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Stephen Spiller

@spillersas.bsky.social
1.1K followers 759 following 81 posts

Professor of Marketing & Behavioral Decision Making at UCLA Anderson. Studies decisions. Has opinions about graphs. Thinks we should say "I don't know" more.

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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The cyclospora outbreak is tailor-made (Taylor-made?) to force careful thinking about evidence. FDA retracts positive test of Taylor Farms lettuce sample. Does that test provide evidence? No! Can we maintain an evidence-based belief Taylor Farms is the source? Yes! www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/w...
nytimes.com
Despite ‘False Positive’ Test, Taylor Farms Is Still Focus of Cyclospora Investigation
The F.D.A. said it was continuing to look into the supplier as a big player in the outbreak.
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
“Widely-Used Measures of Overconfidence Are Confounded With Ability” papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446... Now accepted at Management Science! 🤓📄🧵 1/
Title: Widely-Used Measures of Overconfidence Are Confounded With Ability

Abstract: Measures of overconfidence are used both to assess biases in people's beliefs regarding their own abilities and to identify correlates of those biases. Proposed correlates of overconfidence include narcissism, social status, (low) task anxiety, savings, planning, and many more. Research on these correlates typically explicitly or implicitly claims the associations with overconfidence are not attributable to ability (i.e., latent inputs enabling successful task performance, including inputs that vary across people, states, or contexts). I argue that several typical approaches used to measure overconfidence are not sufficient to support such claims. This argument follows from two underappreciated properties of these measures of overconfidence. First, performance is an imperfect measure of ability: accounting for performance does not sufficiently account for ability. Second, self-evaluations of performance should reflect ability in addition to performance: because performance is ambiguous, people should incorporate prior beliefs about their ability. These properties imply multiple commonly-used measures of overconfidence are confounded with ability. I support these analytical results by reexamining previously-published findings. In the first analysis, I find overconfidence predicts subsequent performance, consistent with measures of overconfidence serving as a signal of ability. In the second set of analyses, I find some purported associations between overconfidence and other constructs could be attributed to ability instead. I close with recommendations to recognize and reduce the potential for mistaken inferences. When research indicates that differences in overconfidence are associated with other behaviors, beliefs, or evaluations, researchers should account for the possibility that differences in ability could provide a sufficient explanation.
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
The Behavioral Lab at the UCLA Anderson School of Management is looking to hire its next Lab Manager! Applications will be reviewed starting April 30th. jobs.ucla.edu/jobs/10354?l...
jobs.ucla.edu
Behavioral Lab Manager in Los Angeles, California | The Regents of the University of California on behalf of their Los Angeles Campus
UCLA is hiring a Behavioral Lab Manager in Los Angeles, California. Review all of the job details and apply today!
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Monstrous acts and crimes are being committed right now, in our names, with our tax dollars: -Renee Good - murdered by an armed agent of the state for protesting -Alex Pretti - murdered by an armed agent of the state for protesting -Liam Ramos (5) - used as bait to lure his father out of the house
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
This guy went to work today, put a mask on, kidnapped a 5 year old child, and then used him as bait so both he and his father could be sent behind bars
A masked ICE officials with a 5 year old child
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Conditional Probabilities Are Hard, Example #1073: WSJ seemingly equates "P(X|Y) is low" (post text) with "P(Y|X) is low" (headline text). (With the nuance that, in this case, both are presumably true, even though one need not imply the other!)
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 18/10/2025
The University of Virginia became the fifth school to rebuff a White House proposal to give universities preferential treatment if they uphold a set of government demands.
nyti.ms
University of Virginia Won’t Join White House’s Compact for Colleges
It was the fifth school in a matter of days to refuse an offer of preferential funding treatment from the government, even as the White House has threatened schools that do not sign up.
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Wahoowa
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
This is what is happening when the cameras are running
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University of California @uofcalifornia.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Do you know anyone that has benefitted from prescription drugs? What if these drugs were not available for you or your loved ones? Cuts to federal science funding mean delays for new treatments and cures. Tell Congress: Science saves lives #SpeakUp4Science bit.ly/4mgBMQ9
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Rachit Dubey @rachitdubey.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
My lab at UCLA is hiring 1-2 PhD students this cycle! Join us to work at the intersection of cognitive science and AI applied to pressing societal challenges like climate change. More info about me: rachit-dubey.github.io My lab: ucla-cocopol.github.io Please help repost/spread the word!
