leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 5hRepublicans cut aid to save Putin from having to negotiate. Republicans disarmed Ukrainians to make more of them die and to preserve Russia's army. That's why there are no negotiations yet. 180
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 12hHere are some of the numbers for Russian budget revenues. A simple equation is used to say "how much will they get in 2026, based on what they got in Jan-Aug and if the monthly patterns followed those from 2025?" The biggest single thing is domestic VAT: +33% growth worth +3.5tr rub vs 2025. 1102
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialMark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 23hThe US has withdrawn from GRECO, the Council of Europe’s anti-corruption watchdog, which it has been a member of since 2000, ABC reports. Russia and Belarus are the only other countries to have left the group. 51605309
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialSven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 18hrussian shift to its long-range strike doctrine toward faster, jet-powered UAVs like the Geran-4 and Geran-5 is clearly visible in inteception rate. Equipped with Chinese Telefly turbojets, these systems hit cruise speeds of 450–600 km/h drastically compressing Ukrainian air-defense reaction times 🧵 25510
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialNOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 18hUkrainian tanks are again moving to frontline firing positions and engaging Russian positions with direct fire. The 475th Code 9.2 Regiment says reconnaissance and aerial cover coordinated with UAV operators allow the armored vehicles to operate despite the drone threat. #Ukraine 1040859
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 15hMoscow Times: Russia's 2026 UPDATED budget plan, filling in some numbers that were missing from Western reporting: 👉Expenses: 48.6tr rub 👉Revenues: 41.2tr rub 👉Deficit: 7.3tr rub Differences of +/-0.1tr from rounding. This budget looks vaguely realistic, but covering the funding isn't explained.ru.themoscowtimes.comМинфин повысил оценку дефицита бюджета РФ в 26г до 3,2% ВВП, потратит часть ФНБ и нарастит займы 3142
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 16hRussia tried to borrow money at a debt auction today. Investors turned up and made lending offers. Russia said there was an "absence the acceptable level of prices in these bids." Auction failed 😂 Russia agreed to pay 16.44%/year last week so I wonder how bad things were this week. 0173
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Woohoo I think we hit a record today. 16.90%/year yield on 10-year russian debt. This means it's more expensive for Russia to borrow, and they need a lot of money. I think there's evidence they are doing tricks to try and hide this too. 1364
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialSven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Difference between russian claimes and Ukrainian reality. This is getting orbits level apart. And only one side is supported by evidence. This is very good for us! Map by @monstars.bsky.social 28010
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialThe hedgehog @the-hedgehog.bsky.social · 29/09/2026"Russian “Rubicon” published a video-confirmed list of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs for September. ..Approximate list of the TOP UAVs we use that are deployed at the front: 🟢 FP-2 strike UAV 🟢 “Maya” decoy drone 🟢 Hornet strike UAV 🟢 Darts strike UAV 🟢 “Baton” strike UAV The decoy is in 2nd place" 0234
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Good news, another terrorist weapon is down. 0162
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 29/09/2026As prune says, wait for official docs. I guessed the same +1tr rub domestic borrowing, but technically Russia has some other options. We're currently guessing from Stoke ambiguously worded numbers, the full tables should be out soon. 0110
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 29/09/2026If I interpreted the Reuters reporting correctly, then Russia's latest budget plan requires raising about 170bn rub per week from borrowing, from now on. Let's use this as the reference point to judge how well they're doing at upcoming OFZ bond auctions. 1172
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Brief thread explaining details behind some of Reuters' reporting on Russia's new budget. An important number is the +27% increase in war spending in 2027. But that doesn't include some war spending because Russian budget accounting is weird. So here's some context + what I'll look for.reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents showRussia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defence in 2027, around 27% more than the 13.5 trillion roubles originally budgeted and the highest figure since the start of the war... 1152
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialMaria Drutska @mariadrutska.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Another horrific night for Kyiv. Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital again, with strikes reported across several districts. In the Solomianskyi district, missile debris fell into the courtyard of a residential building. 512041
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 28/09/202628/9/26: Russian 10-year debt yield up to 16.75%/year. Tomorrow they announce Wednesday bond offerings. Reuters reporting today suggests they're planning to double the 2026 deficit, so they need cash. Higher yields = Investors will give Russia less money per bond. Recent trends are good. 0171
