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Notes on the Crises

@crisesnotes.bsky.social
2.1K followers 16 following 14 posts

Currently: Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis www.crisesnotes.com www.instagram.com/crisesnotes www.youtube.com/@crisesnotes President: @nathantankus.bsky.social

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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NEW PIECE: I finally return to my "hierarchy of finance" series with quite a long read about the Household, particularly the Antebellum (pre-Civil War) U.S. household. This piece in fact became so big, I had to save the twentieth century... for part 2. www.crisesnotes.com/the-househol...
crisesnotes.com
The Household in The Hierarchy of Finance in a Capitalist Economy (Part One)
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I think this piece is well worth subscribing to read. Not to mention the deep archive of premium pieces I have too. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
As always, take out a paid subscription to @crisesnotes.bsky.social here. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social: I'm back from a short-family related hiatus with a "catch-up" piece on the latest in monetary policy. I talk about how boring Warsh is, connect it to some age old debates & then circle back to his ending(ish) of "Forward Guidance" www.crisesnotes.com/thats-not-th...
crisesnotes.com
That’s Not the Warsh of It: The End(ish) of Forward Guidance and the Rise(?) of Treasury Monetary Policy
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. Take out a paid subscription to support our work here.  Publisher Note: I’ve been off for two weeks because of a family medical emergency. Everything is f...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I've made the commitment that all OMB coverage from @crisesnotes.bsky.social will be free. That's a tough commitment to make as a small independent publication. So please subscribe. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE! @juanhanes.bsky.social @josh1935.bsky.social and I finally finish off the five part Levers series on how OMB exercises influence over Administrative Agencies. The last levers are "management initiatives" www.crisesnotes.com/spreading-je...
crisesnotes.com
Spreading Jesus Through the OMB: The Final Levers OMB Has Over Agencies are “Management Initiatives”
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in our OMB coverage will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.  Joshua Lawrence is a research fell...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Coming Friday, at long last, is the fifth and final part of @crisesnotes.bsky.social's "Seven Levers" series about the OMB. I'm particularly happy with the banner image I made for this 🙃 www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
Spreading Jesus Through the OMB: The Final Levers OMB Has Over Agencies are “Management Initiatives”
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
As always, you can leave a tip to support Notes on the Crises's work. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/supp...
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
This is a premium piece (Sorry! Gotta paywall this stuff since I've committed to keeping the OMB series completely free!) www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
crisesnotes.com
Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: Following up on my reply to @edzitron.com,I've decided to provide some more context on the GFC's key ingredient & contrast it with the lack of remotely similar dynamics in Data Center financing.That is: no threats to liquidity www.crisesnotes.com/the-great-fi...
crisesnotes.com
The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Was First and Foremost a Liquidity Crisis: Lessons for the Data Center Financial Crisis Debate
The reason I care so much about keeping the record clear about the causes of the Great Financial Crisis is that I think there are many important lessons about how the financial system works in that cr...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
This is going to be the 20th piece published in @crisesnotes.bsky.social in exactly two months. And the pipeline of pieces goes out past mid-September. It's never been a better time to take out a paid subscription. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...
crisesnotes.com
A Hidden Geopolitical Threat to the Global Financial System? Oddities in the U.S.-Japanese Yen Intervention
This is a Premium Piece of Notes on the Crises. If Notes on the Crises gets enough paid subscriptions or tips associated with this piece, it will be unlocked. Given that I’ve committed to ma...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Have a premium @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece coming out tomorrow on the U.S. government's intervention into the Japanese Yen from an angle I haven't seen anyone talk about publicly. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
A Hidden Geopolitical Threat to the Global Financial System? Oddities in the U.S.-Japanese Yen Intervention
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Of course, keep on subscribing! If a subscription wave sustains itself for the next six weeks I can keep all my AI(LLM) writing unpaywalled. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
UPDATE: I am back from mini-vacation upstate & the paid subscription response was so strong that I'm unlocking Thursday's response to @edzitron.com . Thank you to all the new paid subscribers who made this possible. I'm a writer! I like sharing my writing! www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...
crisesnotes.com
*Sigh* No Ed Zitron, AI bond issuance is not AI’s "Subprime Mortgage Crisis”
EDITORIAL NOTE: Given the importance of this issue, and in a desire to be fair when writing such a critical piece, I sent a draft of this article to Ed Zitron to review and give his response to. I've ...