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Matt Gabriele @profgabriele.com · 08/08/2025
this is simply extortion and theft of state monies
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🪾santiago, phd 🐈‍⬛ @santiagokique.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Terence Tao (@teorth.bsky.social) has written a thread on Mastodon about the impact of the federal grant freeze to UCLA, particularly to his own field of Mathematics. UCLA's IPAM (Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics) could shut down entirely mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1149568...
mathstodon.xyz
Terence Tao (@tao@mathstodon.xyz)
The current administration in the US has, through various funding agencies such as the NSF and NIH, has recently suspended virtually all federal grants to my home university, UCLA (including my own p...
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sjdm-tweets @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
The sixth HotFresh recommended paper is: Mirny, D. J., & Spiller, S. A. (2025) Source memory is more accurate for opinions than for facts, Journal of Consumer Research. academic.oup.com/jcr/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Source Memory Is More Accurate for Opinions than for Facts
Abstract. Effective communication relies on consumers remembering, sharing, and applying relevant information. Source memory, the ability to link a claim t
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Melissa Murray @profmmurray.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Kudos to Jim Ryan for a terrific tenure as the President of UVA. Again, this is not normal. We should all be alarmed.
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 14/06/2025
When things get difficult over the next few years remember today. The number of people who want democracy vastly outnumber the people who want a king.
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
In other, joyous news out of Westwood… Congratulations UCLA Anderson grads! Delighted I had the opportunity to announce 7 new Anderson Ph.D.’s, including hooding Dr. David Dolifka! #UCLA2025 #GoBruins
Scene from stage at UCLA Anderson graduation of MBA graduates filing in
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Via "One First," my quick write-up of President Trump's "Presidential Memorandum" purporting to federalize 2000 California National Guard troops; the relevant legal authorities for doing so; and how the move is both a modest *and* dangerous escalation of what's going on in and around Los Angeles:
stevevladeck.com
156. Federalizing the California National Guard
President Trump's Saturday night "memorandum" federalizing 2000 California National Guard troops is a tentative step toward abusing authorities for domestic use of the military, but a dangerous one.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Not to pick on this post, but a good example of why base populations (what group of people you're talking about) are so important, and how easily that detail can get muddled in retelling -- the article says "Nearly a quarter of **consumers using buy now, pay later loans** finance groceries"
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
This is a terrible self-own, particular at a time when we are trying to compete with China on AI, EV technology, etc. Not to mention that this will kill one of our strongest exports (higher ed), which a trade-deficit-obsessed president should theoretically care about.
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump is killing one of our strongest exports
The president wants to balance U.S. trade deficits? He can’t do it without this industry he hates.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Trump team orders stop to new student visa interviews, as it weighs expanding social media vetting www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
politico.com
Trump team orders stop to new student visa interviews, as it weighs expanding social media vetting
The directive came in a Tuesday cable obtained by POLITICO.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 23/05/2025
Hundreds of National Science Foundation staffers turned out for a group photograph to celebrate the besieged agency’s 75th anniversary—despite efforts by NSF officials to prevent the picture from being taken. scim.ag/4jcGpIt
scim.ag
Is a photo subversive? NSF staff overcome obstacles to 75th anniversary portrait
Management tried to quash outpouring of support for beleaguered agency
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Eli Finkel @elijfinkel.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
🎇It's #PubDay for THE HANDBOOK OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY (6e)!🎇 This is the latest edition of the most venerated institution in social psychology, dating back to 1954. Fifty definitive chapters, over 8,000 manuscript pages. (The TOC appears below.) And: IT'S 100% OPEN-ACCESS: www.the-HSP.com.🧵
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
How much of the change in predictions following White Smoke and before announcement is (a) rational market reactions (decision reached fairly quickly; more likely it was a predictable favorite), (b) concluding most-likely-as-more-likely without supporting information, or I guess (c) insider trading?
Graph of Polymarket prices for Pope predictions, showing market changes when White Smoke went up, before pope named
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
On 5/2, the @nytimes.com published a graphic showing the % change for each agency in Trump's proposed budget, compared to the 2025 budget. For my undergraduate class, I made a variant that gives $ amounts. It uses the NYT data. Happy to share w/ other instructors. DM or email if you want the ppt.
graphic showing major cuts to the agencies that help people, advance science, prevent fraud, and protect the environment and major budget gains to Defense and Homeland Security). LH side is in percentage terms, as in NYT article, right hand side is in billions of dollars.
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Steph Smith @stephsmithphd.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
A new and fresh paper calls for a fresh start on a new platform. Hi y'all! 👋 Check out my paper with @spillersas.bsky.social and @krajbichlab.bsky.social - we look at the multi-faceted role of attention in opportunity cost neglect, using eye-tracking + computational modeling. Read more at the link!
