Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has. So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post. 020
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/07/2025I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...zeroline.substack.comCan Israel win in Gaza?A Hamas-laid trap killed five Israeli soldiers in Beit Hanoun last week, 18 months after the IDF first declared victory in the town. What explains Israel's apparent failures so far? 010
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 01/07/2025Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.) 010
Reposted by Tom DaleAron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 06/06/2025”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...reuters.comUS-backed Gaza aid group says all distribution sites closed after shootingsThe Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said a reopening date would be announced later and urged residents to stay away from these venues "for their safety." 1106
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 31/05/2025Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c. zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...zeroline.substack.comFragments #2: Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.The second Fragments – a series with few short, sharp articles about what’s been on my mind over the past week or so. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/03/2025Mea culpa: I understood Netanyahu wanted to break the agreement. I am surprised that Trump, having said, "if they respect us, it will hold," is allowing that to happen so flagrantly and so soon. Destroys U.S. credibility as a guarantor. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/03/2025Israel claims to have a "side letter" - these have often accompanied U.S.-mediated agreements signed by Israel - in which *the Biden administration* legitimates its approach. 100
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/03/2025Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing. Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.” 120
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/01/2025When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks. 020
Reposted by Tom DaleAron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 20/01/2025The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation. @jongambrell.bsky.social @apnews.com apnews.com/article/yeme... 0236
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/01/2025Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next. zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...zeroline.substack.comNotes on the ceasefireWhy did it happen? What does it mean? Will it hold? What happens next? 022
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 31/12/2024 Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed. Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture. open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...open.substack.comWhy did Assad fall so fast?The geopolitics of U.S. power, and the Syrian politics of revolution 010
Reposted by Tom DaleBrian Goldstone @brian-goldstone.bsky.social · 26/12/2024An utterly damning and horrific image. 3824271245
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 27/12/2024BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 23/12/2024We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside. www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024... 001
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 21/12/2024A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine. open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...open.substack.comThe BBC's Civil War Over GazaThe BBC is facing an internal revolt over its reporting on Israel’s war on Gaza. Owen Jones investigates. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to... 110
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 18/12/2024One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen. 1194
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 16/12/2024Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 16/12/2024This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion. www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...securityincontext.comEconomic Sanctions on Syria: A Critical Reappraisal 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/12/2024Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...youtube.comSyria & the Fall of Bashar al-Assad - Why Assad's military folded and what's nextYouTube video by Perun 000
Reposted by Tom DaleSteven Heydemann @stevenhyde.bsky.social · 13/12/2024Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading. 171
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 13/12/2024An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria. buff.lyJordan to host Arab, international meetings on developments in SyriaMinisterial meetings to address Syria’s political, security landscape following ouster of Bashar al-Assad regime, says Foreign Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı 122
Reposted by Tom DaleAron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 10/12/2024After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.) @manniefabian.bsky.social www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...timesofisrael.comIDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as neededIsrael says move to capture territory is defensive, intended to be temporary; army says it will hold new positions until situation clears up after fall of Assad regime 55326
Reposted by Tom DaleLeila @leilashami.bsky.social · 08/12/2024The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus. "10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt. "What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response. 10336120
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 08/12/2024A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads. Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution. 020
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 08/12/2024It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment. buff.lySyrian president leaves Damascus on plane as army says his rule ends - reportsThousands of Syrians, in cars and on foot, have congregated at a main square in Damascus, chanting for freedom, according to the Reuters news agency. Thousands also poured into the streets in Homs… 010
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 06/12/20242021 PBS interview with Jolani, well worth your time, covering his upbringing and ideological formation, time in prison, relationship to ISIS and Al-Qaeda and the break with both, consolidating HTS's power within the rebel camp, torture allegations:buff.lyThe Frontline Interview: Abu Mohammad al-JolaniJon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 03/12/2024Useful backgrounder on HTS seizure of Aleppo, and their first day or two of rule there: newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...newlinesmag.comThe Backstory Behind the Fall of AleppoNew Lines reports exclusively on the details leading up to the city's stunning capture 010
