iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Are you worried about the AI bubble bursting? Do you want to know if AI is already driving productivity growth? Then join us tomorrow at 2pm GMT for a webinar on the economic impacts of AI, primarily dedicated to answering your questions! Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/ai-a...

oxfordeconomics.com

AI and the economy: your questions answered

In this interactive webinar, our economics experts from around the world will cover our latest insights on the impact of AI on economic growth and labour markets, as well as our proprietary upside and...

110

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Join us tomorrow for the next instalment of our Eurozone Research Webinar, this time on the impacts of fiscal policy. We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive. Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...

oxfordeconomics.com

Eurozone Research Webinar: Economic impacts of fiscal policy

In this instalment of our Eurozone research webinar series, we will present our recent research on fiscal positions of various countries in the Eurozone and our assessment of the macroeconomic impact ...

030

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 09/08/2025

What seems to have been happening here is that in order to get the fair to middling improvements in output, it has become necessary to throw much more compute at every query, at a rate which has increased faster than the learning curve for the tokens themselves. That ... ain't good.

25022

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

Ticket barriers at Stansted Airport train station. Is it snowing in hell?

020

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

US tariffs are already having a harmful economic impact in Europe - but you won't see it in traditional data for months. You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July? 1/11

110

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Traditional macroeconomic data is slow - collected at low frequency and released with a long lag. This means that policymakers are effectively flying blind when making decisions. At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem. 1/8

100

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

We take the view that US tariffs are a negative demand shock for Europe. But many have argued there might be adverse supply impacts too. We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data. See our latest research briefing for detail. www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-... 1/10

oxfordeconomics.com

No signs of tariff-induced supply stress – yet

Our proprietary Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator shows that supply stress is still low, even after the US tariff announcement on April 2. Although the impact of tariffs will take time to feed through ...

110

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

Remember the FT chart about European tourist arrivals in the US dropping off a cliff in March? This is him in April. Feel old yet? 1/9

68118

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Jonas Hjort @hjortj.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!

0179

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

What's the impact of trade policy uncertainty? Which countries & sectors are the most exposed to tariffs? Will the EU be hit by Chinese production surplus? We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below. www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...

oxfordeconomics.com

Economic impact of trade wars

President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements since Liberation Day have substantially changed the outlook for the world economy. We discuss our updated forecasts and the risks around it – how strongly...

010

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 20/04/2025

You may have seen this chart doing rounds of Twitter et al, showing that Europeans are not travelling to the US under Trump. The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate. 1/10

121

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Tariffs have been all the rage in the news but the war in Ukraine still rages on. The conflict - and its potential resolution - has important ramifications beyond Ukraine, especially for the CEE region. We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread). 1/8

100

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Join us for our CEE webinar next Monday (Apr 14). The CEE outlook is increasingly driven by external developments, and we'll go through all of them: tariffs, uncertainty, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition and the ceasefire prospects in Ukraine. www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...

oxfordeconomics.com

No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies

The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry, protectionist US trade policy, and overcapacit...

010

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

Few regions are as exposed to the shockwaves in the global economy as the CEE: US tariffs, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition & Russian geopolitical risk. Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar. www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...

oxfordeconomics.com

No shelter from the external storm for Central and Eastern Europe

In this EM webinar, we will explore how these external forces are shaping the CEE’s economic and strategy outlook.

000

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

@respektcz.bsky.social jsem si poprvé předplatil před 15 lety. Tehdy jsem byl ještě na střední škole a ani ve snu by mě nenapadlo, že se někdy objevím hned v úvodní anketě. O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest. www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...

010

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Don’t know about you but I feel liberated

000

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Well at least the starting point for the trade war is good

000

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers. 1/6

194

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Reality check for Tesla in this Lex note from @johnsfoley.bsky.social. "Tesla isn’t valued like a car company...instead, the company’s massive gain since the election and subsequent fall reflects investors’ shifting views on the plausibility of his various moonshots". www.ft.com/content/f287...

3275

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Tariffs don’t have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements (and postponements) by the US have increased trade policy uncertainty, making it less likely that companies will invest. 1/7 Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...

oxfordeconomics.com

Tariffs hurt, even if some are just threats

Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements by the US, followed in some cases by swift postponements, are already increasing tra...

111

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Also, and my God I’m tired of saying this, the state does not “account for 45 per cent of GDP”. About half its spending is transfer payments (mainly pensions) which recipients can spend as they wish. Government spending on goods and services is more like 20% of GDP.

932998

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Watch out for eurozone private consumption (Q4 data out tomorrow). It'll be another 0.7% q/q growth it seems (same as Q3), with most national data already out. Germany stick out like a sore thumb, but the rest doesn't seem too bad. Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.

100

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

The ECB is likely to cut the policy rate again later today. This seems sensible, given easing inflation and fledgeling growth momentum. But our research shows that rate cuts might not be as much of a boost to growth as some hope. 1/6

110

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Alan Rusbridger @arusbridger.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

As the UK raises its defence spending stuartmcgurk.bsky.social investigates the £6bn splashed on two aircraft carriers. It's a monumental piece of reporting www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

prospectmagazine.co.uk

Britain’s aircraft carriers: a national embarrassment?

The Royal Navy’s £6bn carriers have been ridiculed by Russia and others as symbols of British decline and delusion, obsolete in the age of drones and ...

