iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

⭐ New Zealand polling update⭐ As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

After a ten-year hiatus from blogging, the hard-working people at @greaterauckland.bsky.social (Greater Auckland) have kindly agreed to publish some of my rando musings as a guest blog post titled, "Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa." www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2025/05/13/w...

greaterauckland.org.nz

Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa - Greater Auckland

This guest post by Dr Stuart Donovan looks at how strengthening the urban core can turn liabilities into assets. The header image of Rangiwhakaoma is by the author. I recently travelled to the remarka...

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Jessica de Heij @jdeheij.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

A great LinkedIn post inspired by a talk by @studonovan.bsky.social “Making the most of our city means allowing more housing where the market wants it to be.”

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

Do you have: ❓ a passion for research ❓ a PhD (or, are close to getting one) ❓ the desire to live + work in New Zealand If you answered ✅ ✅ ✅, then you might want to consider applying for Research Fellow or Senior Fellow positions with us at Motu Research. More deets: www.motu.nz/about-us/wor...

motu.nz

Applications for Research Fellow and Senior Fellow | Motu

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

To my dear friends in my beloved Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, New Zealand -- I'm pleased to be visiting your verdant shores on *2 April* for two public events that some of you might be interested in coming along to. Find links to details + register below.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

🚨 urban economics research siren 🚨 In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland. We find these critiques have little to no merit. doi.org/10.1016/j.la...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Hi fwiends, I'm pleased to be contributing to a discussion on housing and infrastructure policy that is being organised by the Law and Economics of New Zealand and hosted by KPMG Wellington on 13 February. Deets and register (in person or online) here: eventbrite.co.nz/e/pipe-dream...

eventbrite.co.nz

Pipe Dreams? Enabling and funding housing growth in New Zealand

Eventbrite - LEANZ presents Pipe Dreams? Enabling and funding housing growth in New Zealand - Thursday, 13 February 2025 at KPMG Wellington, Wellington, Wellington. Find event and ticket information.

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M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

"Before [racial zoning] was overturned by a court, Atlanta had an explicitly racist zoning code ... To comply with the court ruling, 'R-1 White Districts' became 'Dwelling House Districts' ... and 'R-2 Colored Districts' became Apartment House districts." www.atlcitydesign.com/blog/2021/1/...

atlcitydesign.com

Exclusionary policies of the past and present: How single-family zoning structures inequality — Atlanta Department of City Planning

By Kendra Taylor, Project Manager, Office of Housing and Community Development Racial and economic segregation are so prevalent today that it is easy to assume that segregation arises naturally thro...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

🚨urban economics research siren 🚨 A new (open access) paper considers the effects of upzonings in Lower Hutt, New Zealand. tldr - housing permits ⬆️ by ~10-18% - rents ⬇️by ~21% vs counterfactual These effects are for the metropolitan region. sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

Going it alone: The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Lower Hutt

This paper studies a sequence of zoning reforms enacted in Lower Hutt, a constituent municipality of the wider Wellington metropolitan region of New Z…

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

One of my final fun projects as a consultant in Australia was to contribute to a project that sought to incorporate the benefits of bus priority into a macroscopic ("strategic", or four step) transport model. You can read more about the process here. veitchlister.com/bus-priority...

veitchlister.com

Measuring and incorporating a wider set of bus priority benefits in strategic modelling - Veitch Lister Consulting - VLC

In transport modelling, we usually get reasonable insights from our tools. But sometimes we get the feeling that something is missing.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Does housing affordability and security affects fertility? According to this study the answer is "yes": When people aged 20-25 years are given social housing (via lottery), then they are 32% more likely to have a child and end up having 33% more children in total. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

Housing and Fertility

This paper examines the impact of access to housing on fertility rates using random variation from housing credit lotteries in Brazil. We find that obtaining ho

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Kia ora from Island Bay, Wellington, New Zealand, where the clouds are doing something a little special.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

"Impacts on the value of adjoining properties are not a matter for consideration under the planning scheme ... The development contributes to Brisbane's housing in that it is diverse in type and form, offering choice to different household types and income levels ..." www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01...

abc.net.au

Lower home values a fair price for more housing, planner says

Apartment owners in the Brisbane suburb of St Lucia fear a new development nearby will lower their property prices, but urban planners say housing affordability is more important.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Pleased to confirm that we have absolutely, positively arrived in Wellington, New Zealand. And it was "on a good day", as they say. In a few weeks, I'll get busy trying to help make this place into a shining city on a hill. But for now, bring on the summer holidays.

