iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

1) I made it clear that SNAP emergency allotments were tied to the covid public health emergency. 2) My point was Biden ended extra SNAP benefits during a cost of living crisis, completely by choice, and that maybe he should’ve not done that. www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-foo...

What was Biden’s SNAP cut? It’s the one that quietly cut monthly SNAP benefits by a third.

In response to Covid-19, Congress passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act in March 2020. Sec. 2302 of the bill started supplemental SNAP benefits called emergency allotments, which provided at minimum $95 in additional monthly benefits per household for as long as the Public Health Emergency remained in effect.3

Because emergency allotments did not require funding from Congress and Congress does not have the authority to terminate Public Health Emergencies,4 the extra SNAP benefits would persist for as long as the Biden administration wanted them to. To get rid of them, the Biden administration would have to either a) declare an end to the Public Health Emergency (or refuse to renew it); or b) sign legislation ending SNAP emergency allotments.

Biden did both.

In May 2023, the Biden administration terminated the Covid-19 Public Health Emergency. SNAP emergency allotments ended two months earlier, thanks to the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (CAA 2023), a $1.7 trillion spending bill. The bill included a sunset provision (Division HH, Title IV, Section 503(b)) for the extra SNAP benefits — which had kept 4.2 million people out of poverty — that took effect after February 2023.

After Biden urged its “swift passage,” all but one congressional Democrat voted for CAA 2023 (Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY). Biden signed the bill into law on December 29, 2022. This left 43 million SNAP recipients only about 60 days to brace for a drastic reduction in food assistance. That’s if they heard about it — the provision was buried on page 1536 of a 1653-page bill that was quickly passed over the holidays.

The result: disaster. After SNAP emergency allotments ended, household food insufficiency increased by 5%, child food insufficiency by 6%, and both by 21% among SNAP recipients. Other studies had similarly grim findings.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Trump has cut off food aid to more than 5 million people. But is Trump’s SNAP cut worse than Biden’s? In terms of total monthly benefits lost, Biden’s was 4x worse after nine months ($4 billion to Trump’s $1 billion). www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-foo...

Trump’s SNAP cut has yet to surpass Biden’s. In 9 months, Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 cut $4 billion in SNAP benefits; One Big Beautiful Bill Act has cut $1 billion. This line graph shows average monthly SNAP benefits in 2026 dollars. December 2022, $11.8 billion; September 2023, $7.7 billion. July 2025, $8 billion; April 2026, $6.9 billion. Data: USDA, April 2019 to April 2026, adjusted for inflation using food price deflator. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Enrollment in SNAP (formerly known as food stamps) has dropped by more than 5 million people since July 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s flagship legislation, passed in July 2025. jacobin.com/2026/08/trum...

Big Beautiful Bill created a food assistance cliff. SNAP enrollment in April 2021: 42 million. In April 2026: 37 million. Line graph shows the percent change in SNAP enrollment since April 2021. From April 2021 to June 2025, enrollment fluctuated largely within two percentage points relative to April 2021, but when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law in July 2025, enrollment took a nosedive. As of April 2026, it’s at –11%. Data: USDA. Data range: April 2021 to April 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

ICE is bewildered by the scale of its own budget. The agency has used just 12% of the funding from the GOP's two reconciliation bills. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...

ICE is sitting on $100 billion. 88% of ICE funding from GOP reconciliation bills hasn’t been used. ICE funds in One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) and Secure America Act (June 2026), $113.4 billion; status of ICE funds through June 2026, $13.7 billion used and $99.6 billion unused. Used/unused = obligated/unobligated, technically speaking. Data: P.L. 119-21, 119-38; Jul 2026 SF-133.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

ICE is sitting on $100 billion in unused funds. By the time ICE got $39 billion from the Secure America Act in June, it still had $61 billion left over from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed almost a year earlier. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-is-sit...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Stevens might claim she’s unmoved by the vast sums of pro-Israel funds. But: 3 in 4 Dem voters oppose aid to Israel. House Dems who recently voted against cutting aid to Israel took 3X as much pro-Israel cash as their peers. Guess how Stevens voted www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...

Democrats who opposed cutting Israel aid got 3 times the money from pro-Israel donors. Voted to cut US aid to Israel: $116,000. Voted against cutting US aid to Israel: $348,000. Data: House votes on House Amendment 235 to H.R>8595, to prohibit funds for Israel, including $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (July 2026); OpenSecrets, pro-Israel money to Congress (1990–2024).

