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Stephen Semler

@stephensemler.bsky.social
3.2K followers 460 following 1.3K posts

Policy analyst/advisor. Newsletter: stephensemler.com

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Reposted by Stephen Semler
Eli Valley @elivalley.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The Simon Wiesenthal Center *literally blessed* Donald Trump while he was ushering Nazis into the government. The organization condemned anti-fascist Jews for using a Yiddish anti-fascist slogan. To pretend they represent anything but a fascist fringe is absurd.
Variety
@Variety
Mark Ruffalo Called Out Over 'Extremist and Antisemitic Messaging' by Simon Wiesenthal Center, Creative Communities For Peace
From variety.com
4:24 PM · Aug 23, 2026
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202K
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Reposted by Stephen Semler
James Belcher @jamesbelcher.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
"1 in 6 people and 1 in 5 children face food insecurity in OR and southwest WA, according to the OR Food Bank...Black and Latine families...are twice as likely to experience poverty as white families, according to the OR Center for Public Policy."
streetroots.org
Black-owned farms in Oregon are advancing food sovereignty and making it fun
In the face of systemic inequity and worsening poverty statistics that disproportionately affect Black Oregonians, Black farms are on the front lines of feeding and empowering Black communities.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
1) I made it clear that SNAP emergency allotments were tied to the covid public health emergency. 2) My point was Biden ended extra SNAP benefits during a cost of living crisis, completely by choice, and that maybe he should’ve not done that. www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-foo...
What was Biden’s SNAP cut? It’s the one that quietly cut monthly SNAP benefits by a third.

In response to Covid-19, Congress passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act in March 2020. Sec. 2302 of the bill started supplemental SNAP benefits called emergency allotments, which provided at minimum $95 in additional monthly benefits per household for as long as the Public Health Emergency remained in effect.3

Because emergency allotments did not require funding from Congress and Congress does not have the authority to terminate Public Health Emergencies,4 the extra SNAP benefits would persist for as long as the Biden administration wanted them to. To get rid of them, the Biden administration would have to either a) declare an end to the Public Health Emergency (or refuse to renew it); or b) sign legislation ending SNAP emergency allotments.

Biden did both.In May 2023, the Biden administration terminated the Covid-19 Public Health Emergency. SNAP emergency allotments ended two months earlier, thanks to the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (CAA 2023), a $1.7 trillion spending bill. The bill included a sunset provision (Division HH, Title IV, Section 503(b)) for the extra SNAP benefits — which had kept 4.2 million people out of poverty — that took effect after February 2023.

After Biden urged its “swift passage,” all but one congressional Democrat voted for CAA 2023 (Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY). Biden signed the bill into law on December 29, 2022. This left 43 million SNAP recipients only about 60 days to brace for a drastic reduction in food assistance. That’s if they heard about it — the provision was buried on page 1536 of a 1653-page bill that was quickly passed over the holidays.

