Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 01/10/2026‼️ Russian Railways September 2026 Loading Update Thread Things have gotten worse, and Russian Railways is back on track to have worse loading than in 2009 if they don’t speed up. Also check out data on 👉 Oil & Oil Products Note: Full data tables are provided in the thread. 1233169
Reposted by SeyyonRobin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026We're now getting the usual dynamic when the Euro zone blows up. As yields for high-debt places like France and Italy head off into the stratosphere, yields for low-debt safe havens like Germany, Sweden and Switzerland are falling. The Euro zone is broken... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c... 1153
Reposted by Seyyonmonstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Infiltration Mechanics - Days of suffering, compressed into seconds 0166
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026This is a great thread. Very enjoyable to read. Thank you for writing it. 020
Reposted by Seyyonleoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Technical documentation & reference thread on Russian budget financing. This will be boring for 99.99% of people, but it will be useful evidence for later. Here is a table with OFZ bond auction results published by Russia's MinFin. Source: minfin.gov.ru/en/policy_is... 1226
Reposted by SeyyonUkraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Ukraine struck 2 gas complexes in Yamalo Nenets Autonomous Okrug, over 3,000km from Ukraine. 🤯 The two facilities are deeply involved in gas processing in Russia. 2547
Reposted by SeyyonChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 04/09/202610/ Some countries are even benefitting from the war, such as India – which is selling back to Russia Indian-produced gasoline refined from Russian-exported oil, at a big mark-up – and China, which has effectively made Russia a dependent subordinate power. 1933
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 01/09/2026This enormous fund holds bonds too right? Keeping them well funded is also good debt management. 000
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Doesn't the forward curve being higher indicate that it's better to be profligate and loose now before borrowing costs get much worse? There's no light at the end of the tunnel. 000
Reposted by SeyyonSwissDataGuy @swissdataguy.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Russia money supply growth just flipped. 2024-25: M2 (savings/term deposits) grew fastest as the CBR key rate hit 20% --> people chased high deposit yields. 2026: key rate cut to 14%, and now M0 (cash) +18.5% YoY beats M2 +13.2%. Deposits lost their edge. 2153
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Also for fun, here’s a graph of some of that bond curve data. 2271
Reposted by SeyyonChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 23/08/20267/ For 2026, the revenue from the fee was forecast to rise to almost 1.65 trillion rubles ($19.7 billion), a 46.7% increase. However, in the seven months up to the end of July 2026, the Russian treasury has only collected 309.2 billion rubles ($3.7 billion). 2813
Reposted by SeyyonJanis Kluge @jakluge.de · 20/08/2026Here is another chart on Russian household assets (excluding businesses). Both transferable deposits and ruble cash increased from a year ago. 2396
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Do you have another source for this auction? The usual channels haven't reported it. I wasn't able to find this auction on the ministry of finance website. 060
Reposted by SeyyonJanis Kluge @jakluge.de · 20/08/2026Some clarification on "Russians are withdrawing cash" - below you see cash in circulation (blue line). True, it has increased. But when you check deposits (green line), they have also increased. Russians are not withdrawing their money. The share of cash remained mostly the same. 25810
Reposted by SeyyonUkraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 16/08/2026The Koledino Wildberries warehouse—the second largest in the company—burns out of control 🔥 4729
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Good point about ruble devaluation. The wealth fund must be in two minds about this. They could chance the stock exchange and try to revive fortunes there or patiently sit on valuable foreign currency whilst the economy sinks further. 110
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Do you think that they'll sell all those shares to the NWF if they cannot sell to the market? I wonder if the government will take that offer. Capital must be raised either way however. 120
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 12/08/2026‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update As of August 2026: The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds: 👉 189.6833 Billion Yuan (-0.1105 billion) 👉 141.2417 tons of gold (+0.1589 tons) 👉 0 Billion Rubles (0 billion) (Totals for July) Ultimately not much changed, it was just moved around 411421
Reposted by SeyyonJanis Kluge @jakluge.de · 03/08/2026Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos... 620257
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 03/08/2026I was never able to square the prisoner army with these sorts of headlines www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/12/r... How does one empty prisons of inmates and still face a shortage of staff to man those prisons? Surely there's a surplus of staff if inmates are shipped off to the Donbass?themoscowtimes.comRussia’s Prison Service Faces Staffing Crisis as Shortages Top 30%, Officials Say - The Moscow TimesRussia’s prison service is grappling with a deepening staffing shortage, with tens of thousands of positions unfilled last year, highlighting mounting personnel problems across the country’s law enfor... 110
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 03/08/2026Great thread thank you for writing it. This RUSI article from Jan gives pause for thought www.rusi.org/explore-our-... The attentional cost on the Russian military is very severe but it isn't uniform across all branches of the military. Some branches are arguably more powerful than before the warrusi.orgThe Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power ThreatsRussian and, particularly, Chinese capabilities now pose greater threats to Western air power than in 2020. 010