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

This survey shows that Dems bankrolled by AIPAC fair worse against a potential Republican than Dems funded by any other donor.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

By the end of the 2026 elections, @haleyformi.bsky.social will likely be the largest recipient of pro-Israel money ever, topping Joe Biden's $4.2M career mark. Through 2024, she took $946K in pro-Israel cash, 13th most in the House. By mid-April 2026, Stevens was already up to $3.3M.

List of the top 30 House recipients of pro-Israel money compared to their votes on an amendment to cut over $3.3 billion in aid to Israel. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

98 House Democrats voted against cutting US aid to Israel. In doing so, they rejected a view held by three in four Democratic voters. Money helps explain why. www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

House Democrats who voted against cutting $3.3 billion in aid to Israel received 3 times as much money from pro-Israel donors as those who voted in favor. www.stephensemler.com/p/why-98-dem...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Hegseth told senators at yesterday’s hearing that the Iran War has cost less than $40 billion. Yet at the same hearing, Hegseth asked for ~$70 billion to cover the war's costs. A breakdown of the Trump admin's supplemental request:

Trump’s $88 billion spending request. $72 billion is for Iran War costs. Agency – description – requested amount in billions of dollars: Pentagon – Munitions, operations, other costs – 67; DHS – Coast Guard support for Operation Epic Fury – 2; State – Embassy fortification, civilian evacuations – 2; Energy – nuclear materials disposal – .768; FBI – Activities related to Operation Epic Fury – .040; Treasury – Office of Terrorism and Financial Assistance – .036. Subtotal, war costs: 72. Agriculture – Additional crops subsidies – 11; Labor – Restore certain Delphi pensions – 1; Transportation – Renovations to Penn Station – 1; State – Humanitarian aid to Central Africa – 0.890; GSA – Renovations to federal buildings – .600; State – Ebola outbreak response – .550; Interior – Renovations to national monuments – .500. Subtotal, non-war costs: 16. Total: 87.6. Source: Office of Management and Budget, FY2026 Supplemental, June 24, 2026.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Trump shouldn’t sell himself short: This war is burning through taxpayer dollars faster than all those ($103B in first 120 days) and is already more unpopular than all those wars too. www.stephensemler.com/p/us-spent-1... www.stephensemler.com/p/iran-war-m...

Iran War: Most unpopular US war in history. The image shows the trajectories in popularity of the last seven U.S. wars. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Jun 2026).

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

@justinwolfers.bsky.social For your next Iran War cost assessment, here’s an estimate of the narrow, direct war cost that Hegseth/Hurst/Vought claim is $29-30B — in reality, it’s likely over $100B. That’s before accounting for long term budgetary costs & economic costs popular.info/p/cost-of-ir...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

New reports say the Pentagon’s internal estimate puts the cost of the Iran War at $100 billion—more than 3x the figure given by Trump officials and 2–3x the estimates from Washington think tanks. Last week, I estimated the war’s cost at $103 billion popular.info/p/cost-of-ir...

Wired headline, July 15 2026: Intel officials predict the pentagon’s bill for the Iran war will exceed $100 billion

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

The sale included suppressors for the rifles, both of which shown here. youtu.be/KX4i5qYZaJk?... www.war.gov/News/Contrac...

Israeli settler with American made M4 assault rifle and suppressor

Israeli settler and IDF with American made M4 assault rifle and suppressor

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

70 senators voted last July against stopping the transfer of 20,000 US-made M4A1 assault rifles to Israel—the same model carried by the Israeli settlers and IDF who detained US congressman Ro Khanna in the illegally occupied West Bank. Roll call:

