iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 05/10/2026

📊 #pharma 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's semaglutide loses US exclusivity in December 2031. 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's Mounjaro holds until June 2039. 7.5 years apart, on the two molecules the whole obesity market runs on. midgardfinance.com/obesity/ $NOVO $LLY

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 05/10/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #retatrutide took off 18.8% in type 2 diabetes, the most of six drugs. 🇩🇪 Boehringer's #survodutide, from 🇩🇰 $ZEAL: 9.8%, and 26% stopped for side effects. All randomised patients. All of EASD in one post: midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/10/04/easd-2026-roundup/

Horizontal bar chart titled "Weight loss with type 2 diabetes": weight lost by adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes on the top dose of six drugs, each beside its own trial's placebo, counting all randomised patients. Retatrutide 12 mg (TRIUMPH-2, 80 weeks): 18.8% against 5.1% on placebo. Tirzepatide 15 mg (SURMOUNT-2, 72 weeks): 14.7% against 3.2% on placebo. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (REDEFINE 2, 68 weeks): 13.7% against 3.4% on placebo. Semaglutide 7.2 mg (STEP UP T2D, 72 weeks): 13.2% against 3.9% on placebo. Survodutide 6.0 mg (SYNCHRONIZE-2, 76 weeks): 9.8% against 3.9% on placebo. Orforglipron 36 mg (ATTAIN-2, 72 weeks): 9.6% against 2.5% on placebo. Retatrutide and survodutide, the two trials read out at the EASD congress, are drawn in purple and the other four in grey. These are separate trials of 68 to 80 weeks, not a head-to-head comparison.

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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

So far, A.I.'s losers are routine office jobs like data entry keyers and customer service reps. Its winners are data scientists and the trades building the data centers like construction laborers and electricians. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...

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NEJM.org @nejm.org · 01/10/2026

In a phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes, the investigational glucagon receptor–GLP-1 receptor dual agonist survodutide led to significant weight reduction. Full SYNCHRONIZE-2 trial results: nej.md/4yrHEMu #EASD2026

A bar chart showing the percent change in body weight from baseline to week 76, derived from an analysis-of-covariance model, for the treatment-regimen estimand, which incorporates the effects of any early discontinuation of survodutide or placebo, the use of protocol-prohibited obesity medications, and the effects of a prolonged dose-escalation period.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

💉 #pharma #EASD2026 Weight loss in type 2 diabetes, top doses, all randomised: 🇺🇸 $LLY retatrutide -18.8%, tirzepatide -14.7%; 🇩🇰 $NOVO CagriSema -13.7%, semaglutide 7.2 mg -13.2%; oral orforglipron -9.6%. Separate trials, 68-80 wk. No EloraTZP: on-drug data only. midgardfinance.com/diabetes/

Horizontal bar chart titled "Weight loss with type 2 diabetes". For each obesity drug's dedicated trial in adults with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes, the top dose (purple) beside that trial's placebo (grey), counting all randomised patients including those who stopped. Retatrutide 12 mg, TRIUMPH-2, 80 weeks: 18.8% vs placebo 5.1%. Tirzepatide 15 mg, SURMOUNT-2, 72 weeks: 14.7% vs 3.2%. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg, REDEFINE 2, 68 weeks: 13.7% vs 3.4%. Semaglutide 7.2 mg, STEP UP T2D, 72 weeks: 13.2% vs 3.9%. Semaglutide 2.4 mg, same trial: 10.4% vs 3.9%. Orforglipron 36 mg, ATTAIN-2, 72 weeks: 9.6% vs 2.5%.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/09/2026

💉 #pharma #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY adds amylin to tirzepatide in obesity with type 2 diabetes: -23.3% weight and -2.9 points of HbA1c at 48 weeks, vs -14.8% and -2.4 on tirzepatide alone. Stopped treatment: 11-27% on the combos, 17% on placebo, 3% on tirzepatide alone.

Two bar charts side by side titled "Amylin on top of tirzepatide, week 48", from Lilly's phase 2b trial in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. Six bars in each: placebo, tirzepatide 15 mg alone, and four combinations of eloralintide with tirzepatide. Left, weight loss: placebo 3.0%, tirzepatide 15 mg 14.8%, eloralintide 3 mg with tirzepatide 5 mg 13.2%, 6 with 5 19.4%, 6 with 10 19.9%, 9 with 15 23.3%. Right, HbA1c fall in percentage points: placebo 0.3, tirzepatide 2.4, then 2.2, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.9 for the combinations. All efficacy estimand.

