iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Timothy Raben

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 4m

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 20h

I remember spending hours w/collabs arguing which color is better, which section this statement should be, if this discussion should be in the intro vs conclusion, etc. My experience with LLM writing is they can't get anywhere near this unless you painstakingly prompt them (akin to previous editing)

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 20h

oh 150% cosign! Maybe another good analogy is the stuff I see posted looks like my old *first drafts* of collaborative papers, whereas what actually ends up on arxiv is actually edited to be readable, tell a story, be clear, be precise, etc.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 20h

They are admittedly better than this, but they remind me a lot of middle/early high schoolers who are learning to write longer assignments and are just trying to pad things out (maybe to get a word count). They keep going on and on, and circling around their point without just getting to it.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 22h

I used to do lattice field theory with Wilson Fermions! This is cool! Will be interested to see if someone can actually formulate this on the lattice. #QCD #lattice #QFT

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Addendum from another group of academic mathematicians: bsky.app/profile/aepo...

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I've always been partial to elves for that +2 dex, but I'm starting to come around to tieflings and their +2 char: I do love playing a sorcerer.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

bsky.app/profile/maxk.... This is very much my feeling

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Reposted by Timothy Raben

Law360 @law360.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A former FBI agent has come forward with a claim that when U.S. Circuit Judge Emil Bove was at the U.S. Department of Justice, he directed the Los Angeles field office to illegally investigate protesters. www.law360.com/artic...

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Yeah i mean any comp field is def coming soon. Im already seeing it in comp bio. And I'll even admit im using it to do some hobby/side computational projects outside hard science just for fun but also to better get a handle on the models.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Small, small baby step in the right direction agmai.org/general-sep29/ Results seem impressive though. Will be curious to see how many solutions were already in their training data, but that's gonna be impossible to work out unless someone cops to having already put their results into OAI.

agmai.org

general-sep29

Responsible Release of AI-Generated Mathematics September 29, 2026 Back to main page Download PDF At present, some frontier AI labs are testing advanced mathematical problems on proprietary models …

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

They claim in their announcement they are taking advice from a group of academic math advisors now and have 3 principles they strive for. Dumping the results is one principle but dont thinkve gotten to 2 or 3 yet where they try to put these results in context and make sure they are human understood.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I thought this was fanfiction before that coda.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I guess it's a step in the right direction but m still feels like it's just a bunch of results w/o the human understanding part. That's the part mathematicians were seemingly upset about. Impressive results tho! Let's wait and see how many were already in their training data github.com/openai/math

github.com

GitHub - openai/math

Contribute to openai/math development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

They have an advisory group of academics they are taking advice from. It looks like the background section says they will abide by 3 main goals. This release seems to be just the first one. I think goals 2 and 3 are the important ones for academics.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Isn't this explicitly what a bunch of math academics asked OAI to stop doing? Just dumping results on the internet without actual mathematical understanding and context?

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Is this the lawsuit where Blackburn contends phone logs are covered by the speech and debate clause? Ive never understood that claim.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I'm biased because I generally like superhero stuff more the smaller the stakes are so making it more small town mystery as opposed to universe ending apocalypse was right up my alley.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Thought it was a great finish to the series! I actually appreciated a show with a different pace of "action" like that. Felt things were properly foreshadowed and not just completely resolved out of left field. I thought it was fun!

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Reposted by Timothy Raben

Abdel Abdellaoui @dr-appie.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

New collaboration between @sangerinstitute.bsky.social & @amsterdamumc.bsky.social in @natgenet.nature.com! Largest study to date on associations between DNA & intelligence. We reduce ascertainment bias & boost power by imputing missing scores in @ukbiobank.ac.uk www.nature.com/articles/s41... 👇🏽

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Really cool work! Cognitive & psych phenotypes are a little out of my wheelhouse. Can you tell the relative feature importance to imputation just by correlation w/Fluid Int? Do you have examples of features that naively seemed important to impute but turned out to be more tied to other trait?