NAYs
Banks (R-IN
Barrasso (R-WY
Bennet (D-CO
Blackburn (R-TN
Blumenthal (D-CT
Booker (D-NJ
Boozman (R-AR
Britt (R-AL
Budd (R-NC
Cantwell (D-WA)
Capito (R-WV)
Cassidy (R-LA)
Collins (R-ME)
Coons (D-DE)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Cotton (R-AR)
Cramer (R-ND)
Crapo (R-ID)
Cruz (R-TX)
Curtis (R-UT)
Daines (R-MT)
Ernst (R-IA)
Fetterman (D-PA)
Fischer (R-NE)
Gillibrand (D-NY
Graham (R-SC
Grassley (R-IA
Hagerty (R-TN
Hassan (D-NH
Hawley (R-MO)
Hickenlooper (D-CO)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Husted (R-OH)
Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Johnson (R-WI)
Justice (R-WV
Kennedy (R-LA
Lankford (R-OK
Lee (R-UT
Lummis (R-WY
Marshall (R-KS)
McConnell (R-KY)
McCormick (R-PA)
Moody (R-FL)
Moran (R-KS)
Moreno (R-OH
Mullin (R-OK
Murkowski (R-AK
Padilla (D-CA
Paul (R-KY
Peters (D-MI
Ricketts (R-NE
Risch (R-ID)
Rosen (D-NV)
Rounds (R-SD)
Schiff (D-CA)
Schmitt (R-MO)
Schumer (D-NY)
Scott (R-FL)
Scott (R-SC)
Sheehy (R-MT)
Sullivan (R-AK)
Thune (R-SD
Tillis (R-NC
Tuberville (R-AL
Warner (D-VA
Wicker
Wyden
Young

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

What’s more: x.com/stephensemle...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Through four months, the US has spent $103 billion on the Iran War. An average of more than $860 million per day. popular.info/p/cost-of-ir...

US spent $103 billion first 120 days of Iran War. Estimated US war costs, February 28 to June 27, 2026. Operations (mobilization, administration, combat), $28.5B; Weapons (missiles, interceptors, bombs, other), $46.7B; Losses (damaged or destroyed military assets), $20.3B; Subsidies (paying for Israel's bombs, interceptors), $2.9B; Other (war costs to nonmilitary US agencies), $4.8B. Total cost of the first 120 days of the Iran War: $103.3B. Direct war cost estimates based on author's analysis of procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, officials' statements, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

WSJ reports that Trump will request ~$80 billion to cover the US military’s Iran War costs. Last month, I estimated direct US war costs totaled at least $72 billion. Establishment media were reporting $29 billion. Unimaginably niche bragging rights

May 6, 2026 headline: The real cost of the Iran War: $72 billion for the first 60 days. June 18, 2026 headline: Pentagon tells lawmakers it needs $80 billion for Iran War and other bills.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The Iran War is the most unpopular US war in history. No other war: -started with less public support -recorded lower public support in its latest poll -had negative net support during the entire war www.stephensemler.com/p/iran-war-m...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The Iran War just became America’s most unpopular war. Its net support has sunk to –32% in June, below the Vietnam War’s –31% www.stephensemler.com/p/iran-war-m...

Iran War: No US war began or ended with less public support. The image shows two column charts stacked on top of each other. This chart shows two column graphs stacked on top of one another: the first shows the starting net support for the last seven U.S. wars; the bottom chart shows the ending (or in the Iran War’s case, latest net support) during each war. Here is each war with its starting and ending (or latest) net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –32%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Polling data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Jun 2026).

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Last month I estimated the US had spent at least $72 billion militarily on the Iran War. (Prevailing estimate in the media: $29 billion) Today, WSJ reports the Pentagon will ask Congress for ~$80 billion to cover its Iran War expenses. Is this the most niche brag of all time

The real cost of the Iran War: $72 billion for the first 60 days
Popular Information crunches the numbers.
The official accounting is at least $47 billion
too low.
STEPHEN SEMLER
MAY 06, 2026

Pentagon Tells Lawmakers It Needs $80 Billion for Iran War and Other Bills
Military officials say the services could run out of money for operations this summer unless Congress passes a new wartime spending bill
By Lara Seligman, Yoko Kubota and Marcus Weisgerber
June 18, 2026

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Definitely better than this type of response

Ed Markey tweet criticizing ceasefire deal, saying Congress should reject it.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

The Senate version of the 2027 NDAA includes the same provision merging the US and Israeli militaries as the House bill. This is not US-Israeli "cooperation." It's more US military aid packaged in less transparent, more PR-friendly terms.

SEC. 1217. UNITED STATES-ISRAEL FRAMEWORK FOR UP- GRADED TECHNOLOGIES, UNIFIED RESEARCH, AND ENHANCED SECURITY (FUTURES) ACT OF 2026.
(a) ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UNITED STATES-
ISRAEL DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION INITIA-
TIVE.-
(1) ESTABLISHMENT.—The Secretary of De-fense, in consultation with the Minister of Defense of Israel, shall establish a cooperative initiative, to be known as the "United States-Israel Defense
Technology Cooperation Initiative", to expand and accelerate bilateral defense technology research, de-velopment, testing, evaluation, coordination, and industrial cooperation by—

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Housing security is deteriorating in the country that just produced the world’s first trillionaire. Nearly 1 in 4 tenants fell behind on rent in 2025. www.stephensemler.com/p/nearly-1-i...

