iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 21h

📊 #tech #stocks 🇪🇺 European tech is expected to grow revenue about as fast as 🇺🇸 US tech next year, 11% vs 12% for the typical company, yet it trades at 19x forward earnings instead of 23x. The dear exceptions are chip equipment makers: 🇳🇱 $ASML, 🇳🇱 $ASM, 🇳🇱 $BESI. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Scatter plot titled "European tech grows about as fast, at 19x instead of 23x". Each dot is a technology company, sized by market value: violet for the US, light blue for the EU. The horizontal axis is expected revenue growth next year from about minus 5% to 40% and over; the vertical axis is forward P/E from 0 to 50x and over. Two large ringed dots mark the medians: US at about 12% growth and 23x, EU at about 11% growth and 19x. Labelled European companies, dearest first: Soitec at 50x and over with 28% growth; OVH Groupe at about 44x with 9% growth; BE Semiconductor at about 29x with 35% growth; ASML at about 29x with 27% growth; ASM International at about 29x with 29% growth; AIXTRON at about 18x with 39% growth.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 06/10/2026

🚗 #stocks 🇺🇸 Copart $CPRT sells wrecked cars for insurers to bidders worldwide, taking a fee from both sides. It owns most of its land. Rival IAA leased 90%, and its margin trailed every year. 🇨🇦 RB Global $RBA now owns IAA. Copart is buying 🇺🇸 ACV $ACVA. midgardfinance.com/companies/CPRT/

Infographic titled How Copart makes money. Three boxes in a row are joined by arrows. The left box, Sellers, says 79% of cars come from insurers. The middle box, Copart, says 286 yards in 11 countries and 2.5 billion dollars of land owned. The right box, Buyers, says 1 million registered bidders and that 38% of US cars are sold to buyers abroad. Arrows labelled car run from sellers to Copart and from Copart to buyers. Blue arrows run back the other way: bid plus fee from buyers to Copart, bid minus fee from Copart to sellers. Below, a line chart of operating margin from 2017 to 2026. Copart's blue line runs between 32% and 42% and ends at 35%. IAA's grey line runs from 2017 to 2022, between 19% and 24%, and ends at 20%, below Copart in every year.

040

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 05/10/2026

📊 #pharma 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's semaglutide loses US exclusivity in December 2031. 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's Mounjaro holds until June 2039. 7.5 years apart, on the two molecules the whole obesity market runs on. midgardfinance.com/obesity/ $NOVO $LLY

031

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 05/10/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #retatrutide took off 18.8% in type 2 diabetes, the most of six drugs. 🇩🇪 Boehringer's #survodutide, from 🇩🇰 $ZEAL: 9.8%, and 26% stopped for side effects. All randomised patients. All of EASD in one post: midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/10/04/easd-2026-roundup/

Horizontal bar chart titled "Weight loss with type 2 diabetes": weight lost by adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes on the top dose of six drugs, each beside its own trial's placebo, counting all randomised patients. Retatrutide 12 mg (TRIUMPH-2, 80 weeks): 18.8% against 5.1% on placebo. Tirzepatide 15 mg (SURMOUNT-2, 72 weeks): 14.7% against 3.2% on placebo. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (REDEFINE 2, 68 weeks): 13.7% against 3.4% on placebo. Semaglutide 7.2 mg (STEP UP T2D, 72 weeks): 13.2% against 3.9% on placebo. Survodutide 6.0 mg (SYNCHRONIZE-2, 76 weeks): 9.8% against 3.9% on placebo. Orforglipron 36 mg (ATTAIN-2, 72 weeks): 9.6% against 2.5% on placebo. Retatrutide and survodutide, the two trials read out at the EASD congress, are drawn in purple and the other four in grey. These are separate trials of 68 to 80 weeks, not a head-to-head comparison.

031

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 04/10/2026

📊 #stocks #valuation Quality stocks cost 56% more per unit of sales than in 2006, but only 14% more per unit of normalised profit. Fatter margins did most of the re-rating, not fatter multiples. Both sit well below the 2021 peak. midgardfinance.com/screener/

Line chart titled "Quality stocks: more margin than multiple". Two lines show the change since October 2006 in the valuation of 727 companies rated high quality today, from 2006 to September 2026. Price to sales (light blue) falls to -56% in March 2009, climbs to a peak of +113% in November 2021, and ends at +56%. Price to normalised profit (purple) follows the same path lower down and ends at +14%. The two lines move together until about 2010 and then separate steadily, which is the effect of rising profit margins.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 03/10/2026

🚗 #stocks 🇺🇸 Copart $CPRT grew earnings per share 19% a year for ten years, from $0.28 to $1.55. Fiscal 2026 was its first down year since 2014: revenue flat, profit down 4%. It bought back $1.6bn of stock. Now 18x trailing earnings, median 35x since 2017. midgardfinance.com/companies/CPRT/

Bar chart of Copart's diluted earnings per share in US dollars for each fiscal year from 2016 to 2026, fiscal years ending 31 July, adjusted for stock splits. It rises every year from 0.28 dollars in fiscal 2016 to 1.59 dollars in fiscal 2025, then slips to 1.55 dollars in fiscal 2026, the last bar, drawn in blue. Over the 10 years that is growth of about 19% a year. Fiscal 2017 includes a one-off tax benefit.

Bar chart of Copart's annual revenue in billions of US dollars for each fiscal year from 2016 to 2026. It grows from 1.3 billion in fiscal 2016 to 4.65 billion in fiscal 2025 and is almost unchanged at 4.67 billion in fiscal 2026, the last bar, drawn in blue. Net income fell 4% in that year, the first decline since fiscal 2014.

Line chart of Copart's diluted weighted-average share count in millions, each fiscal quarter from October 2015 to July 2026, adjusted for stock splits. The vertical axis runs from 880 to 1,040 million. The count falls from 1,017 to 949 million during fiscal 2016, stays between 942 and 979 million for the next nine years, then drops from 978 million a year earlier to 932 million in the latest quarter, marked with a blue dot, after Copart spent 1.6 billion dollars buying back shares in fiscal 2026, its first buyback since fiscal 2019.

Line chart of Copart's share price divided by its trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, every trading day from November 2017 to today, the earnings stepping on the day each quarterly or annual report was filed. The chart starts once a one-off tax benefit in 2016 had left the trailing year. It peaked at 46x in November 2024 and its lowest point was 17x in July 2026. A dashed line marks the median of the period, 35x. Today, at a share price of 27 dollars against earnings for the twelve months to July 2026, it is 18x, marked with a blue dot.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 02/10/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 The typical US stock trades at 17x forward earnings, 🇪🇺 the typical European one at 14x and 🇬🇧 the typical British one at 13x. Sector by sector the US is dearest in all 10. The widest gaps are industrials, 22x vs 17x, and technology, 23x vs 18x. midgardfinance.com/pe-by-country/

Dot chart titled "The typical US stock is dearest in all 10 sectors". One row per sector with a violet US dot, a light blue EU27 dot and a green UK dot on a median forward P/E axis from 10x to 30x; the UK dot appears only where the UK has enough companies. All sectors: UK 13x, EU 14x, US 17x. Comms: UK and EU 13x, US 17x. Industrials: EU 17x, UK 18x, US 22x. Technology: EU 18x, US 23x. Healthcare: EU 17x, US 22x. Cyclicals: EU 12.5x, UK 13x, US 16x. Energy: EU 11x, US 14x. Materials: UK 14x, EU 15x, US 17x. Utilities: EU 15x, US 17x. Staples: UK 14x, EU 14.5x, US 16x. Financials: UK 11x, EU 11x, US 12x.