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Reuters claims to have seen new Russian budget docs for 2026-2028. Interesting numbers, but important context is missing. 👉 2027 war spending up from 13.5tr to 17.1tr rub 👉 2026 planned expenses increased from 44.1tr to 48.6tr rub 👉 2026 oil&gas revenue forecast dropped from 8.9tr to 7.6tr rub 2120
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Invest in Russia, get what you deserve. 0160
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Ukraine claims 2,090 Russian KIA+WIA total yesterday. Ukrainian Officer Alex: "Today, near Dobropillia alone, the enemy suffered 150 dead (each one confirmed)...that's only counting those killed along a 40-kilometer front" Russia is pushing hard. t.me/officer_33/7...t.meОфіцерСьогодні на Добропільському напрямку противник лише безповоротно втратив 150 одиниць живої сили(зафіксовано кожне), концентруючи свої зусилля на спробах прориву до міста. Це лише вбитими і лише на 40 ... 2333
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Russia is trying to reduce aid to Ukraine. If every terrorist attack results in more support to Ukraine, they will stop. Failing to increase support to Ukraine and whining about how "next time we'll get really serious" makes Russia escalate. This is Germany begging for more attacks on its soil. 1111
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialDennis P. Crawford @dennispcrawford.bsky.social · 27/09/2026The legacy media has failed the country for decades. They backed Bush's push for war in Iraq and sabotaged Hillary's 2016 campaign by obsessing on the phony email issue. The establishment media went overboard on Biden's age and have largely given Trump a free pass on his age and declining health. 16615
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Republican whines because he's failed to force a victory (yet) for the dictatorship over the democracy. Republicans cut aid, making Ukrainians die and saving Putin's war machine. After preventing peace, they're trying to force the democracy to give up. 0101
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialWarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Analyst @clementmolin.bsky.social says Russia’s official front maps overshoot reality by about 5,000 sq km. In 2026, he says, Russia barely moved in Ukraine but still enlarged its claims, and many Russian Telegram channels updated their maps too. 428437
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Follow @swissdataguy.bsky.social if this is interesting to you. IMO some of the most useful & best presented early reporting on how Russian oil exports are doing. 0184
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Why does this matter? Russia incinerated 292bn rub this year & ~226bn last year. But this will never appear on the most-visible public numbers, feeding pro-Russian narratives of fiscal strength. I'll explain why I think this is an accounting trick to preserve appearances. 2154
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 26/09/2026My quoted post is wrong. It appears that Russia cancelled ~518bn rub of regional debt by Aug 2026 under a program that began in 2025. The breakdown is roughly: 👉~227bn in 2025 👉~292bn in 2026 Thanks @zauberberg.bsky.social for nudging me to check this. 1110
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Russia's current budget plan says they will cut expenses over Sep-Dec. For 1st-24th September: 👉 2025 expenses = 1915bn rub 👉 2026 expenses = 2323bn rub Monthly expenses up by +20% so far in September, compared with 2025. 0180
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Just found this August article; Russia cancelled 518bn rub in regional debt Jan-Aug 2026. They say it's to free up money for regional spending on the war. The regions have to pay a lot for bonuses, social benefits etc for invaders and their families.finrosa.ruДоклад Министра финансов Антона Силуанова на заседании Совета при Президенте Российской Федерации по стратегическому развитию и национальным проектамУважаемый Владимир Владимирович, уважаемые коллеги! Исполнение бюджетов регионов в текущем году осуществляется в плановом порядке. С начала года доходы региональных бюджетов выросли на 6% и сос 080
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/09/2026The Republicans are trying to force through some kind of Russian victory. Framing it as "negotiations" is just like pretending that Russia's unprovoked war of aggression is a "special operation to protect human rights". Please don't adopt pro-dictatorship branding. 0121
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialSven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 25/09/20261673 days ago. 1215120
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialThe hedgehog @the-hedgehog.bsky.social · 25/09/2026"Perm, more footage. In addition to the fire at PNOS, a tire service shop is also burning — the column of smoke to the left" 0456
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Moscow Times: "The authorities have made the most popular preferential mortgage inaccessible to most families". Russia subsidises mortgages to prop up the construction industry, costing about ~5% of the federal budget last year. This means less generous support for construction.ru.themoscowtimes.comВласти сделали самую популярную льготную ипотеку недоступной для большинства семей - Русская служба The Moscow Times 0151
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Russia's public announcements about their federal deficits. Published Nov 2025: 2026 deficit will be 3.8tr rub, 2027 deficit will be 3.2tr rub. Published now: 2026 deficit will be 5.9tr rub, 2027 deficit will be 5.5tr rub. Russia has consistently blown past its budget promises.interfax.ruДоходы бюджета-2027 ожидаются на уровне 43,3 трлн рублей, расходы - 48,8 трлн рублейПравительство ожидает рост доходов федерального бюджета с 43,3 трлн рублей в 2027 году до 48,4 трлн рублей в 2029 году, сообщил на заседании премьер-министр 1221
