iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Tim de Silva

NBER @nber.org · 23/05/2025

A study of expectations formation when the underlying process has thick tails, from @timdesilva.me, Eugene Larsen-Hallock, Adam Rej, and David Thesmar www.nber.org/papers/w33808

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 26/05/2025

New paper on belief formation in a world with “fat” tails! Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH... Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...

youtube.com

Behavioral Finance Working Group Meeting

YouTube video by NBER

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Just released: Results from the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health by SIEPR's Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow. Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

washingtonpost.com

Opinion | Could a social media detox improve our well-being?

We conducted the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health. Here’s what we found.

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 23/04/2025

Curious about belief formation in the presence of fat tails? Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers... Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!

t.co

https://www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH-icY?si=ujNMp_Q_a86DTQNL&t=22424

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Toni Whited @toniwhited.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-... 12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.

rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu

2025 Summer School on Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Steven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023" At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 09/02/2025

Great paper! I find the theoretical framework to be a really elegant way of seeing a lot of results in the literature in one place

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

"It’s vital that we preserve our reputation for rigor. We’ll fail more often than we succeed. But when we are successful, we will have played a critical role in advancing good economic policy. For me, that’s something worth striving for," writes SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social. Full piece ↘️

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Alex Imas @aleximas.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Delighted to receive the Journal of Finance DFA First Prize for "Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors" We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.

papers.ssrn.com

Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors

Are market experts prone to heuristics, and if so, do they transfer across closely related domains—buying and selling? We investigate this question using a uniq

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 30/12/2024

A fantastic resource for those interested in the cutting edge of policy-relevant economics research. 👇

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 29/12/2024

Love this paper! Great example of how a null result can be super informative from both a positive and normative standpoint.

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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

this abstract is INSANE

We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero prior to 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the 18th and early 19th centuries—“Engel’s Pause”—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet, feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

This slowly dawned on me during my PhD - it was by being at seminars or conferences where I could see the true debate behind a paper and what people thought its contribution and flaws were, not by reading the published version. Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Emma Wiles @emmawiles.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

My economist husband spent the last couple days, jubilantly stating “Saturday the holidays begin! Vacation starts! No more work!” This morning he woke up excited: “no work today!!” He is now making slides for an intro trade class that doesn’t exist “for fun! This isn’t work!!”

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

Trump fixed the economy without even taking office open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 05/12/2024

Love this paper, helps me think through a lot of things these days in the real economy and financial markets!

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 05/12/2024

I like the point here that the shift from manufacturing to services is important for understanding the election!

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Reposted by Tim de Silva

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

With the holiday season upon us, SIEPR reflects on those who make our community special. We are thrilled to share our new batch of Why Econ profiles, which showcase researchers and students and why they have chosen to examine the world and make an impact through the prism of economics. To start...

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 04/12/2024

Such a great conference, sad I can’t make it this year!

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Can you guess what happens when a Walmart Supercenter enters a community? ... ... ... ◾EITC receipts in the community increase ◾ workers' incomes go down as a direct result. "Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

I’m always struck that the people repeating the bogus “60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck” stat never follow it up with any proposals to increase the savings rate. www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...

slowboring.com

This economic myth needs to go away

Sixty percent of Americans are not struggling to get by

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John Schmitt @jschmittwdc.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Basically, US and UK firms that violate minimum wage laws face little probability of getting caught and pay only small fines when they do. Via @annastansbury.bsky.social in @ilrreview.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

INCENTIVES TO COMPLY WITH THE MINIMUM WAGE IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM
ANNA STANSBURY
There is substantial evidence of minimum wage non-compliance in
the United States and the United Kingdom. In this article, the
author compiles new, comprehensive data on the costs that mini-
mum wage violators incur when non-compliance is detected. In
both countries, the costs violators face are often little more than the
money they saved by underpaying. To have an incentive to comply
under existing penalty regimes, typical US firms would thus have to
expect a 47% to 83% probability of detection by the Department of
Labor (DOL), or a 25% probability of a successful Fair Labor
Standards Act (FLSA) suit. In the United Kingdom, typical firms
would have to expect a 44% to 56% probability of detection. Actual
probabilities of detection are substantially lower than this for many
firms and would likely remain so even with realistic increases in
enforcement capacity. Improved enforcement alone is thus insuffi-
cient: Expected penalties must also substantially increase to ensure
that most firms have an incentive to comply.

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Alex Imas @aleximas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

What to make of this? To me, the take-away is we need a much better understanding how the information environment maps onto people's mental representation of the decision problem. Attention/memory has a huge role to play, as they will interact with context to determine this representation. fin.

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Cary Frydman @caryfrydman.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Great thread. It’s possible that noise in cognitive representation of probabilities (or proportions) are driving some of these results. So to the extent that there’s more noise when probabilities aren’t explicitly presented in real world, perhaps you’d get broader scope of PT-like behavior

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Tim de Silva @timdesilva.me · 29/11/2024

Exactly the kind of discussion I came to this platform for!

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