030

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 02/10/2026

💊 #pharma #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #orforglipron on major heart events vs insulin: hazard ratio 0.77 (0.52-1.13). Too small a trial to prove a benefit. Not head to head: tirzepatide 0.92 vs dulaglutide; 🇩🇰 $NOVO #semaglutide pill 0.86, injection 0.80 vs placebo. midgardfinance.com/cardiovascular/

Forest plot of hazard ratios for major heart events (heart attack, stroke or cardiovascular death) in four outcome trials of incretin drugs, on a log axis with a vertical line at 1; left of the line means fewer events than the comparison arm. The rows are in two groups because the trials were run against different things. Tested against placebo, in light blue: Semaglutide injection against placebo (SELECT, 17,604 patients): 0.80, interval 0.72 to 0.90. Semaglutide pill against placebo (SOUL, 9,650 patients): 0.86, interval 0.77 to 0.96. Tested against another drug, in purple: Tirzepatide against dulaglutide (SURPASS-CVOT, 13,299 patients): 0.92, interval 0.83 to 1.01. Orforglipron pill against insulin glargine (ACHIEVE-4, 2,749 patients): 0.77, interval 0.52 to 1.13. Orforglipron's estimate lies among the others, but its interval is about 4 times as wide and crosses 1: its trial was sized to rule out harm, which it did, not to prove a benefit. These are separate trials, not head-to-head comparisons. Dulaglutide is itself a heart-protective drug, so a ratio against it cannot be set beside a ratio against placebo, and SELECT enrolled people without diabetes while the other three enrolled people with type 2 diabetes. For orforglipron this is the three-part endpoint; its primary endpoint, which also counts hospitalisation for unstable angina, was 0.84 with an interval of 0.59 to 1.20.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 02/10/2026

💉 #diabetes #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #Onswik and 🇩🇰 $NOVO #Awiqli are racing for the flat half of the business. Novo's insulin: EUR 1.7bn a quarter, flat since 2020. Incretins: Novo EUR 8.0bn, Lilly EUR 13.8bn. New post, with ACHIEVE-4: midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/10/01/weekly-insulin-onswik-awiqli/

Two line charts side by side titled "Insulin stood still while incretins took off", quarterly revenue in EUR billion from 2020 to 2026. Left, Novo Nordisk: insulin stays close to 2 and ends at 1.7; incretins rise from about 1.5 to 8.0. Right, Eli Lilly: incretins rise from about 1 to 13.8; the insulin line drifts down to 0.8 and stops at Q1 2024, the last quarter Lilly reported its insulin brands separately.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 02/10/2026

💉 #obesity 🇺🇸 #Retatrutide in TRIUMPH-1: 27% of patients lost more than a THIRD of their body weight at 80 weeks. The Phase 2 trial never reported that threshold. At 30%+: 45% vs 26%. Longer trial, deeper loss. midgardfinance.com/obesity/drugs/retatrutide/ $LLY

Grouped bar chart comparing retatrutide 12 mg against itself at two stages of its programme, showing the share of patients reaching each weight-loss threshold. Grey bars are the phase 2 trial at 48 weeks, which has no acronym, and blue bars the phase 3 trial TRIUMPH-1 at 80 weeks. At 25 per cent or more of body weight lost, Phase 2 reached 48 per cent of patients and Phase 3 62. At 30 per cent or more, Phase 2 reached 26 and Phase 3 45. At 35 per cent or more, Phase 3 reached 27 per cent and Phase 2 is absent because that trial never reported the threshold, which is labelled on the chart rather than drawn as a zero. Both readings are the efficacy estimand, the adherent population, so they are matched on that axis. They are not matched on duration: the Phase 3 trial ran 32 weeks longer, so part of every gap is more time on treatment rather than a difference between the programmes. The Phase 2 figures come from the published trial paper; the Phase 3 figures come from a sponsor press release, which is the primary source until the trial publishes but is a tier below a peer-reviewed table.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

💉 #pharma #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #eloralintide added 8.5 points of weight loss to tirzepatide in type 2 diabetes: 23.3% vs 14.8%, 48 wk. 🇩🇰 $NOVO #CagriSema: 4.0 added to semaglutide, 14.2% vs 10.2%, 68 wk. One-molecule #zenagamtide: 14.6%, 36 wk. Separate trials. midgardfinance.com/diabetes/

Chart titled "Amylin added 8.5 points to tirzepatide, 4.0 to semaglutide". Three rows, each a separate trial in adults with type 2 diabetes, showing the average weight loss at the top dose as estimated for people staying on treatment. Top row, Lilly, two molecules, phase 2b, 48 weeks: a grey point for tirzepatide 15 mg alone at 14.8 per cent joined to a red point for the same dose with eloralintide 9 mg at 23.3 per cent. Middle row, Novo, two molecules, the REIMAGINE 2 trial, phase 3, 68 weeks: a grey point for semaglutide 2.4 mg alone at 10.2 per cent joined to a blue point for the same dose with cagrilintide 2.4 mg at 14.2 per cent. Bottom row, Novo, one molecule, phase 2, 36 weeks: a single blue point for zenagamtide 40 mg at 14.6 per cent, marked as having no arm without amylin, because both actions are in the same molecule. The rows are not a ranking: the trials differ in length, stage and participants, and only the gap inside a row compares like with like.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

💊 #pharma #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY #orforglipron, a daily pill, vs insulin glargine in type 2 diabetes at high CV risk (ACHIEVE-4, n=2,749): major CV events HR 0.84 (0.59-1.20). Non-inferior, not shown better. Deaths HR 0.43 (0.25-0.75), not a formally tested endpoint. midgardfinance.com/diabetes/

Forest plot titled "Orforglipron pill vs insulin glargine", from Lilly's ACHIEVE-4 trial in 2,749 adults with type 2 diabetes, obesity or overweight and raised cardiovascular risk. Four hazard ratios with 95% intervals on a log axis from 0.2 to 2, with a vertical line at 1; below 1 favours the pill. MACE-4 (primary): 0.84 (0.59-1.20). MACE-3: 0.77 (0.52-1.13). Cardiovascular death: 0.47 (0.25-0.90). Death, any cause: 0.43 (0.25-0.75). The first two, drawn in grey, were the tested endpoints and their intervals cross 1: the pill met non-inferiority (limit 1.8) and was not shown to be better. The two death endpoints, in purple, sit below 1 but were not controlled for multiple testing. Open-label trial, median follow-up two years; the primary endpoint occurred in 57 of 1,358 on the pill and 67 of 1,343 on insulin. At week 52, counting all randomised patients, HbA1c fell 1.5 points on the pill and 1.0 on insulin; weight changed -7.8% and +1.1%.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇩🇪 Boehringer's #survodutide, from 🇩🇰 Zealand, in obesity with type 2 diabetes. Phase 3, NEJM: Weight, all randomised: -9.8% vs -3.9% placebo On treatment: -13.1% Stopped for side effects: 26% vs 9%. Four rivals: 6-11% midgardfinance.com/obesity/drugs/survodutide/ $ZEAL