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Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈 @maxdubler.com · 21/12/2024

Concentrating ~all of your city’s new less-expensive housing on polluted and dangerous main streets while reserving the quiet side streets exclusively for people wealthy enough to afford single family homes, which are the most expensive and luxurious type of housing, is profoundly classist.

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Jay Pitter @jaypitter.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

A single sentence, that if embraced by urbanists, mayors, city councillors & the dude who works in finance but is convinced he intuitively knows how to design a street, would greatly improve cities. This sentence would also make community engagement sessions far more productive.

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Sydney YIMBY @sydney.yimby.au · 21/12/2024

1. Developer files a DA to build some units. 2. City of Sydney says they’re too tall, ‘uncharacteristic’. 3. Developer reduces number of units, reaches agreement with City of Sydney. 4. Land and Environment Court rejects application because there’s not enough units. www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

smh.com.au

‘You can’t always get what you want’: Court knocks back controversial Elizabeth Bay apartment block

A NSW court refused consent for the luxury development over housing supply concerns, in a decision quoting the Rolling Stones’ 1969 hit and Coldplay’s Fix You.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

I really don't think it's a good idea for local councils to impose their own noise standards. This should be something that is set / managed nationally via building codes.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

🚨urban economics research siren🚨 This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model. The results imply upzoning led to: - a 24% increase in floorspace; and - a 15 to 27% fall in house prices. Paper here: t.co/VhlUfIgsTD

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Over on LinkedIn, I've fired shots at some erroneous economic reasoning on the effects of planning regulations. This sounds nerdy, and it is, but it's also important because we need to understand when and how our planning policies can do harm. www.linkedin.com/posts/stuart...

linkedin.com

Stuart Donovan on LinkedIn: Reality check

this is a well-intentioned but harmful perspective. Unfortunately, it's also like kool-aid to the planning profession because it makes it seem like our…

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Jonathan Berk 🏠 @berkie1.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Montana's winning housing reform strategy… Make it easier to build here... to protect there.

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Qagggy! @qagggy.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

I did some field research awhile back to see how the Dutch do bike lanes in industrial areas and—folks—they're better than the shit we have in the city.

Green semi truck crossing a bike lane protected by a wide grassy area and trees. Photo by me.

Red protected bike lane crossing a driveway. Photo by me.

Protected intersection with red semi truck. Photo by me.

Nice red protected bike lane as far as the eye can see. Photo by me.

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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Paris definitely wasn’t always this way. This is very recent. It wasn’t magic. It just took vision and leadership. Your city could choose leadership too. Great pic via @JBPssx

Long line up of people on bikes waiting for the light to change on a Paris street, in a separated bike-lane.

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Travis Jordan @grugstan.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

Horrifying jump in demand for homelessness services being driven by years of unsustainable rent increases. I’m especially worried at half the monthly increase being rough sleepers — which either means precarity has intensified within the homeless cohort or there’s a huge sea of hidden homelessness.

theguardian.com

Extra 10,000 Australians becoming homeless each month, up 22% in three years, report says

Almost half were couch surfing or living in short-term accommodation, UNSW and Homelessness Australia say

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Kathryn Davies @kaphryn.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

A reminder that when we don’t build housing for people, they don’t just disappear into the ether.

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Kashif Pirzada, MD @kashprime.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

With all the doom and gloom these days, there's one bright spot that caught my eye. Pakistan is set to completely replace its entire grid with solar energy. This is a poor country that absolutely struggled to cobble together the US dollars to buy petroleum...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

FYI I'm very excited to move back to New Zealand in just under 3 weeks. Prepare yourself for increasingly enthused tweeting.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

today, I caught the train into Brisbane city centre for my skin check-up. Did I look at the timetable to plan my return journey? No, because our train services run frequently, I could run my errands relaxed in the knowledge that -- whenever I turned up at Central Station -- I'd be able to get home.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Today I'm off to get my regular (every 9-months) skin cancer check up. And a reminder for all of us who live in Australia and New Zealand that regular check ups are a relatively effective and low-cost preventative measure.