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conputer dipshit @davidcrespo.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
the piece is fantastic. I want to screenshot the entire thing, but instead I will encourage you to read it by paying Nathan $10 for a month’s subscription
crisesnotes.com
*Sigh* No Ed Zitron, AI bond issuance is not AI’s "Subprime Mortgage Crisis”
EDITORIAL NOTE: Given the importance of this issue, and in a desire to be fair when writing such a critical piece, I sent a draft of this article to Ed Zitron to review and give his response to. I've ...
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Lynne @lynne-sails.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
I'm glad smarter people than I are examining claims around financial systems because I'm certainly not equipped to (and, subscribe to @nathantankus.bsky.social because he does really good important work.)
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/07/2026
Yeah this is all correct.
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Jane Rabbit @janerabbit.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
omg this is so civil! And constructive! I'd forgotten what it's like! Thanks, @nathantankus.bsky.social
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: In this piece I critique a recent piece from @edzitron.com comparing the AI(LLM) boom to the "Subprime" Mortgage Crisis (and implicitly the GFC of 2007-2009). The ? is:"How big of a macrofinancial threat is the AI(LLM) Boom?" www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...
crisesnotes.com
*Sigh* No Ed Zitron, AI bond issuance is not AI’s "Subprime Mortgage Crisis”
EDITORIAL NOTE: Given the importance of this issue, and in a desire to be fair when writing such a critical piece, I sent a draft of this article to Ed Zitron to review and give his response to. I've ...
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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
A strong piece that's a good approachable intro to Nathan's work generally. And I really like the comparison with the fracking boom at the end. AI is bigger as a % of GDP, but not crazily so and the end result is many companies losing, environmental harm, and the benefits mostly going to consumers.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
This is a premium piece, so you're going to have to subscribe to read. At 55 dollars a year, I think you're getting a lot for your dollars nowadays. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: @juanhanes.bsky.social, @josh1935.bsky.social and I are back with part 4 of our "Seven Levers" series. Here we examine how Continuing Resolutions & Government Shutdowns grant OMB enormous powers. Even to cancel Christmas www.crisesnotes.com/christmas-is...
crisesnotes.com
Christmas is Not Essential: the Levers OMB has Over Agencies under Continuing Resolutions and Government Shutdowns
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.  Joshua Lawrence is a research fello...
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Notes on the Crises @crisesnotes.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
In a government shutdown, OMB can take away Christmas.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
As always, take a paid subscription to support this work. Understanding every inch of the OMB is not exciting or flashy work but its absolutely essential if we're going to end this unitary executive and impoundment crisis. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Phil Rocco @philiprocco.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Huge story here from @juanhanes.bsky.social and @nathantankus.bsky.social on a sweeping plan at HUD that would jeopardize federal housing assistance. www.crisesnotes.com/breaking-hud...
crisesnotes.com
BREAKING: HUD is Planning on Hobbling Federal Financial Assistance for Housing by Burying it in Paperwork.
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. Please take out a paid subscription so that breaking news coverage like this can be kept free. Or leave a tip. Have non-public information about the Trump...
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isaac @sevier.io · 23/07/2026
Jfc
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Tankus Abundance??????!!!!?????
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Chuck Schulien @cschess.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
As a HUD housing recipient, I don't want my provider to be further stressed - they are excellent. I hope that my Federal electees follow Notes on the Crises - they should! @repdexteror.bsky.social @wyden.senate.gov @merkley.senate.gov
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
One way to understand the second Trump administration is two wildly divergent perspectives on administrative burdens: insiders, tech and finance are exempted; enemies and the vulnerable are targeted. bsky.app/profile/nath...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
BREAKING @crisesnotes.bsky.social from @juanhanes.bsky.social and I: HUD is planning to add "special conditions to grant awards” that will require grantees to submit all invoices & individual payment information from themselves, "subrecipients" AND contractors www.crisesnotes.com/breaking-hud...
crisesnotes.com
BREAKING: HUD is Planning on Hobbling Federal Financial Assistance for Housing by Burying it in Paperwork.
