Sign in

Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺

@saladinaldronni.bsky.social
8.4K followers 123 following 1.4K posts

Researcher. Polish voice on terror, conflicts, crime networks, Islamic State, al-Qaeda. Now, also following Islamic State's plans in Africa. Politics in the Sahel. Writing for hire. DM. @saladinaldronni on X/Twitter ko-fi.com/saladinaldronni

PostsRepliesMedia
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 1h
People don't understand there doesn't exist a binary Strait open/closed which roughly means US wins/Iran loses or Iran wins and US loses. Just as they don't understand US may have opened the strait with massive effort and it remains difficult for world economies still.
2287
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 5h
Been a while I saw someone steal my post in a brazen way, on Twitter doesn't really work since I am too big there and people are scared. Usually I write a random word or sentence into what an outlet initially had in headlines, here it's "but was hired irregardless of that". Heh, lazy fkers.
1364
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 8h
Quite interesting questions re that flight now appear. Multiple outlets confirmed the Oman ban, the man was born in UAE, his mother is Syrian. Was apparently kicked out of Omani Airlines in February 2025, then joined Moroccan but may have also been kicked.
1246
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 18h
The FlyDubai co-pilot who stabbed his captain and sent Flight 1073 diving toward the ground had previously been banned from flying by Oman over concerns he had adopted radical ideological views, but was hired irregardless of that. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Exclusive | FlyDubai Attacker Had Been Banned From Flying by Oman for Radical Views
The U.A.E. airline later hired the co-pilot who stabbed the captain of Flight 1073 and nearly crashed the plane.
410616
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 20h
In the text, out of nowhere, there is a claim about massive Pakistani army deployment, ranging between 30-40 k troops inside Saudi Arabia. Now, this is something, but I'd like more outlets to confirm an info of this caliber.
2366
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21h
Saudi Arabia is planning a multi front offensive in Yemen soon, mobilizing dozens of thousands of Yemenis in upcoming weeks, considering a push to kick Houthis out of Bab el Mandeb or reverse the group's gains in governates where heavy clashes are ongoing. www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
reuters.com
Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold
Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multip...
2314
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Ethiopia and Eritrea shutting down embassies today, Egypt a bit later degrading relations in retaliation of Ethiopia's move, tells much of how the whole region sees the war and greater crisis with Sudan and Somalia. All while UAE airforce is seen everyday supplying Addis. Grim.
3387
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Representatives of the Syrian government and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have held face-to-face talks in Turkey to try to calm tensions ​between them, according to six sources briefed on the first known meeting between the longtime foes. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Syrian government officials and Hezbollah held secret talks in Turkey, sources say
Representatives of the Syrian government and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have held face-to-face talks to try to calm tensions ​between them — the first known meeting between the longtime foes.
1261
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Islamic State jihadists are currently storming Tahoua city en masse, likely a second assault on the airport is the plan. So it begins. #Niger
48217
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Reiterating myself - Democrats are in for a grim surprise what they will be inheriting. Two years is a long time, but IRGC has never felt the risk of losing power as much as this year. Diplomacy is a smoke screen for their war build up amid crisis at home. So they will attack.
2284
Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
If you think of what I do valuable, consider supporting in some ways as depicted below, substack, paypal, even if one coffee. Any help always appreciated, and I am thankful for anyone who decided to pledge something monthly. ko-fi.com/saladinaldro...
ko-fi.com
Buy Paweł Wójcik a Coffee
Become a supporter of Paweł Wójcik today!
0232
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
In new article at @WarFrontsWeekly I cover the recent Central Mali campaign by JNIM and what to make of that. As suggested also in thread below, it's another stage in a series that can be traced to the coups in 2022-2023. Russia and Mali are in trouble. fronts.co/article/mali...
fronts.co
Mali's Conflict is Nearing Crisis Point. Here's What Comes Next.
JNIM's capture of Kidal and tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink — but Islamic State Sahel's rivalry.
1449
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We are entering the last three months of this year, which so happen to coincide with the end of the rainy season - the dynamics are bound to increase to a degree I actually wonder what may appear. Al-Qaeda, Russia and Islamic State all have a decision to make. Strange trio.
