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Seyyon

@seyyon.bsky.social
16 followers 12 following 251 posts

Amateur observer of Russia's war economy. Interested in banks. Pun intended.

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Reposted by Seyyon
Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Oil & Oil Products Graph
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
‼️ Russian Railways September 2026 Loading Update Thread Things have gotten worse, and Russian Railways is back on track to have worse loading than in 2009 if they don’t speed up. Also check out data on 👉 Oil & Oil Products Note: Full data tables are provided in the thread.
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
We're now getting the usual dynamic when the Euro zone blows up. As yields for high-debt places like France and Italy head off into the stratosphere, yields for low-debt safe havens like Germany, Sweden and Switzerland are falling. The Euro zone is broken... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...
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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Infiltration Mechanics - Days of suffering, compressed into seconds
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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Technical documentation & reference thread on Russian budget financing. This will be boring for 99.99% of people, but it will be useful evidence for later. Here is a table with OFZ bond auction results published by Russia's MinFin. Source: minfin.gov.ru/en/policy_is...
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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Ukraine struck 2 gas complexes in Yamalo Nenets Autonomous Okrug, over 3,000km from Ukraine. 🤯 The two facilities are deeply involved in gas processing in Russia.
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
10/ Some countries are even benefitting from the war, such as India – which is selling back to Russia Indian-produced gasoline refined from Russian-exported oil, at a big mark-up – and China, which has effectively made Russia a dependent subordinate power.
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SwissDataGuy @swissdataguy.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Russia money supply growth just flipped. 2024-25: M2 (savings/term deposits) grew fastest as the CBR key rate hit 20% --> people chased high deposit yields. 2026: key rate cut to 14%, and now M0 (cash) +18.5% YoY beats M2 +13.2%. Deposits lost their edge.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Also for fun, here’s a graph of some of that bond curve data.
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
7/ For 2026, the revenue from the fee was forecast to rise to almost 1.65 trillion rubles ($19.7 billion), a 46.7% increase. However, in the seven months up to the end of July 2026, the Russian treasury has only collected 309.2 billion rubles ($3.7 billion).
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 20/08/2026
Here is another chart on Russian household assets (excluding businesses). Both transferable deposits and ruble cash increased from a year ago.
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 20/08/2026
Some clarification on "Russians are withdrawing cash" - below you see cash in circulation (blue line). True, it has increased. But when you check deposits (green line), they have also increased. Russians are not withdrawing their money. The share of cash remained mostly the same.
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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The Koledino Wildberries warehouse—the second largest in the company—burns out of control 🔥
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update As of August 2026: The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds: 👉 189.6833 Billion Yuan (-0.1105 billion) 👉 141.2417 tons of gold (+0.1589 tons) 👉 0 Billion Rubles (0 billion) (Totals for July) Ultimately not much changed, it was just moved around
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 03/08/2026
Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos...
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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
3\ Countries are not directly analogous to people: but if I were to draw parallels: Russia has *almost* run down their savings and retirement accounts. They've cancelled important maintenance on their house & car: things like replacing electrical panels, waterproofing and changing the brakes.
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 28/07/2026
I analyzed dozens of reports from Russian municipalities and found a lot of fascinating insights about how Russian recruitment actually works. At the core, the recruitment machine is a multilayered system of quotas, going all the way from the Kremlin down to the smallest village.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
‼️ Russia: “The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation hereby announces the suspension of auctions for the placement of OFZs to facilitate the stabilization of debt market conditions. Information regarding the resumption of OFZ placement auctions will be communicated in due course.”
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Russian oil and gas revenues for H1 2026 dropped 22,7% vs 2025 to reach 3,66 trillion rubles. Non oil and gas revenues rose 16,3% to 14,96 trillion rubles. The Russian federal budget deficit for H1 2026 was 5,731 trillion rubles or 2,345 trillion rubles higher than in H1 2025.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
‼️ Russia: “Russian businesses are sinking deeper into debt—and increasingly failing to pay them off.” 👉 “Overdue corporate liabilities have grown by almost 20% in a year, reaching a record 7 trillion rubles, according to Rosstat data” iz.ru/2128132/olga...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
‼️ Russia: “Queues at Russian gas stations are now visible from space.” ⛽️ ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/03/o...
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 28/06/2026
Russia doesn't have access to China's domestic capital market, so the RU government only attracts yuan from Russian exporters on the (rather small) Russian yuan market. It won't play a major role going forward.
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Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
🤣
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
‼️ Russia: “By April, Russians' and companies' tax arrears reached a record 4 trillion rubles, an increase of approximately one-third compared to the same period last year” 🍿 iz.ru/2119968/mila...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
For the sale of Yuzhuralzoloto, the price dropped from 👉 162.02 billion rubles To 👉 93.16 billion rubles The minimum threshold was 👉 81 billion rubles