The result: disaster. After SNAP emergency allotments ended, household food insufficiency increased by 5%, child food insufficiency by 6%, and both by 21% among SNAP recipients. Other studies had similarly grim findings.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
This is the exact same argument the GOP used to slash enhanced ACA subsidies: it was a pandemic era policy so it should end post-pandemic; who cares how many millions of people it was helping.
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Reposted by Stephen Semler
Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Enrollment in SNAP (formerly known as food stamps) has dropped by more than 5 million people since July 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s flagship legislation, passed in July 2025. jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...
Big Beautiful Bill created a food assistance cliff. SNAP enrollment in April 2021: 42 million. In April 2026: 37 million. Line graph shows the percent change in SNAP enrollment since April 2021. From April 2021 to June 2025, enrollment fluctuated largely within two percentage points relative to April 2021, but when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law in July 2025, enrollment took a nosedive. As of April 2026, it’s at –11%. Data: USDA. Data range: April 2021 to April 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler
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dik@chu @chaensaw.com · 21/08/2026
Regular reminder that Biden was a piece of shit
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Reposted by Stephen Semler
Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Trump has cut off food aid to more than 5 million people. But is Trump’s SNAP cut worse than Biden’s? In terms of total monthly benefits lost, Biden’s was 4x worse after nine months ($4 billion to Trump’s $1 billion). www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-foo...
Trump’s SNAP cut has yet to surpass Biden’s. In 9 months, Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 cut $4 billion in SNAP benefits; One Big Beautiful Bill Act has cut $1 billion. This line graph shows average monthly SNAP benefits in 2026 dollars. December 2022, $11.8 billion; September 2023, $7.7 billion. July 2025, $8 billion; April 2026, $6.9 billion. Data: USDA, April 2019 to April 2026, adjusted for inflation using food price deflator. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Enrollment in SNAP (formerly known as food stamps) has dropped by more than 5 million people since July 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s flagship legislation, passed in July 2025. jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...
Big Beautiful Bill created a food assistance cliff. SNAP enrollment in April 2021: 42 million. In April 2026: 37 million. Line graph shows the percent change in SNAP enrollment since April 2021. From April 2021 to June 2025, enrollment fluctuated largely within two percentage points relative to April 2021, but when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law in July 2025, enrollment took a nosedive. As of April 2026, it’s at –11%. Data: USDA. Data range: April 2021 to April 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler
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KB @bkeithb.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Via @stephensemler.bsky.social #BreadNotBombs open.substack.com/pub/stephens...
open.substack.com
Trump’s food assistance cliff
Polygraph | Newsletter n°349 | 20 Aug 2026
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...
jacobin.com
While Trump Cuts Food Aid, ICE Sits on $100 Billion
Five million people have lost food assistance since Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Meanwhile, ICE has received $113 billion from the GOP’s reconciliation bills — and spent just 12...
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Reposted by Stephen Semler
Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
My latest for @jacobinmag.bsky.social jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...
While Trump Cuts Food Aid, ICE Sits on $100 Billion
BY
STEPHEN SEMLER
Five million people have lost food assistance since Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Meanwhile, ICE has received $113 billion from the GOP’s reconciliation bills — and spent just 12% of it.
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FCNL @fcnl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
📢As @stephensemler.bsky.social breaks down, millions of families are being forced to go hungry because of Trump's SNAP cuts... All while ICE sits on a nearly endless budget to terrorize our communities and rip families apart. We can and must create a moral budget that funds compassion > cruelty.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
My latest for @jacobinmag.bsky.social jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...
While Trump Cuts Food Aid, ICE Sits on $100 Billion
BY
STEPHEN SEMLER
Five million people have lost food assistance since Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Meanwhile, ICE has received $113 billion from the GOP’s reconciliation bills — and spent just 12% of it.
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Jacobin @jacobinmag.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Earlier this year in Minnesota, Trump’s Department of Homeland Security infiltrated and surveilled meetings of nonprofit groups and two of the US’s biggest labor unions, the Communications Workers of America and the Service Employees International Union.
jacobin.com
The Trump Administration Has Been Spying on Labor Unions
Earlier this year in Minnesota, Trump’s Department of Homeland Security infiltrated and surveilled meetings of nonprofit groups and two of the US’s biggest labor unions, the Communications Workers of America and the Service Employees International Union.
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Sarah Lazare @sarahlazare.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Dockworker unions in 6 countries, representing 40 ports, are calling for strikes and shutdowns in October 30 to protest war. The unions say, ​“We are ready to meet with organized groups of dockworkers and port workers from any other ports interested in becoming part of this common struggle.”
inthesetimes.com
Dockworkers Unions in Six Countries Announce Day of Strikes and Protests Against War and Genocide
Unions representing workers at 40 ports in Europe and the Mediterranean are calling for an international day of action on October 30.