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. Please take out a paid subscription so that breaking news coverage like this can be kept free. Or leave a tip. Have non-public information about the Trump...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Subscribe here to support more reporting like this, as well as all the other work @crisesnotes.bsky.social does. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
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Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
By the way, @juanhanes.bsky.social and I are breaking a story about Housing and Urban Development grants tomorrow morning. You're not going to want to miss it so subscribe. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
BREAKING: HUD is Planning on Hobbling Federal Financial Assistance for Housing by Burying it in Paperwork.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: Confused about the oil market's behavior while the Strait of Hormuz is closed? This is my long piece breaking down what's happening, with the help of @roryjohnston.bsky.social's excellent Odd Lots interview last month. www.crisesnotes.com/the-oil-mark...
crisesnotes.com
The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor
I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom pr...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
"The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor: Understanding the market dynamics behind the Trump-Iran War" Coming in two hours. You're not gonna want to miss it. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor: Understanding the market dynamics behind the Trump-Iran War
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social: @levmenand.bsky.social and I had the chance to go on Odd Lots with @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @weisenthal.bsky.social. The episode came out yesterday, but here is the transcript. www.crisesnotes.com/notes-on-the...
crisesnotes.com
Notes on the Crises on Bloomberg Odd Lots: Lev Menand and Nathan Tankus on Why Fed Independence Is Now Hanging by a Thread
Last August, President Trump made the unprecedented choice of moving to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
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Anisha Steephen @asteephen.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
1/ In June 2025 I wrote about the impending authoritarian capture of the IRS for @crisesnotes.bsky.social. I named IRC § 7217, enacted after Nixon audited his enemies, and warned the firewall between the White House and taxpayer audits was under siege. Thirteen months later here we are.🧵
crisesnotes.com
The Fiscal State Under Siege: Why People Hate the IRS, and Why You Should Care
How Trump, DOGE, and Project 2025 Are Turning the IRS Into a Tool of Authoritarian Rule Editor’s Introduction: Hello readers, it's Nathan Tankus and I am very happy to bring to you the first in a l...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I am gonna wait till the transcript is cleaned up to post it to @crisesnotes.bsky.social but here is @levmenand.bsky.social and I's interview with @tracyalloway.bsky.social & @weisenthal.bsky.social on Unitary Executive minus the Fed Theory and what it all means. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Lev Menand and Nathan Tankus on Why Fed Independence Is Now Hanging by a Thread
What two big SCOTUS decisions mean for the central bank.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
New @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: Today @juanhanes.bsky.social, @josh1935.bsky.social and I return to talk about the "devil in the footnotes" i.e. the footnotes OMB attaches to agency's "appropriation accounts" to control how they spend funds www.crisesnotes.com/the-devil-is...
crisesnotes.com
The Devil is in the Footnotes: The Fourth and Fifth Levers OMB Has Over Agencies
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.  Joshua Lawrence is a research fello...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
You can also leave a huge tip without bothering with a subscription. In a memo line say you want @juanhanes.bsky.social or @josh1935.bsky.social to get the money you sent and I'll hand it right over to them! www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/supp...
crisesnotes.com
Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Want to take a moment to point out the run of 12 pieces I've had since coming back June 10th (33 days ago). I'm really proud of this work and think its some of my best. Subscribe because I've got the rest of the summer's schedule already filled out www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
crisesnotes.com
Notes on the Crises
Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: This is my Alan Greenspan obituary... but really I'm honoring the late congressman Henry B. Gonzalez. Like reading FOMC transcripts? You have him to thank. I also have a question for Warsh in his Humphrey Hawkins hearing today www.crisesnotes.com/alan-greensp...
crisesnotes.com
Alan Greenspan’s Death is a Chance to Remember the Heroism of his Most Powerful Critic
This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. Subscribe to support our work. Subscribe Today! When I first learned of Alan Greenspan’s death at the age of 100 a few weeks ago, my first th...
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
At long last, I'm putting out my (kind of) Alan Greenspan obituary tomorrow, in time for Kevin Warsh's first Humphrey Hawkins hearing as Federal Reserve chairman. You're not gonna want to miss it. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup
Alan Greenspan’s Death is a Chance to Remember the Heroism of his Most Powerful Critic
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Dan Immergluck @danimmergluck.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Yes, it's not *just* about funding science. It's about authoritarianism across government funding more broadly.
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Ethan @strangebirds.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Read this now!
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Brian Welsch @hikinfiend.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Hey @philiprocco.bsky.social, I expect city, county, & state government officers + their citizens would want to submit comments on this proposed rule change. (Link: www.regulations.gov/document/OMB...) Which sections should be cited in comments about Fed grants to state & local governments?
regulations.gov
Regulations.gov
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Rachel K @xrkulik.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
informative and timely piece about how that OMB rule about federal grants is even worse that you thought (deadline to submit a public comment: tonight at midnight, which means I need to finish writing and submit mine!)
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Notes on the Crises @crisesnotes.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
EXTRA EXTRA, READ ALL ABOUT IT
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Haven't been keeping up with my cloudfare stats and was happy to login and see 71k unique @crisesnotes.bsky.social visitors in the last month. Thanks to everyone reading and sharing!
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