Scatter chart of five obesity drugs in their phase 3 trials in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes, one point per drug at its top dose. Across: the share of patients who stopped the drug because of side effects. Down: average weight change counting all randomised patients. Semaglutide 7.2 mg (STEP UP T2D, 72 weeks): 6 per cent stopped, weight -13.2 per cent. Retatrutide 12 mg (TRIUMPH-2, 80 weeks): 7 per cent stopped, weight -18.8 per cent. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (REDEFINE 2, 68 weeks): 8 per cent stopped, weight -13.7 per cent. Orforglipron 36 mg (ATTAIN-2, 72 weeks): 11 per cent stopped, weight -9.6 per cent. Survodutide 6 mg (SYNCHRONIZE-2, 76 weeks): 26 per cent stopped, weight -9.8 per cent. Four of the points sit between 6 and 11 per cent stopping; survodutide is alone on the right at 26 per cent, with about the same weight loss as the oral drug orforglipron. Survodutide's trial was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on 1 October 2026. These are separate trials with different participants and lengths, not a head-to-head comparison. Tirzepatide is not shown because its trial's published summary gives no comparable figure for stopping.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

📈 #bonds #rates 🇩🇪 Germany's 10-year government bond yield reached 3.66% on 28 September, its highest since 2009. 🇺🇸 The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% on 30 September, its highest since 2002. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/

Line chart of two ten-year government bond yields every day from 1999 to 30 September 2026. In blue, Germany; in grey, the United States. Both fell for two decades, from highs of 5.68 per cent in Germany in January 2000 and 6.79 per cent in the US in January 2000 to lows of -0.85 per cent in March 2020 and 0.52 per cent in August 2020. Germany's yield first fell below zero in June 2016 and was last below zero in March 2022. Both have climbed since. A dashed blue line at 3.66 per cent, the level Germany reached on 28 September 2026, runs back to July 2009, the last time the yield was that high. A dashed grey line at 5.29 per cent, the US level on 30 September 2026, runs back to May 2002. The latest values are 3.60 per cent for Germany and 5.29 per cent for the US, a gap of 1.69 percentage points.

030

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/10/2026

💉 #pharma #EASD2026 Weight loss in type 2 diabetes, top doses, all randomised: 🇺🇸 $LLY retatrutide -18.8%, tirzepatide -14.7%; 🇩🇰 $NOVO CagriSema -13.7%, semaglutide 7.2 mg -13.2%; oral orforglipron -9.6%. Separate trials, 68-80 wk. No EloraTZP: on-drug data only. midgardfinance.com/diabetes/

Horizontal bar chart titled "Weight loss with type 2 diabetes". For each obesity drug's dedicated trial in adults with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes, the top dose (purple) beside that trial's placebo (grey), counting all randomised patients including those who stopped. Retatrutide 12 mg, TRIUMPH-2, 80 weeks: 18.8% vs placebo 5.1%. Tirzepatide 15 mg, SURMOUNT-2, 72 weeks: 14.7% vs 3.2%. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg, REDEFINE 2, 68 weeks: 13.7% vs 3.4%. Semaglutide 7.2 mg, STEP UP T2D, 72 weeks: 13.2% vs 3.9%. Semaglutide 2.4 mg, same trial: 10.4% vs 3.9%. Orforglipron 36 mg, ATTAIN-2, 72 weeks: 9.6% vs 2.5%.

041

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/09/2026

💉 #pharma #EASD2026 🇺🇸 $LLY adds amylin to tirzepatide in obesity with type 2 diabetes: -23.3% weight and -2.9 points of HbA1c at 48 weeks, vs -14.8% and -2.4 on tirzepatide alone. Stopped treatment: 11-27% on the combos, 17% on placebo, 3% on tirzepatide alone.

Two bar charts side by side titled "Amylin on top of tirzepatide, week 48", from Lilly's phase 2b trial in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. Six bars in each: placebo, tirzepatide 15 mg alone, and four combinations of eloralintide with tirzepatide. Left, weight loss: placebo 3.0%, tirzepatide 15 mg 14.8%, eloralintide 3 mg with tirzepatide 5 mg 13.2%, 6 with 5 19.4%, 6 with 10 19.9%, 9 with 15 23.3%. Right, HbA1c fall in percentage points: placebo 0.3, tirzepatide 2.4, then 2.2, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.9 for the combinations. All efficacy estimand.

021

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/09/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇩🇰 Zealand's #petrelintide, partnered with 🇨🇭 Roche, Phase 2 ZUPREME-1 in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, week 42: 1 mg: -8.7% 5 mg: -10.7% 9 mg: -10.2% Placebo: -1.7% Nine times the dose adds 1.5 points. Vomiting 3%, below placebo's 6%. $ZEAL $RO

Bar chart of average weight change at week 42 in the phase 2 ZUPREME-1 trial of petrelintide, Zealand Pharma's weekly amylin injection partnered with Roche, published in The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology on 29 September 2026. One grey bar for placebo and five blue bars for the weekly doses: placebo -1.7 per cent, 1 mg -8.7 per cent, 2.5 mg -9.2 per cent, 5 mg -10.7 per cent, 7 mg -10.5 per cent, 9 mg -10.2 per cent. The five dose bars are almost the same height: the lowest dose loses 8.7 per cent and the highest 10.2 per cent, and the deepest arm is 5 mg, not the top dose. Figures are for patients who stayed on treatment.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/09/2026

💉 #obesity #EASD2026 🇺🇸 Lilly's #retatrutide 12 mg, 80 weeks, two Phase 3 trials published this week: Without diabetes (TRIUMPH-1, NEJM): -28.3% With type 2 diabetes (TRIUMPH-2, Lancet): -20.8% Same drug, same dose. Type 2 diabetes costs about a quarter of the weight loss. $LLY

Line chart of average weight change over 80 weeks on retatrutide 12 mg in two phase 3 trials published on 29 September 2026. The line that falls further is TRIUMPH-1 (New England Journal of Medicine), adults with obesity and no diabetes; the shallower line is TRIUMPH-2 (The Lancet), adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Both lines fall steeply for the first 36 weeks and flatten after week 52. The lines show the published average of patients on treatment, ending at -27.6 and -21.3 per cent at week 80. The two dots to the right are each trial's estimate for patients who stayed on the drug: -28.3 per cent without diabetes and -20.8 per cent with type 2 diabetes, a gap of 7.5 points. These are separate trials with different participants, so the gap is not a randomised comparison, although the drug, dose, duration and method are the same.

011

Reposted by midgardfinance.com

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology @thelancetendo.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

New—Petrelintide, a human amylin analogue for the treatment of obesity (ZUPREME 1): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial thelancet.com/journals/lan... #obesity #EASD2026 #MedSky #EndoSky

(A) Estimated mean change in bodyweight by treatment week (efficacy estimand). (B) Least squares mean change in bodyweight from baseline to week 42 (efficacy estimand). (C) Observed mean change in bodyweight by treatment week (treatment policy estimand). (D) Least squares mean change in bodyweight (%) from baseline to week 42 (treatment policy estimand). *p<0·0001 for difference versus placebo. †Treatment policy estimates at week 42.

