iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I'm on my way to Cleveland for another NABE annual meeting! Ping me if you're attending #NABE2026 too and I'll seek you out to make an in-person connection

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

You gotta spend money to make money, and you gotta burn diesel to transport diesel. My latest fuel blog explains why diesel prices in particular have been climbing around the country and why Texas is more exposed than most other states. www.upside.com/business/ret...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

When gas prices rise, 88% of consumers change how they spend on food. Only 19% lean harder on a restaurant loyalty program. Price pressure isn't sending diners to your app. New report: www.upside.com/business/ret...

001 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Hopefully OpenAI also threw in a 1-topping pizza for the them

001 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

[NEW] US drivers paid an additional $66B in gas since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began. Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel. Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...

A line chart shows that, since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began, year-over-year change in spending per gas station has gone up 24%, while gallons bought have gone down 3.5%. Published from Fuel Trends by Upside.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Every 1% rise in gas prices → 0.51% fewer grocery visits, 0.59% less grocery revenue. Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇 www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Behavior change continues both inside the convenience store and at the pump. Just because gas prices are inelastic doesn't mean consumers don't change their habits. www.upside.com/business/ret...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

My latest research is now live in Upside's new report about the "Loyalty Plateau". It turns out most loyalty members belong to MANY other loyalty programs, spreading out their spend and reducing the program's impact for retailers. www.upside.com/reports/esca...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

But on the other, other hand... theshelbyreport.com/2026/05/08/u...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Taxi vs. Uber/Lyft drivers respond very differently to high gas prices. Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Despite the spike in gas prices, U.S. households still aren't driving that much less. I had a great conversation with the FT about the many other ways consumers are shifting behavior due to fuel prices, even as miles driven have gone up since February. www.ft.com/content/9726...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

What a gem from @patcohen.bsky.social & @bencasselman.bsky.social. By my math, 1 fruitcake is roughly equivalent to 5 Scaramuccis. This will be on the test.

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it. Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...

011 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Higher gas prices are painful, but that does not automatically mean stations are gouging. Right now, the better explanation is higher crude and wholesale costs from the Iran-related supply shock, not fatter retail margins.

001 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Getting lots of questions on how the Middle East conflict is impacting U.S. gas prices. 1st of n videos: Why not just produce more oil? ~20% of global supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—and it’s effectively closed. That ties OPEC’s hands. The U.S.? Not that simple.

001 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

What will it take for gas prices to fall? Most ideas floating around right now are band-aids. The only sustainable solution is reopening tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, retail gas prices will take time to adjust. www.texastribune.org/2026/03/11/t...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Consumers love loyalty-program value—so much that they join and use multiple programs in every category. It’s not just grocery: today’s uncommitted shopper is a store-hopper, spreading loyalty across many retailers. money.usnews.com/money/person...

100 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Kudos to the @budgetlab.bsky.social for breaking down where we stand following today's partial repeal of tariffs. It's clear, concise & current budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

This chart was very insightful for me, showing how inflation blame as recently as December was at comparable levels to peak inflation in 2022.

030 3

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Were you among the 230 million Americans affected by Winter Storm Fern? My latest blog shows which states saw a 24% decline in #fuel during the cold snap 🥶 www.upside.com/business/ret...

Stations in the path of Winter Storm Fern sold far fewer gallons
Average change in gallons sold per station, week of 1/19/26 to 1/26/26 Upside

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

New survey of business economists is out today from @nabe-econ.bsky.social & median recession odds have dipped to 11-25%. There are clear cracks in consumer spending & the labor market, but this survey reinforces how the economy remains resilient amid current challenges. #econsky

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

I predict rising employment in #AI doomerism over the next decade. #econsky

100 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

@elliswonk.bsky.social Great and festive newsletter this week! Let me know if you ever want to talk more about this. I work with price and volume data from 30k gas stations in the US.