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/12/2024What are the best pieces to read or people to talk to on Jolani's political and administrative projects? I.e. how he presents his agenda ideologically as well as state building, and how they've evolved. 000
Reposted by Tom DaleGregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 28/11/2024An enormous toll for Hezbollah: "One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel." www.reuters.com/world/middle...reuters.comStill counting its dead, Hezbollah faces long road to recover from warWith the bodies of its fighters still strewn on the battlefield, Hezbollah must bury its dead and provide succour to its supporters who bore the brunt of Israel's offensive, as the first steps on a long and costly road to recovery, four senior officials said. 22912
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 21/11/2024Much of the worry around nuclear risk in Ukraine concerns unquantifiable increases to the unquantifiable but tiny possibility that something unquantifiably bad will happen. The perfectly-malleable material for anyone's fears, prejudices and fantasies to run wild. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024My guess is that both can be managed by a reduced pace of operations. Meanwhile, Hayman expects that those want to see "re-occupation and settlement" of Gaza will continue to improve their position. 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024Trump's position is decisive over the next four years. If his cabinet picks are a guide, they'll expect to be able to manage the international environment just fine. That leaves the economy and - although Hayman didn't mention it - reservist enthusiasm. 100
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024In the long run, on a strategic level, international pressures will inevitably build. But those sorts of issues have never been a concern of Netanyahu's, and the public won't care either until they bite materially. 100
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024He also expects that it will deepen divisions in Israeli society. For the right and Netanyahu, however these divisions aren't necessarily bad - they benefit from polarisation along the axis of violence against Palestinians. And so far, meaningful international pressure has been low to non-existent. 110
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024Maj. Gen. (res) Hayman is coming from what passes for the liberal wing of Israeli politics. He argues that a years-long semi-occupation of Gaza with periodic raids to gradually wear down Hamas will strain Israel's economy and international standing, plus place the hostages at further risk. 100
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024The former head of IDF military intelligence has written an assessment of Israel's plan for Gaza; its advantages and disadvantages. Short version: the plan is indefinite chaos. Slightly longer version: www.mako.co.il/news-columns...mako.co.ilN12 - ישראל החליטה: צה"ל יישאר בעזה בשנים הקרובותמניתוח פעילות צה"ל ואופן הנוכחות הקבועה ברצועת עזה, התשובה לשאלה הגדולה הולכת ומתבהרת - יש לנו תוכנית למלחמה, "הסיום המתמשך", וכדאי שהציבור ייחשף אליה • ראש אמ"ן לשעבר תמיר הימן, פרשנות 110
Reposted by Tom DaleLouisa Loveluck @leloveluck.bsky.social · 19/11/2024This story by my @washingtonpost.com colleagues about the toll of Israel's air war on Lebanon's children is devastating. "The bodies of the adults had long since been retrieved. Pieces of the children, though, were still being found everywhere." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...washingtonpost.comIsrael’s war on Hezbollah takes terrible toll on Lebanon’s childrenAt least 231 children have been killed and 1,330 injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. 13536
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Also, this was a successful attempt to use a third party app, Buffer, to post simultaneously to Twitter/X, BlueSky, and Threads. 020
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Last night I saw No Other Land, the documentary about Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Masafer Yatta in the southern Hebron Hills. It hits really hard, and took me back to the time I spent in the West Bank. Go and see it if you can. buff.lyNo Other Land - Official UK TrailerFor half a decade, Basel Adra, a Palestinian activist, films his community of Masafer Yatta being destroyed by Israel's occupation, as he builds an unlikely ... 06429
Reposted by Tom Dale Xun-ling Au 歐迅灵 🏴 @xunlingau.bsky.social · 14/11/2024Can't find an English source yet but it is concerning that the Junta in Myanmar & China are setting up a joint private military company to protect Chinese interests in Myanmar. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar bur.mizzima.com/2024/11/13/3...bur.mizzima.com 0113
Reposted by Tom DaleAlbert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Hello! Its time. Cracks knuckles... its polycrisisblueskytime @katemac.bsky.social @phenomenalworld.bsky.social @thepolycrisis.bsky.social 1111021
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 14/11/2024I would have been for a Harris vote in any swing state. But if everyone who was voting primarily on Gaza did so then, all else held equal, it would a) highly-likely have made no difference to the outcome, and b) have made that bloc much easier to take for granted in any future, marginal election. 000
Reposted by Tom DalePaweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/11/2024French-manufactured military technology incorporated into armoured personnel carriers made by the United Arab Emirates is being used on the battlefield in Sudan what is a violation of the UN arms embargo on Darfur, Amnesty said in a new investigation www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...amnesty.orgSudan: French-manufactured weapons system identified in conflict – new investigationFrench-manufactured military technology incorporated into armoured personnel carriers made by the United Arab Emirates is being used on the battlefield in Sudan in what likely constitutes a violation ... 1223
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 14/11/2024I wrote recently about Yahya Sinwar: zeroline.substack.com/p/the-traged... And, before that, about some of my personal and political conclusions from my time in Rafah: zeroline.substack.com/p/tragedy-a-...zeroline.substack.comThe tragedy of Yahya SinwarYahya Sinwar has reshaped the Middle East, and his legacy will echo for decades. Who was he? Why did he initiate the 7 October attacks in the manner that he did? How will he be judged? 000
Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Excellent advice. Worthwhile politics arises from an attitude of responsibility, which entails a primary concern for consequences. A politics of self-expression - which, let's face it, is much of what activist politics is - is ultimately arid. 050