iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

You gotta spend money to make money, and you gotta burn diesel to transport diesel. My latest fuel blog explains why diesel prices in particular have been climbing around the country and why Texas is more exposed than most other states. www.upside.com/business/ret...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

We've gone from "data is the new oil" to "AI is the new food". Excellent article from @gregip.bsky.social on whether the economic potential and limitations of AI meet the implied valuations of frontier labs. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/will...

wsj.com

Will America Spend 9% of Its GDP on AI? The Industry Is Counting on It

To justify staggering investment sums, Americans will have to spend as much of their income on this one technology as they do on food.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

When gas prices rise, 88% of consumers change how they spend on food. Only 19% lean harder on a restaurant loyalty program. Price pressure isn't sending diners to your app. New report: www.upside.com/business/ret...

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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy

Cooper Katz McKim @cooperkatzmckim.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Sulfur, a key ingredient in fertilizer, costs more than $1100/ metric ton. The previous 10-year avg: $170. You may have also heard this week that diesel prices hit a new record. Rabobank predicts food inflation in the States to rise another 3 to 5% in 2027. Read on here

npr.org

What expensive sulfur means for your dinner table

Oil supplies are falling, sulfur prices are threatening food costs, and we measure Lego against Hollywood

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Hopefully OpenAI also threw in a 1-topping pizza for the them

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

[NEW] US drivers paid an additional $66B in gas since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began. Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel. Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...

A line chart shows that, since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began, year-over-year change in spending per gas station has gone up 24%, while gallons bought have gone down 3.5%. Published from Fuel Trends by Upside.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Every 1% rise in gas prices → 0.51% fewer grocery visits, 0.59% less grocery revenue. Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇 www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Behavior change continues both inside the convenience store and at the pump. Just because gas prices are inelastic doesn't mean consumers don't change their habits. www.upside.com/business/ret...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

My latest research is now live in Upside's new report about the "Loyalty Plateau". It turns out most loyalty members belong to MANY other loyalty programs, spreading out their spend and reducing the program's impact for retailers. www.upside.com/reports/esca...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

But on the other, other hand... theshelbyreport.com/2026/05/08/u...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Taxi vs. Uber/Lyft drivers respond very differently to high gas prices. Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Despite the spike in gas prices, U.S. households still aren't driving that much less. I had a great conversation with the FT about the many other ways consumers are shifting behavior due to fuel prices, even as miles driven have gone up since February. www.ft.com/content/9726...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

What a gem from @patcohen.bsky.social & @bencasselman.bsky.social. By my math, 1 fruitcake is roughly equivalent to 5 Scaramuccis. This will be on the test.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Quick math: 20–12 = 8. That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on. www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...

linkedin.com

500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

It's all retailers, not just gas stations, affected by rising gas prices. When gas prices increase, customers make up 80-100% of that lost money by cutting back in non-fuel discretionary spending. www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...

cspdailynews.com

How global events are shaping U.S. fuel prices: Insights from Dr. Thomas Weinandy

Upside’s principal research economist discusses oil market disruptions, consumer behavior at the pump and inside c-stores

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

It's official: a regular gallon of gasoline in the US now costs over $4. My recent video explaining how this is going to affect consumer behavior is ways you might now expect is now featured by LinkedIn News. www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...

linkedin.com

Gas prices top $4 in US for first time since 2022 | LinkedIn

According to AAA, the average gallon now costs $4.018, its highest level since the first months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy

Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

BREAKING: $4 is back. The national average has just reached $4/gal according to GasBuddy, the highest since August 8, 2022. The rise is now the largest monthly increase GasBuddy has ever recorded: $1.059/gal for gasoline, $1.701/gal for diesel.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it. Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

I'm honored to have been featured in a LinkedIn News roundup debunking the claim that gas stations are benefiting from surging gas prices. (Spoiler: they hate it as much as drivers.) www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...

linkedin.com

Gas prices near $4 a gallon and consumers feel strain | LinkedIn

Meanwhile, diesel just surged past $5 for just the second time ever, and prolonged price shocks could be devastating to trucking, farming and transportation.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Higher gas prices are painful, but that does not automatically mean stations are gouging. Right now, the better explanation is higher crude and wholesale costs from the Iran-related supply shock, not fatter retail margins.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Getting lots of questions on how the Middle East conflict is impacting U.S. gas prices. 1st of n videos: Why not just produce more oil? ~20% of global supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—and it’s effectively closed. That ties OPEC’s hands. The U.S.? Not that simple.

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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy

David J. Bier @davidjbier.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

The sophisticated empirical arguments against immigration are disproven, but all the objections that matter most politically are just complete nonsense that you don't need any complex analysis to reject...🧵

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Reposted by Thomas Weinandy

Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

The spike in US #gasprices has been extremely close to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine spike. Through 12 days, the national average in 2022 rose ~75c/gal, while this time in 2026, prices are up an average ~70c/gal over the same time frame.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

I surveyed 1,700+ consumers and 79% changed their shopping behavior in some way because of tariffs. The recent SCOTUS ruling won't change that anytime soon. www.supermarketnews.com/grocery-tren...

supermarketnews.com

Tariffs might change, but shoppers won’t

Retailers need to make the bargains easier to find

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

What will it take for gas prices to fall? Most ideas floating around right now are band-aids. The only sustainable solution is reopening tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, retail gas prices will take time to adjust. www.texastribune.org/2026/03/11/t...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

For all of the attention on regular gas prices right now, not enough people are tracking movement in diesel. Distillate sales were in decline before the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and now rising prices add additional headwinds to the commercial transportation sector. www.upside.com/business/ret...

upside.com

Tracking retail fuel trends: February 2026 | Upside

Fuel prices jumped up in February, but seasonal trends — not just geopolitical conflict — were behind the movement. Get a closer look at our monthly recap of the industry here.

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Consumers love loyalty-program value—so much that they join and use multiple programs in every category. It’s not just grocery: today’s uncommitted shopper is a store-hopper, spreading loyalty across many retailers. money.usnews.com/money/person...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Kudos to the @budgetlab.bsky.social for breaking down where we stand following today's partial repeal of tariffs. It's clear, concise & current budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Were you among the 230 million Americans affected by Winter Storm Fern? My latest blog shows which states saw a 24% decline in #fuel during the cold snap 🥶 www.upside.com/business/ret...

Stations in the path of Winter Storm Fern sold far fewer gallons
Average change in gallons sold per station, week of 1/19/26 to 1/26/26 Upside

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David J. Bier @davidjbier.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

For decades, nativists have sold America this narrative that immigrant welfare is behind our deficits and debt. This figure shows how absurd that is. This is all government expenditures, federal, state, and local, for the last 3 decades. Immigrants are not to blame:

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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Interesting paper: -75% of identical Uber & Lyft trips in NYC have base prices with differences of at least $1. Neither app is consistently cheaper/more expensive, so it should make sense to comparison shop -Only 16% of users do vs. 97% who "should" according to model www.nber.org/202602/diges...

nber.org

Do Rideshare Users Comparison Shop?

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Thomas Weinandy @tomweinandy.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

New survey of business economists is out today from @nabe-econ.bsky.social & median recession odds have dipped to 11-25%. There are clear cracks in consumer spending & the labor market, but this survey reinforces how the economy remains resilient amid current challenges. #econsky

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