110 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

National #gas prices reached new lows in November, levels not seen since before the invasion of Ukraine. Some headlines highlighted how sign prices fell below $3, but our data at Upside shows that is not out of the ordinary. www.upside.com/business/ret...

010 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

Higher-income consumers are propping up the #economy right now. Survey of 3k consumers: households $75k+ are spending more; under $75k are cutting back. Analysis of 10B transactions: per-store spend up <1% — below inflation. Full report: www.upside.com/reports/the-... #grocery #restaurant #fuel

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Fact 1: Retailers also hate inflation. Fact 2: There are few things as satisfying as a good ribbon chart. www.upside.com/business/ret... #EconSky

030 3

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Loyalty cards may still be on the rise, but #gas stations are seeing fewer swipes from their branded credit and debit cards — 40% declines in the last four years alone. This is just the latest evidence that customer #loyalty is changing for retailers of all types. Full story: lnkd.in/g88H_ixE

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

It isn't the youngest consumers who are the most digital — it's the busiest ones. Millennials lead online #grocery because they have more money, larger families, and less time. More digital shopping habits here: www.upside.com/business/ret...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

Guys, I just found out how to unlock unlimited economic growth #econsky

020 2

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Events like the 12-day war in the Middle East can shock oil prices but #gas stations actually absorb much of the short-term volatility, smoothing out price changes for consumers. Read the story in my June 2025 update to Fuel Trends by Upside: www.upside.com/blog/fuel-tr...

030 3

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

I am grateful for the chance to speak at #GroceryTech2025 about the value to customer retention to retailers. Thanks to Progressive Grocer to put on the engaging event!

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Shout out to @axios.com for adding context to my research on how DC customers are sacrificing #restaurant quality for affordability! Full story here: www.axios.com/local/washin...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

A famous 2001 study shows that increasing customer retention rates by 5% increases profits by 25% to 95%. I'm exited update that research at GroceryTech 2025 on the relationship between retention and profitability in the era of digital convenience, loyalty apps, and personalized offers. #grocery

100 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

I’m grateful for NACS inviting me to speak about the outlook for the US economy at their 2025 State of the Industry Summit. I’m continuously impressed by the nimbleness of the convenience industry.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 06/04/2025

Most investment banks don’t have the courage to forecast #oil prices 18,000 years into the future. JPMorgan is not most banks.

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I caught the latest Slate Money podcast, and I am happy to tell you @emilypeck.bsky.social that egg sales do spike right before Easter 🐰 Source: I pulled this from 100+ grocery stores, as reported here www.linkedin.com/pulse/march-...

120 2

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Regular and diesel fuel are out! Midgrade and premium are in! Well, sort of... I'm excited to be featured in the latest @cspdailynews.bsky.social magazine cover story "Inside the Mind of Your Consumer" about the rising popularity (and profitability) of premium and midgrade #fuel.

100 1

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Consumers are willing to pay a holiday premium for celebration essentials, but grocers still need to convince shoppers to choose *their* store. As I say in a new #Grocery Dive article: no store wants to be the one to run out of #eggs on Easter. progressivegrocer.com/grocers-guid...

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

I regret to inform everyone that the slushies machince is down

000 0

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

I'm excited to announce that I will be speaking at the NACS 2025 State of the Industry Summit about consumer behavior and macroeconomic trends impacting #fuel and #convenience retailers. Details and registration info here: www.convenience.org/events/SOI#/

030 3

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

To put the #tariffs on Chinese goods in context, these are only going to raise prices on a subset of imports. Louise Loo of @OxfordEconomics predicts the tariffs are an effective rate of 2ppt. Still not good for the American consumer though. Chart from @piie.com (with my red line). #EconSky

142 4

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

#Inflation still remains stubbornly above it's 2% target, reinforcing the Fed's signal to slow down interest rate cuts. It looks like #grocery prices are creeping back up which is worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise today's report was a nothing burger. 🍔 #EconSky

010 1