2265
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I intend to publish a new post tommorow on recent Islamic State arrests that I find interesting in Europe, Caucasus, ME and Afghanistan. There has been quite a few and are significant enough to say something on dynamics.
0242
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Seven Russian soldiers were killed by JNIM in the north of Niono today, in what is a part of the great scramble for Central Mali this month. In recent few weeks, JNIM has been pounding Russians and the regime forces every day - massive casualties of Bamako side. Thread later.
1245
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
US forces exit Iraq after two decades, leaving opening for Iran and Islamic State - www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
US forces exit Iraq after two decades, leaving opening for Iran
The departure is celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies ​who now have deep influence in the country where 4,500 Americans died during more than two decades of war.
2277
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Islamic State today clashed with Iraqi forces in Altun Kupri, Kirkuk, some civilians have allegedly been hit in crossfire, two terrorists killed. In other part of Kirkuk, IS used mortars and killed a woman + wounded a few civilians. They are slowly appearing more often.
0252
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Taliban says 28 fighters were killed and 32 wounded after an attempted crossing to the province of Nuristan from Pakistan, some from the group is alleged to belong to the Islamic State. Taliban accuses Pakistan of supporting anti-Kabul groups. www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
reuters.com
Afghanistan says 28 fighters killed after crossing from Pakistan
Afghanistan's defence ministry said on Sunday its forces had killed 28 fighters and wounded 32 in the eastern province ​of Nuristan after a group it said included Islamic ‌State militants crossed from...
0230
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Police declare major incident at UK's Fairford air base, used by US air forces with multiple vehicles arriving on site- www.reuters.com/world/uk/sec...
reuters.com
Police declare major incident at UK's Fairford air base, used by US air forces
British police said on Sunday they had arrested several men on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act ​and the army was examining a number of vehicles after security was ‌stepped up at a Briti...
0224
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Funniest headline I've read this year got to admit
0394
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
State Security Service of Georgia arrest two Georgians for joining the Islamic State and pledging allegiance to the Caliph sovanews.tv/en/2026/09/2...
sovanews.tv
Two citizens detained in Georgia over ties to Islamic State
Officers of the State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) have detained two Georgian citizens on charges of joining a foreign terrorist organization and aiding
1231
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Royal Canadian Mounted Police arrested a 24-year old in Quebec, was in contact with Islamic State and was researching the possibility of building chemical weapon. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
cbc.ca
RCMP say Quebec man researched chemical weapons, planned attack for ISIS | CBC News
RCMP say Louay Angoud allegedly communicated online with members of a terrorist group and gathered information to build a chemical weapon that could be used to poison Canadians.
0296
Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
As announced a few days ago, time for a major undusting of my substack - with a very long read on Syria as I see it today. Hopefully it would be interesting for some, welcome any subs and shares. Link below. saladinaldronni.substack.com/p/syria-almo...
39325
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Syrian ISIS member arrested in Lebanon over alleged plot to assassinate Pope Leo XIV during his 2025 visit, was in contact with Islamic State leadership in Syria www.italpress.com/syrian-isis-...
italpress.com
Syrian ISIS member arrested in Lebanon over alleged plot to assassinate Pope Leo XIV during his 2025 visit
Sources familiar with the case said that the Syrian leadership had instructed him to carry out the attack, but that he was unable to move to the operational stage due to a lack of resources.
0171
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by China has helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US bases, part of a dramatic improvement in Iranian targeting capabilities over the past several months edition.cnn.com/2026/09/25/p...
edition.cnn.com
Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say | CNN Politics
Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups has helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US military bases in the Middle East, part ...
0213
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Number of Sudanese fleeing to Chad surges 20-fold as aid runs dry, UN says, 400 Sudanese escape into Chad weekly www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
Number of Sudanese fleeing to Chad surges 20-fold as aid runs dry, UN says
There has been a sharp increase in the number of people fleeing from Sudan to Chad to escape fighting and ​dire conditions, and aid funding is failing to keep up with ‌needs, the United Nations refuge...
