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Sebastian van Baalen

@sebastianvanbaalen.se
4.5K followers 973 following 296 posts

Associate Professor at the Dep. of Peace & Conflict Research, Uppsala University (@uupeace.bsky.social). Researching dynamics of civil war, rebel governance, civil resistance, electoral violence, postwar violence, Côte d’Ivoire. www.sebastianvanbaalen.se

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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
UppsalaPeaceConflict @uupeace.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
🎙️ @sebastianvanbaalen.se and his team are conducting the most extensive study of election boycotts to date. In a new podcast episode, we discuss why political parties or candidates choose to drop out of elections and what they hope to achieve by doing so. Listen: www.podbean.com/eas/pb-m8txn...
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Gilles Colling @gilles-colling.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Publication-ready causal diagrams from R — that fills a real gap. Most people end up in TikZ or drawing tools for DAGs. Having it in one package means the diagram stays in sync with the analysis code. Congrats on the CRAN release!
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 03/04/2026
Glad to hear that you find it useful!
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 19/03/2026
📦 Happy to announce that the causalplot R package for making publication-ready causal diagrams is now available on CRAN. It now also includes an app version that can be launched through R Studio and requires no coding. github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com
GitHub - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot: Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function
Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
🙏 Thanks to everyone who has supported our work over the years, especially @davidlandestrom.bsky.social Tor Richardson-Golinski, @golafs.bsky.social @nilsweidmann.bsky.social David Randahl @maxineleis.bsky.social Juan Diego Duque-Salazar @kathleenklaus.bsky.social
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
📦 We also developed the accompanying 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 R package for diagnosing, visualizing, and aggregating event report-level data in a transparent and reproducible way. 🔗 github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com
GitHub - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot: Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function
Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
Our new @isq-jrnl.bsky.social article builds on the event-report approach by @nilsweidmann.bsky.social & Espen Geelmuyden Rød, develops three ideal-type aggregation models, and shows why aggregation choices matter for substantive findings.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
📈 In parallel, we also developed new methodological tools for collecting and analyzing event data on political violence. 🔗 doi.org/10.1093/isq/...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
Explore and download the data via our open-access dashboard: 🔗 sebvanbaalen.shinyapps.io/maverick_das...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
Its granular data on actors and violence patterns makes it useful for developing and testing nuanced theories of electoral violence. One finding: police involvement is associated with less intense electoral violence, while paramilitary police involvement is associated with more serious violence.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
📊 A key output is 𝗠𝗔𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗞: a new disaggregated, georeferenced dataset on electoral violence in Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya, published in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social 𝗠𝗔𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗞 contains 2,200 unique events based on 3,287 event reports in 1992–2022. doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/03/2026
🆕 Together with @krishogl.bsky.social, I’m excited to share several new outputs from our joint research project on the actors of electoral violence. 🧵 A thread... #polisky #conflictsky
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Leonore (Lee) Carpenter @leecarpenter.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Yes everything is terrible but let’s not lose sight of the fact that someone has written the Headline to End All Headlines.
A headline reading “Camel pageant thrown into chaos after 20 competitors disqualified for using hump-plumping injectables”
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 13/02/2026
📦 Happy to share (an updated version) of the 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁 R package for making causal diagrams using a simple convenience function. The package features a range of pre-defined and customizable templates, now also for the classic 2x2 typology. Suggestions welcome! #rstats 🔗 github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com
GitHub - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot: Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function
Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
TraCe @trace-center.de · 30/01/2026
Intrastate armed conflicts have increasingly internationalized. In TraCe Working Paper No. 7, Frederik Schissler, @felixbethke.bsky.social, @hannapfeifer.bsky.social, Constantin Ruhe, @reginesonja.bsky.social & Jonas Wolff systematically assess this trend. 👉 www.trace-center.de/publikatione...
Cover TraCe Working Paper No. 7
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 14/01/2026
📨 If you have suggestions or requests, feel free to reach out here or submit an issue on GitHub.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 14/01/2026
🛠️ The package is still under development, and I’d be very happy to hear from people who might want: • additional templates • small usability improvements • features tailored to teaching or publication workflows
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 14/01/2026
📊 The idea is simple: instead of spending time fighting with Word shapes or TikZ, you choose a template (e.g. single or multi-step mechanisms, parallel pathways, moderators, confounders), add your variable labels, and get a consistent causal process plot.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 14/01/2026
📦 I got tired of constantly battling TikZ or Word for decent causal diagrams, so decided to do something about it. Here is a first public version of 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁, an R package for creating clean, publication-ready causal diagrams with minimal effort. #rstats github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com