172

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 29/09/2026

📊 #obesity 🇺🇸🇩🇰 Retatrutide 12 mg: 63% of patients lost a fifth of their body weight. Tirzepatide 15 mg: 63%. Semaglutide 2.4mg: 35%. Orforglipron: 20%. The average hides that. $LLY $NOVO

Grouped bar chart showing how many patients in four obesity trials reached each weight-loss level: 5, 10, 15 and 20 per cent or more of body weight. One coloured bar per drug in each group. Retatrutide 12 mg at 48 weeks, phase 2: 100 per cent reached 5 per cent, 93 per cent reached 10 per cent, 83 per cent reached 15 per cent, 63 per cent reached 20 per cent; Tirzepatide 15 mg at 72 weeks, phase 3: 96 per cent reached 5 per cent, 90 per cent reached 10 per cent, 78 per cent reached 15 per cent, 63 per cent reached 20 per cent; Semaglutide 2.4 mg at 68 weeks, phase 3: 92 per cent reached 5 per cent, 75 per cent reached 10 per cent, 55 per cent reached 15 per cent, 35 per cent reached 20 per cent; Orforglipron 36 mg at 72 weeks, phase 3: 77 per cent reached 5 per cent, 60 per cent reached 10 per cent, 40 per cent reached 15 per cent, 20 per cent reached 20 per cent. Every figure is the adherent-population estimand, which Lilly and Amgen call the efficacy estimand and Novo Nordisk the trial-product estimand, so all four bars answer the same question; the treatment-policy figures, which include patients who stopped, are lower and are not mixed in. Trial lengths differ, from 48 to 72 weeks, so this is not a controlled comparison. Retatrutide's bar is its PHASE 2 trial: its phase 3, TRIUMPH-1, reports only the 25, 30 and 35 per cent thresholds and cannot fill this ladder. The other three are phase 3. CagriSema is absent because no adherent-estimand ladder exists for it in this data, and MariTide because its 420 mg arm appears three times with three different results.

011

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 28/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇪🇺 European earnings estimates are going UP. 61% of the STOXX 600 has had its 2026 forecast raised since April, 34% cut. Median company: +1.6%. So much for stagnant Europe.

Line chart of how European earnings estimates have moved since April 2026, from April 2026 to September 2026. Two lines, both starting at zero because every company equals its own starting point on the first date. The share of STOXX 600 companies whose 2026 earnings estimate has been RAISED climbs to 61 per cent, while the share CUT reaches 34 per cent, so upgrades run roughly 1.8 times downgrades. The median company's estimate is +1.6 per cent over the period. 529 companies are compared, counted only where an estimate exists both at the start and on the date drawn, so a company losing coverage cannot flatter the result. A raised estimate is a change in the forecast, not a change in the share price.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 27/09/2026

💊 #pharma #MCP Our obesity and incretin trial data is now an MCP server. Ask Claude Code, get estimand-tagged answers with a citation. Free. Why it matters: the same trial reports two weight-loss numbers, up to 3.6pp apart. Twelve do. mcp.midgardfinance.com $LLY 🇺🇸 $NOVO 🇩🇰

Grouped bar chart of twelve obesity drugs, each with two bars for the same trial. The blue bar is the on-treatment (efficacy) estimand, the purple the treatment-policy estimand, both as percentage of body weight lost. Retatrutide is deepest at 28.3 against 25.0, then CagriSema 22.7 against 20.4, Zepbound 22.5 against 20.9, Wegovy HD 20.7 against 18.7, Ribupatide 19.2 against 17.7, Mazdutide 18.6 against 16.7, Bofanglutide 17.3 against 16.7, Wegovy 16.9 against 14.9, Survodutide 16.6 against 13.0, Wegovy pill 16.6 against 13.6, Ecnoglutide 14.1 against 13.2 and Foundayo 12.4 against 11.2. The on-treatment figure is higher in every case. Each pair is the top dose of that drug in the trial named, and trial durations differ, from 30 to 80 weeks, so the comparison that matters is within each pair rather than between drugs.

051

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 26/09/2026

💉 #diabetes 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's #Onswik won FDA approval on Wednesday, the second once-weekly insulin in the US after 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's Awiqli in March. It lands in the flat half of Novo: insulin has sat near EUR 1.7bn a quarter since 2020, while the incretins beside it went 5.5x. $LLY $NOVO

Line chart of Novo Nordisk's revenue per quarter in euro billions, from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2026, with two series. The incretin line, in violet, starts at about 1.5 billion, crosses the insulin line during 2021, climbs steeply through 2022 and 2023 to about 6.5 billion, peaks near 8.5 billion at the end of 2024, and ends at 8.0 billion. The insulin line, in light blue, starts at about 1.8 billion and stays between roughly 1.5 and 2.1 billion for the whole six years, ending at 1.7 billion, slightly below where it began. The two lines end far apart, with the incretins about four and a half times the insulin franchise. The title reads: Lilly's weekly insulin lands in Novo's flat half.

021

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 25/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇳🇴 Norway's oil fund held $1.00tn of US stocks at the end of June - the 14th largest holder, behind Goldman Sachs, ahead of Citadel. $65bn of it is Nvidia alone. $NVDA

Ranked horizontal bar chart of the 20 largest institutional holders of US-listed shares at 30 June 2026, by reported value in US dollars. Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, is highlighted in blue at number 14; the rest are grey. BlackRock 6.73 trillion; Vanguard 4.68 trillion; State Street 3.37 trillion; FMR 2.30 trillion; Vanguard 2.22 trillion; Morgan Stanley 1.89 trillion; Geode 1.88 trillion; JPMorgan Chase 1.81 trillion; Bank Of America 1.55 trillion; Susquehanna International 1.28 trillion; Invesco 1.26 trillion; Jane Street 1.21 trillion; Goldman Sachs 1.15 trillion; Norges Bank 1.00 trillion; Citadel 0.88 trillion; Northern Trust 0.86 trillion; Capital World Investors 0.85 trillion; UBS Group AG 0.79 trillion; Charles Schwab 0.75 trillion; Sixth Street 0.75 trillion. Norges Bank holds 1.00 trillion dollars across 1,617 positions, behind Goldman Sachs and ahead of Citadel. Its largest single holding is Nvidia at 65 billion dollars, 6.5% of the book. The ranking is by FILER rather than by group: Vanguard appears twice because two of its entities file separately, and combined it would rank higher. These are US-listed equity positions reported quarterly by managers above the reporting threshold, not the fund's total assets, which are far larger and mostly outside America.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 24/09/2026

📊 #pharma 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk employed 27,896 people in Denmark in June, down from 33,881 a year earlier. That is 18% below the peak, and the steepest month was February: 1,950 fewer. Danish entity, not the group. $NOVO

Line chart of the number of people Novo Nordisk employs in Denmark, monthly, from October 2019 to June 2026, in thousands. The line starts at 18.6 thousand, dips slightly through 2020, then climbs steadily from 2021 to a peak of 33,881 in June 2025, marked on the chart. It then falls to 27,896 in June 2026, also marked, 18% below the peak. The steepest single month was February 2026, a fall of 1,950. The series counts employees of the Danish registered company only, not the global group, and comes from the Danish income register.

