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Tom Dale

@tom-d.bsky.social
512 followers 395 following 56 posts

Writer, researcher: global politics, conflict, civilian protection: zeroline.substack.com Previously from Libya, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon. @tom_d_ on X.

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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has. So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...
zeroline.substack.com
Can Israel win in Gaza?
A Hamas-laid trap killed five Israeli soldiers in Beit Hanoun last week, 18 months after the IDF first declared victory in the town. What explains Israel's apparent failures so far?
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.)
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
US-backed Gaza aid group says all distribution sites closed after shootings
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said a reopening date would be announced later and urged residents to stay away from these venues "for their safety."
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c. zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...
zeroline.substack.com
Fragments #2: Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.
The second Fragments – a series with few short, sharp articles about what’s been on my mind over the past week or so.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing. Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation. @jongambrell.bsky.social @apnews.com apnews.com/article/yeme...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next. zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...
zeroline.substack.com
Notes on the ceasefire
Why did it happen? What does it mean? Will it hold? What happens next?
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed. Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture. open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...
open.substack.com
Why did Assad fall so fast?
The geopolitics of U.S. power, and the Syrian politics of revolution
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Brian Goldstone @brian-goldstone.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
An utterly damning and horrific image.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside. www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine. open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...
open.substack.com
The BBC's Civil War Over Gaza
The BBC is facing an internal revolt over its reporting on Israel’s war on Gaza. Owen Jones investigates.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion. www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...
securityincontext.com
Economic Sanctions on Syria: A Critical Reappraisal
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...
youtube.com
Syria & the Fall of Bashar al-Assad - Why Assad's military folded and what's next
YouTube video by Perun
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Steven Heydemann @stevenhyde.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.
buff.ly
Jordan to host Arab, international meetings on developments in Syria
Ministerial meetings to address Syria’s political, security landscape following ouster of Bashar al-Assad regime, says Foreign Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.) @manniefabian.bsky.social www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...
timesofisrael.com
IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as needed
Israel says move to capture territory is defensive, intended to be temporary; army says it will hold new positions until situation clears up after fall of Assad regime
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Leila @leilashami.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus. "10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt. "What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads. Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment.
buff.ly
Syrian president leaves Damascus on plane as army says his rule ends - reports
Thousands of Syrians, in cars and on foot, have congregated at a main square in Damascus, chanting for freedom, according to the Reuters news agency. Thousands also poured into the streets in Homs…
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
2021 PBS interview with Jolani, well worth your time, covering his upbringing and ideological formation, time in prison, relationship to ISIS and Al-Qaeda and the break with both, consolidating HTS's power within the rebel camp, torture allegations:
buff.ly
The Frontline Interview: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani
Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Useful backgrounder on HTS seizure of Aleppo, and their first day or two of rule there: newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...
newlinesmag.com
The Backstory Behind the Fall of Aleppo
New Lines reports exclusively on the details leading up to the city's stunning capture
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
What are the best pieces to read or people to talk to on Jolani's political and administrative projects? I.e. how he presents his agenda ideologically as well as state building, and how they've evolved.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
An enormous toll for Hezbollah: "One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel." www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Still counting its dead, Hezbollah faces long road to recover from war
With the bodies of its fighters still strewn on the battlefield, Hezbollah must bury its dead and provide succour to its supporters who bore the brunt of Israel's offensive, as the first steps on a long and costly road to recovery, four senior officials said.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Much of the worry around nuclear risk in Ukraine concerns unquantifiable increases to the unquantifiable but tiny possibility that something unquantifiably bad will happen. The perfectly-malleable material for anyone's fears, prejudices and fantasies to run wild.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
The former head of IDF military intelligence has written an assessment of Israel's plan for Gaza; its advantages and disadvantages. Short version: the plan is indefinite chaos. Slightly longer version: www.mako.co.il/news-columns...
mako.co.il
N12 - ישראל החליטה: צה"ל יישאר בעזה בשנים הקרובות