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Push The Needle @pushtheneedle.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

in 1990 seattle grabbed swaths of land to upzone hoping to create 100k homes. the debate that upzones cause displacement is a myth. over the next 30 years, the black population cratered in single family zoned areas and grew where housing growth was allowed. density has saved our city’s diversity

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

at 11:30pm on a very rainy Saturday night here in Brisbane, I managed to get my first (multi-level Bayesian) model coded in Stan working. While this may sound trivial, I sense it's an important milestone -- as Stan opens up a lot of potential avenues for new research.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

If you're in New Zealand and interested in transport, then you might want to consider joining us at the Transport Knowledge Hub Conference being organised by the Ministry of Transport on Wednesday 11 December in my new home of Wellington. www.transportknowledgeconference.co.nz

transportknowledgeconference.co.nz

Transport Knowledge Conference | Wellington New Zealand |11 December 2024

Transport Knowledge Conference 2024: Transport’s Role in Economic and Social Prosperity. 11 Decmber 2024 Victoria University of Wellington Te Herenga Waka. Hosted by the Transport Knowledge Hub and Te...

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Ethan Gilbert ✨🏗️ @ethangilbert.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

The Fifth Estate article on design standards is a good example of how bad journalism can poison the housing discourse and lead us to believe a “truth” that never existed. 🧵 thefifthestate.com.au/columns/spin...

thefifthestate.com.au

Lower building standards not the solution to Sydney’s housing crisis

Sophie-May Kerr and and Philip Oldfield lay out why the weakening of design standards would result in poor-quality, uncomfortable homes that would be detrimental to the future of our cities.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

fwiw advancements in technologies for geothermal electricity generation will confer huge benefits to the world, especially places like New Zealand that have huge geothermal potential.

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Eric Crampton @ericcrampton.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Whatever your views on McDonald's, the land use planning system is an absolutely terrible way for the National Public Health Service to intervene. It's bad in its own right. And also suggests their priorities, in time of budget restraint, are a steaming mess. www.nzherald.co.nz/business/eri...

nzherald.co.nz

Eric Crampton: Health officials' unhealthy McDonald’s obsession

OPINION: A fast food fiasco shows some health officials are out of control.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

I find AI (Copilot) quite useful for coding, especially when learning a new language. For example, I've been estimating Bayesian models in R / RStudio using brms for years. The latter is great but doesn't offer much flexibility, e.g. for transformed parameters. To convert my model into Stan ...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

An interesting junction has been reached: Interest rates in New Zealand are typically higher than Australia but, with today's cut, the positions have shifted. And with the RBNZ predicting further cuts while the RBA holds, the interest rate gap between NZ and AU looks set to widen before it narrows.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

I recently posted almost the same thread to BlueSky (where I have ~1.2k followers) and X (where I have ~5.0k followers) about a working paper that I had co-authored. Despite having less than one-quarter of the followers on BSky, the latter platform has generated *almost* as much engagement as X ...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

In this working paper that was published today, Matthew Maltman and I review some of the economic evidence on the effects of ✨upzoning✨in Auckland in 2016. tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow! www.motu.nz/our-research...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

It's quite possible that in the last 24 hours our child's eyesight and possibly life has been saved by antibiotics administered via an IV drip to treat (periorbital) cellulitis. I appreciate, and I cannot emphasize this enough, modern medical treatment.

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M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Zoning is the most perfect form of segregation: a technocratic, class-based form of apartheid that somehow manages to position itself as merely an extended form of property rights.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

You know moving house is getting real when you have to pack the gold-edged tea pot that your mother-in-law gave you as a gift.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

I honestly didn't realize that New York City still applied minimum parking requirements. New Zealand, with a population of a nudge over 5 million in a remote corner of the south Pacific, has removed MPRs nationwide -- before one of the greatest cities the world has ever seen? Amazingly absurd.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Building from Andrew's kind compliment about our urban economics short courses: 1) I am beginning to plan the schedule for short courses in the coming year 2) you can register your interest and preferred location for courses using the form below. bsky.app/profile/stud...

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

House under offer top shelf rum salvaged from neighbours skip on me.

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