041

Reposted by midgardfinance.com

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 22/09/2026

💉 #obesity 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk's #CagriSema beat 🇺🇸 Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in REIMAGINE 5: 12.4% against 9.1% weight loss at 60 weeks in type 2 diabetes. At 1.0/1.0 mg, against tirzepatide's lowest 5 mg. The three head-to-heads fought at top dose all went to Lilly. $NOVO $LLY

Horizontal bar chart of the four head-to-head trials that put a Novo Nordisk incretin against an Eli Lilly one, oldest readout at the top, weight loss at the primary endpoint on a scale from zero to about 34 per cent. Each trial has two bars, the Novo arm in blue above the Lilly arm in red, and each bar is labelled with the drug, its dose and its result. Each row also says whether the arms were at their top dose. SURMOUNT-5, obesity, 72 weeks, 2025, won by Lilly, both at top dose in 2025: semaglutide 2.4 mg 13.7 per cent against tirzepatide 15 mg 20.2 per cent. REDEFINE 4, obesity, 84 weeks, February 2026, won by Lilly, both at top dose: CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg 23.0 per cent against tirzepatide 15 mg 25.5 per cent. ACHIEVE-3, type 2 diabetes, 52 weeks, March 2026, won by Lilly, both at top dose: oral semaglutide 14 mg 5.3 per cent against orforglipron 36 mg 8.2 per cent. REIMAGINE 5, type 2 diabetes, 60 weeks, September 2026, won by Novo, neither at top dose: CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg 12.4 per cent against tirzepatide 5 mg 9.1 per cent, the only row where the blue bar is longer than the red one.

042

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 22/09/2026

042

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 21/09/2026

📊 #stocks #Greece 🇬🇷 Nine Greek companies join the STOXX 600 on 21 September - the whole country's developed-market bench in one day, EUR 92bn, 0.56% of the index. 4 of the 9 are banks. Index funds must hold them all. $ETE

Ranked horizontal bar chart of the nine Greek companies joining the STOXX Europe 600 on 21 September 2026, by market value in euros. Bars are blue for the four banks and grey for the rest. Eurobank, bank, EUR 16.7 billion; National Bank of Greece, bank, EUR 15.7 billion; Public Power, power, EUR 14.2 billion; Piraeus, bank, EUR 12.7 billion; Alpha Bank, bank, EUR 10.7 billion; Motor Oil Hellas, oil refining, EUR 7.4 billion; Metlen, energy and metals, EUR 6.5 billion; GEK Terna, construction, EUR 4.4 billion; Jumbo, retail, EUR 3.4 billion. Together they are EUR 92 billion, about 0.56% of an index that becomes EUR 16.44 trillion. That is more than Portugal's whole representation and less than Ireland's. All nine enter at once because Greece moves from Emerging to Developed Market classification on the same day, so every fund tracking the index has to hold them.

030

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 20/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 $GOOGL took the biggest institutional inflow of Q2 2026: +$81bn, ahead of $NVDA at +$59bn, $AAPL at +$56bn. $XOM was the biggest cut at -$19bn. 146 of 232 large caps ended June with more shares held.

Horizontal bar chart of the 20 largest changes in shares held by institutional managers between 31 March and 30 June 2026, valued at 30 June prices. Bar length is the change in dollars, additions in blue to the right of zero and reductions in purple to the left. Additions: Alphabet +81 billion dollars, Nvidia +59 billion dollars, Apple +56 billion dollars, Amazon +45 billion dollars, Microsoft +31 billion dollars, Broadcom +28 billion dollars, Tesla +27 billion dollars, RTX +25 billion dollars, Meta Platforms +16 billion dollars, Palantir +13 billion dollars, Walmart +12 billion dollars, ASML +12 billion dollars, Quanta Svcs +11 billion dollars. Reductions: AT&T -3 billion dollars, TC Energy -4 billion dollars, Royal Bank of Canada -6 billion dollars, Toronto Dominion -6 billion dollars, Mastercard -6 billion dollars, Salesforce -8 billion dollars, Exxon Mobil -19 billion dollars. Across the whole sample, 146 of 232 companies were held in larger share counts at the end of June than at the end of March, a median of +0.5 per cent more shares.

111

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 19/09/2026

🚚 #logistics 🇩🇰 $DSV's Road unit revenue nearly doubled in FY2025: 41 to 78bn DKK, +92.5%. Air & Sea +31.4% (104 to 137bn), Contract Logistics +69.6% (26 to 43bn). Group revenue +48.0% to 247bn. The jump is Schenker, not organic growth. midgardfinance.com/companies/DSV.CO/

Grouped bar chart titled "DSV revenue by segment, FY2024 vs FY2025" on a dark background. The y-axis is revenue in DKK billion, from 0 to 300. The x-axis has four groups, each with a blue FY2024 bar and a green FY2025 bar side by side, and a green percentage above each pair showing the year-on-year change. A note under the legend reads "Growth in reported DKK". Road: FY2024 41 billion (40,507 million), FY2025 78 billion (77,977 million), up 92.5 percent, the steepest jump on the chart. Air & Sea: FY2024 104 billion (104,496 million), FY2025 137 billion (137,320 million), up 31.4 percent, the smallest percentage gain. Contract Logistics: FY2024 26 billion (25,624 million), FY2025 43 billion (43,463 million), up 69.6 percent. Group total: FY2024 167 billion (167,106 million), FY2025 247 billion (247,331 million), up 48.0 percent. Road's bars are the shortest pair on the chart but grow proportionally the most, visibly outpacing the group total's growth rate, while Air & Sea remains the largest individual segment in both years. A "midgardfinance.com" watermark sits in the bottom right corner.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 18/09/2026

🏦 #ECB #Fed 🇪🇺 The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% this month, its second hike this year. 🇺🇸 The Fed followed, to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023.

Step chart of two central bank policy rates every day from 1999 to today. In blue, the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate; in grey, the top of the US Federal Reserve's target range, or its single target rate before December 2008. Both fell to near zero after 2008. The ECB's rate was below zero from June 2014 to July 2022, reaching -0.50 per cent, marked on the chart. Both rose sharply in 2022 and 2023, to 5.50 per cent for the Fed and 4.00 per cent for the ECB, then fell. The ECB raised its rate to 2.50 per cent with effect from 16 September 2026, its second increase this year, and the Fed raised the top of its range to 4.00 per cent with effect from 17 September 2026, its first increase since July 2023. The US rate is 1.50 percentage points above the euro rate.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 17/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇳🇱 $ASML has nearly tripled revenue since 2019 and $ASM is not far behind. Nobody else supplying Europe's AI build-out has doubled. 2019 = 100: $ASML 276 · $ASM 247 · $IFX 183 · $BESI 166 Schneider 148 · Legrand 143 · Air Liquide 123 · Nexans 116

Line chart of revenue at eight European suppliers to the AI build-out, 2016 to 2025, each indexed to 100 in 2019. All eight sit near 100 through 2019, then separate. The three equipment makers and the one chipmaker rise fastest: ASML to 276 and ASM International to 247, both lithography and deposition; then Infineon, which makes chips rather than the tools, to 183; and BE Semiconductor, an equipment maker, to 166, that one peaking above 200 in 2021 and falling back. The electrical, cable and industrial gas companies rise far less: Schneider Electric to 148, Legrand to 143, Air Liquide to 123 and Nexans to 116.