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The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology @thelancetendo.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

New—Petrelintide, a human amylin analogue for the treatment of obesity (ZUPREME 1): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial thelancet.com/journals/lan... #obesity #EASD2026 #MedSky #EndoSky

(A) Estimated mean change in bodyweight by treatment week (efficacy estimand). (B) Least squares mean change in bodyweight from baseline to week 42 (efficacy estimand). (C) Observed mean change in bodyweight by treatment week (treatment policy estimand). (D) Least squares mean change in bodyweight (%) from baseline to week 42 (treatment policy estimand). *p<0·0001 for difference versus placebo. †Treatment policy estimates at week 42.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/09/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇺🇸 Lilly's #retatrutide 12 mg, 80 weeks, two Phase 3 trials published this week: Without diabetes (TRIUMPH-1, NEJM): -28.3% With type 2 diabetes (TRIUMPH-2, Lancet): -20.8% Same drug, same dose. Type 2 diabetes costs about a quarter of the weight loss. $LLY

Line chart of average weight change over 80 weeks on retatrutide 12 mg in two phase 3 trials published on 29 September 2026. The line that falls further is TRIUMPH-1 (New England Journal of Medicine), adults with obesity and no diabetes; the shallower line is TRIUMPH-2 (The Lancet), adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Both lines fall steeply for the first 36 weeks and flatten after week 52. The lines show the published average of patients on treatment, ending at -27.6 and -21.3 per cent at week 80. The two dots to the right are each trial's estimate for patients who stayed on the drug: -28.3 per cent without diabetes and -20.8 per cent with type 2 diabetes, a gap of 7.5 points. These are separate trials with different participants, so the gap is not a randomised comparison, although the drug, dose, duration and method are the same.

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NEJM.org @nejm.org · 29/09/2026

In the phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 trial involving patients with obesity, retatrutide, a triple hormone receptor agonist, resulted in substantial weight reduction and a decrease in knee osteoarthritis pain and obstructive sleep apnea events. Full trial results: nej.md/4ycgSHz

A graph from an Original Article published in the New England Journal of Medicine article titled "Retatrutide, a Triple Hormone Receptor Agonist, for Treatment of Obesity." The graph shows effect of retatrutide on body weight. The trial name, TRIUMPH-1, is in parentheses after the title. The NEJM identity sits at the bottom.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 29/09/2026

📊 #obesity 🇺🇸🇩🇰 Retatrutide 12 mg: 63% of patients lost a fifth of their body weight. Tirzepatide 15 mg: 63%. Semaglutide 2.4mg: 35%. Orforglipron: 20%. The average hides that. $LLY $NOVO

Grouped bar chart showing how many patients in four obesity trials reached each weight-loss level: 5, 10, 15 and 20 per cent or more of body weight. One coloured bar per drug in each group. Retatrutide 12 mg at 48 weeks, phase 2: 100 per cent reached 5 per cent, 93 per cent reached 10 per cent, 83 per cent reached 15 per cent, 63 per cent reached 20 per cent; Tirzepatide 15 mg at 72 weeks, phase 3: 96 per cent reached 5 per cent, 90 per cent reached 10 per cent, 78 per cent reached 15 per cent, 63 per cent reached 20 per cent; Semaglutide 2.4 mg at 68 weeks, phase 3: 92 per cent reached 5 per cent, 75 per cent reached 10 per cent, 55 per cent reached 15 per cent, 35 per cent reached 20 per cent; Orforglipron 36 mg at 72 weeks, phase 3: 77 per cent reached 5 per cent, 60 per cent reached 10 per cent, 40 per cent reached 15 per cent, 20 per cent reached 20 per cent. Every figure is the adherent-population estimand, which Lilly and Amgen call the efficacy estimand and Novo Nordisk the trial-product estimand, so all four bars answer the same question; the treatment-policy figures, which include patients who stopped, are lower and are not mixed in. Trial lengths differ, from 48 to 72 weeks, so this is not a controlled comparison. Retatrutide's bar is its PHASE 2 trial: its phase 3, TRIUMPH-1, reports only the 25, 30 and 35 per cent thresholds and cannot fill this ladder. The other three are phase 3. CagriSema is absent because no adherent-estimand ladder exists for it in this data, and MariTide because its 420 mg arm appears three times with three different results.