0180
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Internet and phone network disrupted in Ethiopia's war-hit Tigray region, affter Tigray government ordered operators to shut down connection amid new war against Ethiopia www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
Internet and phone network disrupted in Ethiopia's war-hit Tigray region
Internet and phone networks were disrupted in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray on Friday, after ‌fighting broke out this week between the federal military and Tigrayan forces in the most seriou...
1202
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Pakistani security forces foiled an attempted cross-border attack in the Gulistan area on Friday with killing several Afghan Taliban fighters during an exchange of fire according to Pakistani security sources. www.businesstimes-bd.com/internationa...
businesstimes-bd.com
Pakistani Forces Kill Afghan Taliban Fighters in Escalating Border Clash
Pakistani security forces foiled an attempted cross-border attack in the Gulistan area on Friday with killing several Afghan Taliban fighters
1181
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Saudi Grand Mufti tells troops to be ready to sacrifice their lives fighting Houthis Saudi Arabia's top religious authority called on soldiers in the kingdom to be ready to lay ‌down their lives to fight the Houthis until the group is ousted from power. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Saudi Grand Mufti tells troops to be ready to sacrifice their lives fighting Houthis
Saudi Arabia's top religious authority called on soldiers in the kingdom to be ready to lay ‌down their lives to fight the Iran-backed Houthis until the group is ousted from power, a statement posted ...
2354
Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In a new article at @WarFrontsWeekly I have something to say about the recent revelations on the Ukraine's African adventure and the Malian one in particular. I personally don't like it as you know - and say why. My opinion below. fronts.co/article/ukra...
fronts.co
Ukraine's Intervention in the Sahel is Hurting Russia. It's also Destabilising the Region.
A handful of Ukrainian trainers embedded with Mali's Tuareg rebels are fighting Russia's Africa Corps — but their allies include al-Qaeda's JNIM, and Kyiv's.
2364
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday, September 24, that France would send military assets, soldiers, radars, and defense systems to help protect the key Saudi port of Yanbu for oil exports following attacks by Yemen's Houthis. www.lemonde.fr/en/france/ar...
lemonde.fr
France to send 'military means' to protect Saudi oil port, Macron says
Macron emphasized that the French military did not intend to take part in any fighting, during a prime-time television interview.
0141
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
As announced a few days ago, time for a major undusting of my substack - with a very long read on Syria as I see it today. Hopefully it would be interesting for some, welcome any subs and shares. Link below. saladinaldronni.substack.com/p/syria-almo...
39325
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In a new article at @WarFrontsWeekly I have something to say about the recent revelations on the Ukraine's African adventure and the Malian one in particular. I personally don't like it as you know - and say why. My opinion below. fronts.co/article/ukra...
fronts.co
Ukraine's Intervention in the Sahel is Hurting Russia. It's also Destabilising the Region.
A handful of Ukrainian trainers embedded with Mali's Tuareg rebels are fighting Russia's Africa Corps — but their allies include al-Qaeda's JNIM, and Kyiv's.
2364
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
According to initial reports, Séváre in Mali is again under the attack of JNIM, just a few days after the drone swarm, artillery put the Turkish drones operational system under pressure. JNIM has also recently claimed attacked near the border with Guinea and Burkina Faso.
1214
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A Ukrainian stabbed five people at an abbey in Poland, one priest is dead, four other including two priests are heavily injured. Today is going to be a long day. Inevitable in a way.
1463
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
So, just a few weeks ago a significant part of the frontline troops of the Nigerien army rebelled and were very close to succeeding in their Niamey storm. The cause? Islamic State rampage and catastrophic casualties. Massive arrests and purges followed and are still ongoing.
17212
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Ethiopia vs Tigray/rebels Ethiopia vs Egypt Ethiopia vs Erithrea Ethiopia vs Sudan Sudan vs UAE and RSF Sudan vs Chad Libya vs Niger vs Chad vs Sudan Somalia and Turkey vs Israel Saudi vs UAE Saudi vs Houthi vs Yemen vs Iran Al-Qaeda vs Islamic State vs Sahel Puntland vs AQ vs IS
45514
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I an parroting myself quite often (feeling like an old man atp) but people underestimate how much of an obstacle is the Islamic State to JNIM's strategy in Mali. I personally think Bamako would have fallen at the very last last year, if not for al-Qaeda fearful of ISGS sword.