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Ah gotcha. I thought you meant short term, i.e. before 2029, needing a veto override, etc. Ya I'm with you on this.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Im torn. I think it absolutely moves the needle with the public, but im not sure it convinces people like Fetterman, Murkowski, etc. whose votes would be needed. In the short term, a court expansion bill would have to get over the filibuster, right?

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

He also packed the state supreme court.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Schmitt brought up that the wade Willis affair broke the day after the game, trying to insinuate Smith was involved. Mind you, within hours of the accusation today, people found footage of smith at the iowa/md game.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Sorry dont mean to be pedantic or condescending, it's just hard with a character limit.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One view of the court is that they are aware of national politics and act on it. That if dems take congress the court might feel emboldened to back trump because on the whole govt will look like they arent fully on board. If gop keeps congress court might feel they have to check trump.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

2013-2014 Liverpool came second by 2 points. This would have been Gerrard's first and only prem title. I'll never not be salty.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think they sorta screwed themselves with that when they did that ant man movie with a million Kangs and they all look identical

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It did not, but Walker, Rao, and Katsas seem all in on the govt position despite that.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I don't think Shumate ever answered Millett's question about referrals of cabinet members vs others *WITHOUT* referencing title 42. She tried to get him to address it again, but if I heard correctly he brought up 42 to qualify every single answer.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It's also clear that there is no planet, galaxy, or universe in which Rao and Walker don't vote for the gov't.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I agree with that statement, but it doesn't seem like anyone is focused too much on the delays and playing games with filling timings. I'm worried this just goes back to the district court and ends up back here in another 8 months.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Rao is getting testy that the other judges won't let her direct this hearing and try to save the govt.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I listen to a lot of these arguments and I can't remember the last time I heard one judge (Rao) try to defend the appellant and answer another judge's (Pan's) question and the chief (Srinivasan) had to step in and tell Rao that the appellant should answer the questions.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

You mean they are posting it as some sort of "unbiased truth"? I generally agree with your view but find it helpful to know "this is how and how strongly the online right thinks things will shake out "

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Reposted by Timothy Raben

Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

NYC’s congestion pricing program cut ambulance travel times by over a minute

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Generally no but outside rush times/surge pricing they can be reasonable.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Can I just assume that suit in your avatar is one of those faux suit dickeys like they use for senior photos?

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I mean there is also Walker. I think it's just those 3 and then they randomly bring in citizens like jury duty to round out panels.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Always remember Everton got 10 pt deduction and I don't think the cases are even remotely comparable.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I don't mean this to be combative, but a large percentage of doctors offices I have been to in the past year have used an AI transcription tool that they claim is hipaa compliant.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

just a heads up, ive been trying to get in for a few minutes and it's always busy/full. I think there are a lot of people trying to call in.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

What are the acceptable historical ethnicities? How are they defined? What about ppl from multiple "historical ethnicities"? At what point do you stop looking back? Would someone from Vienna be Austrian? Turkish? Roman? Byzantine? Celtic? This is just gobbledygook with a veneer of historiography.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

It's bad that our politics is so openly and simply for sale. It's bad that even attempted accountability takes over 5 years and can easily be scuttled. It's bad that SCOTUS has repeatedly been making bribery and corruption easier and legal. www.propublica.org/article/fbi-...

propublica.org

The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way

After the FBI caught a defense contractor’s CEO making illegal campaign contributions, it sought to launch a sweeping political bribery probe involving Collins and others. Then the second Trump admini...

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Reposted by Timothy Raben

Shai Carmi @shaicarmi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Given the recent decline of social media for high quality science discussions, I have recently moved most of my activity into this Slack group, dedicated to population genetics and genetic genealogy. Everyone is welcome to join: join.slack.com/t/geneticgen...

join.slack.com

Join Genetic genealogy science on Slack

Slack is a new way to communicate with your team. It’s faster, better organized, and more secure than email.

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Timothy Raben @timothyraben.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I would have just assumed this this was the door to @elisabethbik.bsky.social office.

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