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Koyfin @koyfin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

In 2005, Seth Klarman wrote a short paper about the painful decision to hold cash. Great read.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 27/09/2026

💊 #pharma #MCP Our obesity and incretin trial data is now an MCP server. Ask Claude Code, get estimand-tagged answers with a citation. Free. Why it matters: the same trial reports two weight-loss numbers, up to 3.6pp apart. Twelve do. mcp.midgardfinance.com $LLY 🇺🇸 $NOVO 🇩🇰

Grouped bar chart of twelve obesity drugs, each with two bars for the same trial. The blue bar is the on-treatment (efficacy) estimand, the purple the treatment-policy estimand, both as percentage of body weight lost. Retatrutide is deepest at 28.3 against 25.0, then CagriSema 22.7 against 20.4, Zepbound 22.5 against 20.9, Wegovy HD 20.7 against 18.7, Ribupatide 19.2 against 17.7, Mazdutide 18.6 against 16.7, Bofanglutide 17.3 against 16.7, Wegovy 16.9 against 14.9, Survodutide 16.6 against 13.0, Wegovy pill 16.6 against 13.6, Ecnoglutide 14.1 against 13.2 and Foundayo 12.4 against 11.2. The on-treatment figure is higher in every case. Each pair is the top dose of that drug in the trial named, and trial durations differ, from 30 to 80 weeks, so the comparison that matters is within each pair rather than between drugs.

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CNBC @cnbc.com · 26/09/2026

As Novo works to turn itself around, some analysts say Lilly has advantages that could help it maintain its position at the top of the obesity drug market.

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Novo is betting on its next chapter as Eli Lilly gains more ground in GLP-1s

As Novo works to turn itself around, some analysts say Lilly has advantages that could help it maintain its position at the top of the obesity drug market.

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Nature @nature.com · 25/09/2026

Understanding why some people see no benefits from potent anti-obesity medications could lead to new therapies and personalized weight-loss regimens go.nature.com/3TnTlEE

go.nature.com

GLP-1 drugs fail to help some people lose weight — scientists are on a quest for answers

Understanding why some people see no benefits from potent anti-obesity medications could lead to new therapies and personalized weight-loss regimens.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 26/09/2026

💉 #diabetes 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's #Onswik won FDA approval on Wednesday, the second once-weekly insulin in the US after 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's Awiqli in March. It lands in the flat half of Novo: insulin has sat near EUR 1.7bn a quarter since 2020, while the incretins beside it went 5.5x. $LLY $NOVO

Line chart of Novo Nordisk's revenue per quarter in euro billions, from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2026, with two series. The incretin line, in violet, starts at about 1.5 billion, crosses the insulin line during 2021, climbs steeply through 2022 and 2023 to about 6.5 billion, peaks near 8.5 billion at the end of 2024, and ends at 8.0 billion. The insulin line, in light blue, starts at about 1.8 billion and stays between roughly 1.5 and 2.1 billion for the whole six years, ending at 1.7 billion, slightly below where it began. The two lines end far apart, with the incretins about four and a half times the insulin franchise. The title reads: Lilly's weekly insulin lands in Novo's flat half.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

WSJ: The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in US history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge US infrastructure projects — such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.” (via Jefferies)

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 24/09/2026

‘AI has gotten cheaper more quickly than any other transformative technology in history.’ epoch.ai/publications...

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 22/09/2026

💉 #obesity 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's #CagriSema beat 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in REIMAGINE 5: 12.4% against 9.1% weight loss at 60 weeks in type 2 diabetes. At 1.0/1.0 mg, against tirzepatide's lowest 5 mg. The three head-to-heads fought at top dose all went to Lilly. $NOVO $LLY