2281
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Today, the true war in Ethiopia has begun. And it's only one of many that are about to restart. Most of them will also be converged, with players fighting their civil war interfering in another. Nobody sane to stop this. This is what most of the world cheered for. Good luck.
36716
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Another day, another Russian losses in Mali. This month is getting increasingly awful for the Russian contingent.Not yet the same scale as it was in April or July, but JNIM's new creeping strategy in Central Mali is something Bamako and Russia are struggling heavily against #Mali
26410
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Togo: A member of a Chadian armed group arrested for unpaid hotel bills www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
rfi.fr
Togo: un cadre d’un groupe armé tchadien arrêté pour des nuits d’hôtel impayées
Le Tchadien Luc Beyam, secrétaire général du Mouvement pour la paix, la reconstruction et le développement se trouve en détention à Lomé depuis le 17 septembre. Fondé en 2025, ce groupe armé actif dan...
0171
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Talked with @democritus_wri a few days ago, trying to make sense on what is going on in the Sahel and beyond, a lot of Libya found its way inevitably since Saddam Haftar has grown to the extent Niger fears him. Quite a long podcast but for interested here. fronts.co/podcast/due-...
fronts.co
Due South: Paweł Wójcik on the Sahel Security Crisis.
Fronts podcast coverage of Due South: Paweł Wójcik on the Sahel Security Crisis, with context on conflict, defense, and security.
0170
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Dla polskiej widowni - w środę o 11.45 jestem zaproszony do Radia Wnet, będzie rozmowa o Mali i Nigrze. Później zawsze jest audio nagrane do odtwarzania jak ktos jest chętny, zazwyczaj to chyba 10 minut trwa z tego co pamiętam.
073
Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Mohammad bin Salman's head must be spinning from all this www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
2546
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Jihadists killed more ​than 100 soldiers in central Mali this month, two sources said, while the army ‌said it had evacuated troops from the camp under attack and struck enemy positions during a retaliatory operation lasting more than a week. www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
Al Qaeda-linked militants kill more than 100 Malian soldiers in attack this month, sources say
Jihadists killed more ​than 100 soldiers in central Mali this month, two sources said, while the army ‌said it had evacuated troops from the camp under attack and struck enemy positions during a retal...
0163
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Ceuta: Thousands of migrants left to fend for themselves and a tightening of security measures www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...
rfi.fr
Ceuta: des milliers de migrants livrés à eux-mêmes et un renforcement des mesures de sécurité
Presque deux mois après la migration massive de plus de 70 000 personnes depuis le Maroc vers Ceuta, les 30 et 31 juillet, des appels à traverser la frontière continuent d’être diffusés sur les réseau...
1150
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Houthi fighters were pushing to seize strategic heights in Yemen on Monday to cut off the Red Sea coast from remaining areas held ​by Saudi-backed forces, after a report that President Donald Trump had called off US strikes on the group at the last minute. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Houthis push for control of Yemen highlands as Trump reported to have called off airstrikes
Houthi fighters were pushing to seize strategic heights in Yemen to cut off the Red Sea coast from remaining areas held ​by Saudi-backed forces, after a report that President Donald Trump had called o...
28418
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
So, anyway, if anyone from here is on that Meta copycat of Twitter, I decided to expand and remain there. Doesn't hurt to try I guess. www.threads.com/@saladinaldr...
threads.com
Paweł Wójcik (@saladinaldronni) • Threads, Say more
6 Followers • 2 Threads • Independent analyst. Jihadism, terrorism, security, IR. Sahel, ME. Wrote for Foreign Policy, Hudson, Jamestown, fronts. Objective analysis. See the latest conversations...
3160
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
JNIM has also published the drone view of one particular hit but remains to be seen the true extent of damage done to the base - every loss of Turkish drones adds up to the threat of major JNIM offensive that is looming on the horizon once again.
3314
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
JNIM claims the rumored drone swarm in Sevare Air Base, where Turkey regularly resupplies located there Akincis and Bayraktars. According to al-Qaeda affiliate, 4 Ak/TB + a few helicopters were hit by mortars damaging them, drone control platform and radar were destroyed. #Mali
1305