121

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 16/09/2026

🏭 #pharma Novo Nordisk's capex has rolled over: DKK84.1bn on a trailing twelve months, down from DKK90.1bn. Buybacks turned at the same time, DKK2.8bn to DKK5.9bn. Dividends flat at DKK52.0bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ 🇩🇰 $NOVO

Line chart on a dark background titled Novo Nordisk capital allocation, trailing twelve months. Three lines in DKK billion, each a rolling four-quarter sum, running from 2021Q2 to 2026Q2, with only the final point marked and labelled at the right-hand edge.

Capex, in blue, is the top line. It falls to DKK22.4bn early in the series, climbs to a peak of DKK90.1bn at 2025Q4, and has eased for 2 quarters since to DKK84.1bn.

Dividends, in green, sit in the middle and are flat at the end: DKK52.0bn, having been near DKK52.1bn for the last four quarters.

Buybacks, in purple, are the bottom line at the end. They peak at DKK29.9bn at 2023Q4, fall to DKK2.8bn at 2025Q4, and have recovered to DKK5.9bn. Capex crosses above buybacks during 2023 and the two have not crossed back.

A trailing twelve-month basis is used because Novo pays dividends in one or two lumps a year, so a quarterly line would swing between zero and a spike. Footer text reads midgardfinance.com.

011

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 15/09/2026

📊 #software #stocks 🇺🇸 Adobe $ADBE trades at 10.6x free cash flow, down from 59x in 2020. In June it hit 7.8x, below its 2011 low of 10.1x. Cash per share is up 6x since 2016. midgardfinance.com/companies/ADBE/

Line chart of Adobe's share price divided by its trailing twelve-month free cash flow per diluted share, every trading day from July 2010 to today, the free cash flow stepping on the day each quarterly or annual report was filed. It stood at 10.1x in August 2011, peaked at 59x in September 2020, and after a long decline reached a low of 7.8x in June 2026, the lowest on the chart. Today, at a share price of 263 dollars against free cash flow for the twelve months to May 2026, it is 10.6x, marked in blue with a dashed line across the chart. Free cash flow per share is 6.3 times its fiscal 2016 level. Subtracting stock-based compensation, today's multiple is 13.2x.

011

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 14/09/2026

💉 #pharma 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk stopped two more ziltivekimab heart trials on 4 Sep. With ZEUS, 11,964 patients are now in phase 3 trials that failed or were halted. What is left of the programme rests on ARTEMIS: 10,000 patients, reading out 2027. $NOVO

Timeline of every registered phase 3 ziltivekimab trial, one horizontal bar per trial running from its start date to its planned completion, or to the day it was stopped where it was stopped early, 5 in total from 2021 to 2028. Bars are grey where the trial failed on its endpoint or was stopped early and blue where it is still running, and a dashed vertical line marks 4 September 2026, when two trials were stopped. ZEUS, 6,385 patients, 2021 to 2026, failed on its endpoint; HERMES, 4,899 patients, 2023 to 2026, stopped early; ATHENA, 680 patients, 2024 to 2026, stopped early; ARTEMIS, 10,000 patients, 2024 to 2027, still running; ZEPHYR, 332 patients, 2025 to 2028, still running. The three dead phase 3 trials randomised 11,964 patients between them. ARTEMIS, the largest in the programme at 10,000 patients and reading out in 2027, is still running. One further phase 3 trial in coronary plaque after a heart attack began in 2025, enrolling 332 patients in total. The chart's point is how concentrated the remaining risk is: one trial started before the failures now carries almost everything still running.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 13/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇳🇱 $ASML took the most US institutional buying in Europe last quarter, +9.3% more shares held. 🇫🇷 Sanofi $SAN was cut hardest at -8.4%, then 🇬🇧 $GSK, 🇨🇭 $NOVN.

Horizontal bar chart of the change in shares of 25 European companies held by US institutional managers between 31 March and 30 June 2026, measured on their US listings. Bar length is the percentage change in share count, additions in blue to the right of zero and reductions in purple to the left. ASML +9.3 per cent, Unilever +4.6 per cent, NXP Semiconductors +3.2 per cent, Ferrari +3.1 per cent, Diageo +3.1 per cent, Deutsche Bank +3.0 per cent, Santander +2.8 per cent, AstraZeneca +2.2 per cent, Equinor +2.2 per cent, UBS +1.0 per cent, Rio Tinto +0.9 per cent, CRH +0.5 per cent, Spotify +0.5 per cent, Alcon +0.3 per cent, RELX +0.2 per cent, Shell +0.1 per cent, HSBC +0.1 per cent, TotalEnergies -0.0 per cent, Novo Nordisk -0.2 per cent, Vodafone -0.9 per cent, Barclays -2.9 per cent, SAP -2.9 per cent, Novartis -5.7 per cent, GSK -6.6 per cent, Sanofi -8.4 per cent. 17 of 25 were held in larger share counts at the end of June than at the end of March.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 12/09/2026

👜 #luxury 🇫🇷 $KER was 2.4x the size of $RMS in 2015. In 2025 it is smaller. Hermes EUR16.0bn revenue, 42% operating margin. Kering EUR14.7bn, 11%. Its margin ran 11% to 29% and back to 11% in a decade. H1 2026: Hermes EUR8.16bn, Kering EUR7.22bn.

Two stacked line charts, 2015 to 2025. Top: annual revenue in euro billions. Kering starts at 11.6 and peaks at 20.4 in 2022 before falling to 14.7 in 2025. Hermes rises steadily from 4.8 to 16.0 and overtakes Kering in 2025. Bottom: operating margin. Hermes climbs from 32% to 42%. Kering rises from 11% to 29% by 2019 then falls back to 11% in 2025.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 11/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇳🇱 $ADYEN grew revenue 38.9% a year for a decade on an almost dead-straight line, R² 0.99. 🇵🇱 $DNP 29.2%, 🇳🇱 $ASML 17.9%. 15 European names clear the bar, ex financials and real estate. midgardfinance.com/screener/

Horizontal bar chart titled Europe's quietest compounders: a decade of near-perfectly linear growth. The x-axis is 10-year revenue CAGR in per cent. 15 European companies, each with a true EUR market cap above EUR2 billion and excluding real estate and financial companies, are ranked from lowest CAGR at the top to highest at the bottom. To the right, under a header reading trend fit (R squared), a violet dot is plotted for each company, larger the closer its R squared is to 1.00, with the number printed beside it. From top to bottom: Krka 5.8 per cent, R squared 0.99; Coloplast 6.9 per cent, R squared 0.98; LDC 7.7 per cent, R squared 0.98; EMEIS 9.4 per cent, R squared 1.00; Teleperformance 11.6 per cent, R squared 0.98; Latour 12.5 per cent, R squared 0.98; Sectra 12.7 per cent, R squared 0.98; Lifco 13.6 per cent, R squared 0.98; ID Logistics 14.9 per cent, R squared 0.98; Nemetschek 15.4 per cent, R squared 0.99; Inter Cars 16.0 per cent, R squared 0.98; ASML 17.9 per cent, R squared 0.99; Medicover 19.1 per cent, R squared 0.99; Dino Polska 29.2 per cent, R squared 0.99; Adyen 38.9 per cent, R squared 0.99. Adyen has the longest bar, at the bottom. All bars are the same blue; the dots are violet on a dark background, and a midgardfinance.com watermark sits bottom right.