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The Intercept @theintercept.com · 12/08/2026
The War Department delivered its unreleased annual report on civilian casualties to members of Congress on Tuesday, two government officials told The Intercept — one of whom called the report “a fucking joke” while the other called it a “total whitewash.” interc.pt/4q9aLR8
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
The Trump administration bought ICE eight Boeing 737s and two luxury Gulfstream G650 private jets, which are said to provide a “seamless blend of privacy, efficiency, and indulgence” for “executives, celebrities, and high-net-worth individuals.” Caviar fascism www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
stephensemler.com
ICE is sitting on $100 billion
Polygraph | Newsletter n°348 | 10 Aug 2026
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Mark Goodman @markwgoodman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I hope the next Congress rescinds the future year funding and restores accountability.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
ICE is bewildered by the scale of its own budget. The agency has used just 12% of the funding from the GOP's two reconciliation bills. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
ICE is sitting on $100 billion. 88% of ICE funding from GOP reconciliation bills hasn’t been used. ICE funds in One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) and Secure America Act (June 2026), $113.4 billion; status of ICE funds through June 2026, $13.7 billion used and $99.6 billion unused. Used/unused = obligated/unobligated, technically speaking. Data: P.L. 119-21, 119-38; Jul 2026 SF-133.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Earlier this year, the White House said ICE would use $36 billion from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in FY2026. The agency is on track to use just half that amount. After local resistance, ICE's incompetence appears to have done the most to limit its harm. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
stephensemler.com
ICE is sitting on $100 billion
Polygraph | Newsletter n°348 | 10 Aug 2026
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
ICE is sitting on $100 billion in unused funds. By the time ICE got $39 billion from the Secure America Act in June, it still had $61 billion left over from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed almost a year earlier. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
ICE is sitting on $100 billion. 88% of ICE funding from GOP reconciliation bills hasn’t been used. ICE funds in One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) and Secure America Act (June 2026), $113.4 billion; status of ICE funds through June 2026, $13.7 billion used and $99.6 billion unused. Used/unused = obligated/unobligated, technically speaking. Data: P.L. 119-21, 119-38; Jul 2026 SF-133.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: Following up on my reply to @edzitron.com,I've decided to provide some more context on the GFC's key ingredient & contrast it with the lack of remotely similar dynamics in Data Center financing.That is: no threats to liquidity www.crisesnotes.com/the-great-fi...
crisesnotes.com
The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Was First and Foremost a Liquidity Crisis: Lessons for the Data Center Financial Crisis Debate
The reason I care so much about keeping the record clear about the causes of the Great Financial Crisis is that I think there are many important lessons about how the financial system works in that cr...
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Earlier this year, the White House said ICE would use $36 billion from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in FY2026. The agency is on track to use just half that amount. After local resistance, ICE's incompetence appears to have done the most to limit its harm. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
stephensemler.com
ICE is sitting on $100 billion
Polygraph | Newsletter n°348 | 10 Aug 2026
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Gary Wright II @gary-wright.com · 10/08/2026
If/when we retake control of Congress, we must claw back any remaining funds and #AbolishICE:
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
ICE is bewildered by the scale of its own budget. The agency has used just 12% of the funding from the GOP's two reconciliation bills. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
ICE is sitting on $100 billion. 88% of ICE funding from GOP reconciliation bills hasn’t been used. ICE funds in One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) and Secure America Act (June 2026), $113.4 billion; status of ICE funds through June 2026, $13.7 billion used and $99.6 billion unused. Used/unused = obligated/unobligated, technically speaking. Data: P.L. 119-21, 119-38; Jul 2026 SF-133.
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A. Stefansky @astefansky.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Caviar fascism may be my new favorite descriptor of our political leadership.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
The Trump administration bought ICE eight Boeing 737s and two luxury Gulfstream G650 private jets, which are said to provide a “seamless blend of privacy, efficiency, and indulgence” for “executives, celebrities, and high-net-worth individuals.” Caviar fascism www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
stephensemler.com
ICE is sitting on $100 billion
Polygraph | Newsletter n°348 | 10 Aug 2026
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
ICE is sitting on $100 billion in unused funds. By the time ICE got $39 billion from the Secure America Act in June, it still had $61 billion left over from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed almost a year earlier. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...
ICE is sitting on $100 billion. 88% of ICE funding from GOP reconciliation bills hasn’t been used. ICE funds in One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) and Secure America Act (June 2026), $113.4 billion; status of ICE funds through June 2026, $13.7 billion used and $99.6 billion unused. Used/unused = obligated/unobligated, technically speaking. Data: P.L. 119-21, 119-38; Jul 2026 SF-133.
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KB @bkeithb.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
By @stephensemler.bsky.social #AbolishICE and invest in health care, education, housing, etc. open.substack.com/pub/stephens...