GitHub - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot: Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function
Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Giulia Piccolino @giuliapiccolino.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Important piece from @yguichaoua.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social. As someone who is wondering whether she should continue to teach "International conflict management" rename the class "conflict making" or eliminate it, I'd like to offer a friendly critique. 1/11 dissentmagazine.org/article/the-...
dissentmagazine.org
The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine
An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 13/01/2026
As a CRS member this sounds like an excellent idea! Perhaps a round table on the topic would be a good idea?
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 11/11/2025
Looks very useful! Thank you 😊
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Paul Campbell @paulc91.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Developed a new #RStats package to access sub-national boundary spatial data (UN OCHA COD and geoBoundaries datasets) from the excellent fieldmaps project. Using #DuckDB and #geoarrow to efficiently query remote parquet and convert to sf #RSpatial #GIS github.com/epicentre-ms...
github.com
GitHub - epicentre-msf/fieldmaps: R Interface to Fieldmaps Data
R Interface to Fieldmaps Data. Contribute to epicentre-msf/fieldmaps development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 24/09/2025
Excellent text by Henrique Garbino on why leaving the Ottawa convention is a bad idea! ⤵️ theloop.ecpr.eu/are-landmine...
theloop.ecpr.eu
Are landmines legitimate self-defence? The folly of leaving the Ottawa Convention
The Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines is under serious challenge. In 2025, six state parties — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Ukraine — began the procedure to withdra...
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Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Christoph Harig @charig.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
This is absurd. But to be honest, we all should have left academia.edu ages ago because of their spamming. Their "AI-generated professional podcasts" of papers are another very good reason to delete your account. Good riddance!
Picture of AI generated podcast of a paper I had uploaded on academia.edu
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Laia Balcells @laiabalcells.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
New publication alert: "Legacies of Repression and Resistance in Early 20th Century Europe", at Comparative Political Studies. With @andrearuggeri.bsky.social and @apvjustino.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Legacies of Repression and Resistance in Early 20th Century Europe - Andrea Ruggeri, Laia Balcells, Patricia Justino, 2025
Authoritarian and violent experiences affect the institutional settings of post-dictatorial regimes. However, we still lack a comprehensive knowledge on how loc...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 25/08/2025
Extra fun to see this article out in the world as I've had the privilege to follow its progression as a writing mentor for the author 🙌 Congratulations @maureenfubara.bsky.social 🎉
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 25/08/2025
🆕 Excited to see this article by @maureenfubara.bsky.social out. Drawing on 100+ interviews across Nigerian states, she shows how access to rents shapes whether leaders rely on armed groups or ordinary citizens for perpetrating electoral violence. doi.org/10.1177/0022...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Allard Duursma @allardduursma.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Armed conflicts involve governments, rebel groups, militias, communal factions, and foreign forces — all interacting in complex ways. The result? A web of violence that can feel overwhelming to understand. That's why we launch the Conflict Networks Explorer peaceobservatory.com/conflict-networks
peaceobservatory.com
Peace Observatory
Peace observatory website.
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Alexandre Raffoul @awraffoul.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
My article "Unstable Concepts, Unresolved Controversies" was attributed to an issue. It explores how conceptual issues emerged as consociationalism and centripetalism were brought together under the label power-sharing – and proposes ways to address these issues. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Unstable Concepts, Unresolved Controversies: Reassembling Power-Sharing, Consociationalism, and Centripetalism
After half a century of research, the literature on institutional design for ethnic conflict management is still in search of a scientific consensus. This article argues that underlying conceptual ...
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Kate Lonergan @katelonergan.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
🆕 📣 Making my BlueSky debut to share some exciting news: the first solo-authored publication from my PhD dissertation, published last week 🔓 open access in @gsqjournal.bsky.social: academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic... A thread 🧵:
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 17/08/2025
Really cool work out by @andresuribe.bsky.social and colleauges on estimating the prevalence of criminal governance in Latin America ⤵️
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Steve Rosenzweig @scrosenzweig.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Now out: new article w/ @niloufersiddiqui.bsky.social - "Conceptualizing Election-Related Violence" - takes stock of the rapidly growing literature on election violence, identifying points of agreement and disagreement across studies on how the concept is defined and disaggregated into sub-types.
doi.org
Conceptualizing Election-Related Violence
Electoral violence has become an increasingly common manifestation of political violence around the globe. Reflecting the growing significance of this form of violence, there has been a sharp rise ...
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 14/12/2023
it's wild that R, the ubiquitous statistical computing language, was co-created by a Māori prof (Ross Ihaka) — and yet the vast majority of scientists who use R don't know this is like inventing the toaster. possibly the largest impact of a single member of an indigenous community on modern science
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/07/2025
Done! You are in the Part II
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Merriam-Webster @merriam-webster.com · 07/07/2025
'Vacations.' The word is 'vacations.'

