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Matthew Palmer

@so3brocktree.bsky.social
3.2K followers 832 following 1.8K posts

🇬🇧 Former soldier learning how to be a civvie. Accidental journalist. Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. Thoughts & feelings on defence and other things. Views my own. Longer thoughts & feelings on substack: crackingdefence.substack.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Matthew Palmer
Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 06/10/2026
The former boss of Germany's most important intelligence agency, the BND, has been arrested on suspicion of treason.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Is that Сенс на Хрещатику? I bought a book there literally a few days ago!
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Robert Borden Stan Account @bordenstan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Crazy how we deterred ourselves for years with fears of a Russian “escalate to de-escalate” posture (that was always of dubious provenance) without ever internalizing that a willingness to match or raise the stakes of Russian escalation might deter them in the same way.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I have a long list of words in defence and security discourse that I'd like to ban. 'Escalation' is soon to be added to the list, for this very reason. Over-used and an excuse for inaction.
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Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The 7 stages of Western "concern" 1 This is concerning 2 This is increasingly concerning 3 We are now deeply concerned 4 We are now gravely concerned 5 There will be consequences 6 We demand answers 7 It is important not to escalate the situation
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Right, rant incoming. Got through Ukraine - a country at war whose train network is regularly targetted by the Russians - with relatively little drama. Get to Poland and Easyjet cancels our late night flight out. Fuck me, travel through a warzone to get buggered at the last hurdle by Easyjet... 🙃
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Alas...
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Right, rant incoming. Got through Ukraine - a country at war whose train network is regularly targetted by the Russians - with relatively little drama. Get to Poland and Easyjet cancels our late night flight out. Fuck me, travel through a warzone to get buggered at the last hurdle by Easyjet... 🙃
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Good reporting from Odesa here by the FT. Mirrors the conversations I've had over the past week in Kyiv. People are worried about the winter, the economy, and mobilisation.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Good reporting from Odesa here by the FT. Mirrors the conversations I've had over the past week in Kyiv. People are worried about the winter, the economy, and mobilisation.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
In Kyiv, was wondering why the police presence was so heavy this morning and roads were closed off. Turns out that Merz is in town! www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Kyiv bridge hit in further Russian drone attack as German chancellor makes surprise visit
Unverified video shows a drone hitting the Northern Bridge as vehicles move across it, creating a large fireball.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm currently in Kyiv 🇺🇦 Quite different from my first visit. Air raid alerts are constant, and you regularly hear close explosions and anti-aircraft fire throughout the day, even in the centre of the city.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I've also got to meet some extremely interesting and experienced people who have given me a different perspective on the war from the one usually read about in western news. I'll be writing and publishing some findings when I return next week.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm currently in Kyiv 🇺🇦 Quite different from my first visit. Air raid alerts are constant, and you regularly hear close explosions and anti-aircraft fire throughout the day, even in the centre of the city.
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Military Unintelligence Expert 🇨🇦 @voltageanddoltage.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If you ever wonder why modern aircraft are so expensive you should recall that an F-15 and a B-17 aren't too far off dimensionally
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I'm so looking forward to this! Can't wait to see the Eggers take on medieval England.
youtube.com
Werwulf Trailer #2 (2026)
YouTube video by Rotten Tomatoes Trailers
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Good long read from the FT on Britain's lack of resiliency. Unfortunately, completely unsurprising to anyone who has worked in the security-related elements of the public sector.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Good long read from the FT on Britain's lack of resiliency. Unfortunately, completely unsurprising to anyone who has worked in the security-related elements of the public sector.
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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 25/09/2026
That's a huge success for the British cultural industry on the world stage. We should maybe even start considering it a major 21st century British export industry, maybe even get a ministry to oversee it?
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Worth a read for anyone interested in space. The wind-down of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket could cause serious headaches for European space companies, including in the defence space, as there are not many effective alternatives out there at the moment.
ft.com
SpaceX pivots away from space
Starbase, we have a problem
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
As troglodyte barbarians living on a windswept island on the edge of the known world, we have never experienced this new concept of 'hot food', imported from over the Atlantic. I look forward to trying this new-fangled invention.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Worth a read for anyone interested in space. The wind-down of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket could cause serious headaches for European space companies, including in the defence space, as there are not many effective alternatives out there at the moment.
ft.com
SpaceX pivots away from space
Starbase, we have a problem
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Very informative, thanks!
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A question from across the pond - why is Gripen in particular seen as the non-US alternative fighter plane for Canada, as compared to say Eurofighter or Rafale? I've never quite understood the enthusiasm for the Gripen, as I can't see its particular advantages for Canada over other options.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A strong step in the right direction, methinks.
bbc.com
UK to fight Russian disinformation and push new global AI standards, Burnham says
The UK could act as "an honest broker" on AI and other global challenges, the prime minister tells world leaders at the UN.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A strong step in the right direction, methinks.
bbc.com
UK to fight Russian disinformation and push new global AI standards, Burnham says
The UK could act as "an honest broker" on AI and other global challenges, the prime minister tells world leaders at the UN.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I wrote a piece outlining the opportunities and challenges likely to arise as a result of Canada becoming a member of the Joint Expeditionary Force. 🇨🇦 I used to work at the JEF so always interested in the organisation's development.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Surely soon!