138940

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Here’s a hot take: There’s been a lot of chat about the EU falling behind the US in economic terms. Undoubtedly true - particularly if you look at things like productivity growth, where the US is doing rather well, and (most of) the EU a bit poorly. 1/5

110

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

@budgetlab.bsky.social just published an analysis of an illustrative "reciprocal" US tariff policy that matches foreign tariff & VAT rates on a commodity-by-commodity basis. This excludes currency & trade policy responses but gives a lower-bound impact of such a policy if broadly implemented. 1/9

43018

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Lewis Goodall @lewisgoodall.com · 18/02/2025

Pretty disturbed by some of the Kremlin framing on the Trump talks being bought by parts of the media worldwide. It’s as if the genesis of the war is entirely forgotten. This isn’t a conflict which needs mediation. It was an unprovoked act of aggression. It could end tomorrow if Putin just withdrew.

672616663

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

This is quite frankly amazing. Looks like Trump's promise to get rid of inflation is "credible" at least for some? Of course, it's just a survey response - Republican voters won't act on this (by backloading spending etc).

000

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Yet another thrilling instalment in the gripping series "Things cost money"!

010

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Some early, highly aggregate data on January repricing in the eurozone. The monthly change in HICP was -0.3% m/m. In 2000-2019, the average January change was -0.7% m/m. HOWEVER, that 20 year window had annual inflation average of 1.7%, i.e. below target. Remember that time? Feels ages ago. 1/2

100

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

I can be as critical as anyone of the government's occasionally muddled message on growth but Look! At! This! Chart!! Anything they've done pales next to this GIGANTIC UNFORCED ERROR COMMITTED IN 2016! (fagpacket maths follows) on.ft.com/4hzyvbJ

391896676

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Surveys of households and firms are a staple of high-frequency economic indicators, but they have become less reliable in predicting hard economic data like GDP growth. We analyse this topic in depth in our latest research. Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/eur... 1/13

oxfordeconomics.com

Eurozone: Surveys have become less predictive; what can plug the gap?

Surveys are a staple of high-frequency economic indicators, but they have become less reliable in predicting hard economic data like GDP growth. This feeds macro volatility – markets still interpret s...

100

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 27/01/2025

gilts yields close to their low for the year, so i hope people have got their Takes ready about the surge in investor confidence around Rachel Reeves and the Labour government #watchtheyields

821944

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

"At the start of 2024, Beijing highlighted exports of the “new three” (batteries, solar cells, and #EVs) as part of its high-quality growth strategy. However, mentions of these sectors have become less frequent in policy documents and state media in recent months." rhg.com/research/fro...

rhg.com

From Fast Lane to Gridlock: Have Chinese Car Exports Peaked?

China’s auto industry has been a success story in recent years, with car exports emerging as a bright spot in an otherwise slowing economy. Between 2021 and 2024, the number of cars shipped…

4134

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Here's a glass half-full, glass half-empty look on today's eurozone PMIs. Half full: over 50! But here's something even better. The neutral threshold in the composite PMI~%q/q GDP growth relationship isn't 50 - post-Covid it's 48.1. Today's reading of 50.2 is consistent with 0.3% q/q GDP growth. 1/2

110

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

Flash January PMIs are out on Friday. Markets and many others treat them almost as monthly GDP. Eurozone composite PMI is expected to stay below 50, i.e. contraction. But I'm going to let you in on a little secret - the neutral threshold is not 50. It's closer to 48. 50 actually means decent growth!

137

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

ECB's rate cuts are feeding through - slowly. Intertemporal channel of monetary policy remains intact. Coupled with lending flows to households picking up, this bodes (mildly) well for eurozone consumer spending. But I've seen faster moving icebergs.

000

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

This is interesting - selling price expectations among high earners rose sharply in the last three months, catching up with low earners' price expectations (which never really dropped that low in 2024). Higher earners consume a lot more discretionary services - are they worried? 1/2

100

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

The December round of the Business and Consumer Survey (aka ESI) was not a very happy read. Core inflation expectations (which lead actual core inflation momentum by about 3 months) have picked up. Not dramatically though, predicting core inflation momentum at around 2.4% annualized. 1/2

100

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Look, we all mocked Sir Gav at the time - but really he blazed a trail for the standards of global diplomacy we see today.

It's Sir Gavin Williamson telling Russia to go away.

1131

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Supply pressures in the eurozone declined sharply in the eurozone, despite shipping rates staying elevated. The reason? Inventory build up for industrial goods. Core goods inflation isn't picking up anytime soon folks. And the boost from rate cuts can't come soon enough.

000

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Illia Ponomarenko @ioponomarenko.bsky.social · 04/01/2025

Our long-time colleague, journalist Anastasia Fedchenko, has just lost her beloved husband in this war. Commissioned officer of the Ukrainian Marines, Andriy Kuzmenko, was killed in action defending the country from Russia.

1001720252

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain.

010

Reposted by Thomas Dvorak

Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 17/12/2024

There’s something like a gazillion think pieces contained in this one chart.

2478

Thomas Dvorak @tomdvorak.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

I like the FT, I really do. But this post honestly needs to get in the bin. Please stop obsessing about *decimal* moves in *monthly* numbers! Numbers that, I should add are a) frequently revised, b) survey-based and c) part imputed.

000