מניתוח פעילות צה"ל ואופן הנוכחות הקבועה ברצועת עזה, התשובה לשאלה הגדולה הולכת ומתבהרת - יש לנו תוכנית למלחמה, "הסיום המתמשך", וכדאי שהציבור ייחשף אליה • ראש אמ"ן לשעבר תמיר הימן, פרשנות
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Louisa Loveluck @leloveluck.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This story by my @washingtonpost.com colleagues about the toll of Israel's air war on Lebanon's children is devastating. "The bodies of the adults had long since been retrieved. Pieces of the children, though, were still being found everywhere." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...
washingtonpost.com
Israel’s war on Hezbollah takes terrible toll on Lebanon’s children
At least 231 children have been killed and 1,330 injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Also, this was a successful attempt to use a third party app, Buffer, to post simultaneously to Twitter/X, BlueSky, and Threads.
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Last night I saw No Other Land, the documentary about Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Masafer Yatta in the southern Hebron Hills. It hits really hard, and took me back to the time I spent in the West Bank. Go and see it if you can.
buff.ly
No Other Land - Official UK Trailer
For half a decade, Basel Adra, a Palestinian activist, films his community of Masafer Yatta being destroyed by Israel's occupation, as he builds an unlikely ...
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Xun-ling Au 歐迅灵 🏴 @xunlingau.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Can't find an English source yet but it is concerning that the Junta in Myanmar & China are setting up a joint private military company to protect Chinese interests in Myanmar. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar bur.mizzima.com/2024/11/13/3...
bur.mizzima.com
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Hello! Its time. Cracks knuckles... its polycrisisblueskytime @katemac.bsky.social @phenomenalworld.bsky.social @thepolycrisis.bsky.social
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
I would have been for a Harris vote in any swing state. But if everyone who was voting primarily on Gaza did so then, all else held equal, it would a) highly-likely have made no difference to the outcome, and b) have made that bloc much easier to take for granted in any future, marginal election.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
French-manufactured military technology incorporated into armoured personnel carriers made by the United Arab Emirates is being used on the battlefield in Sudan what is a violation of the UN arms embargo on Darfur, Amnesty said in a new investigation www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...
amnesty.org
Sudan: French-manufactured weapons system identified in conflict – new investigation
French-manufactured military technology incorporated into armoured personnel carriers made by the United Arab Emirates is being used on the battlefield in Sudan in what likely constitutes a violation ...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Excellent advice. Worthwhile politics arises from an attitude of responsibility, which entails a primary concern for consequences. A politics of self-expression - which, let's face it, is much of what activist politics is - is ultimately arid.
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Casus Belli: Ukraine 2014 | 🔱⚒️🌅 @doctoradmiral.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
"'Today we fought them off, but tomorrow idk' - this I hear from one of the most motivated soldiers I know. Donate to fundraisers, the situation right now is literally the worst, and it will get even worse"
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
I wrote about Yahya Sinwar: his strengths and flaws, why he initiated the 7 October attacks/Al-Aqsa Flood in the manner that he did, how to judge his legacy today, and what we can learn from comparing him to David Ben Gurion. zeroline.substack.com/p/the-traged...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
I wrote about Yahya Sinwar: his strengths and flaws, why he initiated the 7 October attacks/Al-Aqsa Flood in the manner that he did, how to judge his legacy today, and what we can learn from comparing him to David Ben Gurion. zeroline.substack.com/p/the-traged...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 15/10/2024
I'm not on here much, but I write a newsletter about war, international politics, and political ideas. You can check it out here: zeroline.substack.com
zeroline.substack.com
Zero Line | Tom Dale | Substack
Modern conflict, international relations, and political ideas about them both. The Middle East and sometimes further afield. Click to read Zero Line, by Tom Dale, a Substack publication. Launched 16 d...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 16/03/2024
21 years ago today, the IDF killed my friend Rachel Corrie as she defended a Palestinian home in Rafah, Gaza. As a deadly assault on Rafah looms, I wrote about her legacy for @jacobinmag.bsky.social jacobin.com/2024/03/rach...
jacobin.com
Rachel Corrie Gave Her Life for Rafah
This day in 2003, the IDF killed American activist Rachel Corrie as she defended homes in Rafah from destruction. As Israel threatens to invade the city, a volunteer who stood alongside Rachel writes ...
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 09/02/2024
The key question gripping British politics: is Keir Starmer ruthlessly committed to misleading the public in order to win power (good) or is he absolutely sincere about what he believes (bad)?
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Tom Dale @tom-d.bsky.social · 18/11/2023
Word-for-word transcription of independent mediator Gershon Baskin's messages to-and-from Hamas official Ghazi Hamad in the wake of 7/10 re negotiating release of hostages, cessation of violence. Other channels were working, so this will be part of the story. blogs.timesofisrael.com/negotiations...
blogs.timesofisrael.com
Negotiations for Hostages
From the blog of Gershon Baskin at The Times of Israel
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Brooke @brooklynmarie.bsky.social · 16/11/2023
Los Angeles Times editorial board:
latimes.com
Editorial: Cease-fire now. The killing in Gaza must stop
Israel's quest to root out Hamas has inflicted an unacceptable level of loss on Palestinian civilians. Humanitarian pauses are no longer enough.
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