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 19/06/2026
Ukrainian drones are impacting Russian monetary policy: Because of rising gasoline prices, Central Bank chief Nabiullina could only lower interest rates by 0.25%, less than expected and hoped for by Russian business.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
‼️ Russia: “Peskov called the situation in the Russian banking sector absolutely stable and under control.” 👀 www.interfax.ru/business/109...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
‼️Russia: “Major insurance companies have begun offering coverage for military risks, including drone debris, blast waves, and air defense systems, as part of their personal property insurance policies.” 🇷🇺: 15% extra for drones! www.kommersant.ru/doc/8712262
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
‼️ Russia: “The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance warned Putin that the economy would not withstand a continuation of the war.” According to reporting from Bloomberg It sounds like there’s some drama! ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/01/t...
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🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 @specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
🇸🇪🇺🇦 Ukraine and Sweden signed an agreement on Gripen fighter jets during a joint press conference in Uppsala! The agreement includes enabling the procurement of up to 20 Gripen E/F fighters using EU-backed funding, while Sweden also donates 16 Gripen C/D aircraft as direct military assistance.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
‼️ Russia: “VTB's Supervisory Board recommended paying dividends for 2025 in the amount of 9.71 rubles per share and conducting an additional share issue.” 🤨 IT’S ONLY BEEN NINE DAYS SINCE WE HEARD THERE “WERE NO PLANS”! ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/26/n...
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The Russian government tried everything it could to sell Yuzhuralzoloto at the second auction, it wrote off a 17 billion ruble debt to the previous owner from whom they nationalized the company, it instituted a dutch auction for half the price. Still no valid bids.
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The hedgehog @the-hedgehog.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
"The first medical battalion carried out a successful evacuation of a wounded Ukrainian assault soldier thanks to the NRK with an armored capsule. During the operation, the vehicle detonated on a mine twice. Despite the explosions, the armored capsule protected the wounded soldier from the debris."
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
"Liz Truss"-style bond market blow-ups, where the currency falls sharply, are becoming more common in the G10. The US had such a blow-up in April 2025 after the reciprocal tariff roll-out and Japan has been in such a blow-up going on two years now... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/liz-truss-...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
‼️ Russia: “Russian authorities failed to sell the state-owned stake in the nationalized gold miner Yuzhuralzoloto (UGK) at the first auction due to a lack of bidders” *sad 🪊* ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/18/r...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
‼️ Russia: “The auction for the Moscow Towers skyscraper in Moscow City, owned by Russian Railways, failed due to a lack of bids.” 🚂 www.kommersant.ru/doc/8671762
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Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
VAT looks good actually. The federal budget is healthier than I expected.
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Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
😂 www.president.gov.ua/documents/37...
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Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
35.5 tonnes in a month. Small but growing. Interest in uninteresting gold is ticking up. Same with uninteresting cash...
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
‼️ Russian Railways April 2026 Loading Update Thread Things look…weird. Note: Full data tables are provided in the thread.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
‼️ Russia: “Banks are still in no rush to radically lower market mortgage rates, despite regular cuts to the key rate.” But they will lower the rates on deposits! 🇷🇺: Why do people keep pulling their money out of banks? www.kommersant.ru/doc/8634389
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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
AFU hit Su34 and Su57 It can be the first ever 5th gen plane loss
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
‼️ Russia: “VTB's market capitalization doubled after converting preferred shares” I’ve got some useful statistics from a couple articles to share. www.kommersant.ru/doc/8633457
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
19/ "The passive and apathetic majority will live within a limited information field (with "whitelists"). The active minority, also the most inquisitive and innovative, will seek various methods to circumvent the bans, including leaving the digital concentration camp.
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Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
‼️ Russia: “Putin's aide announced the return of a planned economy.” 👉 Maxim Oreshkin 🇷🇺: What could possibly go wrong? ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/26/p...
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
5/ Iran is aided in this by the shallow depth of the Strait, which forces tankers to follow two narrow shipping lanes a short distance north of the Omani island of Didamar. This is said to have been mined by the Iranians, forcing ships to detour further north into Iranian waters.
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Here's the result of the Russian debt auctions for Q1 2026 in graphs:
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Foreign flows into the US are at eye-watering levels. There never was a "sell America" trade and there's no "Hedge America" trade either. Markets ignore much of the political volatility and continue to see the US as the single best growth story out there... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-happe...
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
JD Vance is heading to the US and is ready to offer his assistance to any candidates back home.
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Seyyon @seyyon.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Non-core firesale. That's one way to meet capital requirements
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