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Russia announced new tax rises today. Government is playing a bigger role in the economy. Consolidated gov spending up from 34.6% of GDP In 2021 to 40.9% of GDP in 2026 (so far). Government revenues, excluding oil & gas, up from 28.8% to 33.3%. Consolidated=federal+regional+social funds. 1142
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 24/09/20261/ Russia has the United States over a (diesel) barrel, says Russian analyst Igor Dimitriev. He says that the Kremlin is telling the West that "if you don't hand Ukraine over to us, a global [fuel] crisis will erupt that you won't be able to dig yourselves out of". ⬇️ 1626173
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 24/09/2026These are lies, and helping Russia by cutting aid to Ukraine will be far, far more expensive in future. RN are just another pro-dictatorship, pro-Russia party like the Republicans. This is Putin's path to victory - Republicans, RN etc are why there is no negotiation and peace. 0160
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 24/09/202609/09/2026, right before "elections" from Putin's spokesman Peskov: "There is no talk of tax increases in Russia" 24/09/2026, right after "elections": "hello Russians, here are lots of tax increases". Interesting: they've picked less-visible taxes so Russians won't "feel" being drained as much. 37412
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialAnders Puck Nielsen @anderspucknielsen.dk · 23/09/2026The debate in Denmark about this deal is whether the US got anything at all, or if it's all just a reconfirmation of things that were already established. It says something about how little Trump has achieved when people can't even identify the new stuff with certainty. 1018424
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialHalf-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026All those (mostly American) security and international relations experts who rabbitted on about the CIA bloke's surprise trip to Moscow being so he could have stern words with Putin about this, that and/or the other, when instead the US is on a sustained campaign to normalize Russia * 181
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Today's data confirmed my calcs work, evidence in reply. Russia's financial situation worsened so their bond yields went up. This has wiped AT LEAST 400bn rub off the value of bonds they have in stock. Effectively, 400bn+ rub less deficit funding is possible, vs their likely original plan. 1172
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Let's see how I did! Russia sold: 👉OFZ-PD 26249 at 16.14%. I calc'd "what if" for 16.1% and 16.2%: results agree. 👉OFZ-PD 26253 at 16.44%. I calc'd "what if" for 16.4% and 16.5%: results agree. I've cracked this aspect of Russian finance rules. Receipts below. 2173
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Russia refuses to negotiate because they see support for Ukraine dropping so they think they'll get more from fighting. If it weren't for Republicans cutting aid,, and they'd have no such hope. The republicans being elected saved Putin's war. 1165
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026This is how you negotiate with Russia. Europe has tried begging Russia to please stop being evil. Ukraine has hit hundreds of Russian ships in the Black & Azov seas. Ukraine's approach will get Russia to consider offers, and worst case = Russia has less money so can afford fewer attacks. 0121
Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.socialNOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 23/09/2026Russia’s strikes on Kyiv are aimed at terrorizing Ukrainian society and pressuring Ukraine toward capitulation, Ukrainian Volunteer Army spokesman Serhii Bratchuk argues. He said strikes on civilian sites have no military justification and noted the attack coincided with the UN General Assembly. 120236
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026As Russia's government debt and finance costs have grown, their own cash pile and investment income has shrunk. I estimate their investment income is down over 200bn rub so far this year vs 2025. Lower interest rates and they have less cash left to invest = smaller finance income 2245
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026This is me seeing if I have understood how Russian bond pricing vs yields vs cashflow works. We don't know the auction results. But they will announce the "weighted average yield". Below I've tried to predict the average prices they'll report for yields from 15-17%. Accuracy near ~0.1% is goal. 191
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Please share the post below and donate if you can. These excavators save so many Ukrainian lives at a very efficient cost. 15614
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Very clear understanding from Kaja Kallas. Russia is attacking Europe to impose costs and undermine support for Ukraine. If Europe responds to Russian terror by explicitly increasing support to Ukraine each time, the attacks stop. 0204
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Look at the blue "signed a contract" part. I believe these people, or some of them, qualify for the federal recruitment bonus and get counted as "new recruits" in many estimates. We need to subtract these people from estimated Russian new recruitment, to know Russia's actual force size change. 1140
leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Jesus Christ, can we stop just reporting the messaging of lying liars. Republicans cut aid to Ukraine to save the Russian army, make Ukrainians die and save the war. They acted to prolong the war, prevent peace, and save the dictatorship's aggression. This is crucial context. 0123