Horizontal bar chart of the four head-to-head trials that put a Novo Nordisk incretin against an Eli Lilly one, oldest readout at the top, weight loss at the primary endpoint on a scale from zero to about 34 per cent. Each trial has two bars, the Novo arm in blue above the Lilly arm in red, and each bar is labelled with the drug, its dose and its result. Each row also says whether the arms were at their top dose. SURMOUNT-5, obesity, 72 weeks, 2025, won by Lilly, both at top dose in 2025: semaglutide 2.4 mg 13.7 per cent against tirzepatide 15 mg 20.2 per cent. REDEFINE 4, obesity, 84 weeks, February 2026, won by Lilly, both at top dose: CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg 23.0 per cent against tirzepatide 15 mg 25.5 per cent. ACHIEVE-3, type 2 diabetes, 52 weeks, March 2026, won by Lilly, both at top dose: oral semaglutide 14 mg 5.3 per cent against orforglipron 36 mg 8.2 per cent. REIMAGINE 5, type 2 diabetes, 60 weeks, September 2026, won by Novo, neither at top dose: CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg 12.4 per cent against tirzepatide 5 mg 9.1 per cent, the only row where the blue bar is longer than the red one.

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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 16/09/2026

How fast is the world building up solar power? The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organization with 172 countries and the European Union.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 16/09/2026

🏭 #pharma Novo Nordisk's capex has rolled over: DKK84.1bn on a trailing twelve months, down from DKK90.1bn. Buybacks turned at the same time, DKK2.8bn to DKK5.9bn. Dividends flat at DKK52.0bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ 🇩🇰 $NOVO

Line chart on a dark background titled Novo Nordisk capital allocation, trailing twelve months. Three lines in DKK billion, each a rolling four-quarter sum, running from 2021Q2 to 2026Q2, with only the final point marked and labelled at the right-hand edge.

Capex, in blue, is the top line. It falls to DKK22.4bn early in the series, climbs to a peak of DKK90.1bn at 2025Q4, and has eased for 2 quarters since to DKK84.1bn.

Dividends, in green, sit in the middle and are flat at the end: DKK52.0bn, having been near DKK52.1bn for the last four quarters.

Buybacks, in purple, are the bottom line at the end. They peak at DKK29.9bn at 2023Q4, fall to DKK2.8bn at 2025Q4, and have recovered to DKK5.9bn. Capex crosses above buybacks during 2023 and the two have not crossed back.

A trailing twelve-month basis is used because Novo pays dividends in one or two lumps a year, so a quarterly line would swing between zero and a spike. Footer text reads midgardfinance.com.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 15/09/2026

📊 #software #stocks 🇺🇸 Adobe $ADBE trades at 10.6x free cash flow, down from 59x in 2020. In June it hit 7.8x, below its 2011 low of 10.1x. Cash per share is up 6x since 2016. midgardfinance.com/companies/ADBE/

Line chart of Adobe's share price divided by its trailing twelve-month free cash flow per diluted share, every trading day from July 2010 to today, the free cash flow stepping on the day each quarterly or annual report was filed. It stood at 10.1x in August 2011, peaked at 59x in September 2020, and after a long decline reached a low of 7.8x in June 2026, the lowest on the chart. Today, at a share price of 263 dollars against free cash flow for the twelve months to May 2026, it is 10.6x, marked in blue with a dashed line across the chart. Free cash flow per share is 6.3 times its fiscal 2016 level. Subtracting stock-based compensation, today's multiple is 13.2x.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026

Oracle earnings 🍿 my takeaways: Oracle NOPAT for the quarter is around 6.2bn with CapEx at 28.5bn leading to negative FCF of just ~22bn in a single quarter. CapEx increased to 28.5bn from 8.5bn a year ago.

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Koyfin @koyfin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The average price of electricity per Kilowatt-hour in the United States.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

From the November 2022 launch of ChatGPT through May 2025, job postings for software developers fell by 57%. Since that trough, postings have increased by 22% even in the face of agentic coding adoption. That is a hopeful sign for other potentially AI-disrupted workers.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

RAMP: “.. the latest threat to the AI trade. AI companies' revenues are heavily dependent on a small set of customers. 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, and it's not getting better.” @ramp.com ramp.com/data/ai-index

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

MIZUHO DESK: “.. Momentum baskets have now completely round-tripped and broken below their July lows, taking out the levels seen during the Situational Awareness unwind. .. The move has become increasingly self-fulfilling as systematic strategies de-risk, forcing additional selling into weakness.”