Nearly 1 in 4 US renters fell behind on rent in 2025. Share behind on rent in the past 12 months, by income. All incomes: 2019,
10%; 2021, 17%; 2022, 17%; 2023, 19%; 2024, 21%; 2025, 23%. Incomes under $50,000: 2019, 12%; 2021, 23%; 2022, 23%; 2023, 27%; 2024, 28%; 2025, 32%. Incomes from $50,000 to $100,000: 2019, 6%; 2021, 9%; 2022, 8%; 2023, 14%; 2024, 16%; 2025, 17%. Incomes over $100,000: 2019, 2%; 2021, 2%; 2022, 2%; 2023, 2%; 2024, 6%; 2025, 5%. Data: Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). Data and analysis by Stephen Semler.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Monthly rent has increased 37% since 2019. From 2019 to 2024, rent increased 55% faster than household income. www.stephensemler.com/p/nearly-1-i...

Rent has increased 37% since 2019. Average US monthly rent: 2019, $1,383; 2020, $1,419; 2021, $1,540; 2022, $1,727; 2023, $1,798; 2024, $1,850; 2025, $1,898. Data: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

There are 46 million renter households in the US. The share behind on rent has more than doubled since 2019. www.stephensemler.com/p/nearly-1-i...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

In terms of public support, the Iran War is the first US war in history to be fought entirely underwater. Net approval started at –13%, now it's at –30%. Opposition submerged support every step of the way. The Trump administration overestimated its ability to manipulate people.

Iran War is first U.S. war the public never supported. The image shows two column charts stacked on top of each other. The top chart shows the starting net support for the last seven U.S. wars; the bottom chart shows the latest net support during each war. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Polling data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–May 2026).

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

I analyzed 152 public opinion polls measuring support for the last 7 US wars. The Iran War is on track to become the most unpopular US war in history— if it isn't already. It took the Vietnam War 2,258 days to reach –30% net support. The Iran War did it in 30. www.stephensemler.com/p/iran-war-i...

Iran War is first U.S. war the public never supported. The image shows the trajectories in popularity of the last seven U.S. wars. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–May 2026). Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Rarely, but not quite never transitionsecurity.org/working-clas...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Good Q. The NY Fed dataset I was working with for that chart/article doesn’t provide figures on that. Though during my research, I did read this report, which has something close to what you’re looking for.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

I counted 50. I’ll write CRS tomorrow popular.info/p/iran-war-c... popular.info/p/the-real-c...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

More than a fifth of credit cardholders paid a late fee in the past year. JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Capital One, and Citigroup collected $146 billion in credit card revenue last year. www.stephensemler.com/p/falling-wa...

U.S. credit card debt is historically high. Orange line chart starts at roughly $700 billion in 2003 and ends with $1.25 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with peaks of approximately $850 billion and $875 billion in 2008 and 2019, and troughs of approximately $675 billion from in 2013 and $800 billion in 2021. Figures: 2003:Q1-2026:Q1, current dollars. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, May 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.

Credit card debt is historically expensive. This purple line chart shows credit card APR (annual percentage rate) starting at 12.7% in 2003 and ending at 21.5% in the first quarter of 2026, fueled by a rapid increase after 2021. Since 2023, credit card APR has hovered around 22%. Figures: 2003:Q1-2026:Q1, current dollars. Data: Federal Reserve, Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, Accounts Assessed Interest.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Credit card debt is nearly 30% more expensive to carry in 2026 than in 2019. The share of credit card debt 90+ days delinquent has increased 58% since 2019. www.stephensemler.com/p/falling-wa...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

US credit card debt has increased 14% faster than inflation since 2019, reaching $1.25 trillion. The personal savings rate dropped by 51% over the same period. www.stephensemler.com/p/falling-wa...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

From the article you didn’t read:

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

@sevier.io did you see this analysis: www.stephensemler.com/p/what-15-tr... I may have overestimated the cost of building the solar capacity to power half of US households, but your argument broadly applies here too.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The US has spent an estimated $71.8 billion on the Iran War, or $1.2 billion per day on average.