Reposted by Seyyonleoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/07/20263\ Countries are not directly analogous to people: but if I were to draw parallels: Russia has *almost* run down their savings and retirement accounts. They've cancelled important maintenance on their house & car: things like replacing electrical panels, waterproofing and changing the brakes. 171
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Total gold reserves are quite flat though. If the wealth fund sold 260 tons of gold since the war began but total reserves didn't move much, I think that means the central bank bought that gold from the fund. tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-...tradingeconomics.com Russia Gold Reserves Gold Reserves in Russia decreased to 2304.75 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 from 2326.52 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2025. This page provides - Russia Gold Reserves - actual values, historica... 011
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 31/07/2026Reuters says yes "The foreign currency and gold held on behalf of the NWF are accounted for as part of the central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves, which stood at almost $720 billion, including the frozen assets, with the share of gold at over 41%" www.reuters.com/business/fin...reuters.comRussia's central bank says its operations with gold are increasingThe Russian central bank said on Wednesday that its sales and purchases of gold in the domestic market for the budget reserve, the National Wealth Fund (NWF), have been increasing in recent years due ... 000
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 31/07/2026It's 22 tonnes which is the amount of gold that was sold from the wealth fund this year The gold in the fund likely stays put in the same central bank vault but money moves from the central bank to the government. I don't think that the central bank has sold any of its gold throughout the war. 120
Reposted by SeyyonJanis Kluge @jakluge.de · 28/07/2026I analyzed dozens of reports from Russian municipalities and found a lot of fascinating insights about how Russian recruitment actually works. At the core, the recruitment machine is a multilayered system of quotas, going all the way from the Kremlin down to the smallest village. 713636
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 21/07/2026It's Russia's version of QE. The CBR doesn't trust the value of pledged assets to hold for longer than a week. 110
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 21/07/2026They failed to sell floating rate bonds last Wednesday. www.interfax.ru/business/110...interfax.ruАукцион по размещению ОФЗ 29028 признан несостоявшимсяМинфин 15 июля признал несостоявшимся аукцион по размещению ОФЗ-ПК серии 29028 в связи с отсутствием заявок по приемлемым уровням цен, сообщило ведомство 000
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 20/07/2026‼️ Russia: “The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation hereby announces the suspension of auctions for the placement of OFZs to facilitate the stabilization of debt market conditions. Information regarding the resumption of OFZ placement auctions will be communicated in due course.” 816824
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 13/07/2026The bank can't sell a lot quickly if it wanted to. Gold turnover is small, albeit growing. It's about double what it was yoy. www.moex.com/s867moex.com 100
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 12/07/2026It is also not easy to sell what is left because demand for CNY is weak (strong ruble) 110
Reposted by SeyyonStanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/07/2026Russian oil and gas revenues for H1 2026 dropped 22,7% vs 2025 to reach 3,66 trillion rubles. Non oil and gas revenues rose 16,3% to 14,96 trillion rubles. The Russian federal budget deficit for H1 2026 was 5,731 trillion rubles or 2,345 trillion rubles higher than in H1 2025. 26210
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 08/07/2026Export raw to import refined. Just as SoH blocks again and diesel price spikes. Downwards pressure on the ruble is otw, but how big will it be? And is Elvira allowed to increase rates? 000
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 07/07/2026‼️ Russia: “Russian businesses are sinking deeper into debt—and increasingly failing to pay them off.” 👉 “Overdue corporate liabilities have grown by almost 20% in a year, reaching a record 7 trillion rubles, according to Rosstat data” iz.ru/2128132/olga... 414826
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Thank you for shining a spotlight on this, what a great thread! 060
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 03/07/2026‼️ Russia: “Queues at Russian gas stations are now visible from space.” ⛽️ ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/03/o... 611918
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Is that an admission that VTB plans to risk its own balance sheet chancing the moex? Hmm 🤔 100
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 30/06/2026Could be big. Russia isn't a small country ;) Does RZD have the ability to bring back the coal powered steam train or are most of their rolling stock fitted with diesel engines? 110
Reposted by SeyyonJanis Kluge @jakluge.de · 28/06/2026Russia doesn't have access to China's domestic capital market, so the RU government only attracts yuan from Russian exporters on the (rather small) Russian yuan market. It won't play a major role going forward. 291
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 27/06/2026Another thing that is different this time is where central bank interest rates are. Last time they were confident of rate cuts. Borrowing at 21% to lock in 16% for 10 years makes sense if the central bank rate is below 16% for most of it. Now they demand a premium for the opposite reason. 030
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 25/06/2026This is a pretty insightful comment. That Russia's non-borrowing options have an implied interest rate of pain. Interesting to think about. To extend the thought, continuing to wage the war has a comparatively lower interest rate versus the implied cost of peace. 110
Reposted by SeyyonPrune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 23/06/2026‼️ Russia: “By April, Russians' and companies' tax arrears reached a record 4 trillion rubles, an increase of approximately one-third compared to the same period last year” 🍿 iz.ru/2119968/mila... 617021
Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Detach the cowling As they didn't say in the Battle of Britain 000