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 31/08/2026

💉 #obesity Roche's #enicepatide lost 22.7% of body weight, edging #Zepbound's 22.5%, for a higher dropout: 7.0% against 6.2%. Its amylin #petrelintide trades half the weight loss for a 4.5% dropout. midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/08/16/obesity-challengers-second-wave-q2-2026/ 🇨🇭 $RO 🇩🇰 $ZEAL

Scatter chart of 17 obesity drugs, weight lost against the share of participants who stopped treatment for adverse events. The horizontal axis is discontinuation, the vertical axis is percentage weight lost; each dot is one asset at its top dose. The 4 challengers are picked out in colour and named with their ticker, the rest of the field is grey. Retatrutide 28.3 per cent weight loss on 11.3 per cent discontinuation; CagriSema 22.7 per cent weight loss on 5.9 per cent discontinuation; Enicepatide 22.7 per cent weight loss on 7.0 per cent discontinuation; Zepbound 22.5 per cent weight loss on 6.2 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy HD 20.7 per cent weight loss on 5.4 per cent discontinuation; Eloralintide 20.1 per cent weight loss on 7.4 per cent discontinuation; UBT251 18.7 per cent weight loss on 4.0 per cent discontinuation; Mazdutide 18.6 per cent weight loss on 2.9 per cent discontinuation; Bofanglutide 17.3 per cent weight loss on 9.4 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy 16.9 per cent weight loss on 7.0 per cent discontinuation; Survodutide 16.6 per cent weight loss on 24.8 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy pill 16.6 per cent weight loss on 6.9 per cent discontinuation; Foundayo 12.4 per cent weight loss on 8.0 per cent discontinuation; Aleniglipron 12.1 per cent weight loss on 10.4 per cent discontinuation; Cagrilintide 11.8 per cent weight loss on 4.0 per cent discontinuation; Elecoglipron 11.8 per cent weight loss on 4.1 per cent discontinuation; Petrelintide 10.7 per cent weight loss on 4.5 per cent discontinuation. These are separate trials at different doses and durations, not head-to-head comparisons. MariTide, Berobenatide, Zenagamtide, VK2735, Ecnoglutide are left off the chart because their discontinuation rates are not dose-comparable with the rest.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 28/08/2026

💉 #obesity #Wegovy, #Zepbound and 4 more are being tested on heart and kidney outcomes in 79,868 patients. Only 28% sit in trials that have reported. The rest lands between 2027 and 2031. midgardfinance.com/obesity/ 🇩🇰 $NOVO 🇺🇸 $LLY $AMGN #ESCCongress

Horizontal bar chart of 10 Phase 3 trials testing obesity and diabetes drugs on heart and kidney outcomes, one bar per trial, ordered by when the trial reports. Bar length is the number of patients randomised. Grey bars are the 4 trials that have already read out, blue the 6 still running, and each bar is labelled with its year at the right-hand end. Semaglutide STEP-HFpEF, 529 patients, read out 2023; Semaglutide SELECT, 17,604 patients, read out 2023; Semaglutide FLOW, 3,533 patients, read out 2024; Tirzepatide heart failure, 731 patients, read out 2024; CagriSema REDEFINE 3, 7,101 patients, expected 2027; Tirzepatide SURMOUNT-MMO, 15,374 patients, expected 2027; MariTide MARITIME-CV, 12,800 patients, expected 2028; MariTide MARITIME-HF, 5,056 patients, expected 2028; Retatrutide cardiovascular, 10,000 patients, expected 2029; Orforglipron cardiovascular, 7,140 patients, expected 2031. In total 79,868 patients have been randomised, of whom 22,397, 28 per cent, are in trials that have reported. The largest single trial is Semaglutide SELECT at 17,604. Trials with no registry acronym are labelled by the endpoint they measure instead.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 24/08/2026

🇺🇸 The median S&P 500 CEO has held the job 5.1 years. Jensen Huang has run Nvidia for 34, since 1993. Only 21 of 461 have lasted twenty. Buffett dwarfed them all: 60 years at Berkshire, until January. midgardfinance.com/ceo-changes/ $NVDA $BRK.B #investing

Histogram of how long the sitting chief executive has been in post at each of 461 S&P 500 companies. The horizontal axis is years in the job in one-year bins from 0 to 40; the vertical axis counts companies. The distribution is heavily weighted to the first decade, with a dashed line at the median of 5.1 years, and thins to a long tail: 21 chief executives have been in the job twenty years or more. The longest is CoStar at 39.6 years, since 1987; the chart labels Nvidia at 34 years instead, as the recognisable one. Others past twenty include Aflac, Camden, Axon Enterprise Inc., Capital One, Gallagher, Monolithic Power. 19 companies are excluded, either because the filing record cannot show when the tenure began or because its last sighting is too old to treat the person as still in post. Companies are named, not people.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 21/08/2026