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I wrote a piece outlining the opportunities and challenges likely to arise as a result of Canada becoming a member of the Joint Expeditionary Force. 🇨🇦 I used to work at the JEF so always interested in the organisation's development.
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roninresearch.bsky.social @roninresearch.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
@so3brocktree.bsky.social Matthew Palmer On Substack substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
The Severe Vulnerabilities of Today’s British Army
Not a pretty picture
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Had been expected for a while but good to hear it made official - Canada has applied to join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). 🇨🇦 Overall a good move but does come with challenges for the organisation.
cbc.ca
Canada wants into Britain's rapid-response defence club | CBC News
Canada has formally applied to join the United Kingdom's Joint Expeditionary Force, reversing a decision made more than a decade ago. Born from the Afghanistan war and reshaped by Russia's invasion of...
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I used to work at the JEF and wrote a primer on it a while back for those interested: crackingdefence.substack.com/p/we-need-to...
crackingdefence.substack.com
We need to talk about JEF
An example of European Defence by Europeans, for Europeans
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Had been expected for a while but good to hear it made official - Canada has applied to join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). 🇨🇦 Overall a good move but does come with challenges for the organisation.
cbc.ca
Canada wants into Britain's rapid-response defence club | CBC News
Canada has formally applied to join the United Kingdom's Joint Expeditionary Force, reversing a decision made more than a decade ago. Born from the Afghanistan war and reshaped by Russia's invasion of...
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
From my USMC former colleagues, I am led to believe that the correct response to this is to grunt 'Rah' and to invoke the deity that is Chesty Puller.
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Sexy Plato's Cave @andrewblair.co.uk · 16/09/2026
The arts industry in the UK: we contribute so much money to the economy but we are dying, please help Lisa Nandy: Village Parish Council: we held a pretend referendum Lisa Nandy: I'm listening
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
From both personal experience and that of those still serving, I've written a short overview of the serious vulnerabilities faced by the British Army. It doesn't make for optimistic reading.
crackingdefence.substack.com
The Severe Vulnerabilities of Today’s British Army
Not a pretty picture
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
In short: 1) Money (at least a short-term inject) 2) Policy and cultural changes - esp. around risk and contracting. 3) Strategic direction and focus with sustained political support. Its not so much about 'more tanks' as 'what is the Army actually for and what do we want it to do'?
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
From both personal experience and that of those still serving, I've written a short overview of the serious vulnerabilities faced by the British Army. It doesn't make for optimistic reading.
crackingdefence.substack.com
The Severe Vulnerabilities of Today’s British Army
Not a pretty picture
15812
Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Something quite niche that I've kept tabs on for years - the status of Russian forces in Syria. There has been a sizeable drawdown since 2024, but the Russians are still there. It looks like Tartus has been finally handed back to the Syrian government, but Russian military forces can still it.
english.enabbaladi.net
Russian Warships Return to Tartus Port After Handover - Enab Baladi
Russian Navy vessels have returned to Tartus Port on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, in a move that contrasts with an earlier […]
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James @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
It can only good happen. It can only good happen. It can only good happen. It can only good happen. It can only good happen. othermeans.substack.com/p/the-wheels...
othermeans.substack.com
The Wheels Are Coming Off
It Can Only Good Happen
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Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Anthropic, OpenAI and co have underpinned a major capex spree with macroeconomic repercussions. Are they calling time on it over safety fears? Or is this concealing a business model malfunction? If you fear you've invested into a bubble, creating a cartel is one obvious way to limit your losses.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Never underestimate the Houthis. Also, the fact that an Iraqi militia hit the Saudis is a reminder that Iraq remains contested - the Popular Mobilisation Forces are not going away any time soon.
ft.com
Saudi Arabia shuts East-West pipeline that bypasses Hormuz after attacks
Move is likely to put further momentum behind fast-rising oil prices
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Citizens is great fun and very much written in Schama's voice, if not in line with modern historiography. Max Hastings' Catastrophe similar - not uber-academic, but a good popular history. I would avoid the Gladwell book on the Bomber Mafia, it has been savaged by historians for its inaccuracies.
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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Never underestimate the Houthis. Also, the fact that an Iraqi militia hit the Saudis is a reminder that Iraq remains contested - the Popular Mobilisation Forces are not going away any time soon.
ft.com
Saudi Arabia shuts East-West pipeline that bypasses Hormuz after attacks
Move is likely to put further momentum behind fast-rising oil prices
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Kate from Kharkiv @kateinkharkiv.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I’m simply too exhausted to try to keep myself safe. I need my sleep. ​Isn't it surreal how even bombings become routine? How an entire generation of kids has grown up for whom explosions are just a normal part of their day? How we all forgotten what a quiet sky feels like?
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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
NEW INVESTIGATION – this summer saw temperature records smashed around the UK. We asked NHS trusts in England and Wales how many operations they were forced to cancel due to overheating surgical theatres They provided details of 1,110 operations that were called off in the May and June heatwaves
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Annalisa Nicholson @apuddleofmuddle.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It's just weird isn't it when the British Museum is running a sold-out exhibition, when The Odyssey reports $1billion at the box office, when the V&A has just opened the most innovative and accessible museum model in Europe....and this is what our minister for research comes out with.
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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 11/09/2026
Productivity is rocketing www.ft.com/content/8310...
ft.com
Houthis used Anthropic AI to try to build ballistic missiles
Missile test by group apparently failed, but exposes limits of AI safeguards
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