FAST COMPANY Article: 

While retirement typically occurs, after
completing a career and saving and investing for it, a new trend is emerging among Gen Z career professionals
called "micro-retirement." Micro-
retirements involve taking a one to two- week break from work every 12 to 18 months.
Gen Z is using micro-retirement to avoid burnout, find greater fulfillment in their work, and enhance their overall well-being. However, it's not just Gen-Z:
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
New study by @matthewcebul.bsky.social & J. Pinckney asks “How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups?” Surveys across 30+ countries find “alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion…” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments - Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney, 2025
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, whic...
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Emma Elfversson @emmaelfversson.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
How does rapid urban growth affect the risk of electoral violence in African cities? In a new article (open access in World Development), I find that cities growing more rapidly were at higher risk of electoral violence. doi.org/10.1016/j.wo... (1/9)
doi.org
Redirecting
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Kolbjörn Guwallius @kolbjorn.se · 17/05/2025
Joakim Medin: ”Jag är ännu mer motiverad att fortsätta bevaka auktoritära krafter, hur sådana makthavare fungerar. … Jag har i många år skrivit om hur mänskliga rättigheter kränks och det här gör mig bara ännu mer övertygad om att det är fortsatt viktigt.”
etc.se
Joakim Medins första ord hemma: ”Trycket över bröstet försvann så fort vi lättade från marken”
”Egentligen skulle jag ha varit i Polen för att skriva om det viktiga presidentvalet i helgen. Men det sket sig.”
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 14/05/2025
This new article on rebel leader training and the duration of civil wars by @tappeortiz.bsky.social in Journal of Peace Research looks very interesting! ⤵️ journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Trained to rebel: Rebel leaders’ military training and the dynamics of civil conflicts - Juliana Tappe Ortiz, 2025
Rebel leaders can prolong civil wars. Although past research has examined how rebel groups have shaped civil wars, little attention has been paid to rebel leade...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 07/05/2025
🔈 Very enlightening interview with @chenoweth.bsky.social on civil resistance against the Trump administration. Both a great primer on civil resistance research and a good analysis of the current challenges and opportunities! ⤵️ podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/w...
podcasts.apple.com
Protests, Political Violence and Its Alternatives with Erica Chenoweth
Poddavsnitt · Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes Podcast · 2025-05-06 · 58 min
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PEN International @peninternational.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
PEN Sweden (@pensweden.bsky.social) member Joakim Medin stands trial in Ankara tomorrow on spurious ‘insult to the president’ grounds. We urge #Türkiye to drop all charges and to release him immediately. Read more ➡️ www.pen-international.org/news/trkiye-... @etc.se
pen-international.org
Türkiye: Free PEN member Joakim Medin  — PEN International | Promoting Literature & Defending Freedom of Expression Worldwide
‘By prosecuting Joakim Medin, a Swedish national, the authorities of Türkiye are clearly seeking to muzzle the foreign press and intimidate all journalists into silence. We urge the authorities to end...
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 29/04/2025
Several people injured in Uppsala after reports of gunfire, police say
theguardian.com
Several people injured in Uppsala after reports of gunfire, police say
Police say people ‘have been found with injuries that indicate gunfire’ after loud bangs heard in Swedish city Swedish police said on Tuesday that several people in the city of Uppsala in eastern Sweden had been found with injuries that indicated gunfire after loud bangs were heard in the city. The police said in a statement that they had received calls from members of the public who said they had heard noise that sounded like gunfire in the centre of the city. Continue reading...
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 27/04/2025
Liverpool FC ❤️❤️❤️
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Kolbjörn Guwallius @kolbjorn.se · 17/04/2025
I dag har Joakim suttit fängslad av den auktoritära turkiska regimen i tre veckor på diffusa, fabricerade anklagelser. Hans fall är redan på väg in i medieskugga och Sverige gör för lite offentligt. Turkiet har klarat av den inledande fasen då kritiken var som starkast och kan nu sitta stilla.
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Erik Angner @erikangner.com · 10/04/2025
The Swedish gov't claim to welcome foreign academics. But their actual policy is Trump-inspired: a poorly justified war on "woke," bizarre attacks on specific curricula, capricious cancellations of research funding, attacks on the independence of the universities, and regressive migration rules.
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 09/04/2025
Looks super cool! Congratulations 🎉🎉🎉
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 09/04/2025
🆕 This looks like a very interesting new study of interest to anyone studying electoral violence or democratic backsliding ⤵️
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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 08/04/2025
🎉 🎇 Congratulations to Promise Frank Ejiofor, winner of the Conflict Research Society's Cedric Smith Prize, for his paper “Gendercide and Terrorism Studies.” 🔗 Read the full announcement here: conflictresearchsociety.org/promise-fran...
conflictresearchsociety.org
Promise Frank Ejiofor wins the Cedric Smith Prize 2025 - CRS
Promise Frank Ejiofor wins the Cedric Smith Prize 2025 CRS
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 07/04/2025
This is a fantastic list of papers on properly dealing with control variables (and other related methodological issues) in social science (and #polisky specifically)! I put it all in a public Zotero group library here www.zotero.org/groups/59433...
zotero.org
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