🇺🇸 Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine cleared Phase 3 in melanoma this week, and there is no pathogen anywhere in it. It teaches T cells to recognise up to 34 mutations found only in that patient's own tumour. One batch treats one person. $MRNA $MRK

Flow diagram in six numbered boxes, three across and two down, each with a small line icon, titled "Teaching T cells a target", explaining how an individualised neoantigen cancer therapy works inside the body. One, Inject, syringe icon: an mRNA shot coding for up to 34 mutations from that tumour. Two, Read, cell icon: immune cells take it up and make those mutant proteins. Three, Display, flag icon: in a lymph node they show fragments on their surface, like flags. Four, Train, dividing-cells icon: nothing taught T cells to ignore these flags, so those that fit multiply. Five, Hunt, target icon: only the tumour carries the mutations, so it alone keeps the flag flying. Six, Unblock, open-padlock icon: Keytruda stops the tumour switching those T cells off.

Flow diagram in four numbered boxes, two across and two down, each with a small line icon, titled "One patient, one vaccine", explaining how an individualised neoantigen cancer therapy is manufactured. One, Resect, DNA helix icon: the tumour comes out and is sequenced against the patient's own healthy DNA. Two, Select, funnel icon: up to 34 mutations found only in that tumour, matched to the patient's immune type. Three, Build, vial icon: all 34 encoded on one mRNA strand, wrapped in a nanoparticle, taking six to eight weeks. Four, Dose, calendar icon with nine dots: one batch, one patient, nobody else can use it, and nine doses follow, one every three weeks.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 20/08/2026

Free cash flow, TTM to Q2 2026. Building AI capacity: $ORCL -$24bn · $AMZN -$12bn · TSMC $33bn $META $41bn · $GOOGL $53bn · $MSFT $67bn Not building: $TSLA $6bn · $NVDA $119bn · $AAPL $137bn Operating cash flow rose at all nine. Capex took it.

Eight small charts, one per company, each showing operating cash flow and capital spending in billions of dollars from 2006 to the twelve months ending Q2 2026, on a shared scale, with the gap between the two lines shaded to show free cash flow. The five building AI data centres are Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle: at all five the cash flow rises while the spending rises faster, so the shaded gap narrows sharply after 2023, and at Amazon and Oracle the spending line has crossed above the cash flow line and the shading has gone, leaving minus 12 and minus 24 billion dollars. Microsoft ends at 67 billion, Alphabet 53, Meta 41. Apple, Nvidia and Tesla are not building: their spending stays flat and low, and the shaded gap keeps widening, to 137, 119 and 6 billion.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 18/08/2026

‘Over a rolling six-month stretch, the number of stocks trading with “negative beta” to the S&P 500 recently touched the highest level going back to 1990, according to an analysis from Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel.‘ www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nu...

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Koyfin @koyfin.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Data from the SEC shows that the proceeds from US IPOs reached $115.7 billion in Q2 2026. Since the turn of the century, only Q1 2021 surpasses it, recording a staggering $132.9 billion. Data includes SPACs.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 18/08/2026

"Apple’s premium valuation is predicated on services, and the App Store is really the crown jewel of that. We think the market is going to reprice the durability of the services business take rate [in the wake of regulatory changes]." www.ft.com/content/e553...

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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

"The top 10% of companies using OpenAI’s products use 8.3x more tokens than the typical firm." -Exponential View

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 18/08/2026

💊 14 Phase 3 obesity trials have not reached their primary endpoint, and 9 are not about weight at all. The largest enrols 15,374. Nothing reports before 2027; the last lands in 2031. midgardfinance.com/obesity/pipeline/ 🇩🇰 $NOVO 🇺🇸 $LLY #obesity