011

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 10/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 The median S&P 500 company trades at 1.40x the price-to-sales it had at end-2006, and 68% of them are dearer than they were. 🇪🇺 STOXX 600: 1.10x, 59%. n=543

Two overlapping histograms on a dark background, titled Two decades on from the pre-crisis peak. The horizontal axis is a company's price-to-sales today divided by its own price-to-sales at the end of 2006, on a logarithmic scale from about 0.1 times to 10 times; the vertical axis counts companies. Blue is the S&P 500 and purple the STOXX 600, with a dashed white line at 1.0 marking no change since 2006 and a solid line of each colour at that index's median. S&P 500: 339 companies, median 1.40 times, so the typical company is 40 per cent dearer than it was, and 68 per cent of them are above 1.0. STOXX 600: 204 companies, median 1.10 times, so the typical company is 10 per cent dearer than it was, and 59 per cent of them are above 1.0. The median ratio and the share above 1.0 are different measures and are not interchangeable: one says how far the typical company re-rated, the other how many re-rated at all. Companies without a 2006 listing or without sales in either period are excluded, which is why the counts are below the full index membership.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 09/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇫🇷 $RMS earns 88.2% on capital that costs it 8.4%, the widest economic-profit spread in Europe at +79.8pp. 🇳🇱 $ASML +68.0pp, 🇩🇰 $NOVO +61.1pp. 7 more span +59.7pp to +25.9pp, EU27 ex-financials over EUR15B. midgardfinance.com/screener/

Horizontal ranked bar chart on a dark background titled "Europe’s widest economic-profit spreads: ROIC minus cost of capital." The x-axis is labelled "ROIC minus estimated cost of capital (percentage points)". 10 bars, one per company, running from the smallest spread at the top to the largest at the bottom, each with its value printed at the end of the bar. Reading down the chart: Wolters Kluwer: +25.9 percentage points (29.4% ROIC against an estimated 3.5% cost of capital). BE Semiconductor: +26.3 percentage points (34.3% ROIC against an estimated 8.0% cost of capital). Airbus: +27.9 percentage points (34.5% ROIC against an estimated 6.6% cost of capital). KONE: +28.7 percentage points (35.6% ROIC against an estimated 6.9% cost of capital). Inditex: +30.8 percentage points (38.0% ROIC against an estimated 7.2% cost of capital). IAG: +55.0 percentage points (61.2% ROIC against an estimated 6.2% cost of capital). Christian Dior: +59.7 percentage points (65.0% ROIC against an estimated 5.3% cost of capital). Novo Nordisk: +61.1 percentage points (65.7% ROIC against an estimated 4.6% cost of capital). ASML: +68.0 percentage points (78.4% ROIC against an estimated 10.4% cost of capital). Hermès: +79.8 percentage points (88.2% ROIC against an estimated 8.4% cost of capital). All bars are the same blue and no company is highlighted. The universe is EU27-listed non-financial companies with a true euro market capitalisation of at least 15 billion euros. The footer reads midgardfinance.com in small grey text at the bottom right.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 08/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 The five largest S&P 500 companies are 29.7% of it. It did not climb steadily: 15.6% in 2006, down to 12.1% by 2013, then doubled. 🇪🇺 Europe went the other way: the STOXX 600 top five peaked at 19.2% in 2020 and is 13.5% now. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Line chart of the combined weight of the five largest companies in the S&P 500 and in the STOXX 600, monthly from 2006 to August 2026, in per cent. The S&P 500 line starts at 15.6% in September 2006, drifts down through the financial crisis to a marked low of 12.1% in September 2013, then rises steeply from 2020 onward and ends at 29.7%, having peaked at 30.0% in October 2025. The STOXX 600 line begins in 2010, runs between 13% and 19% for the whole period, peaks at 19.2% in March 2020 and ends at 13.5% having bottomed at 11.4% in 2025. The two lines sit close together until 2017, after which the American line separates upward and the European line drifts down, so the gap at the right edge is more than sixteen percentage points.

021

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 07/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇳🇱 $ASML carries 5.27x more STOXX 600 weight than operating profit, the widest of the 12 biggest. Inditex 2.54x, Novartis 1.65x, Schneider 1.43x. Under 1 means more profit than weight: Total 0.70x, LVMH 0.75x. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Ranked horizontal bar chart titled STOXX 600: weight per unit of operating profit, showing the 12 largest companies in the index. Each bar is the company's share of index market value divided by its share of index operating profit, so a bar past the dashed line at 1.0 means the company carries more of the index's value than of its profit. Bars above 1.0 are violet and those below are green. Reading from the longest: ASML 5.27; Inditex 2.54; Novartis 1.65; Schneider 1.43; L'Oréal 1.42; Hermès 1.40; Santander 1.09; Novo Nordisk 1.06; Roche 0.89; Nestlé 0.83; LVMH 0.75; Total 0.70. ASML is far the highest at 5.27. 4 of the 12 sit below the line and so carry more profit than weight.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 06/09/2026

💉 #pharma Novo's #ziltivekimab cut the inflammation marker 88% in phase 2. That is why it went into a 6,300-patient phase 3. Heart attacks, strokes and CV deaths: 0.99. No change at all. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ 🇩🇰 $NOVO

Two panels about one drug, ziltivekimab. The finding: it did everything it was designed to do to the inflammation marker and nothing to heart attacks. Left panel, a bar chart of the Phase 2 trial RESCUE, showing the median fall in the inflammation marker hsCRP after twelve weeks: placebo 4 per cent, 7.5 mg 77 per cent, 15 mg 88 per cent, 30 mg 92 per cent. The 15 mg bar is highlighted because that is the dose taken into Phase 3. Right panel, the Phase 3 trial ZEUS in over 6,300 patients, showing the hazard ratio for cardiovascular death, heart attack and stroke as a dot with its 95 per cent confidence interval: 0.99, spanning 0.88 to 1.11, straddling the dashed line at 1.0 that marks no effect. The two panels use different scales and are not commensurable; the point is that a near-total suppression of the marker produced no change in events. Phase 2 measured only the marker, never outcomes, which is why the drug entered Phase 3 at all.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 04/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 $MSFT has disclosed #Azure revenue on its own for the first time. It passed Microsoft 365 to become Microsoft's biggest business in the quarter to Mar 2026. $29.4bn a quarter, from $16.0bn two years ago. #XBOX and Windows both shrank. midgardfinance.com/companies/MSFT/

