopolitical conflict — were behind the movement. Get a closer look at our monthly recap of the industry here.
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Consumers love loyalty-program value—so much that they join and use multiple programs in every category. It’s not just grocery: today’s uncommitted shopper is a store-hopper, spreading loyalty across many retailers. money.usnews.com/money/person...
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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Kudos to the @budgetlab.bsky.social for breaking down where we stand following today's partial repeal of tariffs. It's clear, concise & current budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
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