Horizontal bar chart of 14 Phase 3 obesity and cardiometabolic trials whose primary endpoint completes in 2026 or later, one row per trial, ordered by start date. Each bar runs from the day the trial started to the day its primary endpoint completes, against a time axis from 2021 to 2032, with a dashed line at today. MariTide / obesity 2025 to 2027; MariTide / t2d 2025 to 2027; CagriSema / cv 2023 to 2027; Tirzepatide / cv 2022 to 2027; Eloralintide / t2d 2025 to 2028; Eloralintide / obesity 2026 to 2028; Eloralintide / osa 2026 to 2028; MariTide / cv 2025 to 2028; MariTide / hfpef 2025 to 2028; Retatrutide / cv 2024 to 2029; Semaglutide / mash 2021 to 2029; Tirzepatide / mash 2025 to 2030; Orforglipron / cv 2025 to 2031; Survodutide / mash 2024 to 2031. 0 have already passed their endpoint and are shown in grey; the other 14 are still running. The longest is Semaglutide / mash at 8 years.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 16/08/2026

🇺🇸 Margin debt is 4.72% of GDP. An all-time record 📈 Dot-com 3.00%, 2007 2.86%. Against the market value it is actually borrowed against: 2.16%, below 2007's 2.23%. Same debt. Two denominators. Two headlines. midgardfinance.com/leverage/

Two lines from 1997 to 2026. Margin debt as a share of GDP climbs to 4.72 per cent, above its dot-com and 2007 peaks. Margin debt as a share of US equity market value runs lower and ends at 2.16 per cent, below its 2007 reading of 2.23 and well below its 2008 high.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 15/08/2026

#SituationalAwareness 🇺🇸 The last 13F before the blow-up. 31 Mar: 62% of reported value sat in puts on the AI leaders. 30 Jun: the puts were gone and 55% of the book was $SNDK and $MU. July: down 67%, the book unwound, Citadel bought part of it. midgardfinance.com/companies/MU/

Two ranked bar charts of one hedge fund's reported 13F holdings, 31 March 2026 on the left and 30 June 2026 on the right, coloured by instrument. In March the largest positions are puts, on a semiconductor ETF and on Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom. In June the book is stock, led by Sandisk at 28% and Micron at 28%. A 13F shows only options a manager owns, and a put can hedge a holding as easily as bet against one. The fund lost 67% in July 2026 and Citadel bought part of the book.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 13/08/2026

🇩🇰 $PNDORA Q2 2026 💍 Guidance raised. EBIT margin 20.3% - but 250bp of that was a one-off tariff refund. Silver: $38/oz paid, not yet booked Buybacks: zero ROIC: 39%, was 44% EMEA and North America: both negative #Pandora #Silver #TariffRefund

Line chart of the silver price Pandora pays against the silver price reaching its cost of sales, US dollars per ounce, quarterly from Q3 2024 to Q2 2027. The price paid climbs gently from 25 to 34 dollars, then jumps to 70 in Q3 2026 and holds at 69. The cost-of-sales line begins at 32 dollars in Q2 2026 and stays at 32 and 33 through Q4 2026 before climbing to 44 in Q1 2027 and 69 in Q2 2027. The area between the two lines is shaded and labelled: at its widest, in Q3 2026, 38 dollars an ounce has been paid but not yet booked. Quarters from Q3 2026 onward are shaded as hedged rather than realised.

Column chart of Pandora's share buyback spend per quarter in Danish kroner millions, from Q1 2018 to Q2 2026. The series opens at 233m and then mostly sits between 500 and 1,600m, peaking at 2,230m in Q4 2021 and 1,565m in Q3 2025. Two gaps interrupt the series: four quarters at zero from Q2 2020 to Q1 2021, and the current stop, with 34m in Q1 2026 and nothing at all in Q2 2026.

Line chart of Pandora's trailing twelve month return on invested capital, percent, one reading per quarter from Q1 2019 to Q2 2026. It starts at 35 percent, falls to a low of 16 percent in Q2 2020, recovers through 2021 to a peak of 59 percent in Q4 2021, then settles in a band between 41 and 49 percent for four years. The last five quarters are highlighted and step down from 45 percent to 44, 43, 41 and 39, holding at 39 percent in Q2 2026, the lowest since 2021.

Line chart of Pandora's like-for-like growth by region, percent, quarterly from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026, four lines. EMEA runs from 7 percent up to 16 in early 2024 and then falls steadily to minus 2 percent in the last two quarters. North America rises from minus 6 to 11 percent in Q1 2025 and then falls to minus 2 and minus 1. Latin America swings between minus 8 and 18, ending at its highest reading of 18 percent. Asia-Pacific is negative for most of the period, as low as minus 10, then turns up to 12 and 10 percent in the last two quarters. Each line is labelled with its share of Q2 2026 revenue: EMEA 47 percent, North America 37, Asia-Pacific 9, Latin America 7.