U.S. spent $72 billion in first 60 days of Iran War. Estimated U.S. war costs, 28 February through 28 April 2026. Column headers are as follows: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows are as follows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $15.8 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $41.2 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $11.9 billion. Subsidies; Paying for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $2.9 billion. Total; Cost of the first 60 days of the Iran War; $71.8 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author's analysis of officials' statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Pete Hegseth told Congress the Iran War has cost $25 billion. Hegseth lied — the US has spent at least $72 billion. My latest for @popular.info: popular.info/p/the-real-c...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The debt angle was a word count casualty, so I’m glad you brought it up. Here’s a bit that was cut:

But his proposed military spending will increase the deficit, the same deficit he's using to pay for the Iran War. Trump and congressional Republicans have no plans to offset war costs with a corresponding tax increase: "War is never paid for when you fight it, it's paid for over time," House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) said last month. "We didn't pay for World War II or Korea or World War I...so I don't think it should be offset."
Cole is either lying or ignorant. Taxes were levied in 1914, 1916, 1917, and 1919 to fund WWI; in 1940, 1941, 1942, and 1944 for WWII; and in 1950 and
1951 for the Korean War). The US only stopped taxing war post-9/11.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

I tried to spend the equivalent of Trump’s proposed military budget. Globally, I eliminated hunger & extreme poverty; in the US, I ended homelessness, covered the uninsured, installed universal pre-K, sent another round of $600 checks, & powered 50% of households with solar. I have $77B left over.

What $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon could fund instead. This column chart compares the $1.504 trillion requested military budget for 2027 against a set of alternatives. In billions: 93, End world hunger; 318, End global extreme poverty; 29, End US homelessness; 214, Medicaid for uninsured; 35, Universal US pre-K; 141, Send $600 checks to 235M Americans; 596 , Power half of US households with solar. Proposed and estimated costs are annual, except solar (overnight capital cost) and $600 checks (matching cost of January 2021 relief payments). Data: President’s Budget for fiscal year 2027, author analysis.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Nice to have company as I beat my head against the same wall, cheers Also that Purdue food security data you cited is even more valuable now that Trump admin canceled the annual USDA survey.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Budgets are moral documents www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...

US budgets less for improving lives, more for ending them. Discretionary spending by function, constant 2026 dollars. This chart shows war spending increasing steadily since 2017 and shows public investment spending peaking in 2020 before steadily falling ever since. Trump’s 2027 budget includes $1.5 trillion in war spending and only $432.3 billion in public investment. Amounts reflect discretionary funding plus supplemental discretionary funding via reconciliation. Budget function 050 in war category; others minus 700, 750 in public investment. Data: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Research Service.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Trump’s budget proposal didn’t fall from the sky. Where the president wants to take us, we’ve been headed for a while. www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-bud...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

What do you mean “ftfy”, that’s what I argue in the piece you didn’t read.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Not as different as some would expect. Here’s the 2023 enacted budget: www.stephensemler.com/p/only-about...

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Humbly asking @chrismurphyct.bsky.social not to prod Trump into threatening another nuclear holocaust

Murphy: This is an account close to the Iranian leadership. We are now seeing the shape of why Iran agreed so enthusiastically to this "ceasefire".

They will control and toll the Strait for the first time. They keep their nuclear program. They keep their missiles.

What a disaster.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

The Trump-GOP agenda, in two charts www.stephensemler.com/p/big-beauti... www.stephensemler.com/p/trump-prop...

Big Beautiful Bill will leave most households worse off. Projected financial gain or loss, by income group. Bottom quintile, –$24K; 2nd quintile, –$10K; 3rd, –$2K; 4th, +$13K; top, +$50K. Figures show average equivalent variation, the amount a household would need to gain or lose under current policy to be as well off as under the new policy. Data: Penn Wharton Budget Model, July 2025.

Trump wants to spend $1.5 trillion on the military, $260 billion more than at World War Two’s peak. US military spending, constant 2026 dollars. Line graph shows Trump’s 2027 proposal towering above the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Cold War high, and World War II high. Fiscal year 2027 proposal: $1.504 trillion (050 base discretionary + mandatory supplementing base funding). Data: OMB, DOW.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Trump spent $29 billion in the first two weeks of the Iran War. This is a conservative estimate. Full analysis/methodology: www.stephensemler.com/p/us-spends-...

US spends $2.1 billion a day on the Iran War. Estimated US war costs, 28 February–13 March 2026. Table format: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $4.25 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $20.77 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $2.71 billion. Subsidies; Pay for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $1.01 billion. Total; Cost of the first two weeks of the Iran War; $28.74 billion. Average cost per day: $2.05 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author’s analysis of officials’ statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available.

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