open.substack.com
ICE is sitting on $100 billion
Polygraph | Newsletter n°348 | 10 Aug 2026
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Drew Harwell @drewharwell.com · 02/08/2026
New: We found 50 cops who misused Flock cameras and other license-plate readers for personal purposes, often to spy on their girlfriends or ex-wives. He "watched every single move I made. ... Who do you turn the chief of police in to?" wapo.st/3S6rTuo
wapo.st
She left her ex. He secretly tracked her through a network of policing cameras.
Flock’s array of license-plate cameras was built to fight crime. But at least 50 law enforcement officers were charged with or accused of misusing it and other systems.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
If you win the primary, Rogers wins the general. bsky.app/profile/step...
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
bsky.app/profile/step...
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
bsky.app/profile/step...
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Laleh Khalili @lalehkhalili.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
The reason Israel blew up the 900 year old Beaufort Castle in Lebanon is (1) they have to fake their nationalist archaeological ancestry and can't bear any other regional history; (2) they were ignominiously defeated at Beaufort by PLO in their 1980s invasion of Lebanon & want to erase the memory.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
By the end of the 2026 elections, @haleyformi.bsky.social will likely be the largest recipient of pro-Israel money ever, topping Joe Biden's $4.2M career mark. Through 2024, she took $946K in pro-Israel cash, 13th most in the House. By mid-April 2026, Stevens was already up to $3.3M.
List of the top 30 House recipients of pro-Israel money compared to their votes on an amendment to cut over $3.3 billion in aid to Israel. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Full table here: www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...
stephensemler.com
Why 98 Democrats ignored voters and opposed an Israel aid cut
Polygraph | Newsletter n°347 | 25 Jul 2026
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Stevens’ reliance on Israel lobby cash makes her a political liability, even in a narrow red-vs-blue sense. If Stevens wins, the Dems will lose a Senate seat. The torrent of pro-Israel money sustaining her primary campaign won't be there in the general, because the Israel lobby prefers Republicans.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This survey shows that Dems bankrolled by AIPAC fair worse against a potential Republican than Dems funded by any other donor.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
We cannot afford to let that Senate seat go red. I wish Stevens felt the same way.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
bsky.app/profile/step...
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Dems who opposed the Israel aid cut got $348K from pro-Israel donors (avg); those in favor, $116K. Did the money actually buy votes? Or did the money simply help keep politicians in office who ignore voters? Or doesn’t it matter—after all, neither option’s good www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...
stephensemler.com
Why 98 Democrats ignored voters and opposed an Israel aid cut
Polygraph | Newsletter n°347 | 25 Jul 2026
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Stevens might claim she’s unmoved by the vast sums of pro-Israel funds. But: 3 in 4 Dem voters oppose aid to Israel. House Dems who recently voted against cutting aid to Israel took 3X as much pro-Israel cash as their peers. Guess how Stevens voted www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...
Democrats who opposed cutting Israel aid got 3 times the money from pro-Israel donors. Voted to cut US aid to Israel: $116,000. Voted against cutting US aid to Israel: $348,000. Data: House votes on House Amendment 235 to H.R>8595, to prohibit funds for Israel, including $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (July 2026); OpenSecrets, pro-Israel money to Congress (1990–2024).
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Marquis @resurrectedmarquis.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I don't understand how anyone can look at a politician who takes bribe money from genociders and think "Yeah, I'd vote for them. And I don't know why people wouldn't."
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the irreducible @anguilline.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
To those beholden to the lobby, losing seems preferable to shutting off the money spigot.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Stevens might claim she’s unmoved by the vast sums of pro-Israel funds. But: 3 in 4 Dem voters oppose aid to Israel. House Dems who recently voted against cutting aid to Israel took 3X as much pro-Israel cash as their peers. Guess how Stevens voted www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...
Democrats who opposed cutting Israel aid got 3 times the money from pro-Israel donors. Voted to cut US aid to Israel: $116,000. Voted against cutting US aid to Israel: $348,000. Data: House votes on House Amendment 235 to H.R>8595, to prohibit funds for Israel, including $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (July 2026); OpenSecrets, pro-Israel money to Congress (1990–2024).
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
bsky.app/profile/step...
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
By the end of the 2026 elections, @haleyformi.bsky.social will likely be the largest recipient of pro-Israel money ever, topping Joe Biden's $4.2M career mark. Through 2024, she took $946K in pro-Israel cash, 13th most in the House. By mid-April 2026, Stevens was already up to $3.3M.
List of the top 30 House recipients of pro-Israel money compared to their votes on an amendment to cut over $3.3 billion in aid to Israel. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
"Buying food to eat at home has gotten 33% more expensive in U.S. cities since the beginning of 2019, according to government figures. In the 7.5 years before that, prices rose 6.4%." (via @apnews.com) apnews.com/article/groc...
Line chart showing the percent change in "at home" food prices in U.S. cities since 2012, based on an Associated Press analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...
stephensemler.com
Why 98 Democrats ignored voters and opposed an Israel aid cut
Polygraph | Newsletter n°347 | 25 Jul 2026
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