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Krajbich Lab @krajbichlab.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
We also find that people look less at the Buy option when there are explicit outside options. Overall, we identify two different attentional mechanisms by which the framing of opportunity costs (i.e., the outside options) impacts people's willingness to make purchases. 3/n
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Krajbich Lab @krajbichlab.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Across surpluses, people consistently purchase less with explicit outside options. Using a variant of the attentional DDM, we estimated separate attention discounts on the Buy and Don't Buy options. We find more discounting of the Buy option with explicit vs implicit costs. 2/n
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Krajbich Lab @krajbichlab.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
New article on the role of attention in opportunity-cost neglect, with the fabulous Steph Smith and @spillersas.bsky.social. Outside options that are explicit (Keep Money) vs implicit (Don't Buy), attract more attention, both gaze and gaze effect on choice. 1/n authors.elsevier.com/c/1kycc_Ebvv...
authors.elsevier.com
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Blake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
I have signed the following letter with 103 of my colleagues from UCLA Law. It is modeled closely on the Harvard Law letter. Solidarity with all other faculty willing to speak out for the rule of law.
sites.google.com
Home
March 31, 2025 As members of the UCLA Law faculty, we are honored to teach and to study the principles of law and constitutional democracy. We are writing to you today in our individual capacities to ...
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
This is *incredible*
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
This came out of @dmirny.bsky.social's outstanding dissertation, and I'm so excited to see it out in the world! (Ungated version here: stephenaspiller.com/assets/Mirny...)
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Daniel Mirny @dmirny.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
In other words, we find that people are more likely to misattribute facts (to incorrect sources) than they are to misattribute opinions… so next time you’re scratching your head, struggling to remember where a claim came from (as I so often am) it may be the claim itself that is to blame 😉
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Daniel Mirny @dmirny.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Encoding processes are important. Faced with new information, we encode associative links between sources and claims. As opinions tend to provide more information about a source than facts do, the encoded associative links are stronger, helping us to later recall who it was that said a given claim.
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Daniel Mirny @dmirny.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
In such a noisy world, it can be difficult to remember who said what. In a new paper at @jcrnews.bsky.social, @spillersas.bsky.social and I find that source memory - the attribution of claims to their original sources - is more accurate for opinions than for facts. academic.oup.com/jcr/advance-...
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Journal of Consumer Research @jcrnews.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Statement on academic freedom, diversity, equity and inclusion at the Journal of Consumer Research: consumerresearcher.com/academic-fre...
consumerresearcher.com
Academic Freedom, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion at the Journal of Consumer Research - Journal of Consumer Research
The Journal of Consumer Research (JCR) is an independent academic journal that remains dedicated to improving academic freedom, diversity, equity,
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Universities: We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
There has to be a better way
Customer service chat. Food order was missing diet coke. Customer service requests picture of order. Replied with picture of empty bag showing absence of can.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
The competitive authoritarian playbook - make vague, illiberal proclamations and try to intimidate people with the possibility of selective prosecution or other forms of punishment
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Gordon McAlpin @gmcalpin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
"Some people say, 'Oh, you're a hero,' " Harrison told NPR in 2015. "But I'm in a safe room, donating blood. They give me a cup of coffee and something to nibble on. And then I just go on my way. … No problem, no hardship." mensch
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More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
This is Trump’s pick to lead the Office of Management and Budget.
Over the last four years, many working class Americans with limited means faced unexpected medical bills, auto repairs & higher grocery bills. One company set up an innovative solution by creating a platform to allow borrowers & lenders to connect for loans at no interest, with borrowers able to tip the lender and also donate to keep the platform going.  Shockingly, the CFPB tried to destroy this company, SoLo, which incurred millions in legal fees and had to lay off 30% of its workforce. It was wrong and we dismissed the case. More to come but the weaponization of "consumer protection" must end.
Followed by community note: SoLo advertised "zero-interest loans," but "almost all of SoLo’s loans carry an equivalent annual percentage rate of over 36% APR, and many loans carry an APR in excess of 300%, with some over 1,000%."
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Sydney Gordon @sydneyg.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
I am sad to share that all Retirement & Disability Research centers have been ordered to stop work. My fellowship will no longer exist, and the work of so many talented researchers and dedicated staff will be cut short. www.ssa.gov/news/press/r...
ssa.gov
Press Release | Press Office | SSA
2025 Press Releases
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Stephen Spiller @spillersas.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Endorse. After reading “The high cost of free parking,” it’s truly impossible to see the built environment in the same way. (According to people around me, apparently it’s also impossible for some of us to shut up about parking in virtually any social interaction)
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