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European Parliament @europarl.europa.eu · 12/08/2026

They built it, you bear the burden. That doesn’t fly. Social media platforms are addictive by design, harming mental health among youth. On the International Youth Day, discover how Parliament wants to create a safer online environment for children and young people, in the next thread 🧵1/2

Infographic by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). Text reads: "Youth mental ill-health costs around €177 billion per year in the EU. This impacts on healthcare, social protection and labour productivity." An illustration shows a young person sitting with their knees drawn to their chest, looking downward. A note clarifies that in 2024, youth mental ill-health was estimated to cost the EU-27 around €177 billion. Source: EPRS, July 2026.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 09/08/2026

🇺🇸 $LLY and 🇩🇰 $NOVO reported Q2 2026 a day apart and the market split them. Lilly leads incretins on both continents: 61% of the US, 55% international. Novo won the pill. Oral #Wegovy out-scripts #Foundayo about 12 to 1. midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/08/08/glp1-race-splits-q2-2026/ #pharma #NVO

midgardfinance.com

The GLP-1 Race Splits in Two: Novo and Lilly After Q2 2026

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly reported Q2 2026 the same week to opposite reactions. On Lilly's own measures it leads incretins in both regions, though Novo claims the larger share by volume abroad - and ...

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 08/08/2026

🇩🇰 $NOVO sales shrinking in the US and growing everywhere else. Trailing 12-month sales: #Ozempic: DKK 82bn in the US, down from a 94bn peak 📉 #Wegovy injectable: 45bn, down from 53bn 📉 Outside the US both are at record highs, 40bn and 35bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma $NVO

Two line charts side by side on a dark background, titled "Novo Nordisk GLP-1 and obesity, trailing twelve months". The left panel is the US, the right panel is Ex-US. The vertical axis, shared by both, is trailing twelve-month sales in billions of Danish kroner, and each panel runs from 2021 to mid 2026.

Six lines per panel, each labelled at its right-hand end: Ozempic, Wegovy injectable, Wegovy pill, the oral diabetes tablet Rybelsus, Saxenda and Victoza.

The US panel is where the two big lines turn. Ozempic rises from about 20 billion kroner in 2021 to a peak of about 94 billion in the middle of 2025, then falls to about 82. Wegovy injectable peaks at about 53 billion in the same quarter and falls to about 45. Rybelsus drifts down from about 12 billion to 8. Wegovy pill, launched in January 2026, lifts off the axis at the very end.

The Ex-US panel shows the opposite. Both large lines are at their highest points on the chart at the right-hand edge and still rising, Ozempic at about 40 billion kroner and Wegovy injectable at about 35 billion. Rybelsus sits at about 12 billion.

Read together, the same two products are declining in the US and setting records everywhere else. There is no World panel because it would only restate the sum of these two.

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midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 06/08/2026

Both raised 2026 guidance within a day of each other. Both called it a raise. 🇩🇰 $NOVO now guides to 0% to -6%. 🇺🇸 $LLY now guides to +30% to +33%. One of them is raising its way to a smaller year. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma $NVO

Bar chart on a dark background titled "2026 guidance, after both companies raised it". The vertical axis is full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance, running from minus 20 percent to plus 40 percent, with a bright line at zero.

Five floating range bars in two groups, each bar spanning the low and high end of a guidance range, shaded palest for the oldest vintage.

Novo Nordisk, in light blue, sits entirely below or at the zero line. Guidance of 3 February ran from minus 13 to minus 5 percent. Guidance of 6 May ran from minus 12 to minus 4. The current guidance, issued 4 August, runs from minus 6 to zero.

Eli Lilly, in violet, sits far above. Its prior guidance converts to roughly plus 26 to plus 30 percent, and its updated guidance to plus 30 to plus 33 percent.

Both companies moved their ranges upward, and both described it as a raise. The two sets of bars do not come close to overlapping: the top of Novo's range is about thirty points below the bottom of Lilly's.

The two figures are not measured the same way, and the chart says so underneath. Novo's is adjusted sales growth at constant exchange rates, excluding a one-off rebate reversal. Lilly's is reported revenue growth in dollars, converted from its dollar guidance of 85 to 87 billion against 2025 revenue of 65.2 billion.

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