Line chart of Microsoft's 8 product lines by quarterly revenue in US dollars, over the eight quarters ended September 2024 to June 2026, restated under the two-segment structure Microsoft adopts in FY2027. Azure is drawn in blue and Microsoft 365 cloud in purple; the other six lines are grey and labelled at the right. Azure rises from $16.0 billion to $29.4 billion a quarter while Microsoft 365 cloud rises from $20.0 to $26.7, so the two cross in the quarter ended March 2026, marked with a dashed line, where Azure reaches $26.0 billion against $25.4 billion. On a fiscal-year basis Azure is $72.6 billion in FY2025 against Microsoft 365 cloud's $84.6, then $101.9 against $100.3 in FY2026. Azure 16.0 to 29.4 billion; Microsoft 365 cloud 20.0 to 26.7 billion; Productivity and server licensing 8.1 to 11.0 billion; Search and advertising 5.2 to 6.4 billion; Industry solutions 4.5 to 5.3 billion; XBOX 5.6 to 5.0 billion; Windows OEM and devices 4.3 to 4.0 billion; Frontier and support services 1.9 to 2.1 billion. Two lines fall over the period rather than rise: XBOX, from 5.6 to 5.0 billion and Windows OEM and devices, from 4.3 to 4.0 billion. The figures are restated quarterly data from Microsoft's 8-K filed 2026-09-02, which discloses standalone Azure revenue for the first time; the exhibit is not machine-readable, so this quarterly series is not available in any filing database. Microsoft's fiscal year ends in June, and the axis is labelled by calendar quarter end.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 03/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 The 10 biggest S&P 500 companies are 40% of its market value and 29% of its operating profit. 🇪🇺 STOXX 600 top 10: 21% and 15%. America is nearly twice as concentrated, and priced at the same multiple of its profit. Both near 1.35x. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Line chart of the combined market-cap weight of the ten largest companies in each index divided by their combined share of that index's trailing-twelve-month operating profit, smoothed on a twelve-month mean. A dashed line marks 1.0, where weight equals profit. The S&P 500 line begins in 2013 slightly below 1.0, rises steadily through 2016 and 2017, and oscillates between about 1.15 and 1.5 thereafter, ending near 1.39. The STOXX 600 line begins in 2017 around 1.29 and follows a strikingly similar path, peaking above 1.6 in early 2025 before falling to about 1.33. The two lines cross repeatedly and end within a few hundredths of each other, so both indices carry a similar premium despite the S&P 500 top ten being roughly twice the share of their index.

020

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 02/09/2026

💊 #pharma Trikafta is 76.8% of 🇺🇸 $VRTX, the heaviest of the 20 biggest drugmakers. 🇩🇰 $NOVO #semaglutide 72.8%, 🇺🇸 $LLY tirzepatide 64.7%. Eliquis is 35.2% of 🇺🇸 $BMY and 15.6% of 🇺🇸 $PFE: one drug, two books. midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/08/17/pharma-single-molecule-concentration/

120

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 01/09/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 $TSLA carries 13.6x more S&P 500 index weight than operating profit. $AVGO 2.8x $NVDA 1.5x $AAPL 1.3x $MSFT 1.1x Under 1 means more profit than weight: $JPM 0.5x, $META and $MU 0.8x, Berkshire 0.9x. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Ranked horizontal bar chart of the twelve largest companies in the S&P 500 in August 2026. Each bar is the company's share of index market value divided by its share of index trailing-twelve-month operating profit, so a bar past the drawn break-even line at 1.0 means the company carries more of the index's value than of its profits. Tesla is far the largest at 13.6 times and its bar runs off the axis, which stops at 3; Broadcom follows at 2.8, then Nvidia and Amazon at 1.5, Eli Lilly 1.4, Alphabet and Apple 1.3, and Microsoft 1.1. Four companies fall below the line and so carry more profit than weight: Berkshire at 0.9, Meta and Micron at 0.8, and JPMorgan lowest at 0.5.

131

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 31/08/2026

💉 #obesity Roche's #enicepatide lost 22.7% of body weight, edging #Zepbound's 22.5%, for a higher dropout: 7.0% against 6.2%. Its amylin #petrelintide trades half the weight loss for a 4.5% dropout. midgardfinance.com/blog/2026/08/16/obesity-challengers-second-wave-q2-2026/ 🇨🇭 $RO 🇩🇰 $ZEAL

Scatter chart of 17 obesity drugs, weight lost against the share of participants who stopped treatment for adverse events. The horizontal axis is discontinuation, the vertical axis is percentage weight lost; each dot is one asset at its top dose. The 4 challengers are picked out in colour and named with their ticker, the rest of the field is grey. Retatrutide 28.3 per cent weight loss on 11.3 per cent discontinuation; CagriSema 22.7 per cent weight loss on 5.9 per cent discontinuation; Enicepatide 22.7 per cent weight loss on 7.0 per cent discontinuation; Zepbound 22.5 per cent weight loss on 6.2 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy HD 20.7 per cent weight loss on 5.4 per cent discontinuation; Eloralintide 20.1 per cent weight loss on 7.4 per cent discontinuation; UBT251 18.7 per cent weight loss on 4.0 per cent discontinuation; Mazdutide 18.6 per cent weight loss on 2.9 per cent discontinuation; Bofanglutide 17.3 per cent weight loss on 9.4 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy 16.9 per cent weight loss on 7.0 per cent discontinuation; Survodutide 16.6 per cent weight loss on 24.8 per cent discontinuation; Wegovy pill 16.6 per cent weight loss on 6.9 per cent discontinuation; Foundayo 12.4 per cent weight loss on 8.0 per cent discontinuation; Aleniglipron 12.1 per cent weight loss on 10.4 per cent discontinuation; Cagrilintide 11.8 per cent weight loss on 4.0 per cent discontinuation; Elecoglipron 11.8 per cent weight loss on 4.1 per cent discontinuation; Petrelintide 10.7 per cent weight loss on 4.5 per cent discontinuation. These are separate trials at different doses and durations, not head-to-head comparisons. MariTide, Berobenatide, Zenagamtide, VK2735, Ecnoglutide are left off the chart because their discontinuation rates are not dose-comparable with the rest.

021

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/08/2026

📊 #stocks 🇺🇸 The 10 biggest S&P 500 companies are 40% of its market value and 29% of its operating profit. In 2013: 21% of value, 22% of profit. The weight has nearly doubled, the profit share has not. Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon. midgardfinance.com/eu-us-pe/

Line chart from 2013 to August 2026 of the ten largest companies in the S&P 500, showing their combined share of the index's market value against their combined share of its trailing-twelve-month operating profits, in per cent. The two lines start together near 21% in 2013 and stay together until about 2016. The market-value line then rises steadily to 40%, while the profit share rises much less, to 29%, so a shaded gap opens between them, labelled 11 points at the right edge where it is widest. The profit line briefly catches up in 2021, reaching about 29% against 29% for market value, then falls behind again. The gap at the end is roughly eleven percentage points.

010

midgardfinance.com @midgardfinance.com · 30/08/2026

🤖 #AI 🇺🇸 $META's commitments outside the balance sheet, 6 quarters: Dec 2024: $67bn Jun 2026: $628bn $279bn of data centre leases signed but not started, plus $349bn of cloud and server commitments. Balance-sheet debt and leases: $112bn. midgardfinance.com/ai-capex/

Line chart of Meta's off-balance-sheet commitments by quarter from December 2024 to June 2026, in billions of dollars. Two rising lines. Leases signed but not yet commenced go from 34 to 279 billion. Purchase commitments, mostly third-party cloud capacity and servers, go from 33 to 349 billion, crossing above the lease line in the third quarter of 2025 and rising faster after it. Together they go from 67 to 628 billion dollars over 6 quarters, about 9 times. Neither line